Ghost of Clough Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TexasRam said: I’m so useless at spelling, I hope it’s not a symptom Ask @Bob The Badger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstand Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, rammieib said: Social distancing has just about closed this thing down in China. Self-Isolation following significant testing stopped this thing from getting going in Taiwan. I don't know about some of you lot but I'd prefer my parents not to get this, I'd prefer my 32 week pregnant wife not get this and in 7-8 weeks when we are in hospital, I'd like to know we will be safe in the hospital. I've got no issue going into a shut down if it stops this thing from spreading. I'm scared, really scared. I read different things, I trust our Government but the more I read about Self-Isolation, the more I feel that's the best thing. If and when we get to that stage, the food supply chains must be kept in place whilst the NHS is supported and protected as much as physically possible. Maybe we've seen the best positive ever in China being autocratic!!! New case figures are down in China which is good news https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN2100EA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 48 minutes ago, GboroRam said: Putting that into perspective, with a UK population of 66.5m, 80% infection means 53m people will get this virus. With a fatality rate of 3%, that means 1.5m people will die. That's serious. Not many are doubting the seriousness, but what evidence is there that 'lockdown' in a situation like ours (ie not China or N. Italy) works - what is works btw? It's pretty serious ruining the economy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 You’d like to think our medical advisors have looked closely at what has happened in other countries. I know any information coming out of China is looked at with some suspicion but, from what I can see: China - first case seems to have been around 22nd January (maybe there were many more earlier undetected cases) but new cases seem I have declined dramatically - less than two months later. S. Korea - First case seems to have been around 15th February and, I maybe wrong but, their cases seem to be declining - one month later. I just wonder why our peak isn’t predicted until another two to three months time. Maybe we, because we’re behind the curve, have managed to detect cases earlier so we have a longer period of few cases than China and S, Korea detected. There are probably some very clear and obvious explanations and I’ll look like a right numpty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, rammieib said: Maybe we've seen the best positive ever in China being autocratic!!! However that is what helped them 'clamp down' on early whistle-blowers about the new corona virus in the first place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 hours ago, TigerTedd said: i don’t get it. What does shutting down get you? you go into self isolation for 2 weeks. You come out. corona virus is still there Based on how viruses spread, that's not necessarily true. A virus needs a host to infect, and if there are no more hosts to infect then it disappears. If you lockdown for 4 weeks, then the majority of those with the virus will present the symptoms, so we get a clear picture of who has it and the spread can be stopped That's the theory anyway. Economic and social impacts are a different matter, but I find it hard to see why people would question whether social distancing has any effect. No one said "is there any evidence that being celibate and avoiding blood transfusions actually prevents you from catching HIV?" The problem at the moment is that we're carrying on as normal with thousands of people mingling together - and no idea who has it and who doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Kevin Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: However that is what helped them 'clamp down' on early whistle-blowers about the new corona virus in the first place! The doctor that went public is dead ,it was from the virus don't you know. I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: You’d like to think our medical advisors have looked closely at what has happened in other countries. I know any information coming out of China is looked at with some suspicion but, from what I can see: China - first case seems to have been around 22nd January (maybe there were many more earlier undetected cases) but new cases seem I have declined dramatically - less than two months later. S. Korea - First case seems to have been around 15th February and, I maybe wrong but, their cases seem to be declining - one month later. I just wonder why our peak isn’t predicted until another two to three months time. Maybe we, because we’re behind the curve, have managed to detect cases earlier so we have a longer period of few cases than China and S, Korea detected. There are probably some very clear and obvious explanations and I’ll look like a right numpty. China's first case was 17th November. S Korea was 20th Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SchtivePesley said: If you lockdown for 4 weeks, then the majority of those with the virus will present the symptoms, so we get a clear picture of who has it and the spread can be stopped How likely and possible is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, King Kevin said: The doctor that went public is dead ,it was from the virus don't you know. I wouldn't bet on it. There were doctors that spread the info about a new 'SARs like' virus before the doctor that died did it. They were sanctioned by the Chinese Govt. The doctor who died got his info from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: How likely and possible is that? Well we can see how Italy get on I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: Well we can see how Italy get on I guess We don't have a similar 'cluster' of infection that N Italy does. We also don't have lots of (illegal?) Chinese workers (in the fashion industry) which is where the main Italian infection arose/is, who may not want to be tested by the Govt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Its spread around the world now, containing it has long gone - unless you're in an 'at risk' group carry on as normal (following the simple precautions advised) and try not to let the constant media coverage terrify you. If we shut everything for a month now, it will only come back again when everything reopened and we'd be in a similar situation - may as well bite the bullet, try to keep the peak manageable by the NHS and other essential services. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Quote Jeremy Hunt told BBC Newsnight the decision to hold off cancelling large gatherings was "surprising and concerning" when we have "four weeks before we get to the stage that Italy is at". "You would have thought that every single thing we do in that four weeks would be designed to slow the spread of people catching the virus," added Mr Hunt, who was health secretary for six years and quit as foreign secretary in July. But Sir Patrick told BBC Radio 4's Today programme it was more likely the virus would be transmitted in a pub than a stadium. "The most likely place you are going to get an infection from is a family member or friend in a small space, not in a big space," he said. Defending the new tactics, he told BBC Breakfast: "The first set of measures are actually rather large." "We have just asked a lot of people to isolate, stay at home, if they have got symptoms of mild upper respiratory tract infection, cough or fever. That is a big change," he added. "We have also talked about the possibility of whole households staying at home if one person has got [coronavirus] - that may come in later. "And importantly we are also talking about that during the peak when people are most likely to get infected, the elderly and vulnerable are properly protected. This is not a short-term thing, it is going to go on for weeks." He said that closing schools was a "very effective way of dealing with pandemic flu" but that with this coronavirus, "the role of children is less clear in terms of spreading the disease". ... Sir Patrick said it is hoped the government's approach will create a "herd immunity in the UK". "Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely," he said. "Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission. "At the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it." He also said the new coronavirus is likely to become "an annual seasonal infection". Quote Keith Neal, emeritus professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said the measures would help contain the spread of the virus. He said: "The plans are sensible, it is very easy to say more needs to be done, but there is little evidence to make any decision." Meanwhile, Susan Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, said "nobody has the right answer" when it comes to tackling the virus. However, she said having sports events played behind closed doors could be counterproductive as it might instead lead people to gathering in pubs "in the warmth, where viruses love it". Arghhh pubs are the nest of the virus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter politics Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I see the chief science adviser is supposedly saying you have more chance of catching this in a pub (more closed space) than a stadium. That's great but a lot of folk make social days of trips to stadiums, hence the requirement to cancel events. It's rather concerning who silly Boris has working around him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, inter politics said: I see the chief science adviser is supposedly saying you have more chance of catching this in a pub (more closed space) than a stadium. That's great but a lot of folk make social days of trips to stadiums, hence the requirement to cancel events. It's rather concerning who silly Boris has working around him. And your medical qualifications are? Oh and a lot of people make daily trips to the pub, close 'em down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter politics Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: And your medical qualifications are? It's about looking at context. For many, stadium events are not just travel direct from home (in car) to match and then back to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mostyn6 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Does anyone know if this can be caught, rid-of and then caught again straight after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, inter politics said: It's about looking at context. For many, stadium events are not just travel direct from home (in car) to match and then back to home. Pubs either. More open-air pubs is what we need! ATM it sounds more likely the crowd gets the virus from the players than each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter politics Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mostyn6 said: Does anyone know if this can be caught, rid-of and then caught again straight after? I have seen conflicting reports. I don't think the experts know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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