Let's not be "that club"

[Asanovic70]

First, commiserations to our team & management staff for a fight bravely fought. We were always up against it after our owner put us into admin (12pts), the second deduction a real blow, the win at Stoke offered a real glimmer of hope at the end of 2021 but I think the January transfer window sealed our fate (three key blows/factors).

It's taken us two seasons to get out of the third tier each time we've ended up there. There's a healthy dose of realism on this thread, but then it's been a chastening few seasons. Browsing the points totals for the three relegated sides, they are all in the high 70s/one 80+, so assuming the worst happens (-15), another potential massive downer, but perhaps not the obstacle it has been in a very competitive division where we couldn't sign players (January) & lost key personnel & would start from the beginning of the season, rather than mid Sep (as said on BBC Derby, I think). Obviously, I hope that doesn't happen. Until a takeover is official, nothing can be assumed.

Next season, I expect us to be strong at home as we have been this season. League 1 is filled with fallen giants/underachievers (Ipswich, Portsmouth etc) as well as overachieving, well-run smaller clubs. The latter will treat going to Pride Park like a cup final & raise their game, however, few of their players will be used to playing in front of such a large crowd, 20-25k+ (the noise). Rooney has often pointed out how our young players have had to cope with this pressure.

I'm worried that there may be a bit of a hangover from such an emotionally draining season though we hardly have any players left (contracted) to feel drained (I expect Lawrence to depart). As in 1984-85, we may finish strongly with an eye on a promotion challenge the season after (85-86)

Football has evolved, and ball-playing sides can thrive in the lower leagues, however, we need to bring in a few seasoned professionals (26+ in age) & dare I say it, one or two physically aggressive players, who will make up for attitude what they lack in technique/ability. I think we have to win the physical battle first in League 1. Our away record has been poor in 2022 due to the loss of experienced players & overdependence on younger players. The radio commentary on Blackburn away suggested they bullied us second half.

Sides like Wolves & Leicester went up at the first time of asking. I don't expect that, but I think they had pragmatic managers (Pearson's first permanent job) whose sides combined the physical with ability. We need to prepare ourselves that we will have to compete in the same way Rooney adopted a siege-mentality this season with our squad.

Consolidation, hopefully avoiding another deduction & some canny moves in the transfer market, & maybe we can aim to emulate Sheff W for instance. We need to put a platform in place first & build upon it. If we have to stay down for a second season, we may be in a position to make cash signings (if allowed), specifically promising/experienced players (cherry-picking the better ones from the smaller clubs in the division, vis Bolton signing Charles from Accrington).

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Asanovic70

[Woodley Ram]

15 hours ago, TomBustler1884 said:

Disappointed to finally have relegation confirmed tonight but it was always the most likely outcome.

Looking ahead to L1, assuming the takeover happens, I'd love us to avoid being that club who thinks we will walk the league and beat all comers.

We are set for the biggest squad overhaul we've ever seen which will be HUGELY unpredictable. We will have a target on our backs all season long, and there are some big clubs here who have more experience of the slog than we do.

I'm hoping that in August I am confident and think we can compete for promotion, but let's just temper expectations for now and keep the "everything is a bonus" approach, its contributed to the best season ever for atmosphere.

I’m not sure the overhaul is going to be as big as people think. I expect most of the current team to stay, bar Lawrence, Holmes and Bielik, possibly CKR. We will sign lots of U23 and U18’s and sign 5 or 6 1st team players. The core of the team will still be there. 
 

i think we will challenge for promotion but as Sunderland and Ipswich have found it’s not a given. Promotion is our aim and we have enough spirt and character to obtain it. 

[VulcanRam]

Right now we're looking at 4 (rough) scenarios:

1. Takeover goes through with CK soon, Rooney commits to staying and we're in a position to offer contracts before the end of June. CK convinces EFL on whatever he needs to in order to avoid -15 points penalty. We start the season on 0 points and with a decent enough squad.

2. Takeover goes though with CK, but it drags on into the start of the season, Rooney commits to staying. We're able to offer minimal contracts to keep going. We start next season -15, with a small but ok squad.

3. Takeover with CK doesn't go through, but someone steps in to buy. It drags on until well after the new season starts. Rooney leaves. We start with -15 points and the bare minimum of players to see us through to January's transfer window. 

4. Takeover doesn't go through. No-one buys. Can't exit admin. Goodbye Derby County.

Until we know which one of 1-3 is a reality - ie fact and has happened, not what people choose to put on social media - we have no idea what a realistic expectation is for next season. And if it's 4, there is no next season. 

[IslandExile]

2 minutes ago, VulcanRam said:

Right now we're looking at 4 (rough) scenarios:

1. Takeover goes through with CK soon, Rooney commits to staying and we're in a position to offer contracts before the end of June. CK convinces EFL on whatever he needs to in order to avoid -15 points penalty. We start the season on 0 points and with a decent enough squad.

2. Takeover goes though with CK, but it drags on into the start of the season, Rooney commits to staying. We're able to offer minimal contracts to keep going. We start next season -15, with a small but ok squad.

3. Takeover with CK doesn't go through, but someone steps in to buy. It drags on until well after the new season starts. Rooney leaves. We start with -15 points and the bare minimum of players to see us through to January's transfer window. 

4. Takeover doesn't go through. No-one buys. Can't exit admin. Goodbye Derby County.

Until we know which one of 1-3 is a reality - ie fact and has happened, not what people choose to put on social media - we have no idea what a realistic expectation is for next season. And if it's 4, there is no next season. 

I vote for option 1.

Thank you.

[BramcoteRam84]

Liquidation is about a 5% chance now, CK if he has the finances should complete the takeover and hes putting an offer forward to avoid points deductions. If it falls through, Ashley will buy us but we’ll probably be -15 no Rooney no squad, that’s the worse case scenario. Yes takeover is still far from done but I’m not worried about liquidation, tbh I haven’t been for a while now.

Onto next season, assuming the takeover goes through and Rooney stays then I think we will be in an excellent position to bounce straight back. We have an identity, a plan, and I have confidence he will make the right signings to fit that plan. It’s not a given and we should remain humble throughout and not be big time about it. But assuming CK takeover happens and Rooney stays there isn’t any reason not to be confident we can at least mount a top 6 challenge and put ourselves in the frame for promotion. If Rooney goes and it all drags on and we get any further points deductions then it could be difficult and we could get stuck there for years. The next couple of months are absolutely critical.

If I look at teams that have got stuck, Forest - relegated after manager changes playing dire football with overpaid old pros and old school pragmatism under Megson, club was toxic, likewise Ipswich under Lambert who had gone down with just over 20 points, Sunderland were in a toxic situation absolute chaos massive wages.
 

If the takeover is done quickly we have a management team with a plan with serious momentum if we can keep 75% of this squad together and add to it. If we made a change, went with an old school experienced manager and signed a load of the wrong type of senior pros and ignored the academy then we would get stuck or drop lower. It’s important we don’t make the same mistakes as those clubs I’ve mentioned.
 

 

[Asanovic70]

1 hour ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

The next couple of months are absolutely critical.

Yes, I agree, which explains Rooney's sense of urgency about the situation. I do think this squad needs more experience, however, the right sort of experience, and sometimes the sort of unheralded player who has been there & done it, i.e. Richie Smallwood (Rotherham, Hull). Sean Flynn under Jim Smith. Their tenure may be brief but they make a telling contribution, helping to get the side over the line. 

The platform is there, a ball-playing side with an identity can get out of the division (Swansea). Forest appointed Calderwood, whose career since has been checkered, but he molded a side built on Academy players & shrewd acquisitions. I'd like to think Rooney - should he stay - is smart enough to know League 1 & we were linked to Charles pre-season. We'll probably have to play the loan market well, too.

I agree with your point about Ashley . I think the Council's offer/overtures to buy the ground & lease it back to the club could be key. It may be the decisive factor helping to facilitate any takeover.