Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[Ken Tram]

This is brilliant because both Cardiff and Hull will both be on "P:25 W:6 D:5 L:14".

Then, using my "spreadsheet", if either of them lose their next game, they'll be on P:26 W:6 D:5 L:15 it would mean:

Oh ... still a target of 42 points!!! (It doesn't shift because of whole games have to be played)

But ... if either team loses their next two games, our points target would drop to 39 points!!!

Even if either team gets 1 draw out of their next two, our target would be 40 points

And ... our current predicted points tally has reached 40!

Isn't it nice that as well as the survival run-in having seemed to be entirely down to us - other teams' losses are really making a difference.

PS. I am scared that as survival become less impossible, our team's mindset may be affected for the worse!

[Ken Tram]

Post Forest (22 Jan 21) (Played 27)
"Derby County: Expected run-in - season-to-date form
   P:27 W:08 D:11 L:08 = 35-21 = 14 Pts
+ P:19 W:06 D:08 L:05 = 26
= P:46 W:14 D:19 L:13 = 61-21 = 40 Pts"

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Cardiff City
P:26 W:06 D:05 L:15 = 23 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:11 D:09 L:26 = 42 Pts (Final Table - season-to-date form)"

Survival Target:
42 Pts
(1.47 Pts per remaining game)"

Derby County: Required run-in - minimum survival form
   P:27 W:08 D:11 L:08 = 35-21 = 14 Pts
+ P:19 W:06 D:10 L:03 = 28
= P:46 W:14 D:21 L:11 = 63-21 = 42 Pts"

The season-to-date form that we need to emulate:
39.7 Pts from 27 games
Equivalent to: Nottingham Forest (8th)"

[Ken Tram]

Post Birmingham (30th Jan @ 3.30) (Played 28)

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Reading
P:28 W:08 D:04 L:16 = 28-6 = 22 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts (Final Table - season-to-date form)

Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.39 Pts per remaining game)

Derby County: Run-in - based on season-to-date form
   P:28 W:08 D:12 L:08 = 36-21 = 15 Pts
+ P:18 W:05 D:08 L:05 = 23
= P:46 W:13 D:20 L:13 = 59-21 = 38 Pts

Derby County: Required run-in - minimum survival form
   P:28 W:08 D:12 L:08 = 36-21 = 15 Pts
+ P:18 W:05 D:10 L:03 = 25
= P:46 W:13 D:22 L:11 = 61-21 = 40 Pts

The team that we need to emulate:
38.9 Pts from 28 games
Equivalent to: Coventry (9th)

[Ken Tram]

First time that the target team has been Reading!

[Ken Tram]

Target points down to 40! (Based-upon season-to-date form.)

We are due to get 38 points (based upon season-to-date form).

If Cardiff lose, then their expected points drops from 42 to 39 points - and our current form will just be one-point off survival form!

[Quagga]

@Ken Tram
any chance of an update in your spreadsheet, maybe after Wed's games

[Ken Tram]

33 minutes ago, Quagga said:

@Ken Tram
any chance of an update in your spreadsheet, maybe after Wed's games

Sorry! Update coming after tonight's!

[Ken Tram]

Post Hull (8th Feb) (Played 30)

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Reading
P:28 W:08 D:04 L:16 = 28-6 = 22 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts (Final Table - season-to-date form)

Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.38 Pts per remaining game)

Derby County run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:06 L:05 = 21
= P:46 W:14 D:18 L:14 = 60-21 = 39 Pts

Derby County run-in: required survival form
P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:07 L:04 = 22
= P:46 W:14 D:19 L:13 = 61-21 = 40 Pts

Survival form is equivalent to:
41.4 Pts from 30 games
Equivalent to: Preston (13th)

[Ken Tram]

Cardiff City run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:28 W:08 D:05 L:15 = 29 Pts
+ P:18 W:05 D:03 L:10 = 18
= P:46 W:13 D:08 L:25 = 47 Pts

Reading run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:28 W:08 D:04 L:16 = 28-6 = 22 Pts
+ P:18 W:05 D:03 L:10 = 18
= P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts

Derby County run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:06 L:05 = 21
= P:46 W:14 D:18 L:14 = 60-21 = 39 Pts

Peterborough run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:27 W:05 D:05 L:17 = 20 Pts
+ P:19 W:04 D:04 L:11 = 16
= P:46 W:09 D:09 L:28 = 36 Pts

Barnsley run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:29 W:02 D:08 L:19 = 14 Pts
+ P:17 W:01 D:05 L:11 = 08
= P:46 W:03 D:13 L:30 = 22 Pts

[Ken Tram]

Form required, is also equivalent to Blackpool (14th). Considering that we used to have to match Bournemouth and Fulham to stay up, it is amazing that we may only need to match the form of Blackpool to survive.

We are still one point behind Reading's predicted final points tally (predictions based on season-to-date form). However, our current form is better than our season-to-date form, so we have a lot to be hopeful about!

[Ken Tram]

WE COULD FINALLY ACHIEVE SURVIVAL FORM on WEDNESDAY EVENING:

If Reading lose to Bristol on Wednesday night, then their predicted end-of-season points tally (based on season-to-date form) will drop from 40 to 39 points, which equals Derby's.

This means that as of tomorrow night, for the first time, Derby's season-to-date form could be survival form, with us overtaking Reading (on goal difference)!

[Ram1988]

22 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

WE COULD FINALLY ACHIEVE SURVIVAL FORM on WEDNESDAY EVENING:

If Reading lose to Bristol on Wednesday night, then their predicted end-of-season points tally (based on season-to-date form) will drop from 40 to 39 points, which equals Derby's.

This means that as of tomorrow night, for the first time, Derby's season-to-date form could be survival form, with us overtaking Reading (on goal difference)!

Come on Bristol!

[Premier ram]

11 hours ago, Ram1988 said:

Come on Bristol!

Come on Chrissy and Andi , once a Ram , always a Ram

[TigerTedd]

11 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

Post Hull (8th Feb) (Played 30)

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Reading
P:28 W:08 D:04 L:16 = 28-6 = 22 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts (Final Table - season-to-date form)

Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.38 Pts per remaining game)

Derby County run-in: based on season-to-date form
P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:06 L:05 = 21
= P:46 W:14 D:18 L:14 = 60-21 = 39 Pts

Derby County run-in: required survival form
P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:07 L:04 = 22
= P:46 W:14 D:19 L:13 = 61-21 = 40 Pts

Survival form is equivalent to:
41.4 Pts from 30 games
Equivalent to: Preston (13th)

It is a bit concerning to think that we can only really afford to lose 4 games though. Nice to know one loss doesn’t mean doom and gloom, but if we lose a couple back to back at any point, it’s all going to get very worrying and not leave much room for error in the run in. 

it’s be nice if we could just smash out 6 wins in a row in the next 6 games, and leave all our troubles behind. 

[Woodley Ram]

14 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

It is a bit concerning to think that we can only really afford to lose 4 games though. Nice to know one loss doesn’t mean doom and gloom, but if we lose a couple back to back at any point, it’s all going to get very worrying and not leave much room for error in the run in. 

it’s be nice if we could just smash out 6 wins in a row in the next 6 games, and leave all our troubles behind. 

its as Rooney has said going be down to the wire. I think we will get close to Reading. Re Reading their form will change possibly when they change their manager. I expect them to improve. I think we will be above Peterborough and Barnsley but lets see re Reading. lots to play for. Their next 2 games are important, if they lose then pressure will build. However like I say they will change their manager and teams always pick up or a least a couple of games.

[Ken Tram]

28 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

It is a bit concerning to think that we can only really afford to lose 4 games though. Nice to know one loss doesn’t mean doom and gloom, but if we lose a couple back to back at any point, it’s all going to get very worrying and not leave much room for error in the run in. 

it’s be nice if we could just smash out 6 wins in a row in the next 6 games, and leave all our troubles behind. 

If we could get 6 wins out of 16, then we could lose 7, and still get the same number of points.

[BriggRam]

1 hour ago, Woodley Ram said:

its as Rooney has said going be down to the wire. I think we will get close to Reading. Re Reading their form will change possibly when they change their manager. I expect them to improve. I think we will be above Peterborough and Barnsley but lets see re Reading. lots to play for. Their next 2 games are important, if they lose then pressure will build. However like I say they will change their manager and teams always pick up or a least a couple of games.

Hopefully there new manager has the same impartial as Barnsleys 

[Quagga]

14 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

Sorry! Update coming after tonight's!

No need to apologise ?
It's just when we win, I want an update.... less so when we lose

[BriggRam]

1 hour ago, BriggRam said:

Hopefully there new manager has the same impartial as Barnsleys 

Impact ?

[r_wilcockson]

3 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

If we could get 6 wins out of 16, then we could lose 7, and still get the same number of points.

This team CAN win 6 out of 16 games, no question. If we can pick up a couple of draws as well we should be there or thereabouts. I must admit, I'm not ready for missing out on survival by 1 point as per the current prediction!