McRainy Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 7 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: As I've said, it's by far the best time to be alive in all of human history. You're making that statement from within a very narrow frame of reference; it's absurd to claim that it applies to everyone on the planet. Ask the people of Yemen, Syria or Gaza if it's the best time to be alive. As David said, it's a totally relativist viewpoint. You also ignore my point about the accelerating destruction of vast numbers of species and the impending doom of the planet itself, which, by your own reasoning, is a key driver for the development of space travel. As I said, and as most climatologists agree, present levels of consumption are not sustainable. If you genuinely think this is the best time to be alive for you, make the most of it, because your children won't have the same opportunity. Oh, but it's ok, we can fire them off into space... crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, Lambchop said: You're making that statement from within a very narrow frame of reference; it's absurd to claim that it applies to everyone on the planet. Ask the people of Yemen, Syria or Gaza if it's the best time to be alive. As David said, it's a totally relativist viewpoint. Probably more accurate to say that if you're a foetus about to imminently pop out of a ladychuff anywhere on earth, then the odds of you leading a healthy long life are higher than at any other point in human history Those odds have been getting steadily better as a trend, but I think you're right that we can't assume that will continue, as the planet is a finite size with finite resources. The one thing I pin my hopes on its that humans are incredibly good problem solvers so I steer away from doom-mongering. One of the potential solutions is to colonise off-world. One of - not the only solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 All I know is that the world is going to be in a mess in the decades/centuries to come and one of the following needs to happen: 1. Everyone in the world needs to pull together in peace for the benefit of the planet and mankind. Everyone in the developed world will have to vote to be materially poorer and all governments take huge co-ordinated steps to avoid climate armageddon. 2. Earth's population needs to be reduced and held steady (4-5bn maybe?) so that we can live within our planetary means while maintaining current "wealth" 3. Accept that neither of the above are likely to happen and look to setting up home somewhere else for a few of us and hope we can do so before we wipe each other out or the planet cooks. Following 3 is the smart option isn't it?. Planning for the worst, whilst hoping for the best and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRainy Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 1 hour ago, StivePesley said: Probably more accurate to say that if you're a foetus about to imminently pop out of a ladychuff anywhere on earth, then the odds of you leading a healthy long life are higher than at any other point in human history We've made advances in some areas; nutrition, hygiene, medicine, communication, and got worse in others; the environment, war, inequality, social cohesion, living a generally meaningless existence. The global political situation is probably the most volatile and dangerous it has ever been, with the very real potential for the destruction of all life; which rather outweighs all the other benefits, if it happens... but we can't talk about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, Lambchop said: living a generally meaningless existence life is ultimately meaningless and always has been though - I don;t think that's got any better or worse. At least it's mercifully short ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BathRam72 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, StivePesley said: life is ultimately meaningless and always has been though - I don;t think that's got any better or worse. At least it's mercifully short ? Oh wow. I came on here to cheer me up from my boring work task. All of a sudden it looks a good option, back to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRainy Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, StivePesley said: life is ultimately meaningless and always has been though - I don;t think that's got any better or worse. At least it's mercifully short ? It depends on your perspective and criteria. People will argue for technological advancement and increased material wealth for some as a justification for the damage we're doing; I just see a civilisation which has become extremely decadent and is reaching its endgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Coming out of the end of reading Sapiens and Homo Deus (books I would put as absolute mandatory reading to anyone who has interest in this thread) I would make a couple of points. 1: I'd challenge the statement that this is the best time to live, ever. The ultimate measure is happiness and there is little to suggest that for all of our advances we are actually happier today than previous generations. If we remember our own childhoods we (I hope, for you) have happy memories. Yet give or take, we lived in a time with very few of the accoutrements that we consider essential today. 2: The suggestion that life expectancy has been constantly rising in human evolution is not correct. It slumped considerably from the time of our living in communities and has been rising ever since. But if you were a hairy hunter gatherer, tranversing the plains in search for anything from buffalo to blueberries to eat, then as long as you got through childhood there is a fair chance you could expect to live a pretty long, disease free, existence. Finally, I don't align life expetancy with progress - as was mentioned earlier in the thread the likelihood is that we will be moving towards uploading ourselves into immortal existence in computer servers within a few generations. Sorry, but I'm not sure that appeals (though I do concur with the point Woody Allen made that old age might suck but it beats the alternative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highgate Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 May 1972 must have been a pretty good time to be alive. And Forest were relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTedd Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 5 hours ago, David said: Sounds like a Apple Keynote, this is the most powerful phone we have ever created and can’t wait to share it with you all today Well I should hope so, I’m not sat here with my wallet looking to buy a phone less powerful than the one I bought 12 months ago! The current day will always be by far the best time to be alive. Same as it was back when TV’s were invented and the lightbulb. Yeah, the statement implies that a peak is one day inevitable, and there will eventually be a generation that is worse off than its predecessor. Like apple saying ‘we’ve done all we can, so the next model phone will actually bit a bit crapper’. The scary thing is, a peak is definitely inevitable, so have we reached that peak now, or have we still got room to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, BaaLocks said: If we remember our own childhoods we (I hope, for you) have happy memories. Yet give or take, we lived in a time with very few of the accoutrements that we consider essential today. Fond memories, yes but we have an in-built knack of only remembering the best times. For the most part, growing up as a kid of the 70s/80s it was incredibly boring. I'm insanely jealous of kids today who have the whole world of knowledge at their fingertips (should they choose to use it - and plenty will). So many things I wanted to learn about I just had no opportunity to do so. I didn't know where to start. Now, not only can you look it up instantly, you can also find hordes of like-minded people willing to help you. For the most part the things we now consider essential were non-existent back then rather than unessential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, TigerTedd said: The scary thing is, a peak is definitely inevitable, so have we reached that peak now, or have we still got room to grow. No no, don’t think any of us will be around to see the peak when it happens, which it probably will unless we figure things out and take over multiple planets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/09/20/mars_radiation_levels/ This might be a problem too, hard to colonise a planet when everyone has got cancerous gonads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Love this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 6 hours ago, Lambchop said: You're making that statement from within a very narrow frame of reference; it's absurd to claim that it applies to everyone on the planet. Ask the people of Yemen, Syria or Gaza if it's the best time to be alive. As David said, it's a totally relativist viewpoint. You also ignore my point about the accelerating destruction of vast numbers of species and the impending doom of the planet itself, which, by your own reasoning, is a key driver for the development of space travel. As I said, and as most climatologists agree, present levels of consumption are not sustainable. If you genuinely think this is the best time to be alive for you, make the most of it, because your children won't have the same opportunity. Oh, but it's ok, we can fire them off into space... crazy! From a "veil of ignorance" point of view, your best chances come through being born today. Surely you see that? Yes there are bad places in the world, but they're becoming ever fewer. You talk about an accelerated rate of extinction. I think that's partly a selection effect, in that it's only now we have the ability to observe and measure such things and so can see what's happening. But there probably is a real effect too. As a species we've taken a gamble that, as I've shown, has proved immensely beneficial. As you're trying to show (I think), that gamble is unsustainable. And I agree that's the case if we remain Earthbound. In those circumstances civilization will collapse and there will be insufficient resources to provide ever greater wealth for everyone. And because of our use of fossil fuels and the like, the game's then up. But the gamble came with good odds in terms of the potential benefits to humanity in becoming a spacefaring species. We simply have to stay true to the course and lock in the glorious future by making it happen as soon as we can, before anything snatches it away. Then we can turn Earth into a beautiful environment with all the heavy industry off-world if that's what future humans choose. We're going round in circles but, even if you choose not to see it, I hope others will realize the case for space stacks up. And should be a global priority. As should be ending extreme poverty, but because it's about the entire future of our species, space is the even more important priority. By your reasoning we can do without space and I agree that will also end extreme poverty, but only because there are no humans left - we'll have gone extinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 8 hours ago, David said: Sounds like a Apple Keynote, this is the most powerful phone we have ever created and can’t wait to share it with you all today Well I should hope so, I’m not sat here with my wallet looking to buy a phone less powerful than the one I bought 12 months ago! The current day will always be by far the best time to be alive. Same as it was back when TV’s were invented and the lightbulb. You're right, but you cannot assume a continual upward trend for civilization for ever. Without taking a step further out and becoming spacefaring, the day will come when people have forgotten how to make iPhones - just a distant dream in a long forgotten era when technology seemed near Indistinguishable from magic. For instance, look at the simply astonishing Anikythera Mechanism, a clockwork Greek astronomical computer shipwrecked around 90 BC, but that modern Europeans would have been incapable of reproducing until maybe 1500 AD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 2 hours ago, StivePesley said: Fond memories, yes but we have an in-built knack of only remembering the best times. For the most part, growing up as a kid of the 70s/80s it was incredibly boring. I'm insanely jealous of kids today who have the whole world of knowledge at their fingertips (should they choose to use it - and plenty will). So many things I wanted to learn about I just had no opportunity to do so. I didn't know where to start. Now, not only can you look it up instantly, you can also find hordes of like-minded people willing to help you. For the most part the things we now consider essential were non-existent back then rather than unessential What I was saying is that you didn't sit there as a kid thinking 'if only I had a hand held, touch screen device with which I could line up pieces of candy in order to progress to the next level'. Nope, you might have been bored but instead you went over to Seven Fields and got chased by Polo (Littleover reference, sorry) or played in the bombhole in Ossie Park. What you are saying is that you now know of ways in which your childhood could have been enhanced, if only those things had been available then. But they didn't and therefore you didn't miss them, in the same way that the medieval bloke didn't miss his flat screen telly or you don't miss the 3D interactive travel pod that will be invented in 2028 and make holidays a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said: You're right, but you cannot assume a continual upward trend for civilization for ever. Without taking a step further out and becoming spacefaring, the day will come when people have forgotten how to make iPhones - just a distant dream in a long forgotten era when technology seemed near Indistinguishable from magic. For instance, look at the simply astonishing Anikythera Mechanism, a clockwork Greek astronomical computer shipwrecked around 90 BC, but that modern Europeans would have been incapable of reproducing until maybe 1500 AD. Or neolithic hand axes - another example of why we shouldn't assume that we become inherently cleverer from one generation to the next Or football rosettes, the last woman capable of making a schoolboys international rosette apparently died in 2013. Honest injun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 1 hour ago, StivePesley said: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/09/20/mars_radiation_levels/ This might be a problem too, hard to colonise a planet when everyone has got cancerous gonads That's why Mars is like Ukraine, Chernobyl fall off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRainy Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said: you cannot assume a continual upward trend for civilization for ever You're talking about this in terms of ever increasing material wealth. As has been pointed out, this is neither possible nor even desirable. Our present, excessive, levels of consumption are not making people any happier. I simply do not accept your criteria for what represents a good quality of life, or a worthwhile existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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