Ghost of Clough

On 13/06/2024 at 18:07, GboroRam said:

I have plenty of power hungry appliances, and to just understand how much leaving a couple of PCs and games consoles on is enlightening. 

I've got solar panels and a battery, so understanding the benefit of using the dishwasher a little later when I get a little sun on the panels is very effective for saving money. 

It was very informative, having the display. It also shows current usage, so if something has started using energy you can see it immediately. 

The PC consumption would be interesting to see. I often leave my work PC on just in case I may want to do a bit of work a few hours later... and then it stays on over night because I forget.

Thanks to smart meters, I've been tracking my gas and electricity usage for a few years now - partly because I find it quite interesting, but also because it helps me estimate how much I'll be paying in the future. With Octopus, I can decide what I'll be paying, rather than going with what they think I'll use (which is always an overestimate)

A few things you'll notice:

1. As you'd expect, gas usage is cyclical - high in the winter, very low in the summer (due to more heating)

2. The big dip in electricity in Feb 2022 (I had a large kitchen renovation which meant I wasn't living in my house for 3 weeks)

3. The blue vertical signifies my house move which coincided with the end of my electric car lease. You can see an electric car adds 50-100% on to my electric bill (I did around 12k miles a year). My gas bill has also dropped 40% from now living in a better insulated house.

2 hours ago, Eoghan1884 said:

players who can play a few positions and roles in multiple systems

This is the important part, mostly for any wingers, AMs and forwards we target. Even if we stick with 3 at the back, we'll alternate between a 3412 (AM and 2 CFs) and a 3421 system (2 wingers/AMs and a CF). You could add 352 or the occasional 4231 to the mix too

We know Warne went to Denmark to watch a player and I wouldn't bet against them having a British connection (place of birth, citizenship). The only players I found are:
Nathan Trott (GK)
Bailey Peacock-Farell (GK)
Scott McKenna (CB)
Tyrese Francois (CM)

Trott is linked with a £1m move and Peacock-Farell is awful. McKenna (Forest) and Francois (Fulham) are both available on frees. Out of these, my money would be on McKenna. The convience of not having to move home would be a factor. He'd be an upgrade on Bradey in the middle of our defence.

Others to have played in Britain and available on frees are:
Filip Helander (CB) - Rangers 2019-2023
Raul Albentosa (CB) - Derby 2015-2016
Tom Trybull (CM) - Norwich 2017-2021, Blackburn 2020-2021, Blackpool 2023

I can't see it being any of these, as they're all past their best and have a record of injuries

1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

I take it you weren’t at the the Stevenage away game, what Warne had to endure was about as far away from civilised debate as you could get.

1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

It’s a good job some of us, and Mr Clowes in particular have a bit more patience then.

Wasn't that the game Warne said he would have booed if he was a fan? If Warne was to be sacked, after that game was arguably the best time to do it - we were 9th after 14 games. We would have had enough games and points to play for to turn it around. The failure to beat Crewe after 2 attempts rasised concerns too. 

Unfortunately, when we didn't win, there wasn't much to cheer about. At least when playing more technical football there is more to justify giving a manager more time.

After Stevenage, we won the next 5 league games, followed by a draw then 4 more wins, which took us to 2 points off automatics. The management team deserved to at least see the season out to prove they could get us promotion. They succeeded and now deserve to be backed to prove they can meet the objectives in the Championship. 

The excuse in the past has been along the lines of Warne being restricted to players signed by other managers limiting the style of play. Ignoring academy graduates, there will only be 4 players next season signed by other managers (Rooney, Forsyth, Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen) and 2 of those were given new contracts by Warne. This is now Warne's squad. I think it's now fair to say the quality of play should also improve as more signings are made to compliment exactly what Warne wants. Management also deserve a bit of time to prove this is the case.

Despite a couple of my original concerns from 2022 still being in place (academy and style of play), I'm still looking forward to what Warne can deliver next season.

2 minutes ago, ram59 said:

I stand corrected.👍

I keep forgetting that the headline transfer fee is split over the length of the contract when it comes to purchases. As you've previously pointed out money 'raised' from sales is only counted against the 'book value' of a player. So, am I correct in thinking that if they were to sell an expensive flop for a loss on his 'book value', this would actually count against them from an FFP point of view, even though money would actually be coming into the club?

That's right. Someone like Sangare (signed for £30m but only played more than 45 minutes once in 2024) would have to be sold for more than £24m

6 hours ago, ram59 said:

Imagine how much trouble they'd be in if they'd sold him when they should have. They'd have avoided the 'massive' 4 point deduction which didn't actually affect them, but would now be needing to sell players far in excess of what they have to at the moment.

No difference. As P&S is judged over a 3 year period (4 during Covid), the Johnson sale would be included in the currnet P&S period whether part of the 22/23 or 23/24 season.

The sale being included in the 23/24 season does help them in the 3 years to 2026 though.

On 11/06/2024 at 13:41, Day said:

 

£20m PROFIT above book value. It'll be approximately £28m if Mangala's transfer to Lyon doesn't go through by the end of the month.

47 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

My point is that most teams would expect their forwards to score most of the goals.  Until we get some strikers however, that will only represent a miserly amount of goals without plenty of investment or some very cute signings in the Rasiak form.  We will need goals from midfield in the range of 20 as it stands to get near 50 goals as we have no forward currently who will get 20, probably not 10.

We'll sign forwards just like we'll sign midfielders. 10 goals is enough from CMs for a 50 goal total

1 hour ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Depends how many you concede.  Blackburn scored 60. Plymouth 59 and had a very squeaky arse. Stoke 49, QPR 47. Birmingham down with 50.   We won't have strikers/ wide players  who can score 50- 60 without spending a fair bit, so for my money, we will need those goals. 

Playing in a similar manner to last season, we would expect to see a similar distribution on goals per position going forward.

The point I made was that in an automatic promotion campaign with 55 games in all competitions, our midfielders scored 21 goals. 4 of those were from Sibley playing on the wing. In a midtable Championship side, with fewer Cup games, it's very unlikely we will increase out goal output from midfield.

Given Warne's preference for being a threat from set pieces, he'll be looking for 66% of goals from his forwards, 17% from his midfielders and 17% from his defenders and wing backs. Even in a 75 goal season, that's only 13 goals from CMs.

1 hour ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Adams is fine. Osborn is fine but I seem to remember him being more of a full back. We need 20 goals from midfield though so we need to find two more midfielders to push forward and get at least 15 goals and create them for others.  

20 goals from midfield!!?

In a L1 automatic promotion season, with games in the EFL trophy, our CMs (including Sibley) scored a combined 21 goals. 6 of those were Sibley.

Unless you're expecting a Playoff campaign, we won't need 20 goals from midfield

4 hours ago, alram said:

how many between 21-25? which is the age of the squad that should be our core

That's an odd age range you've come up with. Only 4 Championship squads had an average age below 25 last season.

Peak years are 24-29, so this should be the core squad, and will be the age range for the majority of our signings. We already have 7 players in this range. 

2 hours ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

I love the thought of Warne getting on a plane to scout players, rocking up in Denmark and Holland, thinking we are finally going to sign some foreign talent, and then he only looks at British players out on loan called Scott or Paul 😆

Nathan Trott and Bailey Peacock-Farell were both playing in Denmark last season

5 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Well, Wharton and Mainoo have been selected ahead of Henderson and Mount; Eze and Gordon ahead of Rashford and Grealish.

Mount who hasn't played for England since the 2022 World Cup. He's had a number of injuries this season, woth only 1 start since November.

Southgate began to phase Henderson out of the squad as soon as he moved to Saudi.

Rashford has had a poor season considering he's an attacking winger. This season was his worst minutes per contribution in his professional career.

Grealish has also struggled with injuries and consistency this season. Only 4 goals/assists in the league is a poor return. Only 3 starts in the league since December, with only 4 more coming in other competitions, with only 1 assist (0 goals) in the same period of time.

Wharton, Mainoo, Eze and Gordon have all played well this season. Wharton has already been linked with the likes of Man City and Bayern this summer, whilst Spurs, Man Utd, Liverpool have all been linked to Eze - both for £60m+, demonstrating the levels of performances from them so far. Gordon has had as many goals/assists this season as Grealish, Rashford and Mount combined.

3 hours ago, alram said:

agree completely youth and experience are vital. but we have experience. we need youth.

 

that is my issue about this whole thing. not that we are signing the odd 30+ year old, its that we have a squad full of them already and the game is so athletic nowadays. 

 

you are right they are FREE but they will also leave for free. i would rather pay more and invest in a player for 3-4 years that has the ability to grow with the club or earn the club good money.

We have 6 players who are 30+. Three of them will be backups (Forsyth, Barkhuizen, Washington), and only two of them are likely to start more often than not (Nelson and Mendez-Laing).

The other is Bradley, who was recently linked with a move to Charlton.

"Realistic Aspirations" would be a top half finish since that's the upper end of what's realistic.

A battle against relegation should be a pessimistic outlook, whilst a top 6 finish would be very unlikely. Anything in between is reasonable. Only 8 points seperated 9th and 18th last season.

On 22/05/2024 at 08:39, Ghost of Clough said:

It won't be far off something like this...

Euro squad: Pickford, Ramsdale, Henderson, Alexander-Arnold, Walker, Shaw, Trippier, Stones, Maguire, Gomez, Guehi, Rice, Gallagher, Bellingham, Mainoo, Wharton, Foden, Palmer, Maddison, Grealish, Saka, Bowen, Gordon, Eze, Kane, Watkins

Not a bad guess in the end

Dunk in for Maguire was the obvious choice considering Maguire is still injured. Guehi will probably start alongside Stones, so an experienced leader and someone who knows the squad well is preferred as a backup over Branthwaite.

Considering the fitness of Shaw, it seems logical to take an extra defender who can fill in at LB (if Trippier also becomes unavailable or needs a rest), hence Konsa's inclusion. Maddison's lack of form since his mid-season injury and several other AMs in the squad (all played consistently well last season) made him the easy one to drop.

Grealish can feel hard done by. However, taking just 2 CFs would have been a big risk, so we needed to drop another of the 'AMs' to squeeze Toney in. Foden and Eze have both been better on the left than Grealish this season, whilst Gordon also offers a greater goal threat

4 hours ago, Ambitious said:

Will Vaulks contract talks with Wednesday have stagnated. He was their player of the season last year and has previous with Warne. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we were throwing a few spanner’s in the works to see if we can persuade him to sign for us. He suits the system, is well known to the manager and is a proven at Championship level. If we can pick up Vaulks and Bernard on frees from Wednesday that would be lovely start to the window. 

Bernard has played most of the season at LCB and a few games on the right. I can't see him joining a club to be backup, and he wont get in the side over Cashin or Nelson. I dount he'd be ahead of Nyambe in the pecking order either. Any CB signing should be the key man in yhe middle of our defence.

Vaulks and Adams would be a very solid midfield pairing. Both lead by example and set standards on and off the pitch. Warne also got the best out of Vaulks, contributing 7 goals and 7 assists in his final season before he went to Cardiff.

7 hours ago, Eoghan1884 said:

Dominic Ball (28) has left Ipswich as a free agent. He’d be a good player to have in the squad in midfield as I’d imagine we’ll sign around 4 centre midfielders. Played at Rotherham before so Warne will know him and has played 4 seasons in the championship is the last 5 years.

Very generous by saying he's played in the Championship last season with just 137 mins played. He was barely a squad played in L1 either.

With Fornah, Thompson as our CM squad players, and DRobinson as backup, we don't need players to make up the numbers.

9 minutes ago, Charlie George said:

Kayden Jackson also on Ipswich's released list. Plenty of links with him in the January window. 

The last time he scored more than 3 league goals in a season? 19/20... in L1. Only 6 goals in 65 Championship appearances suggests he isn't at the standard we need.

We already have DBrown, Washington and potentially Collins as CF squad options. We need to sign starters.

28 minutes ago, Kamikaze said:

Good list of Man City Under 21s that contracts are ending and we could hopefully be in the mix for...

True Grant (GK)

Jahmai Simpson-Pusey /  Max Alleyne (CB)

Alex Robertson / Jacob Wright / Michael Okeke / Kane Taylor (CM)

Nico O'Reilly / Josh Adam (AM)

Tai Sodje (CF)

 

A couple of useful options for our U21s, but Robertson is the only one who is first team ready. However, he missed half of last season due to injury 

1 hour ago, BaianoPOTY98 said:

Especially with us already having Washington on the books and Collins offered a new contract.

Windass would be the AM in our 3412. A similar role to Barkhuizen when playing there. His attacking output would be better, but I don't recall him as the pressing type.

2 hours ago, Rample said:

1. I was going to put this in finance, but its nowhere near that level of discussion and is specific to wages so I gave it its own thread.

2. Its only a bit of speculation/fun, and although the numbers are based on realistic sounding internet figures I haven't meticulously studied each clubs accounts/chatted with the owners, so the contrarian(s) who like to frequently tear posts apart need not bother.

I've been looking at what clubs reportedly spend on wages compared to their attendances, and if these tell us anything about our likely wage bill increase for next season.

Same stats used for those clubs put us at around £160k per week once departing players are removed (Sibley and Collins still included), meaning we can expect to spend another £120-220k per week on wages. That seems massive.

 

What's your source for the wage bills?

Your 8th highest equates to just £19m, whereas club accounts will only have around 3 clubs at or below that figure.

I'll be extremely surprised if our total wage bill in 24/25 is not in the £22-28m range (half the division will be in that range). £25m is a reasonable estimate, with roughly £20m of that being first team player wages.

48 minutes ago, YouRams said:

*Agent uses Derbys name to get a bigger wage at Wrexham, thread closed.

Except the 'source' is our first team coach 

1 hour ago, IlsonDerby said:

Wilson was full back all season when he finished in the league 2 TOTY wasn’t he? 

Pretty sure they played with wing backs

35 minutes ago, StarterForTen said:

GOC, what’s your understanding of a compensation fee for Sibley should he go to another English club?

£0 because we supposedly haven't matched (or bettered) his current contract.