Chasing the Premiership Dream

[mcsilks]

So of the sides at the top, who is best equipped to win the battle for those top two places?

It looked from the outset that Hull, Boro, Derby and Burnley would be battling it out and so it is proving to be. History has suggested that there will be one surprise challenger and the likes of Brighton, Wednesday and Reading may well provide that. 

So who has the best squad and best management and therefore likely the best chance of having what it takes? 

The squads: Hull have the strongest looking midfield for me with Meyler, Elmohamady, and Livermore keeping the likes of Diame and Huddlestone out of the side. With Hernandez, Aloko and Akpom up front, they have so many options and cover. 

Boro are the strongest defensively and are proving tough again to score against. They have players and good back-up for all positions in the back line. Not a lot of creativity going forward however.

Burnley have managed to keep most of their squad that played last season together and have added to that with Barton and Gray. Gray in particular is proving to be a top signing and is proving unstoppable at this level. 

Derby have good strength in depth in midfield and whilst adding to that in the summer, might still come up short if with their over reliance on Martin and a lack of depth in defensive positions. 

 

Of the management, I would have to say that Bruce is the most experienced having seen it and done it all before. Hull certainly made a good decision in not letting him go.

The same could be said for Dyche and Burnley. Many said that he actually improved his management stock last season with Burnley giving it a real go. 

Karanka has the experience he gained over the last two seasons promotion pushes.

Clement is the new kid on the block. 

 

With the current squads, I would take Hull over the distance to make a quick return with Burnley leaving Derby and Boro frustrated and facing the lottery that is the play-offs.

If we can add to our defensive options and maybe bring in more options up front then I can see Derby keeping up the pace. 

[Bris Vegas]

Thing is, it's all about consistency.

Derby could keep winning, but then it may not matter if Burnley and Hull do the same.

I think Derby are more than a match for them two when it comes to head-to-head matches, yet they just don't look like slipping up if when they're not playing that well.

Hull have won the last two away games 2-0, but in both matches they were dominated in the first-half and improved in the second half to win it. Burnley, likewise, aren't dominating games but winning comfortably enough.

They're both very frustrating from a Derby perspective. They're nothing like the trio of Watord, Bournemouth and Norwich who consistently hammered teams and looked like scoring bags of goals.

It's a four-way battle for two places. I just hope we don't give them too big of a gap to bridge.

I still back Boro though. They've already played Derby, Reading, Sheff Wed away and have Hull and Brighton away before Xmas. Fixtures wise, they could have all the key games at home in the second half of the campaign.

 

 

[Alph]

Burnley are a hoofball team who lose territory and possession regularly. But it seems that's how they want it. 

When we bossed them they still managed to create 2 good chances.

When you look statistically they are rarely the better side. When you watch them they aren't creative. I watched them v Rotherham I think and it was Rotherham's final ball everytime that kept Burnley safe. Then they muster and handful of chances and win the game. 

Last night. They were matched by Fulham or bettered  in whatever analysis you can come up with but they won 3-1. 

I'm not suggesting they're lucky. It appears they take their chances and give few quality chances away. 

They aren't the ugliest team in the division but they certainly aren't pretty. 

[Dimmu]

21 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Burnley are a hoofball team who lose territory and possession regularly. But it seems that's how they want it. 

When we bossed them they still managed to create 2 good chances.

When you look statistically they are rarely the better side. When you watch them they aren't creative. I watched them v Rotherham I think and it was Rotherham's final ball everytime that kept Burnley safe. Then they muster and handful of chances and win the game. 

Last night. They were matched by Fulham or bettered  in whatever analysis you can come up with but they won 3-1. 

I'm not suggesting they're lucky. It appears they take their chances and give few quality chances away. 

They aren't the ugliest team in the division but they certainly aren't pretty. 

Ah, opportunity to critisize Keogh. And twice!

I won't do it though as he has got away with his mistakes this year (expect couple).

[Alph]

Imo too, I agree Dyche stock raised last season. People here were calling for him. It was said that Burnley had a real go by many.

They didn't. They looked like getting relegated all season. The hype around Dyche was bizarre. There's a list of managers people would laugh at that did what he did. Some of their teams survived too. Blackpool is what I call having a go. Nobody won less games than Burnley. Nobody scored less goals. Only QPR lost more matches. 

The media took to him. Like they did with Sherwood. Then everyone started banging on about how well Burnley have done. 

Not going to lie, it got and still gets under my skin. How up his arse everyone was. How quite a few Rams fans wanted him here because he did what no other man (apart from Bothroyd, Coyle, Warnock, Holloway, Jewell...) did before him. Get an unfashionable Champ team promoted. 

[craic dispenser]

Wait until Christmas to see how it settles down. 5 teams aren't going to keep the momentum going like we all have so far. Usually I look at what others do but not any more, we can't influence their results until we play them so just keep grinding away.

[CornwallRam]

I think our potential problem is the same as last season's - being reliant on Chris Martin.

Although Clement has played several systems, the only one that has made us look like promotion material is 433. We all know that we just don't have another player to replace Chris, and for all the reasons that Mel and Sam mentioned at the forum. But understanding the reasons doesn't alter the fact that an injury to Martin could once again derail our season. Where I'd disagree with Mel is that I'd argue that Martin's absence had a huge amount to do with our defensive problems as there was no one up front to hold the ball up and we conceded possession far too easily. Hopefully, Clement would deal with it better than McClaren did, and maybe we'd even be able to bring in a decent like-for-like player, but I'd say it is still the biggest threat to our promotion hopes.

[cloughandtaylor]

2 hours ago, CornwallRam said:

I think our potential problem is the same as last season's - being reliant on Chris Martin.

Although Clement has played several systems, the only one that has made us look like promotion material is 433. We all know that we just don't have another player to replace Chris, and for all the reasons that Mel and Sam mentioned at the forum. But understanding the reasons doesn't alter the fact that an injury to Martin could once again derail our season. Where I'd disagree with Mel is that I'd argue that Martin's absence had a huge amount to do with our defensive problems as there was no one up front to hold the ball up and we conceded possession far too easily. Hopefully, Clement would deal with it better than McClaren did, and maybe we'd even be able to bring in a decent like-for-like player, but I'd say it is still the biggest threat to our promotion hopes.

100% agreement.

[ariotofmyown]

A big reason why our form dropped when we reached the top last season was that we still had nearly all the hard teams to play.  After Xmas we played ok against mostly the poorer teams and climbed to the top. Injuires hit of course, but we couldn't cope when we played against the top teams.

What happens up to the halfway point this season is going to be very interesting.  We've currently got 5 teams all averaging 2 points per game.  Who has got the easiest matches before everyone has played each other once.

Hull: 3 vs top 5, 3 easy, 2 harder plus League Cup ('easy' games in bold)

Boro H, Bristol A, Derby H, (Man City), Leeds A, Bolton H, Reading H, Rotherham A, Burnley H

Burnley: 3 vs top 3, 1 easy, 4 harder

Wolves A, Brigton H, Cardiff A, Preston H, QPR A, Boro A, Charlton H, Hull A

Brighton: 3 vs top 3, 2 easy, 3 harder

MK Dons H, Burnley A, Brum H, Charlton H, Derby A, QPR A, Boro H, Brentford A

Boro: 3 vs top 3, 0 easy, 5 harder plus League Cup

Hull A, QPR H, Huddersfield A, (Everton), Ipswich A, Brum H, Burnley H, Brighton A, Blackburn A

Us: 2 vs top 3, 1 easy, 5 harder

Forest A, Cardiff H, Hull A, Sheff Wed A, Brighton H, Bristol H, Ipswich A, Fulham H

Not many games vs bottom teams where you would expect a win (I've not marked local matches as easy).  Hull seem to have the best fixtures for picking up some straight forward wins. We are the only team with 2 games vs the top 5 compared to the others have 3 each. 

As well as us needing to beat Bristol, it would be great to get 3 points in the very winnable Forest, Cardiff and Fulham matches.  If we did, then draws vs Hull, Sheff, Brighton and Ipswich should be sufficient.

There are going to be lots of points dropped over the next 2 months and we hopefully won't see many more weeks like this one, where we win and nearly all the others do too.

[SaintRam]

This early on, I still don't have a predicted top 2. But I do believe it will be 2 of Hull, Burnley, Boro and Derby. I'd call Brighton outsiders but still in for it and you can't, in this league, rule out a surge from a team elsewhere in the top 10.

In my opinion Hull and Derby have the strongest overall squads, while Burnley, Boro and Brighton are more susceptible to first team injuries effecting their chances - but remaining injury free have just as strong starting XIs.

[Wolfie]

I wouldn't rule out a surge from Sheff Wednesday. That'll be a big game I reckon.

[ClaretMatt]

5 hours ago, Alpha said:

Burnley are a hoofball team who lose territory and possession regularly. But it seems that's how they want it. 

When we bossed them they still managed to create 2 good chances.

When you look statistically they are rarely the better side. When you watch them they aren't creative. I watched them v Rotherham I think and it was Rotherham's final ball everytime that kept Burnley safe. Then they muster and handful of chances and win the game. 

Last night. They were matched by Fulham or bettered  in whatever analysis you can come up with but they won 3-1. 

I'm not suggesting they're lucky. It appears they take their chances and give few quality chances away. 

They aren't the ugliest team in the division but they certainly aren't pretty. 

There's a difference between hoofball and counter-attacking.  We don't play possession football but we don't hit it long and fight over scraps as you have suggested here/in the past.  If you look at our goals from the last 5 games there's only one that could be said to be a goal that came from "hit and scrap" but that was a freekick from inside the oppositions half, not a long punt from defence, that was curled home from 20 yards after some penalty box pinball.

Last night we dominated the first half before Fulham came out fighting in the second, we sat back and organised ourselves to hold on to our lead, allowing them possession in their own half, even then we hit the bar and had a header cleared off the line before scoring a late goal.  Only one side was "bettered" in that match and it wasn't Burnley.

[Srg]

5 minutes ago, ClaretMatt said:

There's a difference between hoofball and counter-attacking.  We don't play possession football but we don't hit it long and fight over scraps as you have suggested here/in the past.  If you look at our goals from the last 5 games there's only one that could be said to be a goal that came from "hit and scrap" but that was a freekick from inside the oppositions half, not a long punt from defence, that was curled home from 20 yards after some penalty box pinball.

Last night we dominated the first half before Fulham came out fighting in the second, we sat back and organised ourselves to hold on to our lead, allowing them possession in their own half, even then we hit the bar and had a header cleared off the line before scoring a late goal.  Only one side was "bettered" in that match and it wasn't Burnley.

When you came here you went reasonably long and were just "putting it an area" all night, just playing percentages. Admittedly, only seen you once since so you may have improved.

[ClaretMatt]

4 minutes ago, Srg said:

When you came here you went reasonably long and were just "putting it an area" all night, just playing percentages. Admittedly, only seen you once since so you may have improved.

We were playing 1 midfielder, 3 wingers and 2 target men once Gray went off against you.  We're a very different prospect with Barton in midfield and Gray/Long up front.

[Srg]

10 minutes ago, ClaretMatt said:

We were playing 1 midfielder, 3 wingers and 2 target men once Gray went off against you.  We're a very different prospect with Barton in midfield and Gray/Long up front.

As with most of us, we can only comment on what we've seen.

[Dale The Ram]

10 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

I still back Boro though. They've already played Derby, Reading, Sheff Wed away and have Hull and Brighton away before Xmas. Fixtures wise, they could have all the key games at home in the second half of the campaign.

Personally I dont think it matters too much on whether they are home or away. If they win away, they will be confident on the return leg, if they won at home they will be confident in doing the double.

 

i can see how fans can influence games though

[B4ev6is]

I say burnly are a very lucky side and sooner or later someome going to thrash them.

[Philmycock]

7 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

I say burnly are a very lucky side and sooner or later someome going to thrash them.

I say you are too blinkered and haven't got a grip on reality regarding DCFC/attendances/opponents etc 

[mcsilks]

A lot of knocking of Burnley on here. Folks always talk of the spine of a side.

Heaton, Keane, Barton, Gray. Probably the best spine in the Championship and an improvement on what the had last season.

Their style is well suited to this league also. Quite direct and no nonsense. 

Derby would have likely gone up last season if they could have adjusted their system and played a little more of the direct game. Not as easy on the eye but effective.

[ariotofmyown]

Keane better than Shackell and Gray better than Ings?