GboroRam Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 1 hour ago, ketteringram said: Read the other day, some expert saying pound could go down as far as $1.20 by the end of 2017. More like the end of this week! The new Brexit pound coin is launched today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 I’m still trying to work out if this joke is right or not. If the new £1 coin is a 50p then that means what cost £1 today now costs 50p – so shouldn’t it be a £2 coin? Am I over-thinking it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jono Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 7 hours ago, GboroRam said: I think most supermarket chicken comes from Lincolnshire, home to the biggest chicken factory in Europe. Yes, mistake of mine but I have a friend in the meat trade and we really do import thousands upon thousands of tonnes of chicken from Thailand where it is a huge highly developed industry. It tends to supply the cooked chilled market and the makers of pies and all sorts. My mate is a southerner but he told me that Birds are one of the few that demand British sourced and produced meat products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 FTSE 100 P/E ratio has completely broke out. There is a time you'd look at that and be on the phone to your broker immediately to put the sell orders in. Worth considering. Supposedly an interest rate hike is odds on in December in America, typically you'd think that would also strengthen USD relative to Sterling and therefore give some reprieve to the FTSE 100. However, with Sterling so badly smacked down after the referendum and the overall uncertainty around Brexit, a passing comment from a cabinet member or the BoE is ironically a lot more significant than a quarter point hike over the pond. Dow @ P/E 31, S&P @ P/E 24.2, Nasdaq @ P/E 23.5. Overall mean for the American markets around 15-16, median around 14-15. Stock markets overvalued by every historic measure. House prices sky high the world over. Bond prices sky high the world over. Yields globally still edging downwards (scarcely possible to even imagine this 10 years ago). This is a massive asset bubble. The interesting thing is most people (because of how bad the economy has been) don't recognise we are in one, a clear sign of how pervasive low interest rates and money printing has been in the detaching of the real economy (which the working class are in step with) to the fantasy economy (which the wealthy middle class and 1% feed from). Difficult to ignore politics at the moment - I am absolutely convinced that the rise of populism is 100% connected to the politicians not reforming the monetary system post 08/09. The media, the politicians, the bankers, metropolitan "elites" (basically areas like Richmond Park where they have never had it so good) - they all have literally no idea how badly living standards are eroding across Europe (I couldn't believe the unemployment figures of Italian youths - a wasted generation). And therefore they can't understand why everyone else is so angry. The status quo is going to change fast unless monetary policy reverses IMO. The two are intrinsically linked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 20 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: I am absolutely convinced that the rise of populism is 100% connected to the politicians not reforming the monetary system post 08/09. The conclusion of this article is so wishy-washy I had to get a tea-towel out, but the conclusion it draws about the rise of populism seems pretty accurate and actually goes right back to the Thatcher/Reagan era (although you are right that the 08/09 crash would have been the perfect time to reform, but by then the genie was out of the bottle) http://www.monbiot.com/2016/11/15/the-deep-history-behind-trumps-rise/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 6 hours ago, StivePesley said: The conclusion of this article is so wishy-washy I had to get a tea-towel out, but the conclusion it draws about the rise of populism seems pretty accurate and actually goes right back to the Thatcher/Reagan era (although you are right that the 08/09 crash would have been the perfect time to reform, but by then the genie was out of the bottle) http://www.monbiot.com/2016/11/15/the-deep-history-behind-trumps-rise/ Interesting link SP but I will disagree to be in keeping with form! Thatcher and Reagan were both proponents of individualism (in my opinion), while they believed in neoliberal capitalism I think it is grossly inaccurate to label either champions of corporatism (which is certainly what we have now). Corporatism isn't the American dream (whose revival was the ticket that Reagan was elected on) and it is certainly not the daughter of a successful green grocer becoming prime minster. I personally consider where we are to be a modern phenomenon, aided and abetted by globalism (in turn aided and abetted by supranational executives like the EU). I think Thatcher in particular (and I suspect Reagan but am less informed) would be highly suspicious of current developments; corporations or government holding too much power is the antithesis of the individualist capitalism I personally think that both strongly believed in. We can ofcourse debate whether they were right or wrong and I guess (as you could reasonably argue) that one led directly to the other (capitalism to corportaism) but I would say both (or any true capitalist) would be horrified at what they see today. 08/09 was a demonstration of corporate socialism, far, far removed from capitalism which observes absolutely no favouritism or sentimentalism on who it bankrupts. A brutal system, indeed, but if regulated appropiately it picks its winners and losers on merit. That is not what we have at all (and to come back to politics again), I actually think organisations like the EU are huge enablers of corporatism so I think the "left" have got in to bed with what they claim to be protecting us against. Megacorps holding so much power seems very modern to me still, though I accept some "creep" (for want of a better wor) from as long ago as the 80's has to be precursory element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Kevin Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 10/12/2016 at 14:25, GboroRam said: The new Brexit pound coin is launched today. After the Italian referendum it looks like the Euro's joining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 03/12/2016 at 18:08, SillyBilly said: Interesting link SP but I will disagree to be in keeping with form! Thatcher and Reagan were both proponents of individualism (in my opinion), while they believed in neoliberal capitalism I think it is grossly inaccurate to label either champions of corporatism (which is certainly what we have now). Corporatism isn't the American dream (whose revival was the ticket that Reagan was elected on) and it is certainly not the daughter of a successful green grocer becoming prime minster. I personally consider where we are to be a modern phenomenon, aided and abetted by globalism (in turn aided and abetted by supranational executives like the EU). I think Thatcher in particular (and I suspect Reagan but am less informed) would be highly suspicious of current developments; corporations or government holding too much power is the antithesis of the individualist capitalism I personally think that both strongly believed in. We can ofcourse debate whether they were right or wrong and I guess (as you could reasonably argue) that one led directly to the other (capitalism to corportaism) but I would say both (or any true capitalist) would be horrified at what they see today. 08/09 was a demonstration of corporate socialism, far, far removed from capitalism which observes absolutely no favouritism or sentimentalism on who it bankrupts. A brutal system, indeed, but if regulated appropiately it picks its winners and losers on merit. That is not what we have at all (and to come back to politics again), I actually think organisations like the EU are huge enablers of corporatism so I think the "left" have got in to bed with what they claim to be protecting us against. Megacorps holding so much power seems very modern to me still, though I accept some "creep" (for want of a better wor) from as long ago as the 80's has to be precursory element. A good argument as always SB You've mentioned Corporate Socialism a few times and it's a term that rings true. Plenty of examples of companies that have failed in the market place but are then given "state welfare" to keep them alive There are certainly some parallels being played out to bits of Marxist theory around State Monopoly Capitalism, where the state plays an interventionist role to protect big business from competition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 8 hours ago, StivePesley said: A good argument as always SB You've mentioned Corporate Socialism a few times and it's a term that rings true. Plenty of examples of companies that have failed in the market place but are then given "state welfare" to keep them alive There are certainly some parallels being played out to bits of Marxist theory around State Monopoly Capitalism, where the state plays an interventionist role to protect big business from competition Yes, it is a sad reality that for the situation to change it requires a scorched earth policy; that means standing idly by when a megacorp offers a government a choice between securing its survival or unleashing an economic s**tstorm (think Italian banks at the moment). The fact we're in this position is unacceptable but it requires a lot of pain to reverse it, no politician wants that on their watch. Unfortunately one of the enablers of corporatism is regulation in and of itself so the balance is fine in interventionist terms. It is often said to a Brexiteer to name one European regulation they'd wish to repeal (to earthly silence ) - it is, in fact, mightily difficult to put a cross through well-intentioned H&S, environmental laws etc. However, one also has to accept it is in the interest of big business (think pharma, aerospace, heavy industry etc.) to have a very regulated marketplace. It is their lobbyists who write the rulebook when draft texts are put out for industry consultation.This can and does create a barrier to market entry for a SME and so the market ends up being carved up between the big boys (who then invariably "consolidate" and merge). This in turn gives them even greater power to influence policymakers (or be on the receving end of state benefits). Some companies (like Nissan for example) are so important that they can effectively direct government policy on their own (the Chief Exec. of Nissan probably knows more about Brexit than Jeremy Corbyn). As such I am in favour of "regulatory breaks" for SMEs who can't keep up with the rulebook and much stronger regulation on multi-nationals (particularly in tax terms). Two-tiered system in other words, whether that could work in practice I have no idea but someone needs to come up with something workable and soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 First time today I actually found myself applauding Mark Carney. His speech in Liverpool on Capitalism and globalism was spot on, talked about the multi-nats needing to be domiciled and paying tax. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38210169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 4 hours ago, SillyBilly said: First time today I actually found myself applauding Mark Carney. His speech in Liverpool on Capitalism and globalism was spot on, talked about the multi-nats needing to be domiciled and paying tax. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38210169 Read this earlier. Its what people classed as anti-establishment, anti-capitalist, left wing mavericks, etc, etc have been saying for years. Its what the main stream media have used all their lies and spin to stop happening for decades. Here's a random quote from a politician who has voiced similar concerns to Mark Carney for many years, "It can be hard to make clear that our public services are being run down because of years of austerity and predatory privatisation, rather than overspending and government waste, but it is vital that we do" Good job he's now the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition. For now anyway, apparently Tony Blair is funding a campaign to oust Corbyn to make sure nothing changes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Monte dei Paschi now looks like its only hope is a government bail out, down 13% today, ECB refused giving it more time to raise the capital. No interest in the private markets at present. I am in favour of letting it go down and bringing forward the inevitable banking crisis (Mark II) that will ensue, whatever the consequences may be. Bailing out with taxpayer money is state sponsored "too big too fail". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 A look back at 2016 and into new year, anyone else please contribute general tips and advice. Looking back on 2016, a bond market crash hasn't happened as I thought it would have by now. Yields are going lower as a global average (not spiking with loss of confidence) with negative yields on sovereign debt becoming an accepted "norm". I personally still wouldn't touch bonds as buying 30-40 highs with no to little yield doesn't strike me as an investment that has legs on a medium term basis. Unless experienced I would stay away from corporate bonds too, so much debt has been sanctioned at low interest rates in a low return environment, if interest rates did reverse, a lot of companies will be caught wrong-footed. I guess nobody expects interest rates to rise but the market has a habit of turning a consensus on its head at the drop of a hat! FTSE 100/FTSE 250 are (just) off their respective 2015 highs so other than dividend returns nothing much has happened besides the usual swings. FTSE 250 (or 350) is a looking the riskier bet to me for 2017 - this will be hit the hardest on any forthcoming Brexit uncertainty, these are businesses deriving most of their income in the UK and who for whom a weaker pound is negative overall for the index (net importers). The FTSE 100 is an odd one as a resurgent USD and weaker pound can prop it up even when earnings are actually decreasing or at best, stabilising. In short, if cautious and if wanting to invest in UK equities I would favour FTSE 100 for now...but again know you're buying in at highs (albeit inflation adjusted these are not highs). The markets look reasonably pricey on earnings alone. Commodities have had a slight recovery but I'm still staying clear. I think the dollar rally is not done yet and that would be bad news for the miners. Precious metals had a fantastic start to the year before peaking around August. I sold out about halfway into the rally and am now targeting re-entry around $1050/ounce gold & $14/ounce silver. Much below that and supply becomes unprofitable for all but the lowest cost producers so I'd be comfortable accumulating at or below those prices for an extended period of time. Dollar strength obviously works against gold and silver too. Of note should be the fact that this business cycle is now an old man and the UK has NEVER gone longer than 9 years in between recessions, we're approaching that (last recession was Q4 2009). Those who don't believe central banks are omnipotent in preventing the "bust" of capitalism's inherent "boom and bust" nature (by dropping interest rates to the floor and printing money) then that should be a confirmation to err on the side of caution in investment terms this far in (my opinion only). The Lifetime ISA is available as of April 2017 (18-40 year olds only). Anyone thinking of starting up a HTB (help-to-buy) ISA should wait until this one comes out as the former becomes effectively less attractive. Speak to your ISA provider to see if you can convert into a Lifetime ISA (I believe this should be possible in most cases). 25% government contribution on payments in (max £1000/year gov contr.). A good supplementary savings vehicle to a pension (take note you will be penalised on withdrawals unless for a house purchase or after you turn 60). You can use it as a cash ISA or a Stocks & Shares ISA. Given the investment timeline, I'd recommend some dividend stocks or passive market trackers, you can forget about these then and take a look when you're 60 or ready to settle down! ISA limit goes up to £20k per annum from April 2017. The personal tax allowance is going up in April (from £11k to £11.5k). Remember if you are married and you or your partner are a low income earner (less than £11.5k) then you can transfer any "unused" allowance up to a value of £1100 to the higher earning spouse to reduce their tax bill. This could pay for a season ticket so not to be scoffed at. It is easy to do so no excuses! 40p tax payers will see earnings threshold raised to £45k which is a considerable tick up. This naturally means for basic rate (20p) payers all earnings over £11.5k and up to £45k (£33500 max) is taxable at the basic rate. For those of you who do salary sacrifice, be cheeky at your pay review and ask for your employers' national insurance contribution (13.8% saving accrued to them) on top, failing that agree to share the proceeds 50:50). On a global level, continue to watch China. They are on a debt binge the pace of which the world has never seen before, not even close. There is no precedent for that not ending badly. China's trillion dollar reserves will be eviscerated very quickly if the State attempts (which it will do) to reverse the deleveraging process (and to prop up the Yuan as capital flees). Where China goes the world will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 @SillyBilly - do you know much about this? http://www.businessinsider.com/the-global-shipping-meltdown-is-crushing-german-banks-2017-2?IR=T A couple of years ago I had someone giving me the hard sell on shipping containers as an investment. It was only the pre-requisite of having a US bank account that stopped me seriously considering it. From reading this article it sounds like I had a lucky escape. And also that German banks are deeper in the brown stuff than they might want to let on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 @SillyBilly I do the salary sacrifice thing, 25% at the moment, and then they add 2.5% :(. I tried asking for the NI employers contribution saving, and was simply told, No. Oh well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, StivePesley said: @SillyBilly - do you know much about this? http://www.businessinsider.com/the-global-shipping-meltdown-is-crushing-german-banks-2017-2?IR=T A couple of years ago I had someone giving me the hard sell on shipping containers as an investment. It was only the pre-requisite of having a US bank account that stopped me seriously considering it. From reading this article it sounds like I had a lucky escape. And also that German banks are deeper in the brown stuff than they might want to let on? Yes but I reckon rather insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Generally "NPLs" (non-performing loans) are very low in Germany, amongst the lowest in Europe (not much more than 2%). Shipping was killed by the increase in capacity that was already committed to pre-recession (you don't stop building a container ship halfway through), when that came online with poorer global growth it has been about the hardest hit industry. Apologies I can't find an up-to-date chart but here is a good enough indicator (ignore scale, that is 7 years old) of Germany's real problem: Throw Italy in now to give us the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain). So, who is the backstop to the PIIGS? Germany. Italy is the much bigger problem now. Germany's exposure to Italy is 3 times the United Kingdom's (France has 6 times our exposure!). Basically the French and Germans are balls deep in junk eurozone debt (or certainly the sort of debt you don't want to be holding when a recession arrives). Hence their commitment to the project, they simply cannot afford for it to fail. Ofcouse we are not sitting pretty but our exposure to the eurozone is mostly concentrated in Ireland. Ireland has been the stand out performer of the last few years and is the fast growing member of the Eurozone (7.8% last year!). The Irish are also making headway into their national debt which is reassuring to us. The cost of another eurozone crisis will cripple the Germans, it is that simple. Remember we're looking at a 2010 chart above, 7 years later the debt is a lot bigger. Would expect German exposure to be over 1 trillion now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, ketteringram said: @SillyBilly I do the salary sacrifice thing, 25% at the moment, and then they add 2.5% :(. I tried asking for the NI employers contribution saving, and was simply told, No. Oh well! Ah well, always worth asking though, you don't get if you don't ask. I get half from my employer which took a bit of wrangling to get. That is a good chunk of salary being sacrified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: Ah well, always worth asking though, you don't get if you don't ask. I get half from my employer which took a bit of wrangling to get. That is a good chunk of salary being sacrified! Maybe, but otherwise I think vast majority of it would be getting taxed at 40%. And I live a boring simple life anyway, whether or not I was sacrificing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Two headlines from today's BBC Business page..... Jobless rate remains at 11-year low. A third of UK lives on inadequate income, says think tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRamFan Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, uttoxram75 said: Two headlines from today's BBC Business page..... Jobless rate remains at 11-year low. A third of UK lives on inadequate income, says think tank Conclusion, jobs are out there, just pay **** rates, plus more opting for gig economy jobs not realising that they are crap. One pound buys 15% less than twelve months ago, thus taking a few million on the bread line under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.