Nigel in numbers

[Albert]

Great post Albert.

I'd like to see graphs detailing our finances when Clough took over to the present day.

Those would likely make for amazing reading and highlight just what a great job the guy is doing.

Add a fairly derisory two million a year onto Cloughs wage bill and his stats would be up there with the very best IMO.

This would be very interesting and it is a key part of the situation in truth. Its one thing for people to argue that Nigel has had his hands tied and done well on a limited budget, but it would be nice to know exactly how tied. Maybe not the finances of the club as a whole, which whilst interesting if someone is trying to say "YANKS OUT", in this case all that really matters is the wages, transfer fees and such. Sadly I don't know or actually think we can get that kind of information, so it basically just becomes guess work on that front.

[top 6 finish]

So how come we haven't been promoted yet?

[DCFCfranco]

how long did that take

[Ash]

It's official, we're average

[Leicester Ram]

That deserves

[davenportram]

All these figures are in various threads! Could the lovely mods bundle them together? The key one for me which is in another thread, is the win percentage from when we score first and when we concede first, that to me is a stat everyone must see.

You can always find the post using the search function, then click quote and copy the contents in the reply box - come back to this one and paste it as a reply to this thread.

It's hard sometimes to find time to do nice things like that round family and work. If I come across any i will copy them - unless I am on my phone.

[uttoxram75]

This would be very interesting and it is a key part of the situation in truth. Its one thing for people to argue that Nigel has had his hands tied and done well on a limited budget, but it would be nice to know exactly how tied. Maybe not the finances of the club as a whole, which whilst interesting if someone is trying to say "YANKS OUT", in this case all that really matters is the wages, transfer fees and such. Sadly I don't know or actually think we can get that kind of information, so it basically just becomes guess work on that front.

Minitab Albert?

[BondJovi]

One last point. Just so I can put the numbers about late goals into context I had a little think about what the numbers meant. So it got me thinking, what percentage of games that we are winning do we draw, losing that we draw or drawing do we win or lose in those vital last 10 minutes of games. The key is being able to get it from what I already had. Now, I'm pretty sure this is right, but its also possible that's I'm made a monumental mistake here, so I'll go go through it below for anyone who is actually interested, but first, the numbers:

Draw from winning: 14%

Draw from losing: 3%

Win from level: 11%

Loss from level: 24%

If correct, those figures are not so good... Its hardly disastrous, I'd hate to see what a team that got relegated would get from this kind of analysis, but it certainly isn't great either.

So, for anyone interested or who thinks I might have made a mistake, I'd ask that you have a look at the logic below just to see if I've made a mistake. If I have, I'd like to know so I can correct this before anyone decides that this is some divine truth:

We want to know the percentage of games that we have gone on to draw from a winning position in the last 10 minutes of a game. We have the number of wins, we have the number of games where the side have given away a lead to draw and we have the number of games that we have won having been level. The key here is what the score was going into the late stages of the game, and as such we should take account of other games where the scores changed in a significant manner. As such:

Draw from win% = Draws from winning positions / (Draws from winning positions + Wins - Wins from level positions)

That is, the total number of winning positions we were in was the number of draws we received from winning positions added to the number of wins minus the number of wins that came from level positions. This logic was then used for the other possible outcomes (i.e. draws from losing positions).

As an added bonus for reading that, or reading the last paragraph in the post: Last season we won 9% of games from drawing positions, lost the same amount, we didn't get a single late equaliser and we only got let a lead slip to draw 6% of the time.

Thanks for reading.

Some more of the work!

[Alph]

You just know Albert is going to ask for donations.

Nice work btw.

[Day]

You just know Albert is going to ask for donations.

Nice work btw.

Just use the link on the main menu, I will pass on a small percentage to Albert to cover the graphs

[England Ram]

Brill work Albert.

Shows some interesting data.

[Uptherams]

Excellent post. This clearly shows that NC is not doing good enough. Someone needs to have a word with him.

[Bris Vegas]

As a side note, here is a plot showing the goals scored and conceded times for last season alone:

WIx5w

Note how few goals were scored or conceded late on in games. As stated in another thread, it turns out that Nigel's tactic of sending on a defender (for example, Buxton) late on in place of a midfielder or striker, actually worked. The side didn't conceded in the last 10 minutes or injury time once when this was done. We did however conceded a couple of late goals when it wasn't done though, as can be seen above.

First of all, a big like for this post as it must have taken ages and it's really well structured..

Secondly, I've banged on about this for god knows how long and it still isn't being addressed by the management team.. The mentality towards the end of the games are far too important to be brushed under the table.. They're what you call bonus points and it really can be the difference over a season.. Some teams of equal quality can be seperated by 10-15 points or so just through the latter stages of the game..

For example, (if we take the last 15 minutes of games this season) Derby are already on -3 (2 vs SW and 1 vs BW) points whilst Ipswich for instance are on +3 (1 vs Blackburn and 2 vs Watford).. A 6 point swing after only 2 games..

Last season we only scored 2 late goals all season which is pathetic really, one against Barnsley which didn't influence the result and one against Forest which gained us 2 extra points.. Of the late goals, we threw away 2 points a home to P'Boro and 1 at their place, 1 at home to M'boro, 2 away at Reading... We finished last season on -4.. Incidentally we've never finished with a positive under NC, hence the reason why I say he has a negative mentality in the latter stages..

We won 18 games last season.. One in the final stages.. That meant that (excluding P'Boro, Forest and Readng when were either winning) we needed to score at least once in 29 games (+1 for Forest) in the final 15 minutes or so to win the game.. And we only did it twice (of which only the Forest game had an impact)..

Without checking Cardiffs results last season I'd be inclined to guess that we accumulated more points than them over a season at 75 minutes of each game.. Those final 15 minutes over the season could be the difference.. (We all remember Norwich under Lambert and us under Billy D).

Interesting none the less.

[davenportram]

Bris, as much as I agree that shipping late goals is a problem I dont think its simply a case of the higher you finish the more points you win through scoring late goals or the less points you lose through conceding late goals.

Using cardiff as an example as you did their last 20 minute result changing goals are as follows

Points gained - +11

west ham (H) +2

Ipswich (H) +1

Forest(A)+2

Watford (A),+1

Portsmouth(H) +2

Bristol (A)+2

Birmingham (H)+1

Points Lost -20

Portsmouth (A) -2

Hull (A) -1

Peterborough (A)-3

Leeds (A) -2

Boro (A) -1

Blackpool (A)-3

Brighton (A) -2

Coventry (H) -2

Watford (H) -2

Leeds (H) -2

So Cardiff are a massive 9 points worse off when balancing last 20 minute goals scored and conceded which changed results.

In other words if you score enough during the first 70 minutes you will likely hold on to enough wins to make the playoffs.

The flip side is if you're like peterborough and are just good at coming from behind you probay won't go down but won't go up either.

[uttoxram75]

Lies, damn lies and statistics....

[p.shilton]

All very well but are we entertained? I love supporting my team and no amount of jiggery pokery and fancy graphs is going to change anything. As long as we have some exciting games and improve on our league position each season I couldn't give a monkeys- because logically that means we will be promoted in the absolute maximum of 10 years but probably much sooner-

SPSS and Excel are very dull and boring and the only stat that matters is how far we are up that little table we call the Championship each May (and how many drubbings we gave the scum of course)

[twinkletoes]

the yanks out stats will be posted on dcfc website around the end of the game on saturday................ 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='<_<' />

[Bris Vegas]

Bris, as much as I agree that shipping late goals is a problem I dont think its simply a case of the higher you finish the more points you win through scoring late goals or the less points you lose through conceding late goals.

Using cardiff as an example as you did their last 20 minute result changing goals are as follows

Points gained - +11

west ham (H) +2

Ipswich (H) +1

Forest(A)+2

Watford (A),+1

Portsmouth(H) +2

Bristol (A)+2

Birmingham (H)+1

Points Lost -20

Portsmouth (A) -2

Hull (A) -1

Peterborough (A)-3

Leeds (A) -2

Boro (A) -1

Blackpool (A)-3

Brighton (A) -2

Coventry (H) -2

Watford (H) -2

Leeds (H) -2

So Cardiff are a massive 9 points worse off when balancing last 20 minute goals scored and conceded which changed results.

In other words if you score enough during the first 70 minutes you will likely hold on to enough wins to make the playoffs.

The flip side is if you're like peterborough and are just good at coming from behind you probay won't go down but won't go up either.

Where is the Cardiff data in this, I don't see it or I don't understand it?

I haven't bothered to check the other teams but every season or so theres a few teams who seem to have a surge of late goals (Reading and Norwich or recent seasons) and those that seem to be on the end of it (usually us)..

I read somewhere that the season M'Boro went down under Southgate they lost something like 13 points in the final 10 minutes of matches over the season.. They would have been top 10 had games finished after 80 minutes.. Some would say it's irrelevant, some (me included) would say part of that is down to the defensive mentality of Southgate towards the end of games and their style in closing out games was wrong..

Brian McDermott recently mentioned that he'll always try to win.. Sometimes it will backfire (like yesterday vs Chelsea) but over his managerial career at Reading he's had far many more positive results by just trying to win.. I'm not talking about throwing 3 strikers and sticking 5 uptop late on if we're drawing but at least putting pressure on the opposite defence relieves pressure on your own defence.

[Albert]

Some more of the work!

Here is the first half of what you quoted:

I'll reword the questions a bit, but I'll try and answer what you asked, note all of this is to do with the League only and upto the end of last season:

Goals scored and conceded in the first half of games against the second half:

We have scored 79 goals in the first halves of matches and conceded 89. In the second halves of matches we've scored 108 and conceded 133. There is roughly a 2-3 split for both goals scored and conceded in terms of the split between first half and second half scoring.

What is Clough's overall record in terms of wins, losses and draws:

Played: 158

Won: 53 (34%)

Drawn: 35 (22%)

Lost: 70 (44%)

I'll replace the last few questions slightly, mainly because getting exactly those figures would take an extremely long time. The main issue is the fact that score lines can change multiple times over the course of a game, so instead I'll deal with who opened the scoring. However, I feel these questions to be just as instructive:

What is our record like in games where we have scored first:

We have scored first 65 times in the League under Nigel's management. Of these games we've won 43, drawn 12 and lost 10. This represents winning 66%, drawing 18% and losing 15%. To me this is actually a decent record.

As a side note, last season we opened the scoring in 20 matches, of which we won 14, drew 4 and lost 2. In terms of percentages this is winning 70%, drawing 20% and losing 10%. This is actually a fairly good record in truth.

What is our record like in games where we have conceded first:

Under Nigel's management we have conceded first 78 times, resulting in 60 losses, 8 draws and 10 wins. This is a loss percentage of 77%, a draw percentage of 10% and a win percentage of only 13%. This is certainly something that we'd want to improve on in the future, although not conceding first as much would also be a positive.

As another side note last season we conceded first 23 times of which we won 4, drew 3 and lost 16. As percentages this is winning 17%, drawing 13% and losing 70%. This is certainly better than the overall average and considerably better than the 2010/11 season. During 10/11 we conceded first 21 times, less than in 11/12, but we only won 2 and drew 1 with a massive 19 losses. This in terms of a percentage is losing 86%, drawing 5% and winning 9%.

Have we won or lost a game in the last 10 minutes:

No.

What is our overall late game record:

In the last 10 minutes of games:

Draw to win: 4

Draw to loss: 9

Win to draw: 8

Loss to draw: 2

Long story short, not that great. Although, interestingly, from last season:

Draw to win: 1

Draw to loss: 1

Win to draw: 1

Loss to draw: 0

Basically, what few late goals were conceded did little to the scoreline.

*Note, I do hope there are no errors in the above, I have tried to error check it, but its based on a large amount of data and there is always the chance of an error somewhere

I hope that's something along the lines of what you were looking for.

This lead into that second part.

[Albert]

Also for those wondering about points won or lost:

Over the course of Nigel's time with the club we have in the last 10 minutes of games, won an extra 10 points, and lost 25 for a net total of -15 points from those precious last 10 minutes and stoppage time. This doesn't tell the whole story though, so I'll just post the net totals from each year:

08/09: -2

09/10: -2

10/11: -10

11/12: -1

Notice how the 2010/11 season was a complete mess in this respect, during that season we picked up no points in those last 10 minutes, none at all. Interestingly we only picked up 2 last season, but in 2009/10 we picked up +7, although we gave up 9 points that season. This is an interesting result, as I'm sure most (myself included) would have assumed that we'd have been dropping points left right and centre in those last 10 minutes. Except for the 2010/11 season, which was completely unacceptable, we have actually looked alright and strangely enough, this is actually a surprising tick in Clough's favour, at least as far as I'm concerned. That might sound odd, but think about it this way:

Here are some key stats from the 2010/11 season:

- We only won 58% of games where we scored first and lost a whole 21%

- We lost 86% of the time when we conceded first and only won a mere 9%

- We conceded 12 goals in those vital last 10 minutes, whilst only scoring 5 ourselves

- During those 10 minutes at the end of games we let slip of 3 leads to draw and let go of 4 equal positions to lose whilst not picking up one extra point

- This amounted to 10 points given up in those last 10 minutes of games and not a pointed earned

- We had an extraordinary form slump which saw us gain only 19 points over the second half of the season

- Our final finish with 49 points would have seen us relegated in 3 of the last 10 Championship seasons

Put bluntly, it was Nigel's worst season in charge of the side, and it came on the back of a good start which saw us battling for a playoff place around November. The first half of that season actually saw our best form under Nigel (see the second plot in the original post), so to see that start being a part of this season is saddening. So, what on Earth could be considered positive out of this? Well, he fixed many of the problems last year, which to me is a huge tick in the favour of any manager. As some were saying on another thread, one thing they'd want to see from a manager is that he learns from his mistakes and there is some kind of improvement. Put bluntly, there was improvement, quite dramatic improvement in fact. So, in numbers, Nigel's improvement from 2010/11:

Winning after scoring first (losing in brackets):

2010/11: 58% (21%)

2011/12: 70% (10%)

Improvement: +12% (-11%)

Winning after conceding first:

2010/11: 9% (86%)

2011/12: 17% (70%)

Improvement: +8% (-16%)

What's interesting in the above is that we were on par in terms of winning games where we scored first, that is, we won as many when we scored first as lost when we conceded first, by percent at least. What's more striking though is we actually won more games having gone behind, that we lost having taken the lead, by percent at least. Another interesting comparison is:

Scored first in (Conceded first in brackets):

2010/11: 19 games (22 games)

2011/12: 20 games (23 games)

Improvement: -1 Game (+1 Game)

Well, no improvement there, but the key is that we improved how we played after scoring or conceding, we actually capitalised on good starts and turned around poor ones better. This is a huge plus to Nigel in that there is a very marked improvement.

Next up is those vital last 10 minutes. Let's start with goals:

Goals scored in the last 10 minutes (goals conceded in last 10 minutes in brackets):

2010/11: 5 scored (12 conceded)

2011/12: 2 scored (5 conceded)

Improvement: -3 scored (-7 conceded)

Whilst the overall number was no better, what is striking here is that there was such a drop in goals late on overall. It went from 17 in total in 2010/11 to a mere 7 last season! It seems that after dropping so many points in 2010/11 Nigel basically decided to just stop the games late on, and it really does show in this instance. Of course, you can score or conceded many goals late on that have no effect on the result, like Bolton's goal earlier in the week. With this in mind, let's have a look at how well the team could hold onto results and get them when needed late on:

Conceded a late equaliser when leading in last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 19%

2011/12: 6%

Improvement: 13%

Won a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 9%

Lost a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 36%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 27%

Scored a late equaliser when losing in the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 0%

Improvement: 0%

Its not all rosy here, let's not kid ourselves about that, but there is certainly a very clear improvement. The main part of the improvement is the fact that we have stopped conceding late goals that have lost us games or given away wins, this is certainly a huge positive, not that we've seen it yet this season. Let's not just hide it away in a dark corner though, we aren't getting results late in games, we just aren't. The one result we gained late on was beating Forest 1-0, Buxton's goal, but beyond that we got nothing. Nothing at all! In two seasons, we've gained 2 points in the last 10 minutes of games! That is a point that really doesn't need to be emphasised! Beyond it though there is some very clear improvement though, we have brought down the number of results we've let slip and the number of losses we received late on quite dramatically, and this is a very good thing to remember. So long as what happened against Sheffield Wednesday (and Ssausagehorpe) doesn't become the norm again, and we keep up that kind of record, we can count ourselves as doing fairly well in this department, but we need to start getting late results at some point too. In terms of points changes, see earlier in the post.

So yeah, overall there has been some significant improvement from the 2010/11 to 2011/12 seasons in terms of our ability to push on from a lead and getting a result after going behind, whilst we have also tightened up at the back late on, but the side still doesn't win games (except for one game) or get results when chasing the game in those vital last 10 minutes. Hopefully we'll see further improvement in that department this year. We've had a poor start in this department, but two league games in I wouldn't draw any conclusions yet. If we can't keep our defensive record in those last 10 minute as well as improve on scoring ourselves I don't see us pushing up towards the playoffs, but you never know. Let's hope we have a good season.