Nigel in numbers

[Albert]

Correction to the above, we actually conceded 12 late points in 2010/11, not 10. As it turns out we had lost one game under Nigel's league management from a winning position with 10 minutes to play. I had it listed as a draw to loss, as it turns out it was a win to a loss, hopefully there aren't any more mistakes like this in any of the other data sets. So yeah, we actually only lost 30% going into the last 10 minutes level, but we lost 9% from a winning position. This has caused a number of small changes to the data on the 2010/11 season. Below is the amended version of what is seen in the above post:

08/09: -2

09/10: -2

10/11: -12

11/12: -1

Conceded a late equaliser when leading in last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 18%

2011/12: 6%

Improvement: 12%

Won a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 9%

Lost a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 30%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 21%

Scored a late equaliser when losing in the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 0%

Improvement: 0%

Sorry about that, I'm glad the error was found. If anyone else finds any other errors or anything they think might be an error, please tell me so I can correct any errors for the future.

[Albert]

Corrections to other posts caused by the error:

Score changes in the last 10 minutes:

Draw from winning: 8

Draw from losing: 2

Win from level: 4

Loss from level: 8

Loss from winning: 1

Or as percentages:

Draw from winning: 14%

Draw from losing: 3%

Win from level: 11%

Loss from level: 22%

Loss from winning: 2%

[maydrakin]

I think this gives very good evidence as to why there is a higher degree of evidence surrounding the negative views on how Clough is doing.

The mindset after a match is usually based on the last 15 minutes play - for example after the Sheff Wed match we came away feeling like we'd lost.

The fact that at the final whistle we have adopted a negative mindset as we have negative equity in the perception of how we played is the emotive value we assign to the whole performance.

The late goal against us (and looking at Albert's stats, we concede far more in the second half) leaves us with a feeling of defeat. If we had conceded twice in the first half and then recovered, there would be a far greater amount of positivity and feeling that the team had 'character' rather than the sense of having blown the lead again. Nevertheless we would still be in the same position.

As a fan, it is harder to divorce yourself from the final result than how we feel about being 'robbed'.

Or maybe it's just me!

[davenportram]

Where is the Cardiff data in this, I don't see it or I don't understand it?

I haven't bothered to check the other teams but every season or so theres a few teams who seem to have a surge of late goals (Reading and Norwich or recent seasons) and those that seem to be on the end of it (usually us)..

I read somewhere that the season M'Boro went down under Southgate they lost something like 13 points in the final 10 minutes of matches over the season.. They would have been top 10 had games finished after 80 minutes.. Some would say it's irrelevant, some (me included) would say part of that is down to the defensive mentality of Southgate towards the end of games and their style in closing out games was wrong..

Brian McDermott recently mentioned that he'll always try to win.. Sometimes it will backfire (like yesterday vs Chelsea) but over his managerial career at Reading he's had far many more positive results by just trying to win.. I'm not talking about throwing 3 strikers and sticking 5 uptop late on if we're drawing but at least putting pressure on the opposite defence relieves pressure on your own defence.

Come on Bris now your just being obtuse. The results I've listed are points gained in the last 20 minutes by Cardiff and points lost in the last 20 minutes by Cardiff.

They lost 20 points in the last 20 minutes, if they hadn't they'd have been top.

They only gained 11 points in the last 20 minutes do they are Net -9 points through late goals scored and conceded.

[RamNut]

If you want chapter and verse on the accounts go to the equally excellent analysis by swiss ram

http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/derby-countys-american-dream.html

[davenportram]

Just so we are comparing like for like Cardiff were -4 points due to goals conceded/scored during the last 15 minutes. The same as us.

(they went from drawing to winning 3 times, losing to drawing twice but never from losing to winning,

They also went from winning to losing once, winning to drawing 4 times and drawing to losing once)

To back up your argument that points won or lost in the last 15 minutes of games made the difference between us and teams above us you need to do this for all teams.

There may be one team who moves up the table due to late goals scored but that doesn't mean it is true that all top teams score more late goals or lose less points in the last 15 minutes than we do.

[GboroRam]

Comparing season by season, of course our performance last season will be a big improvement on the one before. We were pony the season before, and league position tells you we held on to more wins in the following season.

Interesting analysis but I don't think it tells us anything we didn't already know - other than perhaps that the results don't change as much as people think in the last 10 minutes of games (from last season anyway).

[davenportram]

Here's the top 6 net points change during the last 15 minutes of games

Cardiff -4

Reading 19

Southampton 6

West Ham -7

Blackpool 0

Birmingham 1

As you can see the two automatic promotion teams were well in the positive, but west ham were -7 and came in only 2 points behind Southampton.

Cardiff were the same as us, Blackpool only 4 better and Birmingham only 1 better. Even had we matched their points return from the last 15 minutes we would still have been outside the top 6.

I think that this shows that the first 75 minutes of games is where points are really won and lost over the whole season (Southampton got 6% of their total points through exchanges in the final 15 minutes, the others even less. The onnly one who's final points tally consisted of a significant percentage from the final 15 minutes exchanges was reading - showing that you need that resilience to be able to storm up the league).

When combined with the fact that (from Alberts figures in another thread)

Going into the last 10 minutes we will:

- from a winning position we won 94% of the time

- from a level position we got a result 91% of the time

- from a losing position we lost 100% of the time

the only area we actually need to work on from last season is what we do when we are losing going into the closing stages. Perhaps with the increased options we have on the bench (Sammon, Robinson, Bennet, Tyson) we may be able to change things a bit and get a late goal (as we nearly did against Bolton)

[Albert]

Comparing season by season, of course our performance last season will be a big improvement on the one before. We were pony the season before, and league position tells you we held on to more wins in the following season.

Interesting analysis but I don't think it tells us anything we didn't already know - other than perhaps that the results don't change as much as people think in the last 10 minutes of games (from last season anyway).

The take away message really does seem to be that the second half of 2010/11 was a complete disaster that, if it has started earlier could have very easily seen us having an away trip to Huish Park last season. The other thing it shows is that despite failing against Sheffield Wednesday, Nigel's tactic of sending an extra defender on actually worked very well and that our record of dropping more points than we gain late on isn't actually that bad. The fact we only dropped a net 1 point in those last 10 minutes last season is quite a clear sign of this, not to mention that we dropped no points when Nigel actually made those defensive substitutions.

[uttoxram75]

The main significance of winning or equalising late on is the fans feelgood factor.

[notts_ram]

Correction to the above, we actually conceded 12 late points in 2010/11, not 10. As it turns out we had lost one game under Nigel's league management from a winning position with 10 minutes to play. I had it listed as a draw to loss, as it turns out it was a win to a loss, hopefully there aren't any more mistakes like this in any of the other data sets. So yeah, we actually only lost 30% going into the last 10 minutes level, but we lost 9% from a winning position. This has caused a number of small changes to the data on the 2010/11 season. Below is the amended version of what is seen in the above post:

08/09: -2

09/10: -2

10/11: -12

11/12: -1

Conceded a late equaliser when leading in last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 18%

2011/12: 6%

Improvement: 12%

Won a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 9%

Lost a game late on when level going into the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 30%

2011/12: 9%

Improvement: 21%

Scored a late equaliser when losing in the last 10 minutes:

2010/11: 0%

2011/12: 0%

Improvement: 0%

Sorry about that, I'm glad the error was found. If anyone else finds any other errors or anything they think might be an error, please tell me so I can correct any errors for the future.

You should never take a percentage of a percentage

[Albert]

You should never take a percentage of a percentage

Where did I take a percentage of a percentage?

You're partly right though as taking the differences of percentages as I did there can give the false impression that it is a percent different of the percentages.

[Duracell]

Do fans have access to prozone stats? I'd love to see how much fitness corellates with the goals.

If you have a team full of young and unproven players who have never played a full season of football, you can't expect them to be on it for 90 minutes against teams just down from the Premier League, like Bolton. Your Tom Naylors, Will Hughes', Frank Fieldings, John Brayfords et al wouldn't have had two seasons worth of appearances between them before they started playing for us.

Clough often talks about "digging in" at the end of games too. 120 minutes against Ssausagehorpe on the Tuesday, and after 70 minutes of football on Satdee, we're getting bulldozed.

[Albert]

Do fans have access to prozone stats? I'd love to see how much fitness corellates with the goals.

If you have a team full of young and unproven players who have never played a full season of football, you can't expect them to be on it for 90 minutes against teams just down from the Premier League, like Bolton. Your Tom Naylors, Will Hughes', Frank Fieldings, John Brayfords et al wouldn't have had two seasons worth of appearances between them before they started playing for us.

Clough often talks about "digging in" at the end of games too. 120 minutes against Ssausagehorpe on the Tuesday, and after 70 minutes of football on Satdee, we're getting bulldozed.

False, Brayford had 158 league appearances whilst Fielding had 89 before signing for us. Steve Davies didn't even manage Fielding's total in his 4 seasons with us.

Your point remains valid though. Although I would argue that its not the fitness, but more their ability to hand the games coming thick and fast. There's no reason they can't be incredibly fit players even at a young age, the issue is how well they deal with so many games coming so fast.

[notts_ram]

Where did I take a percentage of a percentage?

You're partly right though as taking the differences of percentages as I did there can give the false impression that it is a percent different of the percentages.

Sorry just being pedantic and bored at work.....you also forgot to quote the stat. confidence in Nigel Clough... zero!

[Duracell]

False, Brayford had 158 league appearances whilst Fielding had 89 before signing for us. Steve Davies didn't even manage Fielding's total in his 4 seasons with us.

Your point remains valid though. Although I would argue that its not the fitness, but more their ability to hand the games coming thick and fast. There's no reason they can't be incredibly fit players even at a young age, the issue is how well they deal with so many games coming so fast.

What I'm talking about it fitness of mind as well as body, so we do agree.

In the cup, lower teams can match the bigger teams for 70 mins but eventually tire. It feels that way with us. We don't sign many players who have played consistently at our level or above, and the ones who do seem to always be facing a battle to remain fit (Tyson, Barker, Green).

[Albert]

What I'm talking about it fitness of mind as well as body, so we do agree.

In the cup, lower teams can match the bigger teams for 70 mins but eventually tire. It feels that way with us. We don't sign many players who have played consistently at our level or above, and the ones who do seem to always be facing a battle to remain fit (Tyson, Barker, Green).

What I find interesting is that Barker didn't seem to have injury trouble before joining us. I hope he does recover, because he is a good player.

Sorry just being pedantic and bored at work.....you also forgot to quote the stat. confidence in Nigel Clough... zero!

Pardon, you're not even being pedantic from what I can tell. No percentage of percentage was taken, either you're entirely wrong in this case or I've drastically missed something here. If you still believe that one was taken, can you please explain where?

Thank you.

[Bris Vegas]

Come on Bris now your just being obtuse. The results I've listed are points gained in the last 20 minutes by Cardiff and points lost in the last 20 minutes by Cardiff.

They lost 20 points in the last 20 minutes, if they hadn't they'd have been top.

They only gained 11 points in the last 20 minutes do they are Net -9 points through late goals scored and conceded.

Appologies I didn't undertsand the post.. When you put the other teams for example Birmingham (+1) Bristol City (+2) etc.. I thought that was their points total over a season..

Interesting read, they threw away along with WHU alot of points.. Interesting that both Malky McKay was a defender and Allardyce has built his teams on defensive mentalities for years they don't actually suprise me that much..

I knew Readings were high but those 19 points are incredible.. The difference between 9th and the top two..

Of course the majority of games are won or lost in the first 75 minutes, but in the last 15 minutes is where you can pick up bonus points.. Those that want the win are for more likely to win than those that are happy with a draw..

Another interesting point about Cardiff.. Last season They didn't win a single home game by 3+ goals and only 2 away games by a 2+ margin (one was against us).. Of all the teams in the top 6 last season over the course of the season they were easily the weakest, and it showed in the playoffs..

Another point about our negative displays especially away from home was the lack of +2 goal margins.. We've actually only won 5 away (two with help of early sending offs for them) games since Clough has been here by a +2 goal margin.. And only once in two years

Plymouth 0-3 Derby 07/02/2009

Forest 1-3 Derby 21/02/2009

Peterborough 0-3 Derby 16/01/2010

Ipswich 0-2 Derby 09/11/2010

Leeds 0-2 Derby 09/04/2012

For me this is also quite frightening..

[Albert]

Appologies I didn't undertsand the post.. When you put the other teams for example Birmingham (+1) Bristol City (+2) etc.. I thought that was their points total over a season..

Interesting read, they threw away along with WHU alot of points.. Interesting that both Malky McKay was a defender and Allardyce has built his teams on defensive mentalities for years they don't actually suprise me that much..

I knew Readings were high but those 19 points are incredible.. The difference between 9th and the top two..

Of course the majority of games are won or lost in the first 75 minutes, but in the last 15 minutes is where you can pick up bonus points.. Those that want the win are for more likely to win than those that are happy with a draw..

Another interesting point about Cardiff.. Last season They didn't win a single home game by 3+ goals and only 2 away games by a 2+ margin (one was against us).. Of all the teams in the top 6 last season over the course of the season they were easily the weakest, and it showed in the playoffs..

Another point about our negative displays especially away from home was the lack of +2 goal margins.. We've actually only won 5 away (two with help of early sending offs for them) games since Clough has been here by a +2 goal margin.. And only once in two years

Plymouth 0-3 Derby 07/02/2009

Forest 1-3 Derby 21/02/2009

Peterborough 0-3 Derby 16/01/2010

Ipswich 0-2 Derby 09/11/2010

Leeds 0-2 Derby 09/04/2012

For me this is also quite frightening..

Why is this frightening? I'd say that this is more or less expected...

In fact, this seems even more normal considering that we've won what... 18 away games in Nigel's time here. We've still got that 2 goal win in 28% of away wins. Sure, a mere 18 away wins means we've only got a 23% win record on the road, but hey... Forest have finished third with 17% win record on the road whilst Cardiff have finished outside the playoffs but level with 5th on points and goal difference with a mere 22% record. Honestly, I don't think its worrying, it would be nice if we won more away games, and win them by more goals, but ultimately it isn't a requirement of anything. It seems you've just picked one stat at random and declared it to be much more important than it really is.

[RamNut]

Where did I take a percentage of a percentage?

You're partly right though as taking the differences of percentages as I did there can give the false impression that it is a percent different of the percentages.

Are you a quantity surveyor?