Paul Warne

[DavesaRam]

We used to sing “We’ve got the League One Gardiola”. If Paul keeps progressing like this, we might end up singing “We’ve got the Premiership Paul Warne”!!!

[brady1993]

On 08/10/2024 at 09:34, Bris Vegas said:

Depends how you look at it.

Would you prefer the harder teams at home and the easier ones (still challenging) away from home? 

Those home wins could turn to draws, and those away losses could also turn to draws, thus getting even less points.

It’s evident our form at PP will be vital to our survival chances as I can’t see us picking up many points on the road.

But likewise they might not. For the most part our wins against the 'easier' teams have been more comfortable for us than the opposition has had in beating us away from home. I think it's unreasonable to extrapolate out a big difference between home and away form for this season given that the more decisive element in the results is highly likely difference in squad quality. 

You kind of see it was a tricky start with some back of the napkin calculations.

We've played 5 at home, 4 away so we've played around an extra 6% than the expected value. 

The mean position of the teams we've faced is around 10.5, an elevation of of around 8% from the expected middle of the table at 12.5. And if you look at the median it's a bigger difference, with the median position of the teams we've faced being 8th around a 19% difference.

Now obviously it's a small sample size but I think it mostly bears out with you'd expect intuitively based on the teams we've face. Also these calculations are impact by that we will effect that relative position, however the impact of that is minimised by that we are essentially smack in the middle and that the teams we beat would likely move further up the table had they got the three points than the team we lost to would move down (if we'd won instead)

And that's all overlooking what I would say is overlooking a couple key elements. Yates and Zetterstrom were missing for 2 of those 4 away games and I don't think it can be overstated the difference in quality between them and replacement. Then Ozoh was missing for the other 2 in which we struggled to field a balanced looking midfield.*

Like if you believe that we won't pick up many points away from home that's fair enough but I don't think it's reasonable to cite this season as evidence of that. 

*I think this all here hints at the bigger worry that we've got a severe lack of depth in certain areas and that might be our undoing if we do have one.

[brady1993]

On 07/10/2024 at 21:31, nottingram said:

It’s a difficult one - by the nature of only having played 9 games one good or bad result is always going to have big effects on the league table. For instance we can say QPR at home was an easy fixture as they’re in the bottom 3, but if they won it they’d be above us. Likewise Watford away looks like it was tough as they’re top 6, if we’d won that we’d be above them.

One result one way or the other has such a big effect. It is not a huge surprise that we’re below teams we’ve lost to and above teams we’ve beaten, I don’t think. 

What I do think is we might well have played Cardiff (pre manager sacking) and QPR (injuries) at good times but on the flip side we look like we played Watford (hot start) and Blackburn (Szmodics) at bad times. 

Oh sure it's a rough heuristic and I don't think we've had a wildly difficult start but I would say it's been harder than average. The fortunate couple things here that make a quick look at the table more or less ok is that the teams we beat would have move further up the table had they won than the teams we lost to would have moved down had we won. 

[samtheram83]

13 hours ago, brady1993 said:

But likewise they might not. For the most part our wins against the 'easier' teams have been more comfortable for us than the opposition has had in beating us away from home. I think it's unreasonable to extrapolate out a big difference between home and away form for this season given that the more decisive element in the results is highly likely difference in squad quality. 

You kind of see it was a tricky start with some back of the napkin calculations.

We've played 5 at home, 4 away so we've played around an extra 6% than the expected value. 

The mean position of the teams we've faced is around 10.5, an elevation of of around 8% from the expected middle of the table at 12.5. And if you look at the median it's a bigger difference, with the median position of the teams we've faced being 8th around a 19% difference.

Now obviously it's a small sample size but I think it mostly bears out with you'd expect intuitively based on the teams we've face. Also these calculations are impact by that we will effect that relative position, however the impact of that is minimised by that we are essentially smack in the middle and that the teams we beat would likely move further up the table had they got the three points than the team we lost to would move down (if we'd won instead)

And that's all overlooking what I would say is overlooking a couple key elements. Yates and Zetterstrom were missing for 2 of those 4 away games and I don't think it can be overstated the difference in quality between them and replacement. Then Ozoh was missing for the other 2 in which we struggled to field a balanced looking midfield.*

Like if you believe that we won't pick up many points away from home that's fair enough but I don't think it's reasonable to cite this season as evidence of that. 

*I think this all here hints at the bigger worry that we've got a severe lack of depth in certain areas and that might be our undoing if we do have one.

That's a big napkin!

[Jimbo Ram]

On 09/10/2024 at 13:41, DavesaRam said:

We used to sing “We’ve got the League One Gardiola”. If Paul keeps progressing like this, we might end up singing “We’ve got the Premiership Paul Warne”!!!

One step at a time Dave……

[littleover ram]

I’d take him over Lee Carsley for sure!