Ovis aries Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We were in fourth place.Trouble was Leicester had 12 points more at the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 But now we've got Darren Bent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rynny Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We were in fourth place. Trouble was Leicester had 12 points more at the top Win all our games we win the league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodleyRam Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ridiculously tight at the top. I keep thinking someone's going to put a run together or drop out completely and no one does. It's a very interesting Championship this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 [We have the same points as last season] We were in fourth place. Trouble was Leicester had 12 points more at the top Er, no we don't. Here's a good place you can check: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2013-2014/custom-table This year: P 27 W 15 D 6 L 6 GF 50 GA 25 Pts 51 Posn 2 Last year: P 27 W 14 D 6 L 7 GF 51 GA 35 Pts 48 Posn 4 The most striking difference (as well as having more points this season ) is that we've only conceded 71% of the goals we'd let in this time last year - a whole 10 fewer. Not bad considering how I felt when Wisdom was whisked away by the Scousers (reoccurring theme). Last year Leicester were top with 60 points, so 9 more than the leaders this time. QPR managed 55 points from their first 27 games and Burnley 52. It's interesting to see by how much QPR fell away in the run-in. It's also interesting to see that last season, one team was already out of sight and there was a very distinct top 4. This season no one is away, promotion is between 8 teams, there's 2 points between the top 5 (!!) and only 4 between the entire top 6. Just as well we do have more points than last season, or I'd be worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovis aries Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Er, no we don't. Here's a good place you can check: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2013-2014/custom-table This year: P 27 W 15 D 6 L 6 GF 50 GA 25 Pts 51 Posn 2 Last year: P 27 W 14 D 6 L 7 GF 51 GA 35 Pts 48 Posn 4 The most striking difference (as well as having more points this season ) is that we've only conceded 71% of the goals we'd let in this time last year - a whole 10 fewer. Not bad considering how I felt when Wisdom was whisked away by the Scousers (reoccurring theme). Last year Leicester were top with 60 points, so 9 more than the leaders this time. QPR managed 55 points from their first 27 games and Burnley 52. It's interesting to see by how much QPR fell away in the run-in. It's also interesting to see that last season, one team was already out of sight and there was a very distinct top 4. This season no one is away, promotion is between 8 teams, there's 2 points between the top 5 (!!) and only 4 between the entire top 6. Just as well we do have more points than last season, or I'd be worried! No I am right, look at 28/1/2014 , the comparative date, that's what I looked at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No I am right, look at 28/1/2014 , the comparative date, that's what I looked at . Time to stop digging... Even by the most tenuous measure of "dates" rather than "games played", you started the thread on 27 January so we had 3 points more this season than last by that reckoning too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It should all change this weekend, as 4 of the top 6 are playing each other (and we're not one of them) Vital that we pick up points at Cardif.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashz09 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hate to say it but we have more safer fixtures over the coming months. We need to get points most of the time now which we are doing. The only problem we have is slipping on banana skins on the teams who are on a bad run or owe us one. Hopefully we can get the better of these games or we may struggle for top two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollycutts1982 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think in all honestly we are in good shape. Bent looks a class above, even considering the lack I games will only get better, keeping clean sheets, Thorne nearing a return, Raul can't get in the team due to the form of Bucko n Keogh. Beat Cardiff, Bolton n Wednesday and avoid defeat at Bournemouth and I think we will be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLACML Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think in all honestly we are in good shape. Bent looks a class above, even considering the lack I games will only get better, keeping clean sheets, Thorne nearing a return, Raul can't get in the team due to the form of Bucko n Keogh. Beat Cardiff, Bolton n Wednesday and avoid defeat at Bournemouth and I think we will be sitting pretty. He's been here for one league game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollycutts1982 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 He's been here for one league game. Appreciated. But if they keep playing as they have been he will have a job on to get in the team. Hopefully it will push them both on now they have someone pushing them. Clean sheets win games and we seem to be able to keep them at the minute. I'm not counting the F****t game as t I have erased that event from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevor Hebberd Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Derby are actually 5 points and 12 goals better off on like-for-like comparisons. Projected points finish of 90 points based on last season's results. I have a graph / image which I don't think I can upload but highlights there are two key groups of games in order to maintain this projection. Game Group 1 A AFC Bournemouth A Rotherham Utd H Sheffield Wednesday H Charlton Athletic 12 points last season (read Rotherham as Yeovil) Game Group 2 H Middlesbrough A Wolverhampton Wanderers H Watford A Wigan Athletic H Brentford H Blackpool A Huddersfield Town A Millwall 22 points last season (read Wolves as Barnsley and Brentford as Doncaster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Oh to be 12 points clear now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Derby are actually 5 points and 12 goals better off on like-for-like comparisons. Projected points finish of 90 points based on last season's results. I have a graph / image which I don't think I can upload but highlights there are two key groups of games in order to maintain this projection. Game Group 1 A AFC Bournemouth A Rotherham Utd H Sheffield Wednesday H Charlton Athletic 12 points last season (read Rotherham as Yeovil) Game Group 2 H Middlesbrough A Wolverhampton Wanderers H Watford A Wigan Athletic H Brentford H Blackpool A Huddersfield Town A Millwall 22 points last season (read Wolves as Barnsley and Brentford as Doncaster) Don't think you can like for like compare it like that. Sides like M'boro and Bournemouth are doing much better, whereas Wigan and Millwall are performing a lot worse. Also the teams that have been promoted and replaced Barnsley and Doncaster as you list it are in no danger of going down and will be much harder than if we had Donny and Barnsley in place of Wolves and Brentford this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampage Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The one bad thing about all of this is that watching a winning team playing good football in the Championship is generally better than getting whipped in the Premiership on a regular basis because it is more entertaining. The journey can be better than the destination. I suppose that Burley would rather be where they are.. I had to watch last season's Play Off Final in a pub in Leicester. The contrast between me and some Leicester fans was interesting. They had suffered a similar fate to us the previous year so were sympathetic. They thought that we were better than QPR. I told them that they would get a lot of hammerings and that their strikers were not up to it and that their defenders were too old. A season later, they have the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevor Hebberd Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Don't think you can like for like compare it like that. Sides like M'boro and Bournemouth are doing much better, whereas Wigan and Millwall are performing a lot worse. Also the teams that have been promoted and replaced Barnsley and Doncaster as you list it are in no danger of going down and will be much harder than if we had Donny and Barnsley in place of Wolves and Brentford this season. I think it's a much fairer barometer for comparison than saying 'after x amount of games' or 'on this date last season'. For an easy example, consider Derby have been in the Premier League for 2 seasons. In Season 1 Derby stayed up with 40 points and after 9 games they had 8 points. Season 2 after 9 games 8 points. Those were based on the following fixtures: Season 1 A Chelsea - W H Man City - D A Southampton - L H Man Utd - L A Arsenal - L H Spurs - W A West Ham - L H Liverpool - D A Swansea - L Season 2 A Newcastle - W H Everton - D A C Palace - L H WBA - L A Aston V - L H Sunderland - W A Burnley - L H Hull - D A Leicester - L On the face of it, Derby are no worse off. Same points from the same number of games. However, how those points are derived is very different. Those 8 points achieved against 'more difficult' opponents could be seen as being unlikely for a second season and therefore for me it raises the importance of comparing like-for-like. An alternative I'd consider is the result against that team in the corresponding league position (i.e. for Bournemouth read Leicester). Look at Sunderland last season. I doubt many people expected them to get 7 points from Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd away in the run-in, and without them they would have been relegated. Where are they going to get those 7 points from this season? You're right though, team's qualities differ from season to season and therefore the in-season expectancy will potentially differ, but, the point stands, of the remaining games, Derby lost 4 and drew 3 last season to get to 85 points (current projection = 90pts). Derby took 6 points from Wigan and Millwall away, if they don't take 6 points this season then they will have to make those points up elsewhere to get to the points finish equivalent to last season. Derby are currently 5 points better off on like-for-like games on 51 points. 34 points needed from 19 games to match last season's total. 11 wins and 1 draw, 10 wins and 4 draws, 9 wins and 7 draws or 8 wins and 10 draws. There's some very tough game remaining... many of which Derby won the equivalent of last season (e.g. Middlesbrough, Watford and Brentford at home, and Bournemouth, Brighton and Wolves away). If Derby go and win at Fulham (read QPR), it 'almost' relates to providing the 'cushion' of being able to 'lose' points elsewhere, i.e. Millwall, yet still go on to achieve last season's total. Last night Derby 'gained' 2 points on last season. Of course, this is all based on the expectancy that 85 points will be enough for promotion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think anywhere around 90 will definitely see automatic promotion. The two leading sides have 51 after 27 games, which equates to about 1.8 points per game. There are 19 games left, which at the current rate both us and Bournemouth would finish on around 85 or 86 points. I can't see any two sides putting together a substantial run and I think ending on around 85 or 86 points will result in promotion. I'm quietly confident that with the additions we've made so far in January, hopefully adding at least one winger, and then with the return of Thorne, we can push on and get to around 90 points which this season in my opinion will be a title winning tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Derby are currently 5 points better off on like-for-like games on 51 points. 'Like-for-like" is different than "Team-for-team" To do the first you need to run it based on "Challengers", "Mid table" and "Relegation threatened" The second is based on each team you played last year plus swapping out relegated/promoted teams as an obvious swap... Basically you can't compare playoff sides Wigan and Brighton from last year to this year's relegation threatened sides... and equally Bournemouth and Ipswich are direct Challengers where last year they weren't... Bournemouth away this season will be a "6 pointer" which it wouldn't have been last season... Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff aren't even though QPR and Burnley were (their direct replacements in "team-for-team") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just to add to this... We realistically need 14/15 wins from our 19 remaining games We have the following to play: 4 direct challengers for automatic 2 nearish challengers for playoffs 8 mid-table (could make playoffs if put on decent run) 5 relegation end scrappers If we can beat everyone outside the top 6 we should do it... If we beat the 4 direct challengers we maybe buy ourselves more space for mistakes elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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