FKANorwichExile

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:
Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14
Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9
Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12
P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3
Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1
I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.
Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.
Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!
Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

I'm not here to challenge anyones opinions, they are what they are, let them be.
Personally I'm delighted with the job that Warne is doing, I think Dwight Gayles recent interview and the scenes at full time in front of a sell out crowd on Saturday show the togetherness of this team is a credit to the management team. 
His style may seem a little unorthodox to some and it won't suit every player, yet it's working with what was assembled whilst scraping barrels under EFL's restrictions makes it even more of an achievement.
When you look at the likes of Sunderland, Leeds, Forest who came down here, to think we can be in and out in 2 seasons is truly remarkable given the state of the club.
Important to point out, the season isn't done, we still have 7 huge games to play before we can start to think about the Championship, although no matter what happens between now and May, I have seen significant improvement to be fully behind Warne next season regardless of what division we are in.

I've been saying for a while that if I was a betting man, I'd have good money on us and Posh going up automatically and Lincoln to cause an upset in the playoffs. I wasn't expecting Lincoln to score 16 goals in 3 games, mind. Barnsley aren't clinical enough, Bolton have weaknesses at the back and injuries everywhere else and Portsmouth have an awful run in. It just feels like experience will be the key factor here, and whoever hits the playoffs in form gets the third spot.

One way to look at this would be the history of this league.
Last season third team got 96 points but before that, the numbers were 89, 80, 60 (in 35 games), 88, and 87. That means the third place has lately been reached 1.66-1.85 points per game.
So, if we leave out the freakish seasons (last and Covid ones), the 2-point-per-game average Warne has been touting all season, seems a valid goal to reach the automatic place. This season is most likely no different.
Can we reach 92? Well, we are averaging exactly 2 points per game at the moment, so we certainly can.
Worth noting that Peterborough has the easiest run-in of the top 5 and Pompey has the hardest in the league. 


I remember posting a similar expectations-based post earlier where I expected Peterboro to do better than they did at the time and Stevenage to drop as their xG was all wrong. I can't be arsed to search what the situation was at the time, but Stevenage certainly has dropped since.
The automatic promotion battle will probably go to the wire, but the second place is ours to lose.

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

My Fitbit gave me a warning about my heart rate hitting 130 during the last few minutes, which says it all! God it was an ugly match, but last season we lose that 2 or 3 nil and I'm absolutely buzzing that we managed to bulldoze our way over the line.
What a player Sheehan looked for them, though. If we do get over the line, I'd love us to pick him up.

Ha!  Wilson looking around... "s***!  What do I do now?" 🤣

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

My Fitbit gave me a warning about my heart rate hitting 130 during the last few minutes, which says it all! God it was an ugly match, but last season we lose that 2 or 3 nil and I'm absolutely buzzing that we managed to bulldoze our way over the line.
What a player Sheehan looked for them, though. If we do get over the line, I'd love us to pick him up.

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

Oh, and B4 would have been so proud of all the scarves and flanges today. Reckon he's had a word or two upstairs! How much do you reckon he'd want for Wilson after today?

My Fitbit gave me a warning about my heart rate hitting 130 during the last few minutes, which says it all! God it was an ugly match, but last season we lose that 2 or 3 nil and I'm absolutely buzzing that we managed to bulldoze our way over the line.
What a player Sheehan looked for them, though. If we do get over the line, I'd love us to pick him up.

Ginormous. Bigger than NML's, err, reputation.

Bring your scraves and flanges !

Thoroughly enjoyed last night. Adams is already proving to be one of the very best signings we have made in recent memory.
Cashin will be playing in the Premier League for the 2025-26 season. Hopefully with us.

Adams is the real deal, Gayle is pure class and the 3-4-3 formation finally seems to be making sense (especially to Sibs who looks like a new player). The ref was having a great game until he suddenly wasn't, but it's about time we got some decisions going our way.
Just 8 more cup finals to go, but we're hitting our stride at just the right time. I reckon we'll do it.

Adams is the real deal, Gayle is pure class and the 3-4-3 formation finally seems to be making sense (especially to Sibs who looks like a new player). The ref was having a great game until he suddenly wasn't, but it's about time we got some decisions going our way.
Just 8 more cup finals to go, but we're hitting our stride at just the right time. I reckon we'll do it.

Adams is the real deal, Gayle is pure class and the 3-4-3 formation finally seems to be making sense (especially to Sibs who looks like a new player). The ref was having a great game until he suddenly wasn't, but it's about time we got some decisions going our way.
Just 8 more cup finals to go, but we're hitting our stride at just the right time. I reckon we'll do it.

Long journey to fill and Mr CBR doesnt talk when driving 🙄
- Dwight just adds that touch of class and he works so hard around their defenders. Really noticed energy reduction up top when he came off
- Also listen to his post match interview on rad derby if you get chance. Extremely complimentary about everything at Derby and the environment PW has created. Seems to be just loving it and it shows
- Barks is like a player reborn - the change in him is immense. Always thought seemed not bothered. Loving him and Gayle together at the moment and takes pressure off Nat
- Robbie Savage singing away to steve bloomer's watching but then moaning away. Scruffy git also. Loved Savage junior's foul throw in front of him
- moment their goalie was signalling for VAR check on penalty was hilarious
- great atmosphere - wasnt expecting such feistiness tonight 

We seem to be playing so much quicker than previously, it’s really good to watch comparitvely. The attacking wing backs genuinely help going forwards, we have a lot more creative players on the pitch.
Adams been a great signing, Gayle too. Ward is like a new signing and barkhuizen been excellent last three games. 
Great time of the season to be hitting form! Roll on Saturday!

I do wonder about some on here. We were miles better than them and I lost count of how many cheaty little fouls they put in tonight that weren't carded. We were also the only side that looked like scoring all night. Does anyone really think they deserved a point tonight? I really don't get the mardiness from some quarters. 

Adams is the real deal, Gayle is pure class and the 3-4-3 formation finally seems to be making sense (especially to Sibs who looks like a new player). The ref was having a great game until he suddenly wasn't, but it's about time we got some decisions going our way.
Just 8 more cup finals to go, but we're hitting our stride at just the right time. I reckon we'll do it.