Phoenix Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 How do they define 'inadequate'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Phoenix said: How do they define 'inadequate'? less than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 It’s been well over 20 years since I was last on unemployment benefit so (luckily for me) it’s not something I’ve had to think about A mate of mine recently got made redundant and started claiming JSA and it sounds pretty ridiculous. Apparently if you can get a part-time job up to 16 hrs a week you get to keep £5 of your JSA. Some incentive huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, StivePesley said: It’s been well over 20 years since I was last on unemployment benefit so (luckily for me) it’s not something I’ve had to think about A mate of mine recently got made redundant and started claiming JSA and it sounds pretty ridiculous. Apparently if you can get a part-time job up to 16 hrs a week you get to keep £5 of your JSA. Some incentive huh? so this poor sod lost her job of 20 years, she has three kids and her fella is not earning, so she has to attend the job centre daily (mon-fri) for advice sessions for a 30 minutes consultation/help program and this lasts for 4 weeks, her local job centre is roughly 800 miles away and then they give her 20 pence per mile (nothing for the first 2 mile) if she can issue receipts, the parking alone is £2.00 per hour, she then has to sign on at different times to her so called help program so she sometimes travels twice daily or stays local to the job centre thus increasing parking costs, after all that she received just over £100 a fortnight, so minus the travel/parking she would probably afford a packet of crisps, they should try and shift the millions of workshy lifers off benefits and try and support people that have actually contributed to society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, LesterRam said: so this poor sod lost her job of 20 years, she has three kids and her fella is not earning, so she has to attend the job centre daily (mon-fri) for advice sessions for a 30 minutes consultation/help program and this lasts for 4 weeks, her local job centre is roughly 800 miles away and then they give her 20 pence per mile (nothing for the first 2 mile) if she can issue receipts, the parking alone is £2.00 per hour, she then has to sign on at different times to her so called help program so she sometimes travels twice daily or stays local to the job centre thus increasing parking costs, after all that she received just over £100 a fortnight, so minus the travel/parking she would probably afford a packet of crisps, they should try and shift the millions of workshy lifers off benefits and try and support people that have actually contributed to society. Yeah he was saying the same sort of stuff - has to attend these daily sessions, even though the Job Centre he has to attend has no parking, and the nearest car park is a bit of a walk away (he's disabled and walks with sticks) and it has no toilets (his disability means he has bladder issues), and then when he gets there the sessions are pointless as it's clearly aimed at low-skilled & helpless people. He's degree-educated and doesn't really need to be shown how to use MS Word to write a CV. If he doesn't show up he gets sanctioned. If he doesn't apply for jobs they suggest he gets sanctioned (realistically he wouldn't be able to do most of those jobs anyway due to his disability) The whole thing seems designed to make people give up and avoid claiming altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, StivePesley said: Yeah he was saying the same sort of stuff - has to attend these daily sessions, even though the Job Centre he has to attend has no parking, and the nearest car park is a bit of a walk away (he's disabled and walks with sticks) and it has no toilets (his disability means he has bladder issues), and then when he gets there the sessions are pointless as it's clearly aimed at low-skilled & helpless people. He's degree-educated and doesn't really need to be shown how to use MS Word to write a CV. If he doesn't show up he gets sanctioned. If he doesn't apply for jobs they suggest he gets sanctioned (realistically he wouldn't be able to do most of those jobs anyway due to his disability) The whole thing seems designed to make people give up and avoid claiming altogether the problem we have is that most public services are box ticking exercises, we should have a plan designed specific to each case, you contact a general call centre as the first port of call, you are given a time slot and this is undertaken by a robotised human who is in a very low paid job and clearly doesn't give a rats arse about anything related to your case, she fills a set amount of fields on her PC before it accepts the form, its not her fault I know. now your friend sounds like a genuine case and what he endured was piss poor on so many levels, if you use this fixed and rigid system of box ticking it is open to fraud, I can claim disability allowance for bad back (cant prove), depression (cant prove), ADHD (cant prove) and even Obesity (eat less chips) because I need to prove I cannot walk a set distance, obviously I cannot walk in front of this woman with a clipboard because I will lose the majority of my benefits when she ticks yes, so I collapse within the first few steps, all the genuine cases that have a valid reason to claim and have genuine costs associated by a debilitating condition are lumped into the same bracket as these workshy scrounging *****, it is a sad state of affairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I figured this would be as good a place as any for this question... I have about €4500 in a European bank. What's the cheapest way of getting this money into my bank account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: I figured this would be as good a place as any for this question... I have about €4500 in a European bank. What's the cheapest way of getting this money into my bank account? Should be able to just do a BACS transfer. My bank would charge me £4.00 to do that. Though I'm usually sending it out of UK account, so maybe it'd be different the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: I figured this would be as good a place as any for this question... I have about €4500 in a European bank. What's the cheapest way of getting this money into my bank account? My mate the son of a Nigerian King can transfer this very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, ketteringram said: Should be able to just do a BACS transfer. My bank would charge me £4.00 to do that. Though I'm usually sending it out of UK account, so maybe it'd be different the other way around. Isn't BACS between UK clearing houses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, LesterRam said: Isn't BACS between UK clearing houses? I don't know. I thought that was the correct term. Maybe not. But I make a transfer every month, from my UK account, to a euro account in Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 SWIFT not BACS - but it's the same end result Probably need to be careful with the tax man if it's 4.5k. They will come sniffing around for Capital Gains Tax if you can't account for where it came from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, StivePesley said: SWIFT not BACS - but it's the same end result Probably need to be careful with the tax man if it's 4.5k. They will come sniffing around for Capital Gains Tax if you can't account for where it came from Tell your missus to open an account with the same bank and transfer half over to her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRamFan Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, StivePesley said: SWIFT not BACS - but it's the same end result Probably need to be careful with the tax man if it's 4.5k. They will come sniffing around for Capital Gains Tax if you can't account for where it came from Thought it was closer to £6k, I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 22/12/2016 at 19:02, Guest SillyBilly said: A look back at 2016 and into new year, anyone else please contribute general tips and advice. Looking back on 2016, a bond market crash hasn't happened as I thought it would have by now. Yields are going lower as a global average (not spiking with loss of confidence) with negative yields on sovereign debt becoming an accepted "norm". I personally still wouldn't touch bonds as buying 30-40 highs with no to little yield doesn't strike me as an investment that has legs on a medium term basis. Unless experienced I would stay away from corporate bonds too, so much debt has been sanctioned at low interest rates in a low return environment, if interest rates did reverse, a lot of companies will be caught wrong-footed. I guess nobody expects interest rates to rise but the market has a habit of turning a consensus on its head at the drop of a hat! FTSE 100/FTSE 250 are (just) off their respective 2015 highs so other than dividend returns nothing much has happened besides the usual swings. FTSE 250 (or 350) is a looking the riskier bet to me for 2017 - this will be hit the hardest on any forthcoming Brexit uncertainty, these are businesses deriving most of their income in the UK and who for whom a weaker pound is negative overall for the index (net importers). The FTSE 100 is an odd one as a resurgent USD and weaker pound can prop it up even when earnings are actually decreasing or at best, stabilising. In short, if cautious and if wanting to invest in UK equities I would favour FTSE 100 for now...but again know you're buying in at highs (albeit inflation adjusted these are not highs). The markets look reasonably pricey on earnings alone. Commodities have had a slight recovery but I'm still staying clear. I think the dollar rally is not done yet and that would be bad news for the miners. Precious metals had a fantastic start to the year before peaking around August. I sold out about halfway into the rally and am now targeting re-entry around $1050/ounce gold & $14/ounce silver. Much below that and supply becomes unprofitable for all but the lowest cost producers so I'd be comfortable accumulating at or below those prices for an extended period of time. Dollar strength obviously works against gold and silver too. Of note should be the fact that this business cycle is now an old man and the UK has NEVER gone longer than 9 years in between recessions, we're approaching that (last recession was Q4 2009). Those who don't believe central banks are omnipotent in preventing the "bust" of capitalism's inherent "boom and bust" nature (by dropping interest rates to the floor and printing money) then that should be a confirmation to err on the side of caution in investment terms this far in (my opinion only). The Lifetime ISA is available as of April 2017 (18-40 year olds only). Anyone thinking of starting up a HTB (help-to-buy) ISA should wait until this one comes out as the former becomes effectively less attractive. Speak to your ISA provider to see if you can convert into a Lifetime ISA (I believe this should be possible in most cases). 25% government contribution on payments in (max £1000/year gov contr.). A good supplementary savings vehicle to a pension (take note you will be penalised on withdrawals unless for a house purchase or after you turn 60). You can use it as a cash ISA or a Stocks & Shares ISA. Given the investment timeline, I'd recommend some dividend stocks or passive market trackers, you can forget about these then and take a look when you're 60 or ready to settle down! ISA limit goes up to £20k per annum from April 2017. The personal tax allowance is going up in April (from £11k to £11.5k). Remember if you are married and you or your partner are a low income earner (less than £11.5k) then you can transfer any "unused" allowance up to a value of £1100 to the higher earning spouse to reduce their tax bill. This could pay for a season ticket so not to be scoffed at. It is easy to do so no excuses! 40p tax payers will see earnings threshold raised to £45k which is a considerable tick up. This naturally means for basic rate (20p) payers all earnings over £11.5k and up to £45k (£33500 max) is taxable at the basic rate. For those of you who do salary sacrifice, be cheeky at your pay review and ask for your employers' national insurance contribution (13.8% saving accrued to them) on top, failing that agree to share the proceeds 50:50). On a global level, continue to watch China. They are on a debt binge the pace of which the world has never seen before, not even close. There is no precedent for that not ending badly. China's trillion dollar reserves will be eviscerated very quickly if the State attempts (which it will do) to reverse the deleveraging process (and to prop up the Yuan as capital flees). Where China goes the world will follow. Just thought I'd bump this post and thread, partly in reflection but mainly as interested in his thoughts but mainly in case SB is around as occassionally does post. Bond markets still look frail to me, not that i play them but with interest rates creeping up, armageddon on is still on hold! personally I've squirrelled bits of pension pots away into gilts, more because I feared for the stock markets though. This cheap debt has to come home to roost sometime, when yields really rise, I expect bonds will hurt, how hard who knows. So what for the markets? Armageddon in the stock markets too never really came in 2017, despite many doomsters predicting a crash; can understand S.B's pessimism at the time though, global stock markets still look toppy. For that reason, the few stock picks I hold are heavily centred on value plays around commodities, whichever index they be on(U.K, ASX or TSV etc). GDX for instance, may yet indicate a crack in the strength of commodity plays, but I would rather be in P.M stocks than general market ones. So commodities for me are of interest and they recover again the last quarter, as they have gradually most of the year. Taking Gold as S.B quoted the $1050 re-entry, I think they have more chance now of reaching $1400-1450 than going the opposite way, just because of global uncertainty, threats and markets flying on fumes as i see it. Other resources such as Copper have had bounces, recently on China cut back news, Lithium remains of interest due to the battery market, as does Graphene but trying to pick winning stocks to follow at early stage development is not for the faint hearted. For some of these picks the changes in ISA limits for me have made a small difference, I've encouraged my kids into saving by using Kids ISA's and will do the same with Lifetime ISA's, as anything to legally stave off the tax man is a good thing, right?! I've been surprised to see Bitcoin discussed on this forum, usually when something in a strong upward trajectory starts getting widely noticed and reaching the masses (without wishing to sound disrespectful to anyone), you could start to question is a bubble about to pop? Don't want to sound like I'm one of the F.O.M.O's though at some point, if I change my mind. People like Buffet who has sounded his umpteenth warning about it not having value, as it's not a value producing asset; consistently he has urged investors to stay away from it! Myself I just had the chance in 2011/12 and passed the opportunity due to laziness to learn and understand a new market, so generally i keep out of the debate. Bitcoins sudden lurch down the last few weeks does not surprise, I just think like all ALT-coins be it Etherum or even more obscure like Ripple a permissioned blockchain, I've caught glimpeses of them all and missed huge gains because deep down part of me says tullip mania waiting to happen. So not wanting to become a FOMO I've left it all alone, knowing they will probably be around for sometime but sticking with what I know. Globally SB mentioned China, I think in many people's lifetimes who read this forum, they will eventually replace the USA as the world financial super power, whether or not that is fuelled by a debt binge, to me it's a certainty. America will become more isolationist and withdraw as it's economy struggles. that's not pessimistic, I'm more optimistic for 2018 than I've been for many a new year. Property markets look nervy in the U.K but then the government wants to fuel housing supply. I've property besides my home, held for kids and rented out but not overly exposed. My investments seem to make sense to me and I've traded reasonably. My eldest has found part time work to supplement his studies and is saving for a car, so I kind of feel a sense of financial calm and I'm fortunate not to be exposed to debt too much; whilst profiting where I can with high hopes for a few stocks in the main. But then deep down, whatever, I tend to be more an optimist than pessimist, even when markets look bleak. Wonder if SB is around to share his thoughts, or anyone else that wants to comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 29/12/2017 at 11:20, Zag zig said: Just thought I'd bump this post and thread, partly in reflection but mainly as interested in his thoughts but mainly in case SB is around as occassionally does post. Bond markets still look frail to me, not that i play them but with interest rates creeping up, armageddon on is still on hold! personally I've squirrelled bits of pension pots away into gilts, more because I feared for the stock markets though. This cheap debt has to come home to roost sometime, when yields really rise, I expect bonds will hurt, how hard who knows. So what for the markets? Armageddon in the stock markets too never really came in 2017, despite many doomsters predicting a crash; can understand S.B's pessimism at the time though, global stock markets still look toppy. For that reason, the few stock picks I hold are heavily centred on value plays around commodities, whichever index they be on(U.K, ASX or TSV etc). GDX for instance, may yet indicate a crack in the strength of commodity plays, but I would rather be in P.M stocks than general market ones. So commodities for me are of interest and they recover again the last quarter, as they have gradually most of the year. Taking Gold as S.B quoted the $1050 re-entry, I think they have more chance now of reaching $1400-1450 than going the opposite way, just because of global uncertainty, threats and markets flying on fumes as i see it. Other resources such as Copper have had bounces, recently on China cut back news, Lithium remains of interest due to the battery market, as does Graphene but trying to pick winning stocks to follow at early stage development is not for the faint hearted. For some of these picks the changes in ISA limits for me have made a small difference, I've encouraged my kids into saving by using Kids ISA's and will do the same with Lifetime ISA's, as anything to legally stave off the tax man is a good thing, right?! I've been surprised to see Bitcoin discussed on this forum, usually when something in a strong upward trajectory starts getting widely noticed and reaching the masses (without wishing to sound disrespectful to anyone), you could start to question is a bubble about to pop? Don't want to sound like I'm one of the F.O.M.O's though at some point, if I change my mind. People like Buffet who has sounded his umpteenth warning about it not having value, as it's not a value producing asset; consistently he has urged investors to stay away from it! Myself I just had the chance in 2011/12 and passed the opportunity due to laziness to learn and understand a new market, so generally i keep out of the debate. Bitcoins sudden lurch down the last few weeks does not surprise, I just think like all ALT-coins be it Etherum or even more obscure like Ripple a permissioned blockchain, I've caught glimpeses of them all and missed huge gains because deep down part of me says tullip mania waiting to happen. So not wanting to become a FOMO I've left it all alone, knowing they will probably be around for sometime but sticking with what I know. Globally SB mentioned China, I think in many people's lifetimes who read this forum, they will eventually replace the USA as the world financial super power, whether or not that is fuelled by a debt binge, to me it's a certainty. America will become more isolationist and withdraw as it's economy struggles. that's not pessimistic, I'm more optimistic for 2018 than I've been for many a new year. Property markets look nervy in the U.K but then the government wants to fuel housing supply. I've property besides my home, held for kids and rented out but not overly exposed. My investments seem to make sense to me and I've traded reasonably. My eldest has found part time work to supplement his studies and is saving for a car, so I kind of feel a sense of financial calm and I'm fortunate not to be exposed to debt too much; whilst profiting where I can with high hopes for a few stocks in the main. But then deep down, whatever, I tend to be more an optimist than pessimist, even when markets look bleak. Wonder if SB is around to share his thoughts, or anyone else that wants to comment? Still around ZR and nice post! A point on cryptos, I read them as merely another manifestation of mistrust in fiat currencies and moneyed control over the financial system; a geek's equivalent of the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011 but with some interesting future consequences. The current e-currency variations are all first edition, none will last and none are of any interest now unless you like gambling. Bitcoin is merely first mover; all are provingly obselete with their block chain technology, each trading off between one another in speed, security or fairness and yet not one having all three courtesy of the underlying method and principle. Alternatives like Hashgraph are blatantly now second edition and something will emerge out of that or another iteration of the same technology. In other words, watch the space but a trip to Vegas could be as lucrative! The markets are being led by the biggest market caps marching to relentlessly more crazy P/E ratios, if you've picked individual stocks, unless your Buffett or Soros you've probably been badly beaten as most stocks are down yet indices are at record highs. It is this sort of unbalanced performance that makes me very cautious about putting money in. On PMs we're watching the same numbers ZR. Fundamentally my position is the same, I think PMs will be the best long term investment over the next 10 years or so but the journey to there in my lens is: Dollar Index continues its current trend down for now but this to be very temporary, to as low as 86-88 (certainly will push up the PMs to the price points you mention). Very abrupt movement in the opposite direction at any hint of a liquidity crisis and another recession (wrong on dates clearly but my position remains unchanged, perhaps even more entrenched) and the dollar index to shoot up even more rapidly than 2008/2009. Personally I can see approaching the 80's highs in the dollar index so I have budgeted out to 125 ish as being entirely possible. Net effect given commodities priced in dollars = Gold down below 1000 USD, as low as $700, silver sub $12, oil sub $20 etc. = buy of the century for commodities if you can be patient! Treasuries will have once last boost (TLT to $150+) so a good hedge if you can time and I do hold them. I have made my own assumptions as to how the Fed/ECB/BoE will react in any future downturn and my money is firmly on a truly gigantic reflation (i.e. Fed printing $8 trillion+) with a shorter term deflationary bust in the immediate aftermath before the monstrous amount of stimulus goes to work. The winners will pick the stocks where this money goes. The consumer cycle from the 80s built on ever increasing debt levels relative to GDP is dead (Corbynistas may recognise this), private sector debt is plateauing at record highs, even a slight push up by 10% or so is not possible without repeating 08/09. I see whole industries, namely those consumer faced non-essentials, and those industries to which have benefited from 40 years of disinflation (consistently lower inflation and lower interest rates) as therefore uninvestable. So that makes heavy industrial, commodities, semi-conductors, transports, energy and agriculture (potash etc.) as highly investable in this future reality. Incidentally all of which benefit from the ever increasing global population and all of which can tolerate reflation most easily due to asset depreciation being less than associated price increases and the ability to pass on inflationary input costs to the end consumer. Companies with very expensive assets and low debt in these industries are the individual stock picks I'd go for once the dollar peaks out. What I don't want is bonds/fixed income. The above is the opposite of mainstream thinking but I am comfortable enough I can afford to miss out on the last hurrah in bubble markets for a couple more years to see me well over the next 20 or so before I retire. I don't plan to do a lot from here but buy and hold a few funds and individual stocks whenever TSHTF (e.g. GDX,GDXJ,SIL,URA,COPX,FCG). So basically: Short term: - Hedge in US treasuries - PMs (dollar-cost averaging month-by-month seems reasonable) - Cash Medium/Long - - Silver (most attractive), gold,platinum, lithium and their miners. Uranium from about 2025 when supply/demand becomes interesting again. - Energy - Agriculture/heavy industrial - Companies with very expensive assets (e.g. power stations that depreciate much less than the price increases) Avoiding: - Southern UK housing stock - Disinflation stocks - Bonds/fixed income - Consumer stocks That is where I am at anyway ZR, thanks for reviving the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 No-one knows what you are talking about, mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, RamNut said: No-one knows what you are talking about, mate. But I'm only on my third Abbot Ale of the night! Was specifically answering ZR with that post, I think he will understand as littered with the usual BS investment buzzwords Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 hours ago, SillyBilly said: Still around ZR and nice post! A point on cryptos, I read them as merely another manifestation of mistrust in fiat currencies and moneyed control over the financial system; a geek's equivalent of the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011 but with some interesting future consequences. The current e-currency variations are all first edition, none will last and none are of any interest now unless you like gambling. Bitcoin is merely first mover; all are provingly obselete with their block chain technology, each trading off between one another in speed, security or fairness and yet not one having all three courtesy of the underlying method and principle. Alternatives like Hashgraph are blatantly now second edition and something will emerge out of that or another iteration of the same technology. In other words, watch the space but a trip to Vegas could be as lucrative! The markets are being led by the biggest market caps marching to relentlessly more crazy P/E ratios, if you've picked individual stocks, unless your Buffett or Soros you've probably been badly beaten as most stocks are down yet indices are at record highs. It is this sort of unbalanced performance that makes me very cautious about putting money in. On PMs we're watching the same numbers ZR. Fundamentally my position is the same, I think PMs will be the best long term investment over the next 10 years or so but the journey to there in my lens is: Dollar Index continues its current trend down for now but this to be very temporary, to as low as 86-88 (certainly will push up the PMs to the price points you mention). Very abrupt movement in the opposite direction at any hint of a liquidity crisis and another recession (wrong on dates clearly but my position remains unchanged, perhaps even more entrenched) and the dollar index to shoot up even more rapidly than 2008/2009. Personally I can see approaching the 80's highs in the dollar index so I have budgeted out to 125 ish as being entirely possible. Net effect given commodities priced in dollars = Gold down below 1000 USD, as low as $700, silver sub $12, oil sub $20 etc. = buy of the century for commodities if you can be patient! Treasuries will have once last boost (TLT to $150+) so a good hedge if you can time and I do hold them. I have made my own assumptions as to how the Fed/ECB/BoE will react in any future downturn and my money is firmly on a truly gigantic reflation (i.e. Fed printing $8 trillion+) with a shorter term deflationary bust in the immediate aftermath before the monstrous amount of stimulus goes to work. The winners will pick the stocks where this money goes. The consumer cycle from the 80s built on ever increasing debt levels relative to GDP is dead (Corbynistas may recognise this), private sector debt is plateauing at record highs, even a slight push up by 10% or so is not possible without repeating 08/09. I see whole industries, namely those consumer faced non-essentials, and those industries to which have benefited from 40 years of disinflation (consistently lower inflation and lower interest rates) as therefore uninvestable. So that makes heavy industrial, commodities, semi-conductors, transports, energy and agriculture (potash etc.) as highly investable in this future reality. Incidentally all of which benefit from the ever increasing global population and all of which can tolerate reflation most easily due to asset depreciation being less than associated price increases and the ability to pass on inflationary input costs to the end consumer. Companies with very expensive assets and low debt in these industries are the individual stock picks I'd go for once the dollar peaks out. What I don't want is bonds/fixed income. The above is the opposite of mainstream thinking but I am comfortable enough I can afford to miss out on the last hurrah in bubble markets for a couple more years to see me well over the next 20 or so before I retire. I don't plan to do a lot from here but buy and hold a few funds and individual stocks whenever TSHTF (e.g. GDX,GDXJ,SIL,URA,COPX,FCG). So basically: Short term: - Hedge in US treasuries - PMs (dollar-cost averaging month-by-month seems reasonable) - Cash Medium/Long - - Silver (most attractive), gold,platinum, lithium and their miners. Uranium from about 2025 when supply/demand becomes interesting again. - Energy - Agriculture/heavy industrial - Companies with very expensive assets (e.g. power stations that depreciate much less than the price increases) Avoiding: - Southern UK housing stock - Disinflation stocks - Bonds/fixed income - Consumer stocks That is where I am at anyway ZR, thanks for reviving the thread! My final point on Cryptos being a PM bug, they are like all other forms of digitalised currency and therefore similar to fiat. Some would say, if you can’t touch it, you don’t own it! I’m not so extreme but I believe like fiat it can crash and burn as you say; for that reason as a replacement of fiat currency, I’m out. General stocks likewise I’m avoiding the big caps of Soros and Buffet ilk. Hence, not hits for me. Silver is primed, I track LSIL as an etf play but you can only ever be in it short term at present, seen it said elsewhere, some form of contango seems to go on but if timed you can do the odd churn play in bull runs. SSSIL works the reverse obviously. Don’t play them much being honest, as I have to be really sure. Meantime the best market track is the Dow/Gold ratio which still looked out of kilter last time I checked and simply not going to last for me. Forgot about Uranium’s longer term allure, can see why URU would fit well, having had my fingers singed on a couple of small caps some years ago, I’ve avoided It ever since. Anyway that’s heavy enough b.s for New Years Day and it’s game day, so 3 points and I’ll skip the Abbot but a few J.D’s will suffice later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hopefully jack daniels is going down, and abbots ale isn't coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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