Coronavirus

[Wolfie]

8 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

One question that came to my mind that i haven't seen an answer for is "where did the 30,000 people who were in hospital go, in order to free up the beds"?

undoubtedly some were into care homes, but presumably not all? So is the NHS chronically mismanaging discharging patients, or are there other timebombs ticking elsewhere in society?

Couldn't it just be the capacity that grew shortly after they'd postponed and turned off the tap of all routine work?. i.e. Go and have an Op, followed by a few days in hospital type thing - Joint replacement etc? Just a guess.

[FindernRam]

49 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

From a purely selfish point of view, in the last few weeks I have become aware of a rapidly growing and changing mole but I have no idea when I will be able to see a GP, never mind the huge backlog in the system for any further treatment, should it be required

I had a video consultation today on a worrying rash. It was dead easy on a smartphone!

Phone call from Doc, then a text with a link which opened up like Zoom HouseParty etc. Bit tricky getting the camera to show my issue but worked in the end. A mole should be easier to show.

[Guest]

So the ONS death stats up to 17/04/2020 have been released today.

Deaths for 2020 are 22k up on the 5 year average.

Death certificates where Covid 19 was mentioned were 19k.

So it would look likely that there have been an indirect additional 3k deaths.

These figures only run up to 11 days ago.

Think it's pretty safe to say that the figures we are seeing reported by the Goverment are wildly out.

I would guess the death toll is up near 30,000 now.

[GboroRam]

40 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So the ONS death stats up to 17/04/2020 have been released today.

Deaths for 2020 are 22k up on the 5 year average.

Death certificates where Covid 19 was mentioned were 19k.

So it would look likely that there have been an indirect additional 3k deaths.

These figures only run up to 11 days ago.

Think it's pretty safe to say that the figures we are seeing reported by the Goverment are wildly out.

I would guess the death toll is up near 30,000 now.

Is 3,000 within the sort of normal tolerances you see year on year though?

[Uptherams]

Re-posting this as some punk kids at YouTube decided to remove the original which had over 5 million views because it doesn't fit their world view. 

 

[GboroRam]

23 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Re-posting this as some punk kids at YouTube decided to remove the original which had over 5 million views because it doesn't fit their world view. 

 

Was going to give it a listen, then I realised it's over an hour long. 

[Boycie]

8 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Was going to give it a listen, then I realised it's over an hour long. 

What we’re the main points I wonder?

[Uptherams]

12 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Was going to give it a listen, then I realised it's over an hour long. 

Please just watch the first 5 minutes. More than enough information. 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

So the ONS death stats up to 17/04/2020 have been released today.

Deaths for 2020 are 22k up on the 5 year average.

Death certificates where Covid 19 was mentioned were 19k.

So it would look likely that there have been an indirect additional 3k deaths.

These figures only run up to 11 days ago.

Think it's pretty safe to say that the figures we are seeing reported by the Goverment are wildly out.

I would guess the death toll is up near 30,000 now.

I’m being a bit dim here so, be patient with me.

If deaths are up 22k but you reckon the true figure for Coronavirus is near 30k, are you suggesting that without the virus the death rate would be 8k below the five year average? You’d surely expect the virus to account for, give or take what might be considered a reasonable variance, the extra deaths i.e. 22k. 
 

How did you arrive at your guess of 30k? I’m sure it’s only me not following your logic.

[Uptherams]

31 minutes ago, Boycie said:

What we’re the main points I wonder?

Watch some of it. Instead of just being spoonfed information from 'journalists' like Piers Morgan ??

[Coneheadjohn]

4 hours ago, Archied said:

on the up side Craig David is putting out music free ( fantastically selfless these people) so all is good 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Is 3,000 within the sort of normal tolerances you see year on year though?

I have found this on a site called Statista.

If my interpretation and maths are correct, it seems to be saying:

1. Average deaths per annum over last 5 years is 598,000
2. Highest is 616,000
3. Lowest is 570,000

The period we are talking about here is the first 15 weeks of the year so, not accounting for seasonal variation, the number of deaths over 15 weeks are:

1. Average 172,000 (598k divided by 52 times by 15)
2. Highest is 177,000 (5,000 higher than the average)
3. Lowest is 164,000 (8,000 below the average)

So, perhaps 3,000 may well be within the normal tolerance.

 

 

 

[Eddie]

16 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Watch some of it. Instead of just being spoonfed information from 'journalists' like Piers Morgan ??

Got a summary for the deaf? Auto-generated closed captions are exhausting at the best of times.

[Uptherams]

Just now, Eddie said:

Got a summary for the deaf? Auto-generated closed captions are exhausting at the best of times.

Press the 3 dots, bottom right, to turn on captions ?

[Eddie]

55 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Press the 3 dots, bottom right, to turn on captions ?

Like I said, auto-generated closed captions (not "I don't know how to turn on the captions"). I stuck it for 10 minutes before my brain fried trying to make sense of the lack of punctuation, strange almost-interpreted-correctly words and the like. Thanks anyway - from what I gather, they were suggesting that the problems caused by self-isolation and forced lockdowns were worse overall than the problems caused by some people dying. They seemed to be pushing "It's no worse than the flu" quite hard - but that just doesn't seem to stack up in comparison to the death toll we are seeing in the UK (second week in succession where the weekly death toll from all causes is the highest on record).

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

Given that Boris is planning to get a plan together... to get a flavour of what we could expect here is what the lockdown exit plan from the French government have published this afternoon.

- From May 11th, 700,000 tests will have to be done each week.

- People tested positive will have to isolate themselves, either at home, which will entail the confinement of the whole household for 14 days, or in in requisitioned hotels.

- From May 7th, there will be two categories of department/counties: the green, where the limits will be less strict, and the red, where restrictions will carry on.

- In cities, public transport can resume on May 11th, but must respect social distances by limiting crowds. Wearing a mask will be mandatory.

- Primary and nursery schools can reopen from May 11th, on a voluntary basis, colleges from May 18. A decision on the reopening of the college/sixth form will be taken at the end of May. The creches will reopen on May 11, but with small groups of ten children.

- Travel beyond 100 km will not be authorised on May 11th, except "compelling professional or family reasons". Apart from these cases, it will again be possible to travel without a certificate (they already need this to get out of the house)

- Parks and gardens can only open in green departments. Collective and indoor sports will be prohibited (French PL and Championship canceled, don't tell B4). The beaches will remain inaccessible to the public until at least June 1.

- Media libraries, libraries, small museums may reopen on May 11th, not large museums, cinemas (tell B4), theaters and concert halls, function halls, multipurpose halls. Shops will reopen, with the exception of large shopping centers, unless they they get special authorisations).

- No large gathering (requiring authorisation from the prefecture/county council) can be held before September.

- There will be no religious ceremony before June 2. cemeteries will reopen and funeral ceremonies may be held there up to a limit of 20 people.

- Meetings organised on public roads or in private places will be limited to ten people.

- The possible reopening of bars and restaurants will be decided at the end of May.

- The state of health emergency will be extended beyond May 23rd, possibly until July 23rd. A vote will take place in Parliament next week.

 

 

[Boycie]

3 hours ago, Uptherams said:

Watch some of it. Instead of just being spoonfed information from 'journalists' like Piers Morgan ??

So this guys not spoon feeding us then?

Leave Piers alone! He’s told me all about your answer phone messages.

[Uptherams]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

Like I said, auto-generated closed captions (not "I don't know how to turn on the captions"). I stuck it for 10 minutes before my brain fried trying to make sense of the lack of punctuation, strange almost-interpreted-correctly words and the like. Thanks anyway - from what I gather, they were suggesting that the problems caused by self-isolation and forced lockdowns were worse overall than the problems caused by some people dying. They seemed to be pushing "It's no worse than the flu" quite hard - but that just doesn't seem to stack up in comparison to the death toll we are seeing in the UK (second week in succession where the weekly death toll from all causes is the highest on record).

They are using statistics throughout, for multiple states in the US, the US as a whole and multiple other nations. They offer statistics with regards to seasonal Flu in the US. They offer up their own statistics in house too. 

Off the top of my head, the data up until then was showing 60 million plus people in the US having had Covid-19, 21% in Spain, etc. The State of New York was around 35%. 

They offered their medical analyses and also their practical experience. They present their experience of the flu and this virus. Cite seasonal flu statistics. 

They go on to talk of how they have been pressured by their administration and their peers in other hospitals have too, to artificially inflate the numbers. That if this was the Flu, it would be recorded differently. Most importantly, the implication of do not resuscitate. 

They specifically refer to the models being bad and outdated. The ones predicting millions of deaths in the US alone. 

This is probably one of the most insightful pieces of unbiased information about Covid-19. They cover so many areas, all while taking, what are to be quite frank, given the tone and constant interruptions, questions from stupid journalists. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I’m being a bit dim here so, be patient with me.

If deaths are up 22k but you reckon the true figure for Coronavirus is near 30k, are you suggesting that without the virus the death rate would be 8k below the five year average? You’d surely expect the virus to account for, give or take what might be considered a reasonable variance, the extra deaths i.e. 22k. 
 

How did you arrive at your guess of 30k? I’m sure it’s only me not following your logic.

Sorry if I wasnt clear, the 22k only runs up to 17/04/2020. I'm estimating around another 8k deaths in the 11 days since.

[Guest]

BBC with a PPE question. Excellent. So glad I paid my licence fee this year.

For weeks we have been led to believe that our results were tracking Spain/Italy/France, looks to me like that is because the figures have been suppressed.

That is unless the other countries death figures have been suppressed too.