ariotofmyown Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Had a look back through the records and 70-75 points were needed for 6th place in the last 6 seasons. We've got 37 points so far and with 21 games remaining, 13 wins would give us 76 points and a 'guaranteed' playoff spot. Let's forget about draws as under Clough we only ever have good runs where we keep winning, or bad runs where we keep losing. We can nicely segment the rest of the season up into 4: Easier until mid-Feb: Coventry H Burnely A Barnsley A Forest H Millwall A Harder until mid-March: Reading H Southampton A Leicester H Brum A Blackpool H Easier until mid-April: Watford H Doncaster A Brighton A Palace H Bristol A Ipswich H Harder: Leeds A Boro H Cardiff A Portsmouth A Finishing with winable Peteboro H A nice bouns is that the only teams we've played twice are both in the top 6. These next set of games are vital to us keeping the season going. 3 of the bottom 4 plus 2 other teams below us too. 3-4 wins from these 5 games would set us up very nicely going into some harder games and we would have a good 2 solid months of form behind us. Only 1 win from 5 would see us drop down the table and need an extraordinary run for us to reach the playoffs. Tomorrow is crucial. The easiest looking game of the next 5 that would keep our momentum going. Come on you Rams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Intersting, very interesting. I personally think it all comes down to the depth of the squad. If we play to the top of our game with our first team we could finish 5th or 6th. Realistically injuries will show up our lack of depth. Cloughy may be able to pull something out of the bag with an emergency loan or two but not too convinced we will be strong enough. You can see clearly why the management say we are two or three good players short. FFP is being banded about as the main reason we are getting our wage bill down and the club in a break even at worst situation. I believe and hope that to be the case and that it's not just an excuse for minimal investment from the board. I am looking forward to Steve Nicholson's piece in the telegraph soon all about FFP and how it affects DCFC. He has done an interview with Tom Glick about the subject. Watch this space! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Play offs? wheres your ambition? B4 has us down for winning the league, I won't be happy with finishing anywhere below 1st this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donny Ram Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The way I see it: Coventry H (3 points) Burnely A (nil points) Barnsley A (1) Forest H (6 points)- double for 10 men again Millwall A (3 points) Harder until mid-March: Reading H (o points) Southampton A (0) Leicester H (1) Brum A (0) Blackpool H (1) Easier until mid-April: Watford H (3) Doncaster A (3) Brighton A (0) Palace H (3) Bristol A (0) Ipswich H (1) Harder: Leeds A (0) Boro H (1) Cardiff A (0) Portsmouth A (3) Finishing with winable Peteboro H (3) So that's 30 more points...hmmm just outside the play-offs then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You can beat anyone in this division, catch teams off form and you don't even have to do well to beat them but catch teams no matter where they're in the league who have a bit of belief about themselves then you have to be at your best. IF Barker and Shack are fit for the rest of the season, we won't lose many games... we just have to learn to put games to bed! Its certainly not impossible, I just hope we can avoid the dip in form again because that first 2 lines I wrote have been about us more often than not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 if we somehow stay unbeaten at home until the end of the season, that's the only way i can see us getting into the playoffs.. got a lot of hard away games (leeds, brum, southampton, cardiff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Intersting, very interesting. I personally think it all comes down to the depth of the squad. If we play to the top of our game with our first team we could finish 5th or 6th. Realistically injuries will show up our lack of depth. Cloughy may be able to pull something out of the bag with an emergency loan or two but not too convinced we will be strong enough. You can see clearly why the management say we are two or three good players short. FFP is being banded about as the main reason we are getting our wage bill down and the club in a break even at worst situation. I believe and hope that to be the case and that it's not just an excuse for minimal investment from the board. I am looking forward to Steve Nicholson's piece in the telegraph soon all about FFP and how it affects DCFC. He has done an interview with Tom Glick about the subject. Watch this space! Sounds like it will be a good read. Hopefully FFP will rejuvinate the Cups too. Extra revenue from cup matches could really make a difference again. For clubs millions and millions in debt, a couple of extra Cup matches make no difference. They are a hinderence for clubs who have gambled a fortune to try and reach the Premiership riches. Anyone have any idea how much revenue two 20k+ games vs Stoke could make us (assuming a replay). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Dream on lol the thread should be renamed how many points to stay up 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> Isnt it funny how a few good results fuel unrealistic expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diag Ram Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Had a look back through the records and 70-75 points were needed for 6th place in the last 6 seasons. We've got 37 points so far and with 21 games remaining, 13 wins would give us 76 points and a 'guaranteed' playoff spot. Let's forget about draws as under Clough we only ever have good runs where we keep winning, or bad runs where we keep losing. We can nicely segment the rest of the season up into 4: Easier until mid-Feb: Coventry H W Burnely A D Barnsley A W Forest H W Millwall A W Harder until mid-March: Reading H D Southampton A D Leicester H D Brum A L Blackpool H W Easier until mid-April: Watford H W Doncaster A W Brighton A W Palace H W Bristol A D Ipswich H W Harder: Leeds A L Boro H L Cardiff A L Portsmouth A D Finishing with winable Peteboro H W A nice bouns is that the only teams we've played twice are both in the top 6. These next set of games are vital to us keeping the season going. 3 of the bottom 4 plus 2 other teams below us too. 3-4 wins from these 5 games would set us up very nicely going into some harder games and we would have a good 2 solid months of form behind us. Only 1 win from 5 would see us drop down the table and need an extraordinary run for us to reach the playoffs. Tomorrow is crucial. The easiest looking game of the next 5 that would keep our momentum going. Come on you Rams. Highlighted my predictions up there, to be honest I think they're quite optimistic: Win 11 Draw 6 Loss 4 This would give us 39 points, which would give us 76 which I reckon would get us 5th. As I say, this is optimistic, relying on draws at Burnley and Southampton, and Leicester at home, which will be tough asks. Can you honestly see us performing consistently for the rest of the season? The first choice team is good, and can play good football, but is short of goals. We would need a 20 goal a season striker at least to produce the above results IMO, so I don't think we'll make it this season. We'll see. prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froggg Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Dream on lol the thread should be renamed how many points to stay up 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> Isnt it funny how a few good results fuel unrealistic expectations Nice wum........almost got enough to stay up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 You can beat anyone in this division, catch teams off form and you don't even have to do well to beat them but catch teams no matter where they're in the league who have a bit of belief about themselves then you have to be at your best. True, but it doesn't work like that for us. We have stretches when we can't buy a point, then periods when we keep winning. We need to keep this run going. If it stops before these next 5 games, that will be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 True, but it doesn't work like that for us. We have stretches when we can't buy a point, then periods when we keep winning. We need to keep this run going. If it stops before these next 5 games, that will be that. Exactly, Barker makes a massive difference... he has looked formidable since he returned and got fit! I think if he can stay fit, along with Shack we will not lose many games, we just have to make sure we see out the games. We shouldn't be worried about playing anyone, we could just as easily lose tomorrow then beat Southampton at their place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Nice wum........almost got enough to stay up... Not a WUM am being serious, our squad had nowhere near the quality or depth as teams like Cardiff, Reading, Leicester, Birmingham we have zero creativity in our midfield and don't have a striker who can make goals out of nothing, our defence is randomly porous and yet everyone on here is talking about getting into the playoffs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not a WUM am being serious, our squad had nowhere near the quality or depth as teams like Cardiff, Reading, Leicester, Birmingham we have zero creativity in our midfield and don't have a striker who can make goals out of nothing, our defence is randomly porous and yet everyone on here is talking about getting into the playoffs lol The point of my first post was if we want to stay in the playoff race then we need to do well in the next 5 games. I don't think anyone has come back with 'yes we will make the playoffs cos we are so good.' Most posters seem to think we'll miss out. The randomness of how porous our defence is seems to have a lot to do with how settled it is and who is fit ie not random at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not a WUM am being serious, our squad had nowhere near the quality or depth as teams like Cardiff, Reading, Leicester, Birmingham we have zero creativity in our midfield and don't have a striker who can make goals out of nothing, our defence is randomly porous and yet everyone on here is talking about getting into the playoffs lol Most people on here are actually saying that they don't realistically see us getting in the playoffs aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martyn Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Most people on here are actually saying that they don't realistically see us getting in the playoffs aren't they? He's a forest fan on a wind-up, ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Had a look back through the records and 70-75 points were needed for 6th place in the last 6 seasons. We've got 37 points so far and with 21 games remaining, 13 wins would give us 76 points and a 'guaranteed' playoff spot. Let's forget about draws as under Clough we only ever have good runs where we keep winning, or bad runs where we keep losing. We can nicely segment the rest of the season up into 4: Easier until mid-Feb: Coventry H Burnely A Barnsley A Forest H Millwall A Harder until mid-March: Reading H Southampton A Leicester H Brum A Blackpool H Easier until mid-April: Watford H Doncaster A Brighton A Palace H Bristol A Ipswich H Harder: Leeds A Boro H Cardiff A Portsmouth A Finishing with winable Peteboro H A nice bouns is that the only teams we've played twice are both in the top 6. These next set of games are vital to us keeping the season going. 3 of the bottom 4 plus 2 other teams below us too. 3-4 wins from these 5 games would set us up very nicely going into some harder games and we would have a good 2 solid months of form behind us. Only 1 win from 5 would see us drop down the table and need an extraordinary run for us to reach the playoffs. Tomorrow is crucial. The easiest looking game of the next 5 that would keep our momentum going. Come on you Rams. Your giving me an erection! Splendid post, absolutely spiffing effort 11/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Obviously it should have been a you're and not a your. Still got a semi though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trooper Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The way I see it: Coventry H (3 points) Burnely A (nil points) Barnsley A (nil) Forest H (1) Millwall A (0) Harder until mid-March: Reading H (o points) Southampton A (0) Leicester H (3) Brum A (0) Blackpool H (1) Easier until mid-April: Watford H (3) Doncaster A (3) Brighton A (0) Palace H (3) Bristol A (0) Ipswich H (3) Harder: Leeds A (0) Boro H (1) Cardiff A (0) Portsmouth A (0) Finishing with winable Peteboro H (3) Sorry on phone and to lazy to write my own!! So borrowed n put my points in!! I get 24 more points!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That's a no then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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