Duracell Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Call me a happy-clapper but I think our last three fixtures can be explained by this phenomenon. In many matches in our good spells this season, we have gone well above the mean in terms of finishing chances. We were unusually clinical - sometimes sweeping aside teams having created barely a dozen chances. In our past two home games, we’ve created 43 chances and returned with a solitary point. Have the wheels really fallen off, or has a blip in form for our forwards meant that we are falling away from a false position? Is it realistic to expect us to finish 2nd the way we were playing? The other thing we’ve started doing is conceding goals. Not ideal if you want to win matches as you need to score more than the other team in order to win. Again, in our good spell, we were perhaps performing above the mean - keeping more clean sheets and conceding fewer goals than perhaps our performances really deserved, and now that’s being balanced out by us being punished for weak defending over the past three matches. Some are saying “it’s happenig again”, but really, the only thing that’s the same as before is that the results have changed in February. Under previous management, the end of January and beginning of February usually saw us go from being one of the best footballing sides in the league capable of dominating football matches to completely and utterly losing the plot. Like playing 4-3-3 with Hendricks as CDM, Russell up top on his own and having a crocked Grant in goal. Or signing Abdoul Camara. The first part of the usual story hasn’t happened this season. Heard a few, including Rammage, complain about us not controlling the ball and letting Fulham have possession, but he wasn’t complaining about it when we were second in the league. I don’t see a massive step back in terms of the way we are playing - I just see mistakes being punished and dodgy finishing. I also think second flattered us and we are in the process of falling towards 5 or 6th, which is about where I think we really are. Do we just need to calm down a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioactiveWaste Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I think there's something in that. I think the team's mostly still doing what it does and still reasonable at it, but the mistakes in both defence and attack are killing us, and the more it happens, the more it seems likely to happen, the more players and fans believe it to happen, the more it becomes the self fulfilling prophesy. What's needed is a couple of moral boosting wins. It's interesting to see the approach of sticking with the team and tactics (more or less) through a bad patch when in previous bad patches there's been a lot of change and change and change to try to get something that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inglorius Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Being second for so long built up unrealistic expectations; just look at Bristol City and where they are now actually below us scraping to get a playoff place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamRam Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 crock of ****, when we were winning we didn’t need to control the ball, it didn’t need changing. Our downturn has coincided with the Jan window and GR for some reason messing around with the team at every opportunity. we now have Jerome up front who isn’t converting them chances, this is not regression against the mean it’s a forward passes his beat. Letting JR go without a replacement was a regression in the strength of the team, making 5 changes in one game will disrupt the ethos of the team, what we have is the elastic band effect, where we have gone below our baseline as the result of decisions off the pitch not on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 We let proven goal scorers leave and signed ones that hope to shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Duracell said: “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Call me a happy-clapper but I think our last three fixtures can be explained by this phenomenon. In many matches in our good spells this season, we have gone well above the mean in terms of finishing chances. We were unusually clinical - sometimes sweeping aside teams having created barely a dozen chances. In our past two home games, we’ve created 43 chances and returned with a solitary point. Have the wheels really fallen off, or has a blip in form for our forwards meant that we are falling away from a false position? Is it realistic to expect us to finish 2nd the way we were playing? The other thing we’ve started doing is conceding goals. Not ideal if you want to win matches as you need to score more than the other team in order to win. Again, in our good spell, we were perhaps performing above the mean - keeping more clean sheets and conceding fewer goals than perhaps our performances really deserved, and now that’s being balanced out by us being punished for weak defending over the past three matches. Some are saying “it’s happenig again”, but really, the only thing that’s the same as before is that the results have changed in February. Under previous management, the end of January and beginning of February usually saw us go from being one of the best footballing sides in the league capable of dominating football matches to completely and utterly losing the plot. Like playing 4-3-3 with Hendricks as CDM, Russell up top on his own and having a crocked Grant in goal. Or signing Abdoul Camara. The first part of the usual story hasn’t happened this season. Heard a few, including Rammage, complain about us not controlling the ball and letting Fulham have possession, but he wasn’t complaining about it when we were second in the league. I don’t see a massive step back in terms of the way we are playing - I just see mistakes being punished and dodgy finishing. I also think second flattered us and we are in the process of falling towards 5 or 6th, which is about where I think we really are. Do we just need to calm down a bit? Young man, there is no place on this forum. for reflection and reasoned argument. Just call the players bottlers, ask for Rowett's head or blame Mel. Any other option requires a dangerous amount of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, sage said: Do we just need to calm down a bit? You mean calm like Nero watching Rome burn or an Osterich putting its head in the sand! The blip is a slump and if we want prem action we should be losing our calm-- so should GR or he'll do a Wenger and let us fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1967Ram Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, FindernRam said: You mean calm like Nero watching Rome burn or an Osterich putting its head in the sand! The blip is a slump and if we want prem action we should be losing our calm-- so should GR or he'll do a Wenger and let us fade away. Mel's itchy trigger finger will never let that happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Duracell said: “In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.” Call me a happy-clapper but I think our last three fixtures can be explained by this phenomenon. In many matches in our good spells this season, we have gone well above the mean in terms of finishing chances. We were unusually clinical - sometimes sweeping aside teams having created barely a dozen chances. In our past two home games, we’ve created 43 chances and returned with a solitary point. Have the wheels really fallen off, or has a blip in form for our forwards meant that we are falling away from a false position? Is it realistic to expect us to finish 2nd the way we were playing? The other thing we’ve started doing is conceding goals. Not ideal if you want to win matches as you need to score more than the other team in order to win. Again, in our good spell, we were perhaps performing above the mean - keeping more clean sheets and conceding fewer goals than perhaps our performances really deserved, and now that’s being balanced out by us being punished for weak defending over the past three matches. Some are saying “it’s happenig again”, but really, the only thing that’s the same as before is that the results have changed in February. Under previous management, the end of January and beginning of February usually saw us go from being one of the best footballing sides in the league capable of dominating football matches to completely and utterly losing the plot. Like playing 4-3-3 with Hendricks as CDM, Russell up top on his own and having a crocked Grant in goal. Or signing Abdoul Camara. The first part of the usual story hasn’t happened this season. Heard a few, including Rammage, complain about us not controlling the ball and letting Fulham have possession, but he wasn’t complaining about it when we were second in the league. I don’t see a massive step back in terms of the way we are playing - I just see mistakes being punished and dodgy finishing. I also think second flattered us and we are in the process of falling towards 5 or 6th, which is about where I think we really are. Do we just need to calm down a bit? Absolutely right. We haven’t lost our heads or stopped trying, it’s just the little things that were going for us aren’t anymore. Moments that last a couple of seconds often decide a game and these aren’t going our way anymore. It could just as easily turn again, it’s not like we’re not scoring or creating anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, FindernRam said: You mean calm like Nero watching Rome burn or an Osterich putting its head in the sand! The blip is a slump and if we want prem action we should be losing our calm-- so should GR or he'll do a Wenger and let us fade away. You have put someone's else's word to my name. What action would you like though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
europia Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Inglorius said: Being second for so long built up unrealistic expectations; just look at Bristol City and where they are now actually below us scraping to get a playoff place All depends on the individuals or group in question. Achieving 2nd spot could either inspire or overwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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