The Ukraine War

[Crewton]

"Welcome to Russia, citizens of Zaporizhzhia..... ." 

The war crimes keep racking up. 

[Highgate]

11 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

That seems almost too conclusive, like it was fixed. Surely 75ish% would be a bit more realistic? Maybe it's a double bluff?

I'm just impressed that they went to the effort of actually gathering up some votes and putting them ballot boxes.  For whose benefit was that bit of theatre?  I wonder did anyone actually have to count them....or did they just decide on the percentages beforehand.  75% would have been more realistic I suppose but if they had announced that all 4 regions had voted 112% in favour of annexation...would the situation be any more absurd than it already is?  

[Ram-Alf]

4 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I'm just impressed that they went to the effort of actually gathering up some votes and putting them ballot boxes.  For whose benefit was that bit of theatre?  I wonder did anyone actually have to count them....or did they just decide on the percentages beforehand.  75% would have been more realistic I suppose but if they had announced that all 4 regions had voted 112% in favour of annexation...would the situation be any more absurd than it already is?  

I saw a clip online/TV where a woman with a large plastic see through box draped over her shoulder stopped 2 women in the street and asked for their votes, No ID, No knocking on their doors, Just put your TICK here.

I'm sure all was legitimate ? 

[BucksRam]

2 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

I saw a clip online/TV where a woman with a large plastic see through box draped over her shoulder stopped 2 women in the street and asked for their votes, No ID, No knocking on their doors, Just put your TICK here.

I'm sure all was legitimate ? 

Seen a few similar ones on Twitter, not least armed soldiers knocking on your door, asking for your vote, but completing the ballot sheet on your behalf where obviously you can't see which box he's ticking.  If you were standing in a doorway with your wife and kids behind you, with a Russian soldier pointing his gun at you, telling you to vote,  how would you respond? But of course, I'm sure such stories are all made up and it was conducted democratically and fairly......

[Ramarena]

12 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I'm just impressed that they went to the effort of actually gathering up some votes and putting them ballot boxes.  For whose benefit was that bit of theatre?  I wonder did anyone actually have to count them....or did they just decide on the percentages beforehand.  75% would have been more realistic I suppose but if they had announced that all 4 regions had voted 112% in favour of annexation...would the situation be any more absurd than it already is?  

To be fair I’m sure there are people in those areas that would vote to join Russia of their own free will, that’s not in dispute.

What’s in dispute is how many, it’s certainly nowhere near the ridiculous 90 percent figures.

[Highgate]

11 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

To be fair I’m sure there are people in those areas that would vote to join Russia of their own free will, that’s not in dispute.

What’s in dispute is how many, it’s certainly nowhere near the ridiculous 90 percent figures.

No doubt about that, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk apparently.  And after the war, when the refugees have returned to their homes, there is every reason to think that internationally monitored referendums would be good idea for the Donbas and maybe even Crimea too. 

But these referendums shouldn't have been carried out now, nor should they have been conducted in the manner they were and no referendum that seeks international legitimacy, should ever be overseen by Russia alone.  Not by this Russian regime anyway. 

[Alph]

Previous referendums have been held in Donbass. And not during the chaos of all out war. They weren't recognised my most the world. So why during full scale war do they go to the trouble of doing such nonsense? 

I think he's gone a bit far to be worrying about justifying his actions. 

[Ramarena]

5 minutes ago, Highgate said:

No doubt about that, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk apparently.  And after the war, when the refugees have returned to their homes, there is every reason to think that internationally monitored referendums would be good idea for the Donbas and maybe even Crimea too. 

But these referendums shouldn't have been carried out now, nor should they have been conducted in the manner they were and no referendum that seeks international legitimacy, should ever be overseen by Russia alone.  Not by this Russian regime anyway. 

Not sure how referendums can be carried out, even if hostilities cease.

The damage has already been done and whichever side “wins” you’ll have infighting from those that didn’t. You risk creating a Iraq style militia based conflict, where the territory is constantly disputed despite a legitimate referendum. 

The only solution I see (and it’s not much of a solution, but best of a bad bunch of options) is Ukraine returned to its pre-invasion territories followed by an amnesty period, where citizens who want to join Russia can go live there and Ukraine allows passage through its border which would need to be independently monitored for the duration of the amnesty.

After that Ukraine would put up a heavily militarised border to try and prevent future Russian aggression/imperialism.

[Ramarena]

15 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Previous referendums have been held in Donbass. And not during the chaos of all out war. They weren't recognised my most the world. So why during full scale war do they go to the trouble of doing such nonsense? 

I think he's gone a bit far to be worrying about justifying his actions. 

 

I think the answer is in the numbers. It’s a pee take!

No sensible person would buy into a 97% referendum result in a disputed territory, I wouldn’t even buy it if was held in Moscow pre-invasion!

It’s a show of contempt.

[Alph]

3 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Not sure how referendums can be carried out, even if hostilities cease.

The damage has already been done and whichever side “wins” you’ll have infighting from those that didn’t. You risk creating a Iraq style militia based conflict, where the territory is constantly disputed despite a legitimate referendum. 

The only solution I see (and it’s not much of a solution, but best of a bad bunch of options) is Ukraine returned to its pre-invasion territories followed by an amnesty period, where citizens who want to join Russia can go live there and Ukraine allows passage through its border which would need to be independently monitored for the duration of the amnesty.

After that Ukraine would put up a heavily militarised border to try and prevent future Russian aggression/imperialism.

I think the chance has passed now. Russia would never see any monitoring as "independent" and neither would the West. 

It also wouldn't allow a strong military presence in Ukraine. Not after the whole war for them has been demilitarise and denazify. 

I only see it ending with Ukraine giving up Donetsk and Luhansk. And then we spend the years after the ceasefire with the same sort of issues in other regions that happened in Crimea and Donbass in the last decade. 

To ignore the referendums held in 2014(?) was the only time I think this could have resolved it peacefully. Maybe it wouldn't but I just think it's past that stage now. 

[Tamworthram]

39 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Previous referendums have been held in Donbass. And not during the chaos of all out war. They weren't recognised my most the world. So why during full scale war do they go to the trouble of doing such nonsense? 

I think he's gone a bit far to be worrying about justifying his actions. 

 

If you're talking about the 2014 referendums, weren't these also carried put in areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists/militia with no external or independent monitoring? In which case, I'm not sure they were any more valid than this one. 

 

[Ram-Alf]

1 hour ago, BucksRam said:

Seen a few similar ones on Twitter, not least armed soldiers knocking on your door, asking for your vote, but completing the ballot sheet on your behalf where obviously you can't see which box he's ticking.  If you were standing in a doorway with your wife and kids behind you, with a Russian soldier pointing his gun at you, telling you to vote,  how would you respond? But of course, I'm sure such stories are all made up and it was conducted democratically and fairly......

After depositing a new arrival in my boxers, I'd say...hello I've already voted Yes, Waiting on the response, It would be something like this, OK I'll tick "Yes" for you then when I get back check your ballot and if you're telling me the truth...we'll throw the ballot away ?

[Alph]

30 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

If you're talking about the 2014 referendums, weren't these also carried put in areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists/militia with no external or independent monitoring? In which case, I'm not sure they were any more valid than this one. 

 

Yeah. I'm not sure how they were carried out. I think Ukrainians also did one in 2014 in contested areas. 

I was really just making the point that if referendums weren't the answer in 2014 then certainly don't think it's going to be the answer in the near future. 

I don't see how Ukraine can hope to keep/gain Donetsk and Luhansk. 

At best they give it up and are left vulnerable to future disruption on "new" borders. At worst the areas remain disputed for years with skirmishes, terror attacks and high crime rates making it the most dangerous place in Europe. 

Ukraine has no options. It has no allies. It won't be allowed strength to patrol its new borders. They're in an impossible position and have to keep fighting. 

Putin can't stop. So if nobody stops Putin from within Russia then this war is nowhere near the begining of the end

[Tamworthram]

8 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Yeah. I'm not sure how they were carried out. I think Ukrainians also did one in 2014 in contested areas. 

I was really just making the point that if referendums weren't the answer in 2014 then certainly don't think it's going to be the answer in the near future. 

I don't see how Ukraine can hope to keep/gain Donetsk and Luhansk. 

At best they give it up and are left vulnerable to future disruption on "new" borders. At worst the areas remain disputed for years with skirmishes, terror attacks and high crime rates making it the most dangerous place in Europe. 

Ukraine has no options. It has no allies. It won't be allowed strength to patrol its new borders. They're in an impossible position and have to keep fighting. 

Putin can't stop. So if nobody stops Putin from within Russia then this war is nowhere near the begining of the end

What do you mean Ukraine has no allies? If that was the case then Russia would have won the war long ago.

It’s difficult to see how this will end. Ukraine will probably continue to fight whilst ever it has support from the West and, I would imagine, would only agree to the future of the regions in question being decided by referendums if Russia withdrew first, previous residents who had been forced to leave were allowed to vote and the voting was overseen by an independent party. I can’t see how Russia could agree to any such proposal now that they have annexed the regions.

[Alph]

4 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

What do you mean Ukraine has no allies? If that was the case then Russia would have won the war long ago.

It’s difficult to see how this will end. Ukraine will probably continue to fight whilst ever it has support from the West and, I would imagine, would only agree to the future of the regions in question being decided by referendums if Russia withdrew first, previous residents who had been forced to leave were allowed to vote and the voting was overseen by an independent party. I can’t see how Russia could agree to any such proposal now that they have annexed the regions.

I mean allies willing to step in and defend the country, push Russia back and secure the region. 

They have cheerleaders and a few of those would sooner this all blow over so they can get that Russian energy. 

And they have a Russia's enemies sending them what they need to fight Russia. But they're doing all the fighting and dying. For all the "Stand with Ukraine" it's more like "we back Ukraine"

I think Zelensky said as much but he understands the reasons nobody can help. They're not in our alliance.

In the coming months we'll all be concerned about the cost of living and internal politics and Ukraine will be a headache that we throw money at so they can weaken Russia. Some nations will distance themselves from the whole affair as they try to loophole through sanctions and send brown envelopes to Moscow. 

[Ramarena]

41 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I mean allies willing to step in and defend the country, push Russia back and secure the region. 

They have cheerleaders and a few of those would sooner this all blow over so they can get that Russian energy. 

And they have a Russia's enemies sending them what they need to fight Russia. But they're doing all the fighting and dying. For all the "Stand with Ukraine" it's more like "we back Ukraine"

I think Zelensky said as much but he understands the reasons nobody can help. They're not in our alliance.

In the coming months we'll all be concerned about the cost of living and internal politics and Ukraine will be a headache that we throw money at so they can weaken Russia. Some nations will distance themselves from the whole affair as they try to loophole through sanctions and send brown envelopes to Moscow. 

I’m not sure I agree with this, as it doesn’t factor in Russia’s very fragile position.

Like Ukraine the Russian economy is in dire straights, but unlike Ukraine they need to fund an army that’s lost a huge amount of their best soldiers and hardware, they also have wide ranging commitments (think Syria and just patrolling Russias borders).

Things are so desperate they are calling up 100’s of thousands of veterans and civilians handing them weapons and throwing them into the front with hardly any training and leaving them as effectively cannon fodder, all of this whilst winter approaches. There are protests in many regions which could well get worse if the mobilsation leads to large numbers of deaths.

Add in the estimates of 200k to 400k people escaping to neighboring countries and a country with a huge demographic problem, just made its problems ten times worse. 

You’ve also got multiple oligarchs and powerful higher ups being found dead and being passed off as suicides.  

It’s a recipe for disaster and that’s before we get onto the problems in its border regions that are igniting, primarily Armenia and Azerbaijan, but tensions are building in other areas as well, due to the power vacuum.

Its certainly not cut and dried, Ukraine has plenty of momentum and support, a good amount of which will endure.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Ramarena
Missed a word

[Tamworthram]

36 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I mean allies willing to step in and defend the country, push Russia back and secure the region. 

They have cheerleaders and a few of those would sooner this all blow over so they can get that Russian energy. 

And they have a Russia's enemies sending them what they need to fight Russia. But they're doing all the fighting and dying. For all the "Stand with Ukraine" it's more like "we back Ukraine"

I think Zelensky said as much but he understands the reasons nobody can help. They're not in our alliance.

In the coming months we'll all be concerned about the cost of living and internal politics and Ukraine will be a headache that we throw money at so they can weaken Russia. Some nations will distance themselves from the whole affair as they try to loophole through sanctions and send brown envelopes to Moscow. 

They say "my enemies enemy is my friend" and whilst they can't put troops on the ground, I think there is no doubt that Ukraine has allies that are helping them. As I said, without that support (financial, military equipment etc) I'm sure Russia will have won long ago.

I agree that how long that support will continue must be in doubt but, at this moment in time the support is there whether we call it stand with or back Ukraine.

I wonder if Russia is either struggling more than we think or don't expect the West's support to dissipate soon enough. Otherwise they could have just waited longer with the current stalemate rather than organise these sham referendums that will not only give Russia the excuse but also the need to escalate the conflict further. 

[Ram-Alf]

Winter is a stones throw away, It's going to effect Russia the most, As in weapons and men/women, The west will struggle to heat their homes, The wests politicians will say this is little to what the Ukrainians are having to deal with.

The armed forces Russia sends will desert ASAP, Freezing temperatures, Lack of the right equipment, Food and medicines in short supply, Ukrainians are dying by the 1000s, But we're being told they'll fight to the end.

The End ?‍♀️ 

[Ramarena]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-any-attack-annexed-territory-will-be-an-attack-russia-2022-09-30/?utm_source=reddit.com
 

Like clockwork.

The only difference in this interview, is them saying they will push forwards to liberate more of the areas that Ukraine has liberated.

[Alph]

I hope you chaps right. But I think Putin's life may depend on this war. So maybe unrest will become so much that someone removes him by force?

But how can he de-escalate and explain that so many Russians were sent to their deaths for territories that remain disputed?  Surely nobody is buying this claim that they made.

How can he remain in power spending countless hundreds of millions on this war to have achieved so little. 

All he has achieved is showing Russian incompetence and making sure the Ruble plummets.

You're right about it taking a toll on Russia of course. Somebody said earlier in the thread that this could be their Vietnam. 

I just don't see how Putin can withdraw. He's surely not in the same position as two American Presidents able to scurry away with damaged pride about a war going bad on the other side of the globe.