Albert Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Not to be particularly negative with nearly a quarter of the season to play, but even sitting 3rd we have to be honest and recognise that for us to make an automatic promotion place it would take someone else's failure, and it now stands as highly unlikely that it would be a result of us finishing the season in amazing form.Let's just compare this as a simple points per game situation though. As things stand this is how the top 4 looks:Leicester: 2.24Burnley: 2.00Derby: 1.79QPR: 1.82If Burnley keep going as they have for what is the vast majority of the season, we would need in excess of 2.58 points per game for the rest of the season. Let's be honest here, that isn't a small amount, and in a usual "6 game form" comparison, it would be ~15-16 points from every 18, or 5 wins and about a draw, more than 2 times over. So that's about 10 wins and a draw from our last 12. If 2nd is our aim, we really need to be hoping for Burnley and QPR to slip from here, and they may very well do so, but to put it in the probability terms from before. Chances of promotion from here:Leicester: 95.9%Burnley: 70.0%QPR: 17.9%Derby: 12.7%Our automatic hopes are on their last legs. For those wondering, if Burnley lose today:Leicester: 96.4%Burnley: 60.0%QPR: 22.7%Derby: 16.5%...and for context, if we lose our next match:Leicester: 96.5%Burnley: 73.5%QPR: 19.5%Derby: 6.5%We are two losses short of calling our automatic promotion chances over, and if we lose on Tuesday to Bolton I'd be close to calling it. Even at this point though, we should forget the automatic promotion race and the side should focus on games one at a time, seeing it as preparation for the likely playoff campaign. If this is to be our fate, let's hope we're not 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look here yes we have lost two thanks to the refs yesterday falling all there diving. But i think.preadure still on them we can still in automatic places for god sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look here yes we have lost two thanks to the refs yesterday falling all there diving. But i think.preadure still on them we can still in automatic places for god sake.We can, but those chances are diminishing fast. At the end of the day though, the playoffs are almost certain from here, and if I were offered that at the start of the season I'd have taken it gladly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look we win and then points are back to 2 points this fight is far far from over. They are not great shakes and do not rate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Never tell me the odds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look we win and then points are back to 2 points this fight is far far from over. They are not great shakes and do not rate them.nobody can argue with Alberts working outs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look we win and then points are back to 2 points this fight is far far from over. They are not great shakes and do not rate them.2 points, and them having two games in hand. From here it is clearly within their hands, and the numbers clearly show that are at a severe advantage from here. Sometimes reality has to be let out of it's cell. We now rely on them (and QPR) making mistakes, not on our ability to simply keep going as we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyB Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Personally if we don't finish second, which I don't think we will, I hope QPR finish second because I could see QPR winning the play offs if they're in them. A bit like West Ham did when they were expected to go up automatically then won in the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grantona Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I reckon Wigan will win the play-offs if they don't finish 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look stop being bloody we shall finnish 2nd i have no doubts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 I reckon Wigan will win the play-offs if they don't finish 2nd.To be as blunt as I can, they won't finish 2nd. If they pulled that miracle off, we may as well stop everyone playing the spot, declare them the eternal winners and get on with the rest of life, because that achievement would never be topped.Think about it, Burnley have 66 in 33, so 2 points per game on the dot. At this point they'd be expected to get around 92 points. Wigan would need 40 from 14 to pull that off, a mere 2.86 points per game, or 13 wins and a draw from 14 games. They are pretty much certain to not manage that. Even if we assume that Burnley will fail, they then need to beat us, QPR, Forest and Reading's points total to pull that off. That in essence is the basis of the analysis that would give them a ~2.27% chance of managing it (~ a 1 in 49 chance from here).Wigan may well make the playoffs and win it, but they almost certainly aren't going to make top 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look stop being bloody we shall finnish 2nd i have no doubts about it."http://i1.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/001/299/i-want-to-believe" alt="i-want-to-believe">We might pull it off, but it's up to Burnley failing from here, not just us doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrivateDerby Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Blackburn, Blackburn, Blaaaaackbuuuurn! Come on lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Burnley dominating the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duracell Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm going for B4's well-researched optimism over Albert's whims. All aboard the promotion bus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ***** Shackell has scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Burnley winning, play offs it is then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't think burnley will lose a game between now and the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Contain Nuts Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ****** it then. **** it then, ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ****** it then. **** it then, ****. Oh ****. Cant see it happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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