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Do we need to be more offensive?


Ellafella
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Seems a bit of a fatuous question (then again I have had a couple of George & Thorne's) but do we need to become more offensive to gain promotion this season or given how we are going along should we stay as we are? The reason I posit this question right now is  the window is opening shortly, but reading between the most recent Mac lines, I suspect he's not going to recruit a goalscorer - ie an out and out striker, preferring instead to stick with Bent, with Blackman maybe coming good finally after his most recent injury. 

I've checked out the most recent Experimental 3-6-1 tables from Dec 18 and reproduced them below because the added value they give is to show how Derby compare on some critical key indicators, compared with all the other Championship sides. The graphs show:

Graph 1:We are bang average when it comes to the number of shots we have in most games (13). We do manage to have more shots than we have to face (11.5) but there are lots of teams who create more shooting opportunities than we do. Should that be a concern?

Graph 2:We have a high ratio of shots to goals scored ie we only manage an average number of shots per game (13) but we only score once every 12.5 shots, which means we are not really creating that many quality chances...that doesn't augur well for the remainder of the season. Newcastle, Brighton, Reading, Fulham and even the Red Dogs are way better than us on this aspect. That does concern me. 

Graph 3: Clearly illustrates what our improvement under Mac has been about...we face an average of 17 shots on Carson's goal before we concede and only Brighton (my bet to go up as Champs) are superior ( Pearce and Keogh and Johnson take a bow!). Newcastle have a relatively dodgy defence in comparison which is why they won't win the league (unless they change something). 

Graph 4:Clearly illustrates that, for me, we need to do something to increase our offensiveness. We have scored the same number of goals as Rotherham (24th place), Burton (21st place) and only Wigan (23rd) and Ipswich (16th place) have scored fewer.

Some might say at this point if you don't concede you only have to score 1 and also give the example of Burnley who got promoted last season by scoring a very low ratio of goals per game. However, it's a risk strategy, especially if Johnson or Pearce gets injured (not an unlikely scenario, given that we have already lost 4 fullbacks this season). My blood is boiling at this point because of course that baffoon called Pearson loaned our best striker to one of our rivals for promotion this season, and interestingly Fulham are much more of an attacking threat than we are. We really do need to find another source of goals for the 2nd half of the season...be that an attacking midfielder or a goal-hungry frontman. Has Mac got a plan? Will Messrs Evans and McClaren (jnr) deliver? :mellow:.

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Think Sky did a comparison of a few stats for derby under pearson and derby under mcclaren, in the moments just before kickoff against birmingham.

Most stats like goals scored, goals against, clean sheets, points etc were as you would expect.

But i think it also showed we have had less possesion percentage and less attempts on goal under McClaren.

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I think it's also important to highlight just how negative most teams have been when coming to PP. This has certainly helped us in managing to nick the odd goal here and there and pick up the wins. We have very little to worry about at the other end.

I'm in no way making light of the clean sheets record but all of the teams that have come to PP under Mac this season with the exception of a brief flurry by Leeds and long spells of possession by Wednesday that couldn't be turned into meaningful chances, every one have been no test at all for our defence.

My opinion is that if we play someone who comes and has a real sustained go at us then we could struggle.

I do reiterate that the clean sheet record is incredible and you can't take anything away from the players for achieving that but often I do feel that we wouldn't know how to handle a side who goes at us from the off.

Hopefully i won't see these feelings realised and we'll just continue winning games.

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3 minutes ago, Tony Le Mesmer said:

I think it's also important to highlight just how negative most teams have been when coming to PP. This has certainly helped us in managing to nick the odd goal here and there and pick up the wins. We have very little to worry about at the other end.

I'm in no way making light of the clean sheets record but all of the teams that have come to PP under Mac this season with the exception of a brief flurry by Leeds and long spells of possession by Wednesday that couldn't be turned into meaningful chances, every one have been no test at all for our defence.

My opinion is that if we play someone who comes and has a real sustained go at us then we could struggle.

I do reiterate that the clean sheet record is incredible and you can't take anything away from the players for achieving that but often I do feel that we wouldn't know how to handle a side who goes at us from the off.

Hopefully i won't see these feelings realised and we'll just continue winning games.

Good point Tony but i think a team that has a sustained go at us would be susceptible to our quick breaks. We look dangerous every time we break at the moment. Teams are having to work hard to create a chance against us knowing we can break in a second if they give the ball away.

Teams will be worrying how to handle us rather than the other way round i reckon.

 

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3 hours ago, Tony Le Mesmer said:

I think it's also important to highlight just how negative most teams have been when coming to PP. This has certainly helped us in managing to nick the odd goal here and there and pick up the wins. We have very little to worry about at the other end.

I'm in no way making light of the clean sheets record but all of the teams that have come to PP under Mac this season with the exception of a brief flurry by Leeds and long spells of possession by Wednesday that couldn't be turned into meaningful chances, every one have been no test at all for our defence.

My opinion is that if we play someone who comes and has a real sustained go at us then we could struggle.

I do reiterate that the clean sheet record is incredible and you can't take anything away from the players for achieving that but often I do feel that we wouldn't know how to handle a side who goes at us from the off.

Hopefully i won't see these feelings realised and we'll just continue winning games.

I think Norwich gave us a good test but were found wanting with their final ball.

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Charts just confirm that defensively we are a rock but right now we have one moderately dangerous forward player which is Ince so we need more creativity and goalscoring from the Butterfield, russell and Bent positions. It's prob why we are gunning for Sako and Rhodes. With Thorne returning you can bump Butterfield and go 4-2-3-1 so Sako + Rhodes would work although Blackman deserves a shot at centre forward when he gets back.

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8 hours ago, Tony Le Mesmer said:

I think it's also important to highlight just how negative most teams have been when coming to PP. This has certainly helped us in managing to nick the odd goal here and there and pick up the wins. We have very little to worry about at the other end.

I'm in no way making light of the clean sheets record but all of the teams that have come to PP under Mac this season with the exception of a brief flurry by Leeds and long spells of possession by Wednesday that couldn't be turned into meaningful chances, every one have been no test at all for our defence.

My opinion is that if we play someone who comes and has a real sustained go at us then we could struggle.

I do reiterate that the clean sheet record is incredible and you can't take anything away from the players for achieving that but often I do feel that we wouldn't know how to handle a side who goes at us from the off.

Hopefully i won't see these feelings realised and we'll just continue winning games.

To be fair though i dont think teams are anywhere near as negative as they have been in the previous couple of seasons when we were playing well, i dont think its been that bad this season.

At times it was painful to watch, the milwall game at home which we lost 1-0 was probably the worst of all, its a surprise milwall even managed to put a team out the following week with the number of injuries they sustained during the game which needed stoppages for.

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