2023/24 Player Ratings: Running Averages

[Srg]

3 minutes ago, sage said:

So the current best side (with an attempt at a formation) is...

                                                Wildsmith

Nyambe                Nelson                            Cashin                  Fozzy

                                                    Rooney

                       Bird                                                     Tommo

NML                                         Waghorn                             Barkhuizen         

Pretty much, although Rooney hasn't played defensive midfield under Warne (I don't believe? definitely not this season anyway, so would be odd to include him there in this team). Moot anyway as he's done for the year, I guess.

[May Contain Nuts]

I'm just amazed we've managed to amass a whole squad with the first name Rate!

Thanks for the stats and the effort behind them Ella.

Edited November 7, 2023 by May Contain Nuts

[Ellafella]

Player Ratings after 22 Games

Thanks once more for providing your player ratings after each game. Table 1 and Fig 1 give a summary of how things stand after the most recent game away versus Wigan. Curtis Nelson heads the pack with an average rating of 6.99, closely followed by Cashin on 6.78. The Top 5 comprises 4 defenders so we can see what this season has been based on hitherto. Wildsmith has done very well to gain an above-average rating of 6.32  (6.0 is "average") given that of late he has had very little to do so limited opportunity to score above a 6.0. I'm currently working on some charts to show relative movement across the season; for example Wilson has shown considerable improvement of late, as too Hourihane and Collins. The data generally shows few surprises - I think the data has good "face validity" in that this picture will fit in with most fans' "intuitive" view of whom our best performers are.  I'm a tad surprised that NML isn't higher but I often think that some players who set a high personal standard sometimes get marked down when they don't quite reproduce that. 

Going forward, I will try and keep a more up-to-date analysis, but please bear in mind that over the last couple of days, I have spent nearly 9 hours mostly punching the data - it's quite time-consuming. I've also still go to do some analysis that some posters have asked about specifically. That will come if it shows anything of note.   

 

[Comrade 86]

17 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Player Ratings after 22 Games

Thanks once more for providing your player ratings after each game. Table 1 and Fig 1 give a summary of how things stand after the most recent game away versus Wigan. Curtis Nelson heads the pack with an average rating of 6.99, closely followed by Cashin on 6.78. The Top 5 comprises 4 defenders so we can see what this season has been based on hitherto. Wildsmith has done very well to gain an above-average rating of 6.32  (6.0 is "average") given that of late he has had very little to do so limited opportunity to score above a 6.0. I'm currently working on some charts to show relative movement across the season; for example Wilson has shown considerable improvement of late, as too Hourihane and Collins. The data generally shows few surprises - I think the data has good "face validity" in that this picture will fit in with most fans' "intuitive" view of whom our best performers are.  I'm a tad surprised that NML isn't higher but I often think that some players who set a high personal standard sometimes get marked down when they don't quite reproduce that. 

Going forward, I will try and keep a more up-to-date analysis, but please bear in mind that over the last couple of days, I have spent nearly 9 hours mostly punching the data - it's quite time-consuming. I've also still go to do some analysis that some posters have asked about specifically. That will come if it shows anything of note.   

 

Surprised that a side closing in on top spot has not got a single player averaging more than 7.00. Think we must be stingy markers 😂 Little surprised too to see Nate languishing down in 7th place too. Whoscored have Cash and Nate ranked #1 and #3 at 7.47 and 7.34 respectively for the season so far. Perhaps we're tougher on our own players than neutrals are? I think I probably err in the opposite direction.

Thanks as always for putting all this together mate. A lot more interesting than the standard bickerfests on here.

[therealhantsram]

Interesting to compare with the "objective" WhoScored ratings for the season.

My thoughts: we tend to overrate Bird and Thompson (one of our own?) and underrate Hourihane (perhaps we expect more from a former PL player?)

 

[Ellafella]

52 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

Surprised that a side closing in on top spot has not got a single player averaging more than 7.00. Think we must be stingy markers 😂 Little surprised too to see Nate languishing down in 7th place too. Whoscored have Cash and Nate ranked #1 and #3 at 7.47 and 7.34 respectively for the season so far. Perhaps we're tougher on our own players than neutrals are? I think I probably err in the opposite direction.

Thanks as always for putting all this together mate. A lot more interesting than the standard bickerfests on here.

Thanks @Comrade 86 for your kind words. 

[Crewton]

Great work @Ellafella

I think some posters mark emotionally, particularly after a disappointing display, but that's all part of the analysis. It is of course an art, not a science, and some of us are more Jackson Pollock than Piet Mondrian.

[Ellafella]

28 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Great work @Ellafella

I think some posters mark emotionally, particularly after a disappointing display, but that's all part of the analysis. It is of course an art, not a science, and some of us are more Jackson Pollock than Piet Mondrian.

You’re quite right @Crewton There’s quite marked variation in average team aggregate scores (ie the sum of scores provided by each rater divided by the number of raters) and this variation correlates highly with the result ie it’s deflated when we lose and inflated when we win. The upshot is that our subjective ratings are just that…they are not a “pure” measure of how individual players “objectively” played. That said, despite the layers of subjective bias (there are probably 3 types) the obtained scores do reflect our collective “reality”. ie few would argue that  Nelson & Cashin are not standouts this season. The only surprise is NML being lower than most perceive but that’s because he’s a victim of his own success ie when he doesn’t shine he’s more likely to be scored lower even though he’s still made a big contribution. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Ellafella