Cambs Utd V Derby County: Player Ratings

[brady1993]

Wildsmith 7.5 - Really solid performance with some excellent handling.

Cashin 8 - Excellent really. Bailed out Davies a couple times and was distribution was really strong.

Davies 6 - Shaky performance first half. Grew into the game second half.

Chester 6.5 - Bits of really loose passing at times and prone to an aimless punt or two. Didn't do a deal wrong defensively but didn't stand out particularly.

 

Hourihane 6.5 - Solid if a bit unspectacular. Prone to forcing things a bit too much. Should have passed to Collins to get the 2nd earlier. Started to really fade an hour in. 

 

Knight 6 - A bit of a quiet game for Knight. Few moments of being loose on the ball and a few rare moments of him not particularly protecting the ball well. Looked off his usual pace especially after 50 minutes or so.

 

Mendez-Laing 6.5 - Did most of everything asked of him. Few dangerous runs and times his final ball could have been better. Faded badly 2nd half and started to play a lot looser both on and off the ball.

 

Bird ? - 8.5 Ran the midfield. Looks to be enjoying the amount of freedom he's getting. Almost opened them a few times before finally doing so for Collins goal.

 

Dobbin 7 - Solid job all round. Was a nuisance and full of running to stretch them

 

Collins 9 (MOM) - Two well taken goals, good link up play and never stopped pressing and harrying. Can't ask for more really.

 

Barkhuizen 6.5 - Similar to NML. Stuck to his role. Kept running at them but final ball could have better and faded after an hour.

 

Sibley 6.5 - Not a whole lot of time to make an impact. But pressed and harried and got into good positions.

 

Osula 6.5 - Looks a handful. Can argue that he would very good bit of play but oersonally I thought he got greedy after initially good play

 

Forsyth 6.5 - Ran up and down the line and added needed energy without doing a whole lot of note.

[angieram]

Wildsmith 7

Cashin 8

Davies 6

Chester 7

Hourihane 6.5 

Knight 6.5

Mendez-Laing 6.5

Bird ? 8.5

Dobbin 6.6

Collins 9

Barkhuizen 7

Sibley 6

Osula 6.5

Forsyth 7

[leroyoftherovers]

On 01/10/2022 at 17:07, Ellafella said:

Half -marks allowed; please rate all subs. Closes Monday @ 18:00. Results  by Thursday 22:00. Average is 6.00. Therefore when a sub steps on the pitch he is on 6 - that's the baseline. 

Wildsmith.      7

Cashin.           7

Davies.           6.5

Chester.          7

Hourihane.      7

Knight.             7

Mendez-Laing.  7

Bird ?              7.5

Dobbin.             7

Collins.              8

Barkhuizen.       7

Sibley.               6

Osula                6.5

Forsyth.             6

 

[sage]

@Ellafella are you able to do a split on Knights rating at RB and in midfield?

[Ellafella]

57 minutes ago, sage said:

@Ellafella are you able to do a split on Knights rating at RB and in midfield?

Yes; I’ll post the ratings later. He’s played 3 times in midfield this season. 

[Malty]

Wildsmith 7

Chester 7

Davies 6

cashin 7

MML 5

hourihane 5

Bird 7

knight 8

barky 5

Dobbin 4

collins 8

subs 

osulo  7

sibley  6

fozzy 6

 

 

[europia]

Wildsmith 7.5

Cashin 6.5

Davies 7

Chester 6.5

Hourihane 6

Knight 7

Mendez-Laing 6.5

Bird ? 6.5 

Dobbin 6

Collins 7

Barkhuizen 6

Sibley 6

Osula 6

Forsyth 6

[DavesaRam]

On 01/10/2022 at 17:07, Ellafella said:

Wildsmith 7.5

Cashin  8

Davies  6

Chester  6

Hourihane  5.5

Knight  7

Mendez-Laing 5.5

Bird ? 8.5

Dobbin  6.5

Collins  9

Barkhuizen  7

Sibley  6.5

Osula 6.5

Forsyth  6

Actually Ellafella didn't say all of those numbers. I am on my phone and couldn’t get to copy and paste the names list, so simply quoted the Leeds-based Fella and then added my scores!

Edited October 3, 2022 by DavesaRam

[Ellafella]

23 hours ago, sage said:

@Ellafella are you able to do a split on Knights rating at RB and in midfield?

@sage as requested. I've done a Box & Whisker plot. This tells you what you need to know. What's your interpretation? 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Ellafella

[sage]

2 hours ago, Ellafella said:

@sage as requested. I've done a Box & Whisker plot. This tells you what you need to know. What's your interpretation? 

 

My interpretations are a) there is more data to assess at RB and b) can't you just tell us the average for each position. 

[Ellafella]

1 hour ago, sage said:

My interpretations are a) there is more data to assess at RB and b) can't you just tell us the average for each position. 

OK @sage, I'll give a full explanation of the data tomorrow - but right now I'm having fun watching dogs being savaged by foxes ?

[sage]

Just now, Ellafella said:

OK @sage, I'll give a full explanation of the data tomorrow - but right now I'm having fun watching dogs being savaged by foxes ?

I can't watch this evil play off but I'm enjoying the humiliation by update 

[Ambitious]

3 hours ago, Ellafella said:

@sage as requested. I've done a Box & Whisker plot. This tells you what you need to know. What's your interpretation? 

 

Knight has definitely been better at RB than CM this season, no question, but he needs a few more games in that role. If we continue to play 3-1-4-2 then he will do. 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, Ambitious said:

Knight has definitely been better at RB than CM this season, no question, but he needs a few more games in that role. If we continue to play 3-1-4-2 then he will do. 

Knight has been consistently very good and happens to have played more games at RB - I think that's all there is to it!

[Ellafella]

21 hours ago, sage said:

My interpretations are a) there is more data to assess at RB and b) can't you just tell us the average for each position. 

@sage , Sir, I will try to avoid obfuscatory statistical hyper-verbosity and prolixity here and keep it succinct.

If your question is Do the Fans' Ratings answer the question is Knight better (more highly rated by fans) when he plays midfield rather than when he plays at fullback?, the short answer is "No". The Box and Whisker plots show that his average ratings for either position are pretty identical - He gets an average rating of 7.0/10  for both positions. It is true that this season thus far, he has played more times at FB (N=8) than at Midfield (N=4). Having played more times at FB, he has had more ratings given by fans and hence the spread/distribution  of those ratings is wider (Highest 9.5 and lowest 4.0); Because fan raters inevitably use their own intuitive "internalised" terms of reference when deciding on a score, which are not consistent between raters, the wider range of ratings may be reflective of "rater error" rather than objective and reliable assessments. 

To fully interpret the box plots, the area of each box shows where for each set of scores 50% of them lie. So, when playing midfield (the blue box), 50% of Knight's ratings lie between 6.5/10 and 7.5/10. Similarly, when he has played FB, 50% of his rating scores lie between 6.0/10 and 8.0/10. 

The lines ("whiskers") show the range between which lie the upper quartile of scores and the lower quarter of scores, for each position. Again, it just shows that, although he attracted his highest rating whilst playing FB (9.5), he also attracted his lowest (4.0). 

I could go on at length about sources of variation in rater scores, but I will resist, save to say, they can never be a "pure" reflection of performance. 

The answer to the question is really that, despite being a midfielder, Knight has shown that he can also put in very good displays playing at FB.

The only real test of Knight's importance as a midfielder to Derby County is to compare the outcomes of the games, comparing when he's played midfield and when he's played FB. Whilst the numbers are yet relatively small, and there are confounding variables (eg strength of opposition - he's played midfield mostly in cup games when we have played arguably "weaker" opposition) the outcomes comparison shows:

1. When playing Midfield we have WWWW (4 wins). 100% Wins . 

2. When playing FB, we have WLWDDWLL (3W, 3L & 2D). 38% Wins.

These figures don't "prove" therefore that when Knight plays midfield, we are more likely to win, but they are suggestive of a trend. If that trend continues, we can work out a likely-hood probability which starts to point towards a causal relationship, but as somebody will point out there are multi-factorial forces which determine victory not just a single player. There has been a famous, and oft-repeated statistic, when Ian Rush played for Liverpool which was something like "Liverpool never lose whenever Ian Rush scores") which was somewhat true (indeed a fact) but statistically doubtful because they were Champions of Europe at the time and he was a striker in a very, very, good side so his scoring was not the sole "contributory" factor to them winning ie Statistically, Ian Rush did not cause them to win. 

My own personal view? Knight is wasted at FB (was wasted at FB under Rosenior's reign), and we are more likely to control midfield when he plays there, so play him there. Under Warney, that may change, because Warney's style will empower Bird, and Hourihane to patrol the field more expansively and we will be less dependent on Knight's 2.8 litre V8 engine to run the show. 

Does that answer your question @sage? 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Ellafella

[RoyMac5]

3 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

My own personal view? Knight is wasted at FB (was wasted at FB under Rosenior's reign), and we are more likely to control midfield when he plays there, so play him there...

I understood that bit! ? And agree.

[Ellafella]

2 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I understood that bit! ? And agree.

Great minds think alike, @RoyMac5 - said no pair of Red Dogs fans ever ?