LeedsCityRam

Jack Hinshelwood from Brighton more or less done. Loan for 1 year. I'm told. Announcement next week. 

Gets more right than wrong. Also if you don’t like him just block him? 

Believe Kellyman was £700,000 with 25% clause. Administrations sold Gordon’s only. We still have Delaps for this summer too👀

Some fair points well made. 
 
Thing is there were a number of factors that led to Wenger’s decline. That period saw the emergence of Barcelona, smaller diminutive players that passed teams of the park and dominated football and Wenger unsuccessfully went down that road, as opposed to the more robust style of Mourinho’s Chelsea. 
 
However there were mitigating circumstances such as the move to the Emirates that meant that Wenger couldn’t spend the money his counterparts were spending on players. Obviously Wenger got things wrong too but his reputation as a winner above everything else is there, truly one of the games great mangers. 
 
So a question if Warne is such a winner why has he failed in both full seasons at championship level? 
 
Don’t say money because you’ve dismissed that argument with reference to Wenger’s demise stating it was his desire to play entertaining football at all costs as opposed to a pragmatic winning mentality. 
 
 

No problem. Always good for me to have someone to discuss these things with!
The book says Benham and Bloom reportedly used to work together but had a falling out and parted ways. Both then went on to set up similar very successful football gambling enterprises based on analytics.
I see how Derby could use this is by reverse engineering what the gamblers know. If there are aspects of play, that might not be immediately obvious or based on conventional wisdom, that give a team an advantage, then incorporate these into how we play.
 

I'm by no means an expert on this but am happy to write about what I've learned from reading this book so far (started it yesterday and only 1/4 of the way through) as well as a few others on analytics in football. You might regret you asked. Brace yourself for an essay... 😁
I do wonder about the influence of David Clowes on the new appointments, in that perhaps he has used statistical analysis already, thinking back to the pivotal moment in last season of Stevenage away. He kept calm and didn't sack PW despite the discontent among the fan base. Maybe this was more based on stats than just sticking with his man for sentimental reasons? By then we had already 'lost' five points to Bolton and Portsmouth due to refereeing decisions so the table position at the time did lie (a theme in the book), and there were dubious decisions in the Stevenage game where we also conceded two goals directly from free kicks that didn't indicate an overall malaise.
This links into two other examples in the book with regard to managers.
When Klopp left Dortmund to join Liverpool amateur analysts at the time had shown that his last 'poor' season at Dortmund was actually due to bad luck with regard to results of matches versus his team's stats. If this was realised at the time then who knows he might never have joined Liverpool.
With Alan Pardew at Newcastle in 11/12 his team finished 5th in the PL but based on the stats such as goal difference, distribution of goals and net shots on target, they should have finished lower. He was given an 8 year deal on the basis of the 'lucky' season, thinking he'd cracked it, but next season they finished 16th and he didn't last much longer. However the stats for both seasons were actually remarkably similar so he got a higher placing than expected in 'lucky' season 1 but lower in 'unlucky' season 2. If analytics had been used then more rational decisions concerning his contract might have been made.
Another interesting aspect of this is outcome bias, ie the perceived wisdom after the event to make the narrative fit the outcome rather than being a cool analysis of the facts. So season 1 Pardew is praised for attractive play and courage to play youngsters, in season 2 criticised for having a too gung-ho style of play and lack of experience in the team. 
As an aside and potential use of analytics, the current situation of Harry Kane and his playing for England in the Euros could be given. Different opinions from the pundits are he's too old, doesn't press and plays too deep, versus well he scored the goal against Denmark so needs to play. I would think that rather than making gut decisions on his selection then data could be analysed to make one that is more informed, considering variables such as, how many goals against Denmark 'should' England be scoring, does HK in the team affect this by actually reducing the total number of goals scored even allowing for him netting one. Analysis of different games in tournaments, friendlies, high and lower ranked teams, could be made to give some sort of an answer to this.
This sort of information does exist, in that the author mentions Matthew Benham at Brentford and Tony Bloom at Brighton, who both made fortunes from particular forms of gambling on football, enough to enable them to each buy their supported-since-childhood clubs and during their ownership get them promoted to the PL. They didn't do this by making lucky punts on games but adopted large scale analysis using teams of workers, knowing they only had to calculate the outcome of matches more than 50% of the time to make money. A factor included in this was the likely outcome if a particular player was in or out of the team, similar to the HK situation, so hard stats can be used rather than just guesswork.
The book discusses player ratings made by watching a game versus via stats, linked into the cognitive biases involved in scouting and the risks of this. Also, I like mention of the biases of narrative, such as Pep being a genius with regard to tactics and personnel, whereas he took over winning teams that have continued to win post him leaving, and has only coached the most or second most expensive teams in each league. 
There's mention of football being influenced by luck and how good and bad luck in games affects the outcome, but how the game hesitates to recognise this. I had the three Euros games on yesterday and having read this my ears pricked up with the number of times pundits said the word luck without even thinking about it and how this tied into the book.
Analysis of games using xG is discussed, and how this leads into 'the table does lie', both with examples.
It's an evolving relatively new area, but with the ability to analyse aspects such as throw ins, crossing the ball as a goal scoring method, corner kicks, as well as a myriad of other in game possibilities, then a more informed decision on managers, players and tactics can be utilised. That is apart from being used to identify undiscovered gems when signing players as per Moneyball.
An example that I've often scratched my head at, that I assume analytics could be used to give information on, is a free kick towards the end of a game we are chasing from behind. It seems an inordinate length of time is spent with the lining up the wall, discussions between the players as to who is going to take it with bluffing techniques thrown in, jostling in the box with the ref then delaying play to speak to the players concerned, only for the free kick to be blasted into the wall or row Z. With the clock ticking down would it be better to try a different routine with the ball passed short and played on from there. I've seen some examples in perhaps more innovative women's football. Analytics could give an answer as to the success of free kicks taken in particular areas with the personnel at hand, versus time taken to take them and probability of scoring from attacking open play in similar positions.
One reason I really like this move by the club is that we know it will be very hard to gain promotion from the Championship (if that is indeed the aim but then that's another philosophical debate...) given the unlikely-to-be-resolved-anytime-soon influence of parachute payments given to clubs relegated from the PL so they can bounce back up. Trying to gain an advantage using analytics hasn't at present been outlawed by the EFL, so is a smart way to try and progress rather than financial manipulation given the hazards we know that involves.
I'm sure DC in his business dealings doesn't just go with his gut but uses feasibility studies and similar to base decisions on, and I see the use of analytics at Derby being not dissimilar to this. PW as well is a shrewd cookie, and beneath the bobble hat and jokey exterior he's pleased to use this option for the next step of Derby in the Championship. 
 
 

WKR, are you able to explain to us heathens a little more about what areas might be scrutinised for incremental gains (if this is even an aim) and how football is using data beyond moneyball basics, please? You mention refereeing mistakes in humour, but I sense not entirely so.
For clarity, I'm aware that the All Blacks were somewhat pioneering in this area, on a relatively basic level, in that they studied in depth how every international referee interpreted the rules for key areas of the game; the breakdown and rucks and mauls, whether they understood the dark arts of the front rows at scrummage time, whether they spotted infringements to rolling mauls and the like. Legendary AB flanker, Richie McCaw, made a career out of it and when one reviews video of his era, it's easy to see how the AB's diligence benefitted them. We see the same attitudes and practices utilised by Rassie Erasmus currently, who took a failing Springbok squad and led them to successive RWC titles. What areas might we focus upon?
I simply ask as I fear without some sensible and informed input, this appointment will be another xG 'debate' whereby this poor chap is routinely dismissed as useless and unnecessary before he's even begun. It might be beneficial if new appointments were at least given a period of grace and perhaps some understanding might afford him that, on this forum at least.
Sorry, lots of questions, but my impression is that you have a grasp of the subject matter that others do not. If you've no wish to pop your head above the parapets though, you have my full understanding! 

They never had that list in League 1 .  In fact it was pretty much buy one get one free in seats.  That's the mark off how big a club is too me.  If things get s*** do you desert in droves.

Rest in Peace Willie Carlin
love to his family and friends
my first winger that got me out of my seat. . . Well he would have done except I was standing up getting bruised in kids corner!
thanks for the memories, I’m a bit emotional 🥲 🖤 🐏 

The club have been amazing with Reuben. Rammie came down to the Children’s Hospital to see him. Some of the players and staff have sent messages. It makes such a difference to his recovery. 
 

Just an update for everyone as I have had a few messages from Derby fans on other platforms asking how he is. 
 
Reuben is doing well and is now spending more time at home during the weekends. He is still an inpatient at Birmingham Children’s Hospital. His sounds are developing and we have had glimpses of ‘mummy’ and ‘daddy’. He is starting to stand now but he is still a while from walking. His right arm is starting to get movement at the elbow but nothing at the wrist or hand yet…. So it’s all heading in the right direction. 

On disagreement, I think the slogan from Wisdom of Crowds works nicely  "Agreement is nice. But disagreement is better. And we mean that."
On Warne, It's great he's took us up but I don't feel he should get that much slack on the rope. This year we need to avoid relegation simple as that. If we're in the bottom 3 after 15-20 games Warne should be gone. We did go up but that was to be expected in the second year. Warne's record makes me quite nervous about his capability at that level I won't lie. But he's got to be given a chance to succeed or fail on his own merits. 

It's not really odd though, those terms are being thrown about because it's true to those people's experience of posting on here. My own engagement with the forum has very much been affected by it, and I'm certainly not just making it up.
 
(very long post incoming)
Everyone's allowed an opinion just long as they remember that a group of about 10 posters (not including yourself) have decided which opinions are the correct opinions, and that if you have a view that doesn't align with them - or if you offer up any kind of critical thought whatsoever that puts even the slightest doubt on the agreed narrative -  you should expect to be mercilessly ganged up on, ridiculed, accused of trying to ruin the mood for others etc. Every slight criticism (and even stuff which isn't a criticism) will be portrayed as a stick you're beating the manager with.
All 'Kevin' had to do yesterday was point out that Warne didn't take over the squad in a decimated state (fact) and that most teams would be more than happy with the squad we assembled in a few short weeks (fact) and there was a whole page of rebuttal, piss taking and propaganda in response within a few hours.
Aside from a very remote few (including yourself), nobody else will take the time to try to understand where someone's coming from with their post before attacking it, or to consider that they may have some valid points, they'll just try to find the first thing they can jump on and dismiss both the person and their opinion. 
If you're extra lucky you'll get someone publicly praying that you get banned from the forum. Lovely behaviour.
If you don't like it then apparently you should just suck it up, grow a pair, stop being oversensitive etc ("it's your problem"), stick people on ignore and just allow yourself and anyone else willing to put their head above the parapet to be rudely and aggressively dismissed (as was pointed out earlier about one particularly egregious offender), talked to like you're an idiot, and be subject to countless, mostly unprovoked (unless of course you count someone having a different opinion to the echo chamber as provocation), insidious little digs worded carefully enough not to fall foul of the rules of the board. 
Anyone who's spoken up about this has been accused of 'playing the victim card', and had a string of laughing emojis directed toward them while the ranks are closed on the notion that there's any kind of bullying (or whatever else you wish to call it) going on. The response to 'bullying' behaviour (again, call it whatever name you're most comfortable with) being called out has been to treat it exactly as a gang of bullies would. It's almost poetic. 
There will be a demand for evidence, but those demanding it know full well that the aforementioned insidious comments aren't directly quotable and and don't stand on their own as examples one can pick out, or report (as useless as it would be to do so when such comments are actively encouraged and perpetrated by some of those who'd see the report), but form the backbone of the hostile and oppressive atmosphere that some of us feel is very much alive and (sadly) thriving on this forum. 
The effect is either that some feel they can't post at all (which then gets picked up on as a 'victory' for shutting up the naysayers), that they have to be careful of what they say (walking on eggshells) or that they feel goaded into responding negatively - which just invites further ridicule. Let's punish and demean people for reacting though, give those who elicit the reaction a big old round of applause and a pat on the back.
Everything positive that's been achieved under Warne gets weaponised, any potential negatives for next season preemptively dismissed before they can even be voiced (and immediately met with ire the second they are), and it looks like that will be the case for as long as he's in charge because some posters simply can't treat others with any degree of civility.
The pretense that all this is all just a response to abuse aimed at Warne or aimed at posters for supporting Warne, or 'fighting back against those who want this to think we had a s*** season'  has long since worn out any validity it may have once had, and even that was utterly disproportionate to begin with. 
This forum is still fun if you look in the right areas, but for the past 6 months or so its largely felt mean spirited, hateful, and almost controlled by posters who's primary thought process is that 'negative' posters are there to be attacked from a position of strength afforded to them by our results. It's really quite dispiriting.
 

I disagree, the landscape of the Championship has changed and Clowes absolutely has the money to be competitive. If he believes that he has the capacity both financially and directionally to take this club into the Premier League then why would he give up a percentage of his ownership, for another voice in the boardroom and someone potentially impacting his vision for the club - and hopefully his future payout from the success of his decisions? 
I think he would consider investors, but I suspect that he also trusts himself to be able to achieve on his own at the club. 

One of those that started us on our way to become League Champions.
RiP Willie.

I agree it's a minority, but I didn't want to pick out individuals. I understand fans' desire for us not to be left behind, but I find the eagerness to become yet another club snapped up by US owners a bit sad. When we were in trouble and going under, the best America could do was Kirschner. GSE were responsible owners, but having dealt with Americans in business, I'm not a fan.

Yes. Lets not forget we have got out of league 1 in double quick time. We could very easily have been doing a Bolton and spending a couple more seasons in it. We are a big club, eventually we will rise but we need to build some foundations for a while. I think we are in for a GSE type period of incremental improvement for a couple of seasons. But there will come a point if we are managed carefully that we become a plum opportunity for an investor   

I see everyone is staying nice and patient. Willing to throw everything up in the air and take risks, just to see a premier league game at Pride Park. Unfortunately for them, I don't think Clowes will take chances with the Rams' existence and they'll just have to chill their bones until he believes he's found the right investment partner.

Because they're a big city one club team that taps into the 'Yorkshire' brand in a way no other Yorkshire club does. That said, I would be pretty dismayed as a Leeds fan letting Red Bull into the ownership structure given how they've used other clubs to purely promote their brand. 
p.s. Leeds don't see us as rivals exactly. Derby are disliked in the city still because of the playoff semifinal & with the older lads, resentment at Clough's far superior legacy to Revie & Derby stopping them winning the double in 1972. We would rank in their top 10 of most disliked but not in the top 5. Leeds will benchmark themselves against other big cities (Manchester, Liverpool, London clubs). Their perception of us a smaller foe won't be helped by some of our away crowds at Elland Road - that needs to improve going forward.
Its fair to say we're on opposite sides of this - I can't think of anything worse than having to 'trust' the intentions of any new foreign owner with no links to Derby. Just out of interest, would you want Clowes involved at all post any takeover? Observing the decision making at clubs like Birmingham & Hull has been jaw dropping at times & the lack of actual football knowledge negates any perceived financial advantage. Wrexham & Leicester have often been lauded as examples of highly successful foreign takeovers but the former has been mainly due to bullying impoverished rivals in National League/League Two (that won't work as well next season) & Leicester have been consistent FFP cheats since the Thais took over but unlike us, have been lucky at key times to avoid sanction.
Given the mood music of FFP/P&S and the medium term likelihood of a football regulator, I would prefer Derby were run sensibly along a model of progressive improvement - much in the same way Coventry, Luton & Preston have been run over the past 5 years. The key difference is our turnover is far superior to all of those 3 clubs so there shouldn't be issues around competitiveness if we have the right backroom & management team. Taking that route previously also brought us closest to promotion to the Prem - GSE under Clough & ultimately McClaren.

Understand your perspective.
 
I would really like to see us in the PL in my lifetime and the chances of that occurring with DC (our hero)  are fairly remote.  So I’d accept the risks associated with change of ownership if the change greatly improves the likelihood of promotion. 
I’d add that - despite Boehly’s antics at Chelsea - the risk of new ownership would be modest if the buyer were the owner of a major US sports franchise. I would love to think DC is trying to get his wares in front of some of those owners. There is a lot of competition for their patronage and sadly clubs in the south have more appeal. 

Because they're a big city one club team that taps into the 'Yorkshire' brand in a way no other Yorkshire club does. That said, I would be pretty dismayed as a Leeds fan letting Red Bull into the ownership structure given how they've used other clubs to purely promote their brand. 
p.s. Leeds don't see us as rivals exactly. Derby are disliked in the city still because of the playoff semifinal & with the older lads, resentment at Clough's far superior legacy to Revie & Derby stopping them winning the double in 1972. We would rank in their top 10 of most disliked but not in the top 5. Leeds will benchmark themselves against other big cities (Manchester, Liverpool, London clubs). Their perception of us a smaller foe won't be helped by some of our away crowds at Elland Road - that needs to improve going forward.
Its fair to say we're on opposite sides of this - I can't think of anything worse than having to 'trust' the intentions of any new foreign owner with no links to Derby. Just out of interest, would you want Clowes involved at all post any takeover? Observing the decision making at clubs like Birmingham & Hull has been jaw dropping at times & the lack of actual football knowledge negates any perceived financial advantage. Wrexham & Leicester have often been lauded as examples of highly successful foreign takeovers but the former has been mainly due to bullying impoverished rivals in National League/League Two (that won't work as well next season) & Leicester have been consistent FFP cheats since the Thais took over but unlike us, have been lucky at key times to avoid sanction.
Given the mood music of FFP/P&S and the medium term likelihood of a football regulator, I would prefer Derby were run sensibly along a model of progressive improvement - much in the same way Coventry, Luton & Preston have been run over the past 5 years. The key difference is our turnover is far superior to all of those 3 clubs so there shouldn't be issues around competitiveness if we have the right backroom & management team. Taking that route previously also brought us closest to promotion to the Prem - GSE under Clough & ultimately McClaren.

Because they're a big city one club team that taps into the 'Yorkshire' brand in a way no other Yorkshire club does. That said, I would be pretty dismayed as a Leeds fan letting Red Bull into the ownership structure given how they've used other clubs to purely promote their brand. 
p.s. Leeds don't see us as rivals exactly. Derby are disliked in the city still because of the playoff semifinal & with the older lads, resentment at Clough's far superior legacy to Revie & Derby stopping them winning the double in 1972. We would rank in their top 10 of most disliked but not in the top 5. Leeds will benchmark themselves against other big cities (Manchester, Liverpool, London clubs). Their perception of us a smaller foe won't be helped by some of our away crowds at Elland Road - that needs to improve going forward.
Its fair to say we're on opposite sides of this - I can't think of anything worse than having to 'trust' the intentions of any new foreign owner with no links to Derby. Just out of interest, would you want Clowes involved at all post any takeover? Observing the decision making at clubs like Birmingham & Hull has been jaw dropping at times & the lack of actual football knowledge negates any perceived financial advantage. Wrexham & Leicester have often been lauded as examples of highly successful foreign takeovers but the former has been mainly due to bullying impoverished rivals in National League/League Two (that won't work as well next season) & Leicester have been consistent FFP cheats since the Thais took over but unlike us, have been lucky at key times to avoid sanction.
Given the mood music of FFP/P&S and the medium term likelihood of a football regulator, I would prefer Derby were run sensibly along a model of progressive improvement - much in the same way Coventry, Luton & Preston have been run over the past 5 years. The key difference is our turnover is far superior to all of those 3 clubs so there shouldn't be issues around competitiveness if we have the right backroom & management team. Taking that route previously also brought us closest to promotion to the Prem - GSE under Clough & ultimately McClaren.

Because they're a big city one club team that taps into the 'Yorkshire' brand in a way no other Yorkshire club does. That said, I would be pretty dismayed as a Leeds fan letting Red Bull into the ownership structure given how they've used other clubs to purely promote their brand. 
p.s. Leeds don't see us as rivals exactly. Derby are disliked in the city still because of the playoff semifinal & with the older lads, resentment at Clough's far superior legacy to Revie & Derby stopping them winning the double in 1972. We would rank in their top 10 of most disliked but not in the top 5. Leeds will benchmark themselves against other big cities (Manchester, Liverpool, London clubs). Their perception of us a smaller foe won't be helped by some of our away crowds at Elland Road - that needs to improve going forward.
Its fair to say we're on opposite sides of this - I can't think of anything worse than having to 'trust' the intentions of any new foreign owner with no links to Derby. Just out of interest, would you want Clowes involved at all post any takeover? Observing the decision making at clubs like Birmingham & Hull has been jaw dropping at times & the lack of actual football knowledge negates any perceived financial advantage. Wrexham & Leicester have often been lauded as examples of highly successful foreign takeovers but the former has been mainly due to bullying impoverished rivals in National League/League Two (that won't work as well next season) & Leicester have been consistent FFP cheats since the Thais took over but unlike us, have been lucky at key times to avoid sanction.
Given the mood music of FFP/P&S and the medium term likelihood of a football regulator, I would prefer Derby were run sensibly along a model of progressive improvement - much in the same way Coventry, Luton & Preston have been run over the past 5 years. The key difference is our turnover is far superior to all of those 3 clubs so there shouldn't be issues around competitiveness if we have the right backroom & management team. Taking that route previously also brought us closest to promotion to the Prem - GSE under Clough & ultimately McClaren.

Because they're a big city one club team that taps into the 'Yorkshire' brand in a way no other Yorkshire club does. That said, I would be pretty dismayed as a Leeds fan letting Red Bull into the ownership structure given how they've used other clubs to purely promote their brand. 
p.s. Leeds don't see us as rivals exactly. Derby are disliked in the city still because of the playoff semifinal & with the older lads, resentment at Clough's far superior legacy to Revie & Derby stopping them winning the double in 1972. We would rank in their top 10 of most disliked but not in the top 5. Leeds will benchmark themselves against other big cities (Manchester, Liverpool, London clubs). Their perception of us a smaller foe won't be helped by some of our away crowds at Elland Road - that needs to improve going forward.
Its fair to say we're on opposite sides of this - I can't think of anything worse than having to 'trust' the intentions of any new foreign owner with no links to Derby. Just out of interest, would you want Clowes involved at all post any takeover? Observing the decision making at clubs like Birmingham & Hull has been jaw dropping at times & the lack of actual football knowledge negates any perceived financial advantage. Wrexham & Leicester have often been lauded as examples of highly successful foreign takeovers but the former has been mainly due to bullying impoverished rivals in National League/League Two (that won't work as well next season) & Leicester have been consistent FFP cheats since the Thais took over but unlike us, have been lucky at key times to avoid sanction.
Given the mood music of FFP/P&S and the medium term likelihood of a football regulator, I would prefer Derby were run sensibly along a model of progressive improvement - much in the same way Coventry, Luton & Preston have been run over the past 5 years. The key difference is our turnover is far superior to all of those 3 clubs so there shouldn't be issues around competitiveness if we have the right backroom & management team. Taking that route previously also brought us closest to promotion to the Prem - GSE under Clough & ultimately McClaren.