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Should we be favourites?


Carl Sagan

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Another stat attack for you from the excellent Experimental361 website.

2017-18-ch-days-in-pos.png

The image is this season's "Championship footprint" and shows how many days teams have spent in each position over the course of the season. Looking at the automatic promotion places, the numbers (playoff team in bold) are:

  1. Wolves 236
  2. Cardiff 178
  3. RAMS 44
  4. Sheff Utd 24
  5. Ipswich 21
  6. Dirty Leeds 18
  7. Bristol City 11
  8. QPR 7
  9. Fulham 6
  10. Villa 6
  11. Gumps 1 (they must have won the league on the opening day)
  12. Boro 0

Looking at the four playoff teams and the number of days spent in either the playoff or the automatic places, we get:

  1. Villa 192
  2. RAMS 161
  3. Fulham 100
  4. Boro 88

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

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PistoldPete2
3 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Another stat attack for you from the excellent Experimental361 website.

2017-18-ch-days-in-pos.png

The image is this season's "Championship footprint" and shows how many days teams have spent in each position over the course of the season. Looking at the automatic promotion places, the numbers (playoff team in bold) are:

  1. Wolves 236
  2. Cardiff 178
  3. RAMS 44
  4. Sheff Utd 24
  5. Ipswich 21
  6. Dirty Leeds 18
  7. Bristol City 11
  8. QPR 7
  9. Fulham 6
  10. Villa 6
  11. Gumps 1 (they must have won the league on the opening day)
  12. Boro 0

Looking at the four playoff teams and the number of days spent in either the playoff or the automatic places, we get:

  1. Villa 192
  2. RAMS 161
  3. Fulham 100
  4. Boro 88

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

No it means fulham were in good form in the second half of season and we weren't. So fulham would be favourites , at least if they weren't 1-0 down at half time. 

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4 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

Sunderland & Burton have taught us that we don't do well as favourites. Let's keep this stat to ourselves and remain happy underdogs.

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Don't think so Carl, you can mess with stats as much as you like,but the truth of the matter is Fulham are a better team than us over the season have some excellent players and have played the better football.

Fortunately for us the play offs do not take this in to consideration and it comes down to nerves ,luck,composure ,tactics and present form.If it didn't we would have been promoted before now and stuffed Qpr.

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5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Another stat attack for you from the excellent Experimental361 website.

2017-18-ch-days-in-pos.png

The image is this season's "Championship footprint" and shows how many days teams have spent in each position over the course of the season. Looking at the automatic promotion places, the numbers (playoff team in bold) are:

  1. Wolves 236
  2. Cardiff 178
  3. RAMS 44
  4. Sheff Utd 24
  5. Ipswich 21
  6. Dirty Leeds 18
  7. Bristol City 11
  8. QPR 7
  9. Fulham 6
  10. Villa 6
  11. Gumps 1 (they must have won the league on the opening day)
  12. Boro 0

Looking at the four playoff teams and the number of days spent in either the playoff or the automatic places, we get:

  1. Villa 192
  2. RAMS 161
  3. Fulham 100
  4. Boro 88

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

Watching Boro V Aston Villa 1st leg, have to say Villa look most solid of the 4 teams in the play off semi's. 

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1 hour ago, ram1964 said:

Don't think so Carl, you can mess with stats as much as you like,but the truth of the matter is Fulham are a better team than us over the season have some excellent players and have played the better football.

Fortunately for us the play offs do not take this in to consideration and it comes down to nerves ,luck,composure ,tactics and present form.If it didn't we would have been promoted before now and stuffed Qpr.

Fair enough and they did finish 13 points ahead. As you say, the playoffs are something else and for me we were comfortably the better team in the first leg. They managed one shot (just) inside the area whereas we had much better chances. Sadlly we didn't take them, but it gives me confidence.

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6 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Another stat attack for you from the excellent Experimental361 website.

2017-18-ch-days-in-pos.png

The image is this season's "Championship footprint" and shows how many days teams have spent in each position over the course of the season. Looking at the automatic promotion places, the numbers (playoff team in bold) are:

  1. Wolves 236
  2. Cardiff 178
  3. RAMS 44
  4. Sheff Utd 24
  5. Ipswich 21
  6. Dirty Leeds 18
  7. Bristol City 11
  8. QPR 7
  9. Fulham 6
  10. Villa 6
  11. Gumps 1 (they must have won the league on the opening day)
  12. Boro 0

Looking at the four playoff teams and the number of days spent in either the playoff or the automatic places, we get:

  1. Villa 192
  2. RAMS 161
  3. Fulham 100
  4. Boro 88

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

That's one of those stats that's really cool and good banter fodder, yet utterly, totally and unequivocally worthless ?

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37 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Fair enough and they did finish 13 points ahead. As you say, the playoffs are something else and for me we were comfortably the better team in the first leg. They managed one shot (just) inside the area whereas we had much better chances. Sadlly we didn't take them, but it gives me confidence.

Agree with you on this just hope we don't rule the missed chances of getting a second goal at home.Pressure all on Fulham though and if they pull it off against us, i hope they get promoted.

Let's hope we can get a result tomorrow.

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6 hours ago, ram1964 said:

Agree with you on this just hope we don't rule the missed chances of getting a second goal at home.Pressure all on Fulham though and if they pull it off against us, i hope they get promoted.

Let's hope we can get a result tomorrow.

Not me ,, if it’s not us going up I want villa to go up ,,why ? Fulham parachute money runs out and they then have to try to keep their team together next year from a more level playing field ,so villa up or next best Boro ,, it’s one less money monster for us to compete with next year if we don’t do it this year

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PistoldPete2
14 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Another stat attack for you from the excellent Experimental361 website.

2017-18-ch-days-in-pos.png

The image is this season's "Championship footprint" and shows how many days teams have spent in each position over the course of the season. Looking at the automatic promotion places, the numbers (playoff team in bold) are:

  1. Wolves 236
  2. Cardiff 178
  3. RAMS 44
  4. Sheff Utd 24
  5. Ipswich 21
  6. Dirty Leeds 18
  7. Bristol City 11
  8. QPR 7
  9. Fulham 6
  10. Villa 6
  11. Gumps 1 (they must have won the league on the opening day)
  12. Boro 0

Looking at the four playoff teams and the number of days spent in either the playoff or the automatic places, we get:

  1. Villa 192
  2. RAMS 161
  3. Fulham 100
  4. Boro 88

A case for Derby being overall favourites?

Forest had one day as League leaders we had none. So they should be favourites to win the play offs even though they are not in it, have not been anywhere near the play offs in years and when they have been they have never once won a single play off tie. 

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1 hour ago, archied said:

Not me ,, if it’s not us going up I want villa to go up ,,why ? Fulham parachute money runs out and they then have to try to keep their team together next year from a more level playing field ,so villa up or next best Boro ,, it’s one less money monster for us to compete with next year if we don’t do it this year

Villa are screwed if they don’t go up this season. They’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it this season. I know they still have parachute payments, but all the news out of villa is that they need to reign it in a lot next season, and will start having to off load players like Grealish. Villa won’t be a problem next season, so I hope anyone but villa go up. 

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9 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

@Ellafella You not awake yet mate?? 

oh @Angry Ram nerves are a janglin' and far too tense to think straight. The graph is very pretty and it's creative but football is all about current form, and the length off time a team spent in any particular position in the team is only a very weak indicator of future success in a game...if at all! Fulham are rightly favourites to beat us; they finished 13 points above us in the table and are at home today and should win and probably by more than 1 goal...but this is football and it isn't always a logical, linear trend.

If GR and the team pull it off today, it will go down in Rams history as a masterful piece of tactical football. I really don't like the style we play...but we can go to London and do this. Christ I'm nervous. Looks like I picked a bad week for giving up strong, intoxicating liquor. ?

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PistoldPete2
3 hours ago, Inglorius said:

The bookies have both us and Fulham as equally likely to progress at 11/10 on so effectively there are no favorites for the game tonight.  

 

3 hours ago, Inglorius said:

The bookies have both us and Fulham as equally likely to progress at 11/10 on so effectively there are no favorites for the game tonight.  

So the bookies will win either way... As usual

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