StantonRam

What I take from today's results is that as someone just said above it's now us v Rotherham for who finishes 21st & 22nd.
Let's take a look at the run in.
Currently we are 4 points ahead but they have a better GD and 2 games in hand.
We play Preston on the 20th - a win would see us pull away but a draw is more likely IMO, Rams 44 pts Roth 39
They play Boro on the 21st - I think they will lose, Rams 44pts Roth 39
We play Brum on the 24th - another draw probably, Rams 45pts Roth 39
They play Barnsley also - they may well get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 40
They play Brentford on the 27th - I think they will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 40
They play Blackburn on 1st May, they may well win this as Blackburn will be safe by then and probably half asleep, Rams 45pts Roth 43
We play Swansea the same day, I think we will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 43, still not mathematically safe
They play Luton on the 4th May, they could get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 44
So it will as I suspected come down to the LAST DAY!
They play Cardiff, they may get a point, that will put them level on points with us BUT their GD will probably still be better, which means...
All we will need is a point against an already relegated Sheffield Wednesday...
Wazza will come in for some criticism because he will opt to play an attack minded team in a 3-4-3 or similar, but it will come up trumps because we will WIN and finish with 48 points!
After which thousands of Rams fans will consult their doctors with bleeding finger ends, no fingernails left and needing urgent surgery...

What I take from today's results is that as someone just said above it's now us v Rotherham for who finishes 21st & 22nd.
Let's take a look at the run in.
Currently we are 4 points ahead but they have a better GD and 2 games in hand.
We play Preston on the 20th - a win would see us pull away but a draw is more likely IMO, Rams 44 pts Roth 39
They play Boro on the 21st - I think they will lose, Rams 44pts Roth 39
We play Brum on the 24th - another draw probably, Rams 45pts Roth 39
They play Barnsley also - they may well get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 40
They play Brentford on the 27th - I think they will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 40
They play Blackburn on 1st May, they may well win this as Blackburn will be safe by then and probably half asleep, Rams 45pts Roth 43
We play Swansea the same day, I think we will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 43, still not mathematically safe
They play Luton on the 4th May, they could get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 44
So it will as I suspected come down to the LAST DAY!
They play Cardiff, they may get a point, that will put them level on points with us BUT their GD will probably still be better, which means...
All we will need is a point against an already relegated Sheffield Wednesday...
Wazza will come in for some criticism because he will opt to play an attack minded team in a 3-4-3 or similar, but it will come up trumps because we will WIN and finish with 48 points!
After which thousands of Rams fans will consult their doctors with bleeding finger ends, no fingernails left and needing urgent surgery...

Oh dear.
So now we need 2 wins and a draw from the last 4 to reach the magic 50.
We now have to hope that:
(a) 46 or 47 points will be enough (1 win and 1 draw from 4 games is still possible I think)
(b) Rotherham fail to capitalise on the games in hand
(c) the other teams around us all draw with each other and all lose to the higher placed sides
Let's also console ourselves by reflecting on the fact that in recent years quite a few big clubs have dropped into L1, come storming back, and are now in the PL or Championship.  If that were to happen then we wouldn't be the first 'big' club to do that and probably not the last.
Maybe there'd also be a healing effect to be had from a season of (hopefully) mostly winning rather than mostly losing, with a new line up of hungry, fit, ambitious players (and a proper pre season) looking to make their mark or prove themselves, talent that we could really get behind, explore some unfamiliar places (anyone here ever been to Accrington? me neither LOL) and in some cases outnumber the home supporters.  A successful L1 campaign might then provide the springboard for a subsequent Championship to PL promotion push, in the style of Bournemouth & Sheff Utd for example.
Mel tried to buy us promotion and we got very close but in the end it didn't work.  Whatever league we end up in come August, maybe it's time to try a different way based mostly on home grown talent, of which we have an abundance, plus Wazza using his contacts to find us another Mount & another Tomori on loan, plus a few shrewd purchases.  Too often in recent years we have spent £10 million buying 5 journeymen when we should have instead spent that money on 2 proven match winners.
Adam Bolder made an interesting point last night on the radio.  Even in L1, there must be many young players out there who would jump at the chance to work with Wazza, we would just need to find them.
Footie to me is about roots and identity and loyalty.  Any fool can 'support' a team that's rich &/or successful.  We're all here because that kind of fickleness is not for us.  Once a Ram always a Ram, simple as that.
Roll on next season, and wherever we end up let's sell out all the home games and out-sing the home fans wherever we go away from home.  
Having said all that I still believe we can avoid the drop.
da da     da daaaaaaaa da da da          da daaaaaaaaa da da daaaaaaa da daaaaaaaa (Great Escape tune)...

Oh dear.
So now we need 2 wins and a draw from the last 4 to reach the magic 50.
We now have to hope that:
(a) 46 or 47 points will be enough (1 win and 1 draw from 4 games is still possible I think)
(b) Rotherham fail to capitalise on the games in hand
(c) the other teams around us all draw with each other and all lose to the higher placed sides
Let's also console ourselves by reflecting on the fact that in recent years quite a few big clubs have dropped into L1, come storming back, and are now in the PL or Championship.  If that were to happen then we wouldn't be the first 'big' club to do that and probably not the last.
Maybe there'd also be a healing effect to be had from a season of (hopefully) mostly winning rather than mostly losing, with a new line up of hungry, fit, ambitious players (and a proper pre season) looking to make their mark or prove themselves, talent that we could really get behind, explore some unfamiliar places (anyone here ever been to Accrington? me neither LOL) and in some cases outnumber the home supporters.  A successful L1 campaign might then provide the springboard for a subsequent Championship to PL promotion push, in the style of Bournemouth & Sheff Utd for example.
Mel tried to buy us promotion and we got very close but in the end it didn't work.  Whatever league we end up in come August, maybe it's time to try a different way based mostly on home grown talent, of which we have an abundance, plus Wazza using his contacts to find us another Mount & another Tomori on loan, plus a few shrewd purchases.  Too often in recent years we have spent £10 million buying 5 journeymen when we should have instead spent that money on 2 proven match winners.
Adam Bolder made an interesting point last night on the radio.  Even in L1, there must be many young players out there who would jump at the chance to work with Wazza, we would just need to find them.
Footie to me is about roots and identity and loyalty.  Any fool can 'support' a team that's rich &/or successful.  We're all here because that kind of fickleness is not for us.  Once a Ram always a Ram, simple as that.
Roll on next season, and wherever we end up let's sell out all the home games and out-sing the home fans wherever we go away from home.  
Having said all that I still believe we can avoid the drop.
da da     da daaaaaaaa da da da          da daaaaaaaaa da da daaaaaaa da daaaaaaaa (Great Escape tune)...

So, to summarise:
Every game between the bottom 8 teams is now a massive 'cup final' & a '6 pointer'.
Ours especially.
So, poo or bust, death or glory, we shall fight them on the beaches etc etc etc.
Almost all of this squad have things to play for - loan extension, academy player catching the eye, possible purchase, a contract here, a contract elsewhere.
No one wants a relegation on their CV!
I stick by my previous prediction that we will be kept sweating until the last day because our lot will probably find a way to draw 3 of the remaining games, possibly from winning positions, but then pull it out of the bag with 2 wins, one of which will be Sheff Wed.  However, we still won't be mathematically safe on goal difference until the 95th minute on the 8th May.
Time to buy an extra set of underwear.
COYR!

Had another look at the table just now.
Let's assume for a moment that Rotherham will go above us once they have played the same number of games but that Coventry will still be below us having failed to capitalise on their game in hand.
Our task then is to ensure that either Brum, Hudd or Cov take Rotherham's place in the bottom 3 and not us, with Cov being the most vulnerable I think.
Here's how we do it.
WIN 2 out of the 4 games against our rival teams in the same zone - Blackburn, Preston, Brum, Sheff Wed, I think that is doable.
DRAW one of those 4 games, also reasonable I think.
That gives us 50 points, which I think will be enough, and with 2 wins and 1 draw then even if we lose the other 2 of the 5 remaining games we still stay up.
We also need to maintain the better goal difference that we currently have relative to Brum/Hudd/Cov whatever happens just in case.
A 1-0 loss to Swansea would not see us going down, but a heavy loss might if it leaves our goal difference worse than that of those 3 other teams.
If we win only 1 of the 5 remaining games then the other 4 will need to be draws to be sure of getting the magic 50 points.  Difficult but not impossible.
I think that the Rams will pull their usual trick of putting us through hell and then pulling it out of the bag right at the end by not beating Blackburn or Preston (although draws are quite possible), not beating Swansea (although again a draw is probably on the cards), but then thumping both Brum and Sheff Wed, each by a 2 or 3 goal margin, to end the season in 18th or 19th place on goal difference with 52 points.
I used to sell crystal balls for a living, but I couldn't see any future in it...

Squeaky bum time now, chaps & chapesses!
We need 10 more points from the last 8 games, my money is on us sneaking a couple of 1-0 wins and a couple of 0-0 draws from the next 6 games and then having to sweat it out on 48 points with 2 games left and with the 'relegation fodder' teams breathing down our necks until the end of the season as we cling on by our fingertips and park the bus for the last 2 games to try to squeeze out the 2 remaining points. 
Psychologically this squad looks almost broken.  Why?
The loanees have no real incentive to bust a gut as they'll be back on the bench at their parent clubs next season.
Most of the experienced players already know or suspect that their contracts won't be renewed, so why huff and puff for a club that doesn't think they're good enough?
The young home grown players show ability, guts and energy but also naivete and fragility.
Everyone knows that come August only half of these people will be here, so where is the loyalty/solidarity/teamwork going to come from for the next 6 weeks?
I think Wazza & Mac do have the vision and experience to turn things around next season but the immediate task is formidable.  All they can offer players right now is 'jam tomorrow' - "stick with us kid, and next season we'll be back in the playoffs".  That will work for the youngsters, it has worked for CKR, and hopefully it will work for Matt Clarke, but the rest?
No one wants a relegation on their CV, but if I were a loan player I wouldn't care really, and right now we are very dependent on the loan players. 
Millwall did a job on us with 3 players on the pitch that were deemed surplus to requirements here and let go.  Players leave us and then start scoring, Malone for example.  Remember Jeff Hendrick?  A bit part player with us in the Championship, by no means assured of a start, often brought on as a sub.  Now he has been a permanent fixture for two PL clubs for several seasons.  Are Dyche and Bruce stupid managers or did we not realise just what we had?
Is it that we have changed manager too often or is it that sometimes we don't maximise the potential of players while they are here?  Or both? 
I think we will get over the line, but in mathematical terms probably not until the last day of the season.
(and cue the 'Great Escape' tune...da da......da daaaaaaa da da da...........da daaaa da da daaaa da daaaaaaaaa)
 

Squeaky bum time now, chaps & chapesses!
We need 10 more points from the last 8 games, my money is on us sneaking a couple of 1-0 wins and a couple of 0-0 draws from the next 6 games and then having to sweat it out on 48 points with 2 games left and with the 'relegation fodder' teams breathing down our necks until the end of the season as we cling on by our fingertips and park the bus for the last 2 games to try to squeeze out the 2 remaining points. 
Psychologically this squad looks almost broken.  Why?
The loanees have no real incentive to bust a gut as they'll be back on the bench at their parent clubs next season.
Most of the experienced players already know or suspect that their contracts won't be renewed, so why huff and puff for a club that doesn't think they're good enough?
The young home grown players show ability, guts and energy but also naivete and fragility.
Everyone knows that come August only half of these people will be here, so where is the loyalty/solidarity/teamwork going to come from for the next 6 weeks?
I think Wazza & Mac do have the vision and experience to turn things around next season but the immediate task is formidable.  All they can offer players right now is 'jam tomorrow' - "stick with us kid, and next season we'll be back in the playoffs".  That will work for the youngsters, it has worked for CKR, and hopefully it will work for Matt Clarke, but the rest?
No one wants a relegation on their CV, but if I were a loan player I wouldn't care really, and right now we are very dependent on the loan players. 
Millwall did a job on us with 3 players on the pitch that were deemed surplus to requirements here and let go.  Players leave us and then start scoring, Malone for example.  Remember Jeff Hendrick?  A bit part player with us in the Championship, by no means assured of a start, often brought on as a sub.  Now he has been a permanent fixture for two PL clubs for several seasons.  Are Dyche and Bruce stupid managers or did we not realise just what we had?
Is it that we have changed manager too often or is it that sometimes we don't maximise the potential of players while they are here?  Or both? 
I think we will get over the line, but in mathematical terms probably not until the last day of the season.
(and cue the 'Great Escape' tune...da da......da daaaaaaa da da da...........da daaaa da da daaaa da daaaaaaaaa)
 

Mathematically no one below 15th is safe, but the 3 for the drop will probably come from the current bottom 6 including us.  I'd suggest that the odds of going down are pretty much the same as the current positions, with us being the least likely and Wycombe the most likely.  Haven't checked the odds at the bookies but wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.  Rotherham probably have better odds of survival than their position suggests due to the games in hand.
My figure of 50 points was aimed at absolute mathematical safety at the final whistle on the last day.  Like all of us I really hope that 47/48/49 will be enough, but then again it might not be.
The extent to which we now depend on others below losing is a bit scary TBH, it's got to the stage where I cheer louder when one of the other bottom 6 teams loses or concedes a goal than when we score, not that this happens often at the moment LOL.
Yesterday was a very significant result for the maths.  Now Rotherham, with 4 games in hand, know that they can overtake us with 2 wins for them and 2 defeats for us in the next 2 games.  And their goal difference is better than ours, much better in fact.  Therefore their players will really be up for a scrap in the next few weeks, let's hope that our lot are as well!
3 other teams around us have one game in hand - Hudd, Cov, Sheff W.
I do hope that Wazza and the staff have a plan to get us to the 50 points somehow, even if it involves some dubious "game management" tactics......

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.
You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!