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Bob The Badger

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Everything posted by Bob The Badger

  1. Late to the party, but I was literally crying with laughter at that one, you deserve multiple emojis sir!
  2. Im not sure if it was intentional, but you just made my point and are on your way to a gold medal.
  3. It's utterly remarkable how many people I have seen say on Twitter something like 'yeh, but if Corbyn had been PM it would have been much worse' If there was an Olympics of stupidity those people would all be vying for gold. It's like saying 'if I'd bought my lottery ticket 10 minutes later, it would have been a winner' Impossible to say your wrong, but stupid af to think you're right.
  4. True. But there are some. And by and large, they are the ones who you would predict. Ya know, countries who, for the most part, do well at penalties.
  5. If you mean can I imagine that people get pleasure out seeing others confused, angry and lashing out? Then no, not really. But, please do let me know what I'm missing.
  6. Sunk cost fallacy is rampant in business. And in Government for that matter.
  7. If I was UK PM, one of the first things I'd change (if I could, which I probably couldn't is the education system. It needs to reflect reality, at least a bit. I'm not saying certain topics aren't important, but (and I say this as a lover of both) history and geography are not more important than understanding good finances and nutrition. Similarly - and the real point of this post - I'd teach all about cognitive biases. I'd teach them about the Dunning–Kruger effect in which people with zero expertise or understanding of a situation will have so little self-awareness that they will believe they are more competent and on the money than an expert. I'd explain the availability heuristic would be important so they know that just because a piece of information is readily at hand, that doesn't mean you need to ascribe more value to it. I'd give examples of sunk cost fallacy where people keep throwing more and more money/time/energy at a thing/situation/belief even though they will never get a return. Including beliefs. Hindsight bias will be taught because people need to know that we always think things were more obvious after the fact than they were at the time. And finally I'd teach bias blind spot because kids need to understand that they will probably go through life thinking they are less biased than other people. The reality is, they're not - unless that is, they know about biases and heuristics and can challenge their own thinking. If we did teach all that we'd see message boards filled with comments like, 'well that's an interesting point. It clashes a bit with my previous assumptions, but let me go away and do some research with an open mind rather than run around like a headless chicken looking to find information that supports my belief and undermines yours.' Probably all a bit boring for most people. Me included if I'm being honest. It was a crap idea.
  8. Trump has blamed the broken system he inherited for the coronavirus crisis dozens of times on Obama, even though he dismantled the pandemic response team Obama set up after Ebola to deal with just such a future crisis. He has also said that they inherited a faulty system for testing and that was why they took so long to get up and running. The fact that it's a novel virus and as such there can't have been any test kits is irrelevant to him. As someone once said, truth is the first casualty of war. And in his mind, Trump has been at war since he won the nomination. In all honesty, I actually don't think he even knows he's lying half the time.
  9. People say that pretty much every election, that the candidates suck. They were certainly saying it with the Reps in 2016. It was also the same with the Dems in 08 when Obama ran. Similarly, there was much head shaking that the Reps could only field Romney and McCain against Obama. Both seasoned politicians with little charisma and not much chance of dragging away any Democratic voters. I think Dem supporters laughed at him, sure. But I don't think the Party did. OTOH, they did take him lightly and Clinton made some serious errors in campaigning that cost her dearly, maybe because of that. A good proportion of people didn't trust HC on both sides of the aisle, me included. She seemed like a great candidate on paper - and in fairness she did crush Trump in the popular vote by over 3 million - but in reality she was about the only lleading Dem who could have lost to Trump.
  10. Yep, pretty much just that. 8 years of constant association to a many they love will do that. Who would have been better? In terms of beating Trump as opposed to policy, then nobody with that recurring caveat that he keeps it together.
  11. Yep. He senior economic advisor strongly suggested he didn't impose tariffs but he did anyway. The guy was gone a week or so later. Trump came out and said, contrary to the thinking of every economist in the world, that 'trade wars are easy to in' His supporters genuinely believe that they are taking money of China with the tariffs because that is what he's told them Er, except all the soy farmers who are living on subsidies or have closed down because their China market evaporated of course.
  12. The answer to that is Biden, presuming he doesn't start stumbling over his words more. And btw, he has always had that rep, so it's not exactly new, it just *seems* like it be be worsening. That's why the Dems swung behind him. Biden is very popular with the Black vote and they matter in winning an election...a lot. The Brown vote was behind Sanders, but that doesn't matter because they will just shift allegiance to anybody who isn't Trump. Whereas the Black vote just stay at home if they aren't engaged - which hurt Hillary. Also, Biden is working class and he will get the blue collar worker behind him in key battleground States like his home one of Pennsylvania, and Ohio and Michigan, whereas most of the others would struggle, especially Warren, Sander and Buttigieg. You clearly want to understand what's going on @Highgate and I commend you for that. I just wish everybody did. I rarely comment on UK politics other than on generalities like not caring for Johnson because I don't feel informed enough about policy and what it's like to live there anymore. However, some of the stuff being posted in this thread about the US is utterly bizarre and demonstrates a staggering lack of understanding and grasp of the facts. Such is life I guess.
  13. There are only two ways Trump wins this election. 1. If Biden's mental impairment becomes so apparent and the Dems do nothing and it scares the electorate. I think this could happen. 2. The virus (as Trump has suggested) really does go away and there is an almost end-of-war type euphoria. Trump's only saving grace was the economy and that is tanking harder than at any time in history. It doesn't matter that the virus isn't his fault, when people are out of work and businesses are closing down people blame the guy in charge. Trump's base of around 42% will never abandon him, but that doesn't come close to getting him elected. He won last time by picking up independents who wanted a change. But more importantly, he picked them up in key counties that swung important States like Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin. Michigan's unemployment rate has jumped from (I think) 4% to closer to 17%. To lose, Trump only has to lose tens of thousands of independents or Republicans, it's not even hundreds of thousands. I predicted Trump would win last time because Clinton was so unpopular with too many Dems, especially those who thought Bernie had been shafted (and he was). That hasn't happened this time. The Democratic Party is more united behind Biden than it was behind even Obama the first time. Within the Party there is zero dissention when last time they were fighting right up to the conference, and there you had Bernie supporters walking out. Bernie, and Warren for that matter, are strongly supporting Biden so the dems can get on with planning. I don't see any path for Trump other than the two I suggested and fwiw the polls don't even have it close, Biden is way out in front.
  14. So MSNBC and CNN are clearly anti-Trump and it frustrates and annoys me when they ask leading questions because it helps nobody. I said to @G STAR RAM in another answer that I get pizzed off with some on the left who aren't able to retain a sense of balance. And by that, I meant (largely) the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party and some in the media. I've personally not seen any of the main news organizations that lean left actually make stuff up, but I have seen them exaggerate or spin stories. On the flip side, Fox News, Breitbart and OAN on the right clearly make crap up. I do wish the more liberal news programs would try and take the high ground. And like the New York Times, Washington Post or independent organisations like Associate Press and Reuters, just report the facts unless it's clearly an op-ed type of show. I do read the US versions of The Guardian and The Independent and whereas the former obviously leans quite heavily to the left, the reporting seems to be honest and less sensational than CNN or MSNBC. I don't tend to read The Daily Mail or The Daily Mirror, but when I have on occasions they seem more OTT than CNN or MSNBC. But there isn't an equivalent of the Mail or Mirror over here. On a national front there is only the non-descript USA Today and I guess the New York Times, everything else is regionalised or on TV. Sooo, that's a long winded way of saying on balance it's probably similar, but I'm guessing you will see greater extremes.
  15. Going to take issue with @Highgate here because it was doing well under every measure. Trump's first three years were remarkably similar to Obama's last 3 years with Obama having the slight edge over everything except the stock market. Also, you have to take into account that Obama walked into the worst recession since the Great Depression, whereas Trump walked into a strong economy that was trending upward. The economy was going to collapse with or without the pandemic because it was artificially hiked by Trump. He did two things to avoid it taking it's *natural* course. Normally in a booming economy you have to raise interest rates to stop it overheating and inflation running rampant, but Trump was constantly pushing the Fed to lower rates even musing on Twitter whether he should fire the head. The Federal Reserve, like the Bank of England, is mean to be independent, but Trump doesn't care for things like that. So we had crazy low interest rates in a booming economy, something that is almost unprecedented. Then (or rather before to be accurate) he gave huge corporate tax breaks out under the guise of reducing the tax debt on individuals and families. He did do that latter, but something like 90% of the benefit went to the wealthy and big corporations. You know, the people and businesses who vote and give money to the Republican Party. By doing this he exploded the national debt, something he said he'd not do and something that is anathema to old school conservatives.
  16. @Highgate - with regard to national debt, you're right, every single President has increased it. HOWEVER, Trump campaigned on reducing profligate spending and he ridiculed Obama again and again, and yes, again for overspending on things like welfare and the environment. Not really surprising for the Hypocrite in Chief. He also ridiculed him for playing too much golf, famously saying, 'if I were President I wouldn't have time to play golf'. Around the end of his second year he'd spent more time on the golf course than Obama did in two terms.
  17. There are only two issues with that statement. 1. Biden isn't the leader of the Democratic Party. 2. He hasn't refused to debate him. Biden hasn't even won the nomination yet. There could be a brokered conference because Bernie will have a lot of delegates. And a technical point to add. Even if he does get it, that doesn't make him the leader of the opposition because there are two, Pelosi in the House and Schumer in the Senate. The Presidential nominee does not lead the Party they are representing unless they become President - and even then only nominally as the head of the Executive Branch. You're presuming the system over here is like the UK and it isn't. As for debating Trump, there are two factors. 1. It's protocol in times of national emergency to (as much as possible) stay in the background as a Presidential nominee - which Biden is doing. 2. Debates NEVER start before October anyway. Other than that, you nailed it! And fwiw, like many I think Biden has a serious mental decline problem and it worries me...a lot. I wonder if the reason he allowed Sanders to keep his delegates is so that there will be a brokered conference and somebody else can step in closer the time. Having said that, I've not heard that idea floated so maybe it's pie in the sky. PS. Biden never refused to debate Sanders either. In fact, he debated him several times. It's just that when they got down to just two delegates everything got shut down.
  18. One of the things that drives me nuts about the left, and I'm clearly on the left, is the inability of many not to catastrophize everything. To be incapable or unwilling to take a step back from time to time and say, 'is this really that bad?' I can only speak for the US, but the uproar over here was twofold. 1. You're giving a place on the world stage and an element of legitimacy to a brutal, murderous dictator. 2. He cannot be trusted, he (and previously his father) have made promises many times and always broken them. The first point is subjective, but the second point has happened because he's already started testing again. With Iran it's far more complicated. But you're right, the media/left were screaming he'd get us in to a war and it's not happened. However, the Middle East is crazy complex. We *won* the Iraq war and toppled Saddam, but the net result was we created ISIS. Jimmy Carter was asked recently why China was able to so quickly catch up the US from an economic standpoint. Carter said something like '$4 trillion dollars. That is what we have spent on overseas wars in the last 40 years. China have spent zero dollars' Anyway, we just don't know whether Trump's decision to order the assassination was a good or bad thing yet. Who knows about the NHS. Again it's very early and since Boris was elected Trump has had an impeachment and pandemic to deal with. I have no clue if that will happen, but anybody foolish to think it *couldn't* is being very naive. I don't like Boris. I think he's inherently dishonest and self serving, but he's no Trump. I didn't like Thatcher, but she was a brilliant politician. Boris isn't close to her, but he's pretty smart. At least smart enough to not have allowed his ego to push through legislation that was contrary to what he campaigned on. And certainly smart enough to take advice (even if some of it is highly dubious) and not constantly allow his ego to get in the way of every decision. Trump's nothing like Johnson, nothing at all. There are so many things he has done over here that I doubt you know about that defy belief apart from constantly being caught up in his own lies. I'll give you two. This never even made the MSM over here because it's only pets, so who cares? Along with rolling back all Obama's work on creating clean air and water he also signed an executive order in his first week that allowed pet food companies to start putting back known carcinogens into the production process, because it saved money. A little thing, but an example of the man's character. The second one is the wall. I read a book a year or so ago on the Mexican cartels. It was the follow up to Narcos by the same author, I forget his name and the books title now, but whatever. One thing that struck me was how clever and determined these people are. The idea that a wall will stop them trafficking drugs or people is laughable. It won't even slow them down. The wall is just a symbol of his ego. He was denied funding by Congress, so rather than accepting it because it's the job of Congress to appropriate spending, he signed an emergency order. He took money from the Military, not weapons or more troops, but from housing and one other area that I forget. So they are in a real mess now, but his base love that he's building the wall, so he doesn't care. I'll end on one thing that often gets forgotten about, just in case you're still reading. He's almost certainly a sexual predator - or was. His first wife filed a lawsuit claiming rape. There was a affidavit filed with a LOT of very intimate details that was public record. It was dropped during the divorce settlement and she presumably signed a NDA because won't talk about it. On top of that, over 20 other women have come forward claiming sexual abuse and even rape. Many have very compelling stories His supporters say that they're just making these allegations up because he's the President. Well, the rumors were rampant years ago, and you can of course listen to the Access Hollywood tape where he admits it. Obama had zero allegations, as did George W Bush. Bill Clinton had (I think) 3 accusations, of having an affair, not rape or abuse, and he was impeached. And he was impeached not because he had affairs - of course that's not illegal - but because he lied about it to Congress. There's way more going on with Trump than most people who don't follow him closely can possibly imagine. None of it is good.
  19. Aaaaand the other problem with Trump is that he surrounds himself with people dumber than him or scared to not appear so. Otherwise he feels threatened. This is an actual exchange Rudy Giuliani had with Laura Ingraham yesterday on Fox. And btw, Ingraham is super right wing and a big Trump supporter. Ingraham: Michael Bloomberg is gonna handle the tracing, army of tracers in NY we learned today from [New York Gov. Andrew] Cuomo. Giuliani: That's totally ridiculous. Ingraham: The army of tracers? Giuliani: Then we should trace everybody for cancer. Ingraham: Yeah, army of tracers. Giuliani: We should trace everybody for cancer, and heart disease. And obesity. I mean, a lot of things kill you more than Covid-19. So, we should be traced for all those things. I mean life possesses a certain degree of risk. Be careful out there Rams fans don't catch cancer.
  20. No it isn't silly because of who said it, it's just silly because it's silly. But silly doesn't even explain it. It's irresponsible, ignorant and potentially dangerous. He clearly doesn't even know at this stage that the virus attacks at a cellular level and just isn't sat on the surface of the lungs waiting to be washed away. But it's hardly surprising because Trump refuses to attend the pre-briefing before he walks out on stage and instead likes to wing it. And that's because he's spent his entire life winging it and thinking he knows better than other people, even experts. It's why when he took office they had to reduce the daily security briefing from 3 or 4 pages and a couple of hours to 3 or 4 bullet points and if necessary, some pictures and about 10 minutes. And I'm not joking btw. The guy cannot focus for longer than a few seconds. He's the first President in modern times to not read books. Not a big deal if you are Swiss Tony running the local second hand dealership, but Presidents need to know poo. As George Santayana said (and yeh I looked it up because I thought it was actually Abe Lincoln), 'Those who don't learn from the past are destined to repeat it' But Trump isn't interested in the past which is why he disbanded Obama's pandemic response team. Oh, and I may have mentioned this in another post, but one guy died from taking hydroxychloroquine and his wife is critically ill after hearing Trump tout it. And I hear today (although only I heard the headlines so not sure what exactly has happened) that there have been cases in New York of people harming themselves with bleach. As I say, not sure how, or why. I'm not sure why you defend this guy mate he's an utter basket case and incredibly dangerous.
  21. Yeh they do, it's a long way off. The late night shows that includes hosts like Bill Maher, John Oliver (who is obviously English), James Corden (ditto), Steven Colbert, Seth Myers, Jimmy Kimmel, Trevor Noah and Jimmy Fallon are HUGELY popular (hence there are so many and some start after midnight) and they live and die off sarcasm. All of those guys started as stand ups or comedy writers, and they all get paid a fortune. Now if you had said 'Broadly speaking, Trump supporters don't get sarcasm', then I'd have agreed that that ties up with my experience. And I'm at a loss to explain why that is. Other than they are all thick (broad generalization, but not far off).
  22. Please pass on my handclap to Nate because he nailed it. Except maybe one thing. Brits tend to like pets and Trump doesn't. First President ever I think to not have had a pet. I think he should adopt the guy below, although press briefings may be tricky when we're not sure who has turned up. BTW, talk show host and comedian Bill Maher, famously offered $5m to Trump if he could prove that he is mum didn't have him after copulating with an orangutan. He did that as part of a monologue for his satirical show after Trump had called into question Obama's place of birth He suggested his mum may have lied (in case any of you don't know, you cannot be President if you weren't born an American, so he was trying to get Obama thrown out of office because he was doing a terrible job*) and he's really Kenyan. Trump said she needed to prove it and the birth certificate wasn't enough. Trump sued Maher but ending up dropping the case. Presumably he checked with other family members and they said, 'yes, yes you are actually half orangutan Donald, now put my bananas down, stop pooing on the rug and go be President * just kidding, it's because he was black.
  23. The good thing about toilet duck is that bend in the neck. It means you can get straight into the colon and ensure maximum coverage.
  24. Yeh but I don't see any COVID-19 so you're good to go make no bones about it.
  25. I've watched most of his rambling incoherent press conferences and if this was an aberration, then sure it could be forgiven. But in almost every one he says something outlandish or that contradticts what he said the day before. And this is the guy that bought 29 million doses of a drug that we now think not only doesn't work, but can make things worse on a hunch and against the advice of his medical team.
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