curb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Bris, you don't see the club through the same eyes as these people anymore, being a football fan means accepting what's Black is white and vice versa, once you see how ridiculous it all is that's it, you don't see it the same again. Arguing is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Franco, football is never that straightforward. Being a Derby fan, you should know by now having a plan is all well and good but executing that plan is the hard part. What if we find next year that the team doesn't progress as we anticipated? For me, while it's up for grabs, we should do everything in our power to get promoted. We can't afford to sit on our hands and say maybe next year. That's how you end up like Coventry. Its our aim to always improve and doing what I put is the only way we can. It may not be straight forward but its what we've got to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Ram Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I definitely think we can clinch promation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 alright yes were very poor tonight we should try and keep postive of things we scored a goal from going one behinde, and very few teams have scored against hull who are away from home, i think nigal clough needs to learn don't mendle with things when we have a winning team at home, i think going 451 at home does not work at all, i think we should have played nathern tyson with conner sammion but will huges had his first poor game all season, perhaps he still carrying that nasty bug and also his ankle could have been hurting him i know how that feels as i have ankle injury for at least nearly 5 years now. and still not right so that could have been brothering him tonight. but i still believe we can at least make the play offs and i shall not give up until mathicatle umpossable to do so only then i will face we shall not make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On current form we'll end up with around 64 points which is around 11 points off the playoffs.. Doorstep? We're midtable, it only looks close because there are a bunch of teams together in the middle.. I expect us to fluctuate between 16th and 9th all season.. We have 33 points from 23 games.. But played one extra at home.. To reach the magical 75 point mark we need 42 points from 23 games.. 11 at home and 12 away.. If we continue with our poor away record we'll only get another 12 points away from home, meaning we need 30 from 11 home games.. Now a record of 10-0-1.. Are you sure we're 'on the doorstep' of the playoffs? Can you see why I doubt we'd get there? I don't put a negative spin on anything.. I try to be as realistic as possible.. Once again, it's not negative to admit we're an average midtable NPC side and it's not negative to say it's fanciful to talk about the playoffs.. Our away record is poor, no other way of looking at it.. The last 2 times we made the playoofs we won around 11 or 12 of our away games.. Around 50%.. We only manage that for our home games, our away games it's around 28% Why do you keep saying my negative spin aren't facts? They are facts, they're not negative spin.. We've won 6/12 home games which isn't that great, we've won 3 out of 11 away games and collected only 11 points scoring only 10 goals with a -9GD.. That's poor.. It's not even average, it's poor.. I never used the word abysmal, abysmal would be 1 win or 6 or 7 points from 11 games.. Once again.. You mention being the doorstep and well positioned.. We need roughly 42 points from 23 games.. We need to win more than 50% of our remaining games, something we fail to do both home and away.. Seriously? I'd be amazed if we made the playoffs.. It would be a really good achievement.. But facts say that it's fanciful, and it doesn't mean I'm a miserable negative fecker if I say that it's highly probable that we won't make it.. You think we will make it, I don't.. OK different opinions.. But don't go saying I'm spouting rubbish when I have plenty of reason to back up my opinions whilst you use fanciful thoughts and lot's of ifs and buts.. I actually like this post. Good points, well put. You still are quite negative about it, and I never said we would or that we were likely to make the playoffs, only that it's not that unrealistic to think that it's a possibility. We also are in a good position to make a push from here, but ultimately we'll need some good form to do so. You also mention that we'd need to win half our remaining games to make the playoffs, that isn't all that different from the start of the season in any case. Most teams that make the playoffs are around the 20 wins mark or higher, we only need slightly better than playoff form to make it, but you try and make it sound as though we'd need to be on the toppest of top form to stand a chance. Overall though, you make some good points, but you should tone down the negativity a bit. I might have another look at what I did to calculate our chances of finishing top 6 (current it rates at 17% if my calculations are worth listening to). I might see if I can test it on other data and see how well it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, I've figured out a simple enough way of testing the effectiveness of the predictions. The idea was basically to use the previous seasons of the Championship as a simple test. By using the teams performances by boxing day, using the predicted probabilities of their final finishes and comparing that to their actual final finishes it was possible to extract how many standard deviations above their expected performance they achieved. By comparing this to a normal distribution to see how close the predictions were to what was actually achieved. This was done for the last 10 seasons for all teams, below is a plot of the results: q1ajx The blue points are the actual counts for each bin with a width of 0.5 standard deviations. The blue line is the normal distribution used, whilst the green is one corrected using the data. The most interesting point here is the peak at one standard deviation. That is, it seems that many teams do perform significantly better in the second half of the season (which in turn means that a large number perform worse, although they must be more spread out). The fit for the original function used is alright... not particularly good, but if anything this means that the predictions were an underestimation, rather than an overestimation. That is, the predictions were too conservative in terms of predicting how far teams would move over the course of the second half of the season. Long story short, the predicted probabilities that I calculated shouldn't be too far off, and now using the "corrected" version, taking into account the record from the Championship over the last decade the new version should be slightly more accurate. As such, for this season so far, with the above taken into account, the chance of us finishing in the stated position or higher: Top 2: 2% (395-7) Top 6: 26% (26-9) Top 10: 60% (2-3) Not Relegated: 98% (2-99) This also gives a most likely finish of 9th. Below is a plot showing the probability density per position (top half of the table on the left) with the Automatic Promotion places highlighted in green, the playoffs in blue and relegation in red: ztmgN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That's a no to promotion then eh Einstein? 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOB BIGGS Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That's a no to promotion then eh Einstein? 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' /> I never realised football had become so complicated. I've been saying a finish of about 10th all season and that was from sticking a wet finger in the air as a North Easterly blew in along the Northumberland coast. That's the proper way to predict football 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sideshowbob Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I cant believe you lot still think Derbys owners want promotion!!! The ambition of this club is to plod along in the championship with 20,000+ crowds. Thats it. The investment required to stay in the premiership is way out of their league, this is the cheaper option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philmycock Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Bris just sees facts and numbers, possession and statistics, streams and PC screens, it's his loss, I go and watch The Rams and see my mates, and have a beer, and laugh and chant and cheer and abuse the opposing fans, I've even shed a tear or 2 in the past. So what if his statistics are sometimes correct, as far as I've grasped this is a forum for diehard Derby fans to discuss the emotions of being a fan and all the excitement that brings, not a forum to rip our team apart every day judged on statistics alone and just to provoke other fans of the same club. Supporting Derby is about emotion Bris, and actually being there, so take your boring wind up attitude elsewhere, shut your laptop up and go find some real life, some real emotion...... jerking off when you get a rise out of people on a forum doesn't count! Up the Rams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I see sideshow is back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I see sideshow is back again. What! http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20060205065158/simpsons/images/b/bd/Bart-simpson-bartman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I cant believe you lot still think Derbys owners want promotion!!! The ambition of this club is to plod along in the championship with 20,000+ crowds. Thats it. The investment required to stay in the premiership is way out of their league, this is the cheaper option. hate to say it, but he may be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hate to say it, but he may be right.. Hi bro, got yer card. Didja go to this epic match then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I cant believe you lot still think Derbys owners want promotion!!! The ambition of this club is to plod along in the championship with 20,000+ crowds. Thats it. The investment required to stay in the premiership is way out of their league, this is the cheaper option. So you're telling me as businessmen, our board would rather see us in the championship rather than gaining millions in the premier league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hi bro, got yer card. Didja go to this epic match then? yes..and yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hate to say it, but he may be right.. He's not mossy mate, he's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Was it as bad as our pessimistic forum suggest? Come on bro, your neutral opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Question for sideshowbob.... who would you rather see in charge of the club ownership wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungUttoxRam Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Was it as bad as our pessimistic forum suggest? Come on bro, your neutral opinion! first poor performance at home all season, it wasn't that poor in all honesty! Knocked it about alright just the midfield seemed too flat to get anywhere near Sammon who couldn't get anything from the fat heffa Faye! But the defence needs criticism after the first goal they had many defenders back and the second poor defending all round for a simple corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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