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22 minutes ago, bigbadbob said:

Does anyone know what Paul Clements win percentage is?

In another thread somewhere, something like 55% in the league. one of the Paul Clement ones.

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Tell you what folks, 2nd place on goal difference in the 90th minute on the last day will do me, anything to avoid the playoffs!

All we have to do is be marginally better than the teams around us and it's definitely doable.

For example, if over the next 10 games if we get 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat that's 25 points.  If Brighton (currently top) get just one win less than that and one draw more they would have 23 points from 10 games and we'd be above them, same with Boro.

It's very tight this year, I reckon the top 2 in May will come from the current top 5.

What may well decide things is not so much how the top 5 perform against each other but how they do against the bottom half sides.  Last season we were somewhat mercurial - beating top sides and then struggling against the likes of Millwall and Huddersfield, and that in the end was our undoing.  For example, had we beaten Millwall away instead of a 3-3 draw we'd have been in the top 6 in May even after losing to Reading.

I don't care if we're top after the next 10 games but 2nd or a close 3rd is a realistic aim, and I think we'll do it.  We're now harder to beat and have plenty of firepower up top, plus we have the Thorne factor.  Hull were the form team and we've just beaten them away.  Happy days!

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9 hours ago, ck- said:

Genuine question: do you think we had lots of luck?  I thought in terms of clear cut chances we had as many. Thorne shot going in until Weiman deflected to their keeper and Ince chance late on. 

Plus I recall a Martin header that went straight at their keeper and of course Christie cutting them wide open before stumbling at the vital moment. 

On real clear cut chances I'd say we had as many as them plus the ones we actually scored so you'd have to say it's not really lucky to have won. 

But I do get your point that we could have been unlucky and conceded a couple. 

I suppose what I'm blathering on about is that we'd have been unlucky to concede more than we scored, rather than being lucky to score more than we conceded. 

Genuine question: do you think we had lots of luck?

For part of the Ist half we got at them and totally dominated and took our 2 out of 4 chances and did so deservedly . They changed their formation and in the last 10 mins of the1st half come back into the game, they got at us and we went deeper.

The 2nd half they totally dominated possession and had loads of chances, but not really not much on target, they had bad luck in front of goal especially Maloney, they did 'miss some sitters' and we got good luck as it wasn't really only down to great defending that it remained 2-0 although Carson did also pull off one or two fantastic saves as well - we had the luck on our side,   teams going to win titles or promotion do get that sort off luck .

So if we are getting that sort of luck, why can't it stop with us at Wednesday and against Brighton?

 

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10 minutes ago, super rams said:

Genuine question: do you think we had lots of luck?

For part of the Ist half we got at them and totally dominated and took our 2 out of 4 chances and did so deservedly . They changed their formation and in the last 10 mins of the1st half come back into the game, they got at us and we went deeper.

The 2nd half they totally dominated possession and had loads of chances, but not really not much on target, they had bad luck in front of goal especially Maloney, they did 'miss some sitters' and we got good luck as it wasn't really only down to great defending that it remained 2-0 although Carson did also pull off one or two fantastic saves as well - we had the luck on our side,   teams going to win titles or promotion do get that sort off luck .

So if we are getting that sort of luck, why can't it stop with us at Wednesday and against Brighton?

 

"The more I practice the luckier I get". Excellent quote from one of the greatest golfers of all time. Maybe it applies in football too?

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If your goalkeeper makes a save, it isn't luck, it's good goalkeeping.

If you give the opposition a chance to put the ball into an unguarded net from 5-10 yards and they miss the target, then yes, you can consider yourselves lucky. That wasn't the case against Hull - even if Maloney's shot had been on target, Carson had it covered, his dive took him beyond his post.

The expression "You make your own luck" is a sanctimonious load of nonsense. People confuse luck with chance. You can create your own opportunities, put yourself in the best position to get positive results etc, but you cannot create your own luck. Luck exists as a force outside of control. A lot of people do, however, automatically blame 'bad luck' for their own failings.

If you were to apply the "you create your own luck" principle to events outside of sport you'd have to be claiming that all the people killed in terrorists attacks weren't unlucky, they should just have created better luck for themselves(!) which would be both offensive and untrue.

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The Hull player on the Champo prog on Ch5 last night said at 2 up Derby did enough to choose to not keep attacking and to concede may well have provoked a further response from us. If you saw Burnley's 94th min equaliser then that was pure luck yet the pressure caused it. Agreed your own nervousness is magnified when when chances are spurned against you but it happens everywhere all the time. We are top 3 for a reason. We beat the top of the league away and deserved it. You take your good luck cos heaven knows we've had our bad. But are we top 3 on luck? I think not.

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3Nobody has said we are in the top 3 because of luck, simply we were lucky against Hull.

They dominated for 75 minutes had 62% of the possession, 23 chances but importantly only 2 on target and Carson was there to make two fantastic saves.

We were lucky on Friday night, it was just Hull couldn't hit the target with any of the other 21 chances they had. At the end of the game even Clement mentioned how may chances they had to score. No luck played a massive part in that win, we had it & they didn't.

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4 chances of note that Hull forged:

  • Excellent save from Carson to deny Hernandez
  • Huddlestone's long ranger
  • Maloney's effort wide
  • Tame Maguire header at the death

To restrict the league top scorers to 4 clear chances and otherwise desperate potshots, I thought was excellent. 2nd half we looked pressured, but not uncomfortable.

Do the same away to the Owls, and we'll be okay. Draw there would still be a decent result. I'd back us to beat anyone at home, Brighton will be no different. 

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3 minutes ago, Malagaram said:

Why are Middlesborough above us in the league,same number of games played,same goal difference,is it because they have won one more match than us,and what would happen if this situation arrived after the last match of the season.

Scored more I believe. That's how ranking works if 2 teams have same gd.

Reward for attacking play. I can't immediately fathom how boring boro have managed that even after taking a 3-0 tonking at Hull. 

They must have dealt out a beating to someone that I missed.

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Hull did not have 23 chances lol.

They dominated what? Chances

Christie run

Martin header

Weimann shot from 7 yards

1st goal

Ince on the counter

vs

Hernandez fluck

Maloney 8yrds

Maloney again. 

> A long range from Thorne and Huddlestone

------------

They dominated what? Possession?

We had 60% before going 1-0.

If Hull have the ball at 2-0 down and aren't creating anything then why do we need to force them to change the way they are playing.  

This is bordering on hypocritical because the accusations aimed at Derby early in the season was pointless possession when 0-0. 

I'm sure Clement would have loved Derby to defend with the ball vs Hull at 2-0.

But Hull aren't Cardiff. The likes of Diame and Maloney and Hernandez would thrive in space created by us pushing forward with passing moves. A risk worth taking at 0-0. At 2-0 the option  to pass along the back line was taken away by THEM pressing our back line and taking risks in leaving space behind them. 

The safest and easiest way to play against a team of good attacking players you don't want to be isolated with when 2-0 up is to be solid and counter. When you get chance to play then you play but they'll press high up and force a forward ball. 

Hull are a good team and at 2-0 up I don't really know what people expect. Had it been Huddersfield then the expectation would change

Look at the Huddersfield v Boro game. Look at the Huddersfield v Derby game. 

Big difference. 

Hull v Boro

Hull v Derby

Big difference.  

Boro v Derby was almost executed right too. They scored and it was pretty easy from there. But a draw was fair in the end imo

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1 hour ago, super rams said:

3Nobody has said we are in the top 3 because of luck, simply we were lucky against Hull.

They dominated for 75 minutes had 62% of the possession, 23 chances but importantly only 2 on target and Carson was there to make two fantastic saves.

We were lucky on Friday night, it was just Hull couldn't hit the target with any of the other 21 chances they had. At the end of the game even Clement mentioned how may chances they had to score. No luck played a massive part in that win, we had it & they didn't.

Codswallop.

We only needed to play our tip top best for 35 mins to get us 2-0, which with our chances could have been 4-0. It is not luck that the shots of theirs that did hit the target Carson saved. Unlucky would have been a beach ball deflecting the ball away from goal or a stray lightning bolt wiping out Maloney just as he shoots...

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9 minutes ago, BondJovi said:

Codswallop.

We only needed to play our tip top best for 35 mins to get us 2-0, which with our chances could have been 4-0. It is not luck that the shots of theirs that did hit the target Carson saved. Unlucky would have been a beach ball deflecting the ball away from goal or a stray lightning bolt wiping out Maloney just as he shoots...

Carson only had to make two saves that were on target - their other 21 attempts flew high or wide re watch the game on Sky - They missed lots of chances, as I said earlier even Clement said so after the game.....

Luck was on our side Friday night and not theirs.........

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