Coronavirus

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Perhaps it never started in the Wuhan wet market after all?

Is France within a 40 mile radius of Wuhan?

[Guest]

ONS death rates figures released for the week ending 24 April 2020.

Deaths for the first 17 weeks of the year are 34k up on the 5 year average.

Deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the death certificate are 27k.

 

[ramit]

Restrictions here were partly lifted yesterday..

 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, FindernRam said:

So I ring 111, Hello ,I've got a temperature, bad cough, etc, yeah OK I'll, isolate.

NHS triggers the alerts 

No.

It has been clearly stated in the associated press releases almost a week ago, that you have to have tested positive for the coronavirus. Under those circumstances, and only those circumstances, you will be sent your results. The letter containing your results will have your personal NHS number, and with it, there will be a confirmation code that is unique to you. That will be what you enter into the app.

I envisage that the administration of the data would operate in a similar manner to that which is currently in place for those classified as 'highly vulnerable', but with even tighter restrictions.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

5 hours ago, Van Gritters said:

Churchills was always packed on a Saturday morning.

Had my hair cut there a few times. Remember a lad who worked with red hair very into his dance music and a girl called Kelly who was very nice.

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

First recorded case was 17th Nov in China;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

If it had already spread around the world the better part of a month before the WHO tweeted there was no human to human transmission you have to really wonder how many people have had it an not known about it.  I recall reading about a spike in flu cases earlier this year, before the coronavirus panic;

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/health/2020/01/08/sharp-rise-in-flu-cases-amid-vaccine-concerns/

The WHO did not say there was no human-to-human transmission - they said that there was "no evidence of human-to-human transmission" - and at the time they said that, all known cases had an association with the wet market in Wuhan.

It is not the same thing - absence of proof is not proof of absence.

 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Is France within a 40 mile radius of Wuhan?

I know that in all likelihood it did start there, but equally you could be asking me because your geographical knowledge is a little unreliable.

[Eddie]

43 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

ONS death rates figures released for the week ending 24 April 2020.

Deaths for the first 17 weeks of the year are 34k up on the 5 year average.

Deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned on the death certificate are 27k.

 

Don't tell @Uptherams. He'll spend the next month telling everyone that it's no worse than the flu again, and you can prove anything with statistics.

[Uptherams]

9 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Don't tell @Uptherams. He'll spend the next month telling everyone that it's no worse than the flu again, and you can prove anything with statistics.

I've already posted about the ONS figures. You can find some of my comments on them already. But you've shown already that you have no clue about mathematics and statistics ??

Edit, here you go: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020

I've been going over the latest figures and obviously reading the comparisons to 5 year averages. There's a lot to divulge. 

"Week 16,  11,854 more deaths than the 5 year average. 

Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths."

Therefore my initial line of questioning would be, what has caused the increase in death's for those without Covid-19 being cited. The other 60.8%. What caused the additional 7000 or so deaths compared to the 5 year average?

This potentially, is what many doctors have been talking about in terms of the impact of the lockdown and it's negative side. We might already have the data that indicates people dieing because of loniliness, depression, malnutrition, lack of access to treatment, surgery or drugs, etc.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Uptherams said:

I've already posted about the ONS figures. You can find some of my comments on them already. But you've shown already that you have no clue about mathematics and statistics ??

These latest figures probably cant be properly analysed until the end of the year as the death rate may fall going forward as vulnerable people have died.

Surely you accept it doesn't look good though?

[Uptherams]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

These latest figures probably cant be properly analysed until the end of the year as the death rate may fall going forward as vulnerable people have died.

Surely you accept it doesn't look good though?

Doesn't look good if you just look at the baseline reported figures and don't bother with anything else. As the data shows, there is a spike in deaths in general and the anecdotal evidence now has statistical support. That of which the impact of lockdown on public health. 

I'll have a look at the latest statistics soon. ?

[maxjam]

39 minutes ago, Eddie said:

The WHO did not say there was no human-to-human transmission - they said that there was "no evidence of human-to-human transmission" - and at the time they said that, all known cases had an association with the wet market in Wuhan.

It is not the same thing - absence of proof is not proof of absence.

Thats missing the point I was making.   

I simply stated the first recorded case was in China on Nov 17th.  I then went on to ponder how many people have actually died from covid-19 before the WHO posted their infamous tweet, especially that we now have the capabilities to retest earlier deaths leading to documented cases in France from before the end of last year.  Furthermore the media in the UK was reporting a steady rise in seasonal flu deaths over here;

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-deaths-hospital-ill-patient-gps-vaccine-phe-a9244201.html

[GboroRam]

SAGE reporting that their initial models showed intensive care being overrun in London, followed by the same happening across the rest of the UK. It may be that the numbers are lower than the potentially disastrous deaths that would have occurred if we hadn't locked down, and hospitals across the country found they can't cope with the influx.

There's no sense analysing the numbers. They are only a snapshot of the story.

Maybe the increase in deaths that don't include the virus includes some who died outside of hospital from underlying illnesses exacerbated by the virus. Whether that's a proportion large enough to affect the overall numbers we don't know. 

[maxjam]

28 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Thats missing the point I was making.   

I simply stated the first recorded case was in China on Nov 17th.  I then went on to ponder how many people have actually died from covid-19 before the WHO posted their infamous tweet, especially that we now have the capabilities to retest earlier deaths leading to documented cases in France from before the end of last year.  Furthermore the media in the UK was reporting a steady rise in seasonal flu deaths over here;

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-deaths-hospital-ill-patient-gps-vaccine-phe-a9244201.html

Quoting myself as the BBC have just published an article on the matter;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

[Mucker1884]

3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

...although I'm not sure how sunbathing in a park is more dangerous than going in a supermarket...

 

For skin cancer?  Yeah, I'm sure it would be!
Not sure that's the case with regards to covid19 though?  Who's told you that?

[B4ev6is]

15 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Well just dont use it then but dont moan if the situation gets bad again and we have to have another period of lockdown.

All I am saying that what some people will do. Thats all mate I just cant see this working.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

All I am saying that what some people will do. Thats all mate I just cant see this working.

Not everybody has to use the app.

But obviously the higher the usage the more successful it will be.

Just saying that there is no point because there will be idiots that use it incorrectly or people decide not to use it for their own reasons is just silly in my opinion.

[GboroRam]

4 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

All I am saying that what some people will do. Thats all mate I just cant see this working.

It's entirely voluntary. If someone doesn't want to use it they don't have to.

But it's a way of tracking who has been in contact with who, if they ever show that they have the virus. Then we can isolate 10 people and wait for them to get the all-clear, then let them back into normal life. If enough people agree to be tracked, we can all go back to a bit more normality.

Let's be honest. Would you be happy going into a full Pride Park if you knew some people in there had a deadly virus?

[B4ev6is]

Well we have had this before christmas or perhaps before but other countries not even brothered with a lockdown at all.

[Andicis]

What I wonder is why our deaths are so much higher than the rest of Europe. Is it that we're a more unhealthy population? Have we had a lot more cases but due to lack of testing we have no idea the real number of covid 19 cases we've had? Possibly it's spread around older generations here more than other countries?

Our NHS hasn't been overwhelmed, so us having a much higher number of deaths doesn't really make sense, unless people think that the staff in our hospitals are worse (which I absolutely don't agree with)