Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: But less 'significant' than the number of people catching Covid in hospital. Again, we have no numbers to work on here, so I'll leave it until you have a source. 11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: What conspiracy theories are they? Claiming they combined figures for a single chart to 'spread fear', etc. 11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: The fact that you think there is no question over anything that comes out of China shows a certain naivety. I did suggest there were questions about the initial figures. Are you suggesting that China has secondly been having a massive second wave without anyone noticing? 11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Are all of these denser countries global hubs? If not, they are not a good comparison. Define 'global hubs'. In terms of international travel, yes, these countries do meet the definition, all having huge amounts of international travel. Singapore: Yes. Korea: Yes. Hong Kong: Yes. Taiwan: Yes. 11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: They also said they could not calculate the figure...only to release it less than 2 weeks later. You clearly are finding that too complicated to understand. They never said they couldn't calculate the figure, they said they would be unable to fulfil the request. They stated that this was because it would require them to create the analysis for the request at the time, and doing so was not required by the act. Again, I'm actually surprised you find that concept so challenging to grasp. It's not hard, it says it right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, BaaLocks said: They're not saying that though, are they? They're saying the rate stays the same from June to September, which seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe would help to read what is printed before you start suggesting anyone is pushing 'flat out lies'. The graph puts them on the same axes, on the same scale, and I don't see them anywhere on that page suggesting they're saying otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Albert said: The graph puts them on the same axes, on the same scale, and I don't see them anywhere on that page suggesting they're saying otherwise. Because they're not - they are comparing flu deaths to Covid deaths in the same time period, which is why the scale is the same. Which is why it is not a lie, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Albert said: Again, we have no numbers to work on here, so I'll leave it until you have a source. Well you can see another poster has said that they believe it is 12.5% so even ignoring my 23% (which I did say could be wrong) do you now accept it could be significant? Especially in relation to the 394 flu deaths recorded in the first 8 months of the year? Claiming they combined figures for a single chart to 'spread fear', etc. Not really a conspiracy theory, if you actually lived over here you would be fully aware that the Government are using fear as of their main weapons. I did suggest there were questions about the initial figures. Are you suggesting that China has secondly been having a massive second wave without anyone noticing? No idea, dont know what goes on in China but I'm guessing you do. Define 'global hubs'. In terms of international travel, yes, these countries do meet the definition, all having huge amounts of international travel. Singapore: Yes. Korea: Yes. Hong Kong: Yes. Taiwan: Yes. Fair enough. They never said they couldn't calculate the figure, they said they would be unable to fulfil the request. They stated that this was because it would require them to create the analysis for the request at the time, and doing so was not required by the act. Again, I'm actually surprised you find that concept so challenging to grasp. It's not hard, it says it right there. And yet did the calculation in less than 2 weeks. I'm also surprised that you are finding it so hard to grasp that they said they would be unable to provide figures but then did so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, Albert said: That there have been clear strategies put in place to control the situation, which have achieved control, even dealing with significant unforeseen events that made such challenges. That's not to say all the governments within the country have done that well, but they have achieved a Covid normal of sorts for the majority of the country. Places like America come to mind, where somehow it has become a political issue and there have been protests against lockdowns for a longtime. PARA ONE: Do you honestly believe that? You honestly believe that initial lockdown, track and trace, furlough, regional lockdown, testing, funding allocation, PPE allocation, vaccine research collaboration, schools, universities and ongoing comms have all been competent and have achieved control? You really believe that? PARA TWO: Hard to comment on the true size and scale of lockdown protests as I don't work or live in the US but are you suggesting it's not a political issue here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, BaaLocks said: Because they're not - they are comparing flu deaths to Covid deaths in the same time period, which is why the scale is the same. Which is why it is not a lie, Actually, no, you're right, I've misinterpreted their scale on my glance from before. They're doing deaths per months on the ONS figures (without stating such). It was the figure for deaths that threw me, and I should have known better, my mistake. That said, it is still a very poor representation of the data, focusing on June through now, to sell an idea that the flu and pneumonia are causing more deaths overall. The same ONS dataset however puts it as 48,168 due to Covid, 13,619 due to pneumonia and 394 due to the flu for the entire year up to the end of August. They're then passing off those monthly figures as 'the flu' with the title (literally FLU v COVID DEATHS), despite the flu causing a tiny fraction of the deaths in question. The other interesting point when comparing this with the ONS data is that it makes the very important point that while Covid is far more dangerous for older people, so is the risk associated with pneumonia and the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Well you can see another poster has said that they believe it is 12.5% so even ignoring my 23% (which I did say could be wrong) do you now accept it could be significant? Especially in relation to the 394 flu deaths recorded in the first 8 months of the year? Again, I would like to see some actual data. 14 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Not really a conspiracy theory, if you actually lived over here you would be fully aware that the Government are using fear as of their main weapons. It's literally a conspiracy theory. Just because you feel it could be real doesn't change what it is. 14 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: No idea, dont know what goes on in China but I'm guessing you do. So... you're questioning China, then saying you're not actually questioning China? 14 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: And yet did the calculation in less than 2 weeks. I'm also surprised that you are finding it so hard to grasp that they said they would be unable to provide figures but then did so quickly. Yes, because they do releases of such data. The point of the email you put up was that they're not required to under freedom of information, not that they couldn't do it. Really, how is that a hard concept to grasp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, BaaLocks said: PARA ONE: Do you honestly believe that? You honestly believe that initial lockdown, track and trace, furlough, regional lockdown, testing, funding allocation, PPE allocation, vaccine research collaboration, schools, universities and ongoing comms have all been competent and have achieved control? You really believe that? In Australia? More or less. 15 minutes ago, BaaLocks said: PARA TWO: Hard to comment on the true size and scale of lockdown protests as I don't work or live in the US but are you suggesting it's not a political issue here? In the UK, it seems to be going down that path too. Thankfully, in Australia it has managed to stay a largely apolitical issue. You get some copycats overhere that try to do American style protests, but they've all fallen flat on their faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Albert said: Again, I would like to see some actual data. It's literally a conspiracy theory. Just because you feel it could be real doesn't change what it is. So... you're questioning China, then saying you're not actually questioning China? Yes, because they do releases of such data. The point of the email you put up was that they're not required to under freedom of information, not that they couldn't do it. Really, how is that a hard concept to grasp? https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/first-uk-estimate-of-the-number-of-covid-19-patients-infected-whilst-in-hospital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i-Ram Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 North/South divide at play with this Second Wave. The steady drain of talent from the North to the South over the last 20/30 years has greatly depleted the gene pool of those who remain. @Angry RamDo you have big keepnet I can borrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Albert said: Actually, no, you're right, I've misinterpreted their scale on my glance from before. They're doing deaths per months on the ONS figures (without stating such). It was the figure for deaths that threw me, and I should have known better, my mistake. That said, it is still a very poor representation of the data, focusing on June through now, to sell an idea that the flu and pneumonia are causing more deaths overall. The same ONS dataset however puts it as 48,168 due to Covid, 13,619 due to pneumonia and 394 due to the flu for the entire year up to the end of August. They're then passing off those monthly figures as 'the flu' with the title (literally FLU v COVID DEATHS), despite the flu causing a tiny fraction of the deaths in question. The other interesting point when comparing this with the ONS data is that it makes the very important point that while Covid is far more dangerous for older people, so is the risk associated with pneumonia and the flu. @BaaLocksCan either of you explain the graph to me. it looks like flu and pneumonia deaths in sept is >1k and cv19 c.250 is that not how I am supposed to read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spanish said: @BaaLocksCan either of you explain the graph to me. it looks like flu and pneumonia deaths in sept is >1k and cv19 c.250 is that not how I am supposed to read it? No that’s not right. Go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020 This is reliable and explain the figures and how they work them out. The press are being quite naughty in the way they are misleading people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, TexasRam said: Couldn’t care less about our political standing or Covid response vs OZ. It means nothing The families of 50k dead people may disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Spanish said: @BaaLocksCan either of you explain the graph to me. it looks like flu and pneumonia deaths in sept is >1k and cv19 c.250 is that not how I am supposed to read it? What it's showing is that when you combine the flu and pneumonia (which can be approximated as just pneumonia) have been the cause of more deaths since mid-June, which is true. The figures are in deaths per month from what I can tell, but they're not labelled as such. The figures you quote off the graph are what they mean, kind of, but it cuts off right as the numbers are ramping up again, ie mid September. The government figure for September was 642, but the ONS figure would be higher, as they don't use the 28 days definition. The last 30 days has had 1211 deaths officially recorded as Covid, so it's a bit out of date. 15 minutes ago, jimmyp said: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/first-uk-estimate-of-the-number-of-covid-19-patients-infected-whilst-in-hospital Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Albert said: Again, I would like to see some actual data. Why? You've been told the figure, what is seeing it written down required for? It's literally a conspiracy theory. Just because you feel it could be real doesn't change what it is. So everything you say is fact and any opposing view is just a conspiracy theory? As I said you dont live here so cant really comment on what we are living through. So... you're questioning China, then saying you're not actually questioning China? I pay absolutely no attention to what they say as I dont believe them to be trustworthy. You do and use their figures in your arguments. That's fine and is your prerogative. I Yes, because they do releases of such data. The point of the email you put up was that they're not required to under freedom of information, not that they couldn't do it. Really, how is that a hard concept to grasp? Really strange that they started their paragraph with "Unfortunately, we are unable to provide a breakdown..." Youd have thought they would just say they had no obligation to do it. But clearly you are still finding this concept hard to grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said: It takes a long time to compile the data and put it into a useful format. It’s not something they had to do before with this dataset as Covid19 is very new. They will of had a lot of people working on collecting and merging the data together. The papers are doing a very good job at showing people that working with statistics isn’t very easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Why? You've been told the figure, what is seeing it written down required for? A number of reasons, the key ones being: - Knowing whether it is accurate. - The context of the number. - The assumptions underpinning what was found. etc. Another poster linked me with the figures though. Given it's 12.5% of patients, and they have better outcomes than those who catch it in the community, I'd say that it's significant, and more than I'd have anticipated. 3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: So everything you say is fact and any opposing view is just a conspiracy theory? As I said you dont live here so cant really comment on what we are living through. That's not what I'm saying at all, but I do like this particular brand of muddying the water. Given what I've said though, is there anything I've said you feel you could classify as a conspiracy theory? Also, I'm not commenting on what you're living through. What I'm commenting on is the data around what this disease is, and what is happening, as well as my concerns regarding it from the outside. 3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: I pay absolutely no attention to what they say as I dont believe them to be trustworthy. You do and use their figures in your arguments. That's fine and is your prerogative. ...okey dokey... bit of a moot point, but that's nice and all... 3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Really strange that they started their paragraph with "Unfortunately, we are unable to provide a breakdown..." Youd have thought they would just say they had no obligation to do it. But clearly you are still finding this concept hard to grasp. It's fairly standard to start by telling someone you're not going to fulfil their request, before then explaining the logic behind the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Andicis said: Well if they push out patients back into care homes with covid this time it'd be criminal, in my opinion. That should lower the deaths a lot. There also is more effective treatments, and compared to March people have changed their behaviours. In no European country are we seeing the numbers from the start of the pandemic replicated now. It was criminal the first time and the secrecy around it is not helping give a clear picture of the current situation ie how many deaths were caused by this horrific decision? I hope you are right and we follow what has happened in other European countries. However, we seem to have our own freedom loving ways of doing things here which may differ from other countries. It would be interesting to see if other countries have seen the widespread 2nd wave like we have. Madrid and Paris seem to be suffering but they are big cities in countries much larger than ours and with huge empty areas. Germany seems to be more like us in terms in population density, but their approach has already been on a different level to ours. I would also think that our levels of obesity and underlying health conditions are worse than the rest of western Europe. I'm sure I read recently that areas of Glasgow have reducing life expectancy and it's amongst the worst in Europe. I'm worried we've sleepwalked into another load of deaths, which will further tank the economy. The people in charge need to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said: This doesn't sound good news... "Prof Stephen Powis, the national medical director for NHS England, is speaking now. He says there are more patients in hospital with Covid than in March when the nationwide restrictions were imposed." I was hoping that the usual suspects would be able to put a positive spin on this, but it just seems to have been ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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