Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Skybet offering 9/2 so they have it at around an 18% chance. Seems a little high to me, I think your 10% is reasonable.

Loving the deep-thought out analyses and responses.
My initial 10% assessment might be slightly on the generous side.
Make no mistake, it is truly a Herculean task, but I hadn't in any way envisaged our recent three wins.
It's turned our task from the "You're having a laugh" ridiculously impossible, to the " You know what, we've got a sniff of a chance "
It's the hope that kills you. If you had weighed up Leicester's chances of winning the Premier League a couple of seasons ago, you'd have laughed 
I'd consider our challenge as being 1/3rd of doing a Leicester as the situation stands.
You've got to dream. It's not impossible, but it is ridiculously improbable.
It will be interesting in the coming weeks and months how, if this thread continues, sentiments change.
That's why this ridiculous game affects our lives so much 

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

I don't know what the odds are, but if you're that confident, put the mortgage and the pension fund on it.

You'll either end up retiring in the Bahamas next year - or in a bedsit on Hartington St. ?

Can anyone else hear Steve McQueen's motorbike revving up?  I'd like to think so, but in reality I think he's just looking at that seized-up motorbike, wondering if many hours of oiling, failed attempts to get it going, will even result in it even getting going again, let alone join the race.
I'd  like to think Steve is tinkering with his ancient machinery at our training ground, with a view to riding it into Pride Park Park, with 10 games to go, revving his way around the perimeter of the pitch, every last few games.
Then I woke up - and we survived relegation this year. What a dream that was!

A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%.  I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning.

After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival?

It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis.

Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today?

As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today.

What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off?  No guffawing in the cheap seats.
 

Will it be a Ram, riding a motorbike, sailing over barbed wire?

Not really in the spirit of the thread but % evaluation is so difficult given the number of variables, especially which players we can keep & if any other clubs implode before May.
Said it before but I'm purely looking in terms of milestones instead of the whole picture. First two miestones were to get out of negative points, then to double points & we've done both quicker than I thought. Next milestone is to get past Barnsley, who seem to be struggling badly. Once we're off the bottom, the belief we can reel others in should increase.
My checklist (I accept 3 & 4 and 4 & 5 may swap depending on events elsewhere);
1. Get out of negative points DONE
2. Get into double figures points DONE
3. Get off the bottom/past Barnsley
4. Get within 9 points/3 games off 4th bottom
5. Get to 22nd (looking like Peterborough are the target)
6. Get within one positive result of 4th bottom
7. Get out of bottom 3

I'd give us a 25% of survival and I'm good at maths tbh. Not that it  matters when it comes to this though as anything could happen really but 3% is very pessimistic imo. 
10 wins and 5 draws with 7 losses should do it, top 6 form yes, but this league is absolutely poo. Stoke are a playoff contender and they are dross, our spirit and determination +quality in defence makes it a possibility to me. Not a massive chance but much more likely than a very small one I think.
Maybe I've over optimistic after watching the game, but that's 3 wins on the bounce now and I think once Kazim gets fit enough to start that will help us + we potentially have Bielik retuning. Not that we need him really on tonight's showing. 

Enjoying the win tonight, after the points deduction the whole footballing world wrote us off.
These last 3 games have made me prouder than any 3 in the last 25 years. We aren’t going to roll over and die, let’s take each game as it goes, hopefully win more than we lose and see where we are at the end of the season. 
duck the EFL, duck the rest of the league, duck that girly haired duck Gibson, we are Derby County and we’ll fight ‘til the end! ?

Just about scraped myself off the ceiling - ooh, err matron!
Great team selection tonight, another fantastic blood and guts performance from the lads, laced with no small amount of good football too. Further credit to Wayne and the coaches; the right subs made at precisely the right time. Full kudos, they got it absolutely spot on tonight in every regard. 
For my part, I can't help but love this squad. For years now, even under Mac1 when we had a seriously good footballing side, we always had something of a soft centre. These lads, however, are tough as teak and are showing just the kind of gritty resolve we've so often lacked. In an era when most players seem to be all about themselves, these lads play for each other and the fans. Just watch how they react to every challenge, every save, every goal and every point secured. We talk about pride in the shirt and rightly so. These lads have it in spades. And what about those fans of ours! Our lot are now indisputably the most rabidly fervent collective of madheads anywhere in the EFL. No contest! 
All these elements combined have topped off a wonderful festive period for me and mine and I really hope for yous lot too. With another 4 days before I even consider doing any work again and the chance to pop another 3 points on the board in the interim, this has been a holiday I'll not forget for a long while and I'm bursting with pride for this maddening, yet wonderful club of ours. Folks have espoused the opinion that suitors would be mad to invest in Derby County FC. Personally, I think they'd be mad not to. 
COYR
 

5% chance. 
 
To nail survival you need another 40 points from 22 games remaining. We need just under 2 points per game to hit that total (1.81 to be precise). 
The last 7 games we have over 2 points per game and we have played some of the toughest teams in the league. 
 
We have most of the teams around us to play at home and we have made Pride Park a relative fortress this season. 
 
In my heart I believe we will do it. COYR

Just an afterthought. Of course, so much will depend if we can resolve the ownership issue in January. If we enter into a fire-sale, we've no chance, but if someone resolves it quickly and pumps in say,  5 to 10 million in, what admittedly would be a huge gamble, the chances of us surviving could bump up to 20%-30% +. 

I'm loving the exactitude of certain member's assessments. This is the deep-thought analyses I enjoy. ?

You're more optimistic than me! It's a great result tonight, thing is that we have to maintain promotion form for the rest of the season to stand a chance, and overall I think we'll just fall short. I'd give us a 3% chance of survival. 

A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%.  I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning.

After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival?

It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis.

Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today?

As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today.

What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off?  No guffawing in the cheap seats.