We'll be fine

[Albert]

I honestly can't believe there was another thread on this idea of us "looking over our shoulders". Let's start with this in simple terms and go from there.

We are on 45 points with 10 games to play

For those who have memories that last longer than the last match or two, you'll remember that this, on it's own, has been a safe total in 4 of the last 15 seasons. That is, we could pick up no points whatsoever from any of the remaining games, and there's still a good chance (~27%) that we'd survive anyhow. 2 points more and that jumps to 7 of the 15 (~47%) and another point takes it to 9 of the 15 (60%). You know what though, we're two points from being above the average for relegated teams, and 7 from the highest points total for a team that's been relegated in the last 15 years. This on it's own points out just how needlessly negative a post like this is. There is pretty much no way that we'd get relegated unless we fell into the worst form that we've ever had under Nigel by far. Even if we were to repeat the last ten games, we'd still get another 8 points, which is higher than the highest total that's been relegated in the last 15 years. Basically, this season would have to be some extraordinary for us to even have the chance of getting relegated, even if, and that's one mighty if, we somehow managed to get basically no points from here on.

What about our form though? Let's use ten game averages to determine 'form' in this instance, as that's really what we're talking about, those "key" last 10 games. Well, we're currently at 0.8 points per game after the Cardiff game, that's the worse from the whole season, and the first time in 45 league games that it's dropped below 1.0 points per game over 10 games. Keep in mind from the above that 0.8 points per game from here to the end of the season would almost certainly be safety, and basically anything, even 0.00 could see us safe, with anything from 0.2-0.3 and over being likely safety.

So what about our worst ever form under Nigel? Discounting averages until after 10 games (we lost the first two, then won 4 on the trot) such that the averages are of 10 game periods the worst form we've had is 0.4 points per game, or if repeated now, 49 points and still, likely survival. That should be taken as the worst of worst case scenarios, but basically shows zero faith in a size that at times this season have been in a position to consider a playoff push. A key point to remember is that we as of now have been in this position of being below 1 point per game for one game, that is, since the Cardiff game. To put this in perspective, the terrible run that we saw at the end of 2010-11 lasted 12 games with the average points per game (10 game average) below 1, whilst the worst we've seen apart from that is 6 and beyond that a couple at 3. From the other side of the coin, we've just come off a record 45 games without dipping below that point, the previous record until Nigel being 35 games, so there are certainly signs of improvement in consistency, even if the away form is a worry, but you'd expect that when we tend to win at home and draw or lose away. But enough text, here's a graph of average points per game done as a 10 game average over Nigel's management (first 10 games included) with the red dotted line showing the average points per game for relegation with the dotted purple being the playoffs and the green being promotion:

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Next up, our good friend, a reuse of the same system I used to predict how likely we were to make the playoffs which was based off data from previous seasons. This currently rates us at a 0.00% chance of the playoffs now. Disappointing, but hey, seems about right as things stand. It does however, also give us a 0.01% chance of being relegated, with odds of 47,302-7. Put bluntly, it seems very unlikely that we'll get relegated, although this is pretty obvious from the above sections anyhow. Just to reiterate the point, we could fail to get another point and still survive. Even if we replicated our worst ever form under Nigel, we'd still have enough points to be more likely than not to survive. The prediction for our final placing is currently 15th. Below is a plot showing the probability density for various positions, that is, the area under the line represents the likelihood of us finishing there. The green region represents automatic promotion, the blue area the playoffs, and the red area relegation. Carefully note how it has us having basically no chance of finishing either in the playoffs or relegation places.

"ZitJkz6" alt="ZitJkz6">

More graphs though, more graphs are always good. Below is a graph showing our points per game over the season as a whole as an average (dark blue) as well as last season (dotted light blue). It also has the possible points per game (shaded grey) and the 95% confidence interval points per game (shaded green). 95% confidence interval for the points per game is based on results this season, and works in a similar, but less refined way to the probability density in the previous graph. Basically though, it's the largest changes in points per game that are plausible. Anything more or less would fall in that 'less than 5% chance' category, although this method was blunter than the previous version. Additionally there are lines representing the points per game of relegation (red dotted) , the playoffs (purple dotted), promotion (blue dotted) and automatic promotion (green dotted):

"83T0d37" alt="83T0d37">

So yeah, basically... unless something absolutely cataclysmic happens, something well beyond anything that we've seen under Nigel happens, we're not going to end up in any real relegation danger. To bring back the previous point about the finish probability calculation from before, even finishing in the bottom 6 only rates at a 1.88% probability (313-6), the same probability that we'll finish in the top 10 at this point.

Honestly, I just think people are bored. The playoff challenge is effectively gone, even winning all our last 10 isn't a guarantee of making the playoffs at this point (although it would be very likely that we would), but that's in the same boat as losing the last 10. It just seems that upon the playoffs getting out of reach some just need something interesting to happen, or have a chance of happening. As much as we used to talk about wanting stability and just a "midtable season" shortly after the disaster of 2007-08, when we finally have it, all we want, even if not directly, is excitement of some kind of battle, positive or negative. Sometimes we just need to accept that it's extremely unlikely that anything is going to happen, and that we'll most likely right in the middle of the table, and at the end of the day, with a young squad and some development of consistency (think back to the 45 games without the points per game over 10 games ticking below 1) there is hope for the future, especially if we can retain our key players and strengthen for next season.

Keep Calm and Support the Rams, we'll be fine.

[Gary Teale]

Way to much time on your hands.

Couldn't you have added it to the other threads all about this

[EastKentRam]

Way to much time on your hands.

Couldn't you have added it to the other threads all about this

Same to anyone who bothered reading.

 

I've got too much time on my hands, and i still couldnt be f*cked to read it. 

[Gary Teale]

Same to anyone who bothered reading.

 

I've got too much time on my hands, and i still couldnt be f*cked to read it. 

Well I agree I have nothing to do and didn't bother reading it, I'm sure what it says could be said in a lot fewer words

[trekkie_ram]

I read half, you get a like for effort, and I will read it when I have more time because I like stats, but it is a bit keen....

[Scott129]

I read it all. Reassuring and thanks for the effort put in.

[blackNwhites]

Everybody knows that this is what Albert does.

[VulcanRam]

My favourite bit was the beginning of the last paragraph: "Honestly, I think people are just bored."

 

From the man who put all that together?! Do Aussies not do irony?

 

10/10 for effort though.

[ronnieronalde]

Albert, you're making a massive mistake sunshine.

 

Just post two sentences of garbage, insult someone, ideally Clough or Sammon, if you can fit both of them into the same post even better, then wrap it up nicely by swearing when there is no need for it.

 

You'd be much more popular if you "dumbed yourself down" a little bit and stopped trying to base your posts on any kind of fact.

 

What on earth were you thinking?

[DCFCfranco]

I wasn't worrying anyway.

[SuperSheep]

Read the title and you'll have basicly read it in a nut shell.

[PistoldPete]

Read the title and you'll have basicly read it in a nut shell.

 

 

Yeah but fact is that teams in bottom 3 gained on us despite last nights good result and performance

[TobyWanKenobi]

Can we have a TL;DR tagged on the end?

[Leicester Ram]

I honestly can't believe there was another thread on this idea of us "looking over our shoulders". Let's start with this in simple terms and go from there.

We are on 45 points with 10 games to play

For those who have memories that last longer than the last match or two, you'll remember that this, on it's own, has been a safe total in 4 of the last 15 seasons. That is, we could pick up no points whatsoever from any of the remaining games, and there's still a good chance (~27%) that we'd survive anyhow. 2 points more and that jumps to 7 of the 15 (~47%) and another point takes it to 9 of the 15 (60%). You know what though, we're two points from being above the average for relegated teams, and 7 from the highest points total for a team that's been relegated in the last 15 years. This on it's own points out just how needlessly negative a post like this is. There is pretty much no way that we'd get relegated unless we fell into the worst form that we've ever had under Nigel by far. Even if we were to repeat the last ten games, we'd still get another 8 points, which is higher than the highest total that's been relegated in the last 15 years. Basically, this season would have to be some extraordinary for us to even have the chance of getting relegated, even if, and that's one mighty if, we somehow managed to get basically no points from here on.

Keep Calm and Support the Rams, we'll be fine.

 

That's all you need.

[Leicester Ram]

And keep in mind that this is probably a key part of his profession, so probably only took him 45 minutes.

[eddie]

Read the title and you'll have basicly read it in a nut shell.

 

You would have the 'what' but not the 'why'.

 

I don't know about you, but I like to think that intelligent people have to have an enquiring mind. Just absorbing facts and remembering them for future regurgitation means nothing at all - absorbing the reasoning behind the facts gives one the ability to extrapolate new relationships. That means that when you are drunk, you can both baffle and amaze your friends in the pub - and at the same time, destroy your old relationships. 

 

It's probably why I'm as popular as I am - that and stinky armpits.

[SuperSheep]

You would have the 'what' but not the 'why'.

 

I don't know about you, but I like to think that intelligent people have to have an enquiring mind. Just absorbing facts and remembering them for future regurgitation means nothing at all - absorbing the reasoning behind the facts gives one the ability to extrapolate new relationships. That means that when you are drunk, you can both baffle and amaze your friends in the pub - and at the same time, destroy your old relationships. 

 

It's probably why I'm as popular as I am - that and stinky armpits.

oh i read it trust me, i was just helping out anyone that didn't have time to read it all.

[Albert]

And keep in mind that this is probably a key part of his profession, so probably only took him 45 minutes.

It took about 30 minutes, the main part of writing things like this is gathering data and analysis it, and I've had most of that done for a while, I just needed to update the data.

As for reading the whole thing, I was just writing it out like that for completeness sake. The first paragraph is basically overkill on it's own. Being on 45 points with 10 games to play should be enough for most to realise that we are in no real danger of a relegation battle.

[CumbrianRam]

Doing a good promotion job for Excel charts.

[Ambitious]

I occasionally have to throw a graph and chart together for work, this is another level... Interesting though!

And obviously I agree with you..