MadAmster

10 minutes ago, simmoram1995 said:

When Collins got his 20-25 goals he was playing as a two and told to stay in the middle 

Strikers hunt in pairs was always the adage.

8 minutes ago, sage said:

Who would you pick? Fornah or Smith?Anyone would be exposed, but pace would lessen the risk.

I'd like to be a CAM playing against us.

 

 

On current form, Smith.

12 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Well when we are nowhere in site of being in the promotion race come the January transfer window. We will sell our prized young talent on the cheap, i.e. Cashin, Bird,  Sibley and Thompson. Then we will have the cash to off load Warne and his dross coaching staff. But we will be set back at least 2 or 3 seasons with no decent players and the incoming manager and his team will have to be the bees knees to get this club out of league one.

IMO, none of the 4 players you mention would bring in the amounts many fans think they will. All 4 are out of contract in the summer and will be allowed to talk to other clubs from January and negotiate moves and sign pre contract agreements which will see DCFC only get whatever compensation gets dreamt up. The players will get a higher wage offer than they would if a "proper" transfer fee was applicable and a healthier signing on fee. Thommo is out long term so probably won't be targeted by other clubs so I expect him to sign a new contract, if offered one. The others will quite likely have their agents talking to potential suitors.

14 hours ago, sage said:

It's an adventurous line up. You certainly couldn't play Hourihane in the one, he would be massively exposed.  It feels like a chasing the game, last 10 mins sort of line up. Any decent outfit/manager would pick us off very easily. 

as explained in the post you quote, Hourihane is in there because he's Captain. I was going on the premise that PW would pick him for that reason. 

7 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

???

yes that would count towards xg

In that case I haven't understood XG correctly. How exactly is it calculated? A cursory look on internet seems to point towards there being many different models in use. Does this mean that using one model gives you a different figure than using another model would? 

Do they feed video into a computer that decides on the XG or is it a human being that decides? 

As someone who worked in IT for 30 years and taught it for 13 years at schools and colleges as well as giving courses in house at companies I have a healthy distrust of algorithms/models and how they are used.

It's like with surveys. Tell the survey company you want from the survey and they will construct the questions to ensure you get that result.

Just now, Chris_Martin said:

go on then, what were those

Posh, 5, 4 of which went in

Burton 5, 3 went in

Shrews 6

Cheltenham 8

Blackpool 5, 3 of which went in

Now, other than Bolton where did we have just a penalty on target, seeing that you can remember "a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty..."?

3 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

but you criticesed hourihane for not being good enough defensively and now want to play him as a lone DM...

I was asked for an example of the line up. I gave one. On current form, my choice would be Smith but, as I said in the post, the Captaincy will see CH get the nod. Sorry I didn't add PW will..... 

1 hour ago, DCFC Kicks said:

Wouldn’t you rather play Fornah in the DM and just tell him to sit back and only defend? I feel like we’re wasting Hourihanes long shot ability, and Bird could be freed more as well. But both Bird and Hourihane have a bit of defensive qualities as well if needed.

Based on the last 2 games Fornah has been off it, hence my reticence to use him.

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

if its such a useless stat, why do most teams use it in their analysis? 

Could be an age thing. If I've understood XG correctly, then a run from halfway ending in a 25 yard blockbuster that the keeper tips over the bar doesn't count. To me it should.

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

i can remember a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty...

... and I can remember a few where we've had a lot. Snap.

1 hour ago, Kokosnuss said:

 

 

This depends on what you call a decent crack at goal.

We most certainly are not creating 6 to 8 opportunities a game where (more often than not) you'd back a player to score. Chances where you say "I can't believe he missed that!" and every replay makes it look easier and easier to have scored. There are maybe 1-3 of those in a match against a team sitting back, 3-5 against teams willing to come onto us.

We're not regularly getting the ball 20-25 yards from goal and in a central position  and testing the keeper from range (we avoid it). We're not putting players through 1 on 1 with the keeper. Most often it's a ball lifted into the box for a player to adjust their body and hit first time on a volley / half volley (while needing to get it past defenders) or a cross for a player (usually marked) to head in. 

The chances we concede are usually easier chances to score than the chances we create, whether the opposition end up hitting it on target / drawing a save or not. Of the 2 standout saves in the last match, Wildsmith's was more difficult to make. Bird's attempt to put the ball in from the byline wide of goal goal goes down as a shot on target, but it wasn't 'a decent crack'.

...but that's where XG comes in? You've posted the number of shots we had on target and the saves the keeper made as proof that we should have scored, but they had better opportunities to score than us in which they didn't hit the target. Nobody should rely on it totally without seeing the evidence before their eyes but it can't be dismissed outright.

I'm also not sure why people would say that we're missing chances because our players are crap, not giving the opposition keeper their due, but I can understand why they're giving full credit to Wildsmith for his.

 

1st half, a very good header from Nelson and 2 shots from Barks, all of which were met with good saves. Enough detail for you? There's more but I'm not going to go into every single one, every single game.

With regard to your last sentence, that's what I just don't get. How they can praise JW yet it's our players' fault when the oppo keeper does similar. They can't have it both ways....

2 hours ago, sage said:

So 4132

Could you give an example of what this would look like? Naming players

back 5 as in the past couple of games. 

The 1? Not Fornah based on the past 2 games. As he's Captain, probably Hourihane.

The 3? NML Bird Barks

The 2? One of Waggy/Wash/Collo with Sibs

The 3 plus Sibs can rotate among themselves using their heads and good communication to switch roles at sensible points in the play. 

54 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

i don't use BBC stats as they have been wrong in the past. They are also very limited and give you hardly any detail about the matches. They don't even bother with xg for example. 

You can't say the reason we're not scoring enough is due to good saves and goal line blocks. I could believe that if it were for 1 or 2 games, but we've had 15 matches this season which is a large sample size and it suggests otherwise. 

Yes i agree both keepers had good games but not sure the relevance of that in the argument

I don't bother with XG either. I watch games. I see what I see. Nowhere have I suggested it's all sweetness and light. We do have issues in that we aren't playing to player strengths, yet despite that we keep having 6 to 8 decent cracks at goal each game, forcing their keeper to earn his corn. Sibs isn't a winger. Collo needs to stay central most of the time. I'd play 2 up front, strikers hunt in pairs don't they? So far this season we've seen 352, 532, 4231, 433, 442 at various points in games.  Are we going to press and harry or fall back and wait. Bird came on at HT in the 2 in the 4231 formation at Cheltenham and was ripping them a new one. 20 minutes later we bring Conor H on, he moves to Bird's place in the 2, Bird moves to the #10 position and watches the ball flying over his head for much of the rest of the game. Not much wrong with the players we have, it's how they're being played. 

I'd play just the 1 DM. Smith or Hourihane on current form. An attacking 5 in front of the 1 DM. Give them the freedom to be fluid in their positioning. The only instruction being not to make it a 415 leaving us exposed when we lose possession. 

With regard to the keepers, it's more that when JW makes a good save it's, well... a good save. When the opposition keeper makes a good save, it's because all our players are crap. Why does one and the same situation at opposite ends of the pitch result in a totally different viewpoint? That is something I don't get.

11 hours ago, europia said:

Undeniably. However, if the team succumb to that mindset, we aren't going to win many games, unfortunately....

Who said anything about anybody succumbing? JW pulled of some very good saves at Shrews and gets applauded for it. His opposite number does the same, more often and that's our players at fault? That seems to be the mantra/vibe I'm getting from some posters on here. To me JW was our best player on the day, as was their keeper theirs.

11 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

what? i think you need to check your stats again. We had 3 attempts on goal the entire game, not more than half a dozen. Wildsmith made better saves than their keeper aswell. If our chances were that good it would be reflected in the xg stats, which yet again were an abysmal 0.5xg for the whole match. 

You say that Collins, Waggy, Washington, Barkhuizen, NML, Sibley can all score goals. So why aren't they? We don't create enough, sit back way too much, and have a completely predictable and one dimensional gameplan.

Your also saying that oppositions are just simply doing their jobs better. So basically we are getting outplayed by smaller clubs, with worse players. 

Thats all on the manager, no one else.

 

At Cheltenham we had 8 shots on target from 18 shots in total. At Shrewsbury we had 6 shots on target from 11 shots. Source BBC. Where does your 3 come from?

Why aren't we scoring more? Good saves and goal line blocks? When we do it, the keeper or the defender has done well. When the oppo does it, it's because we're crap. apparently. I prefer to credit the opposition as much as our own players in such a situation.

Their keeper did well with Nelson's header and 2 shots from Barks in the first half. More good saves 2nd half...

Wildsmith pulled off some very good saves as well. I praise the keepers in all of the above. There's the difference.

21 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Of course you can lay it at Warne's door! We played poorly with good players, they played reasonably well. The only thing in our favour was Wildsmith had a couple of saves, one a worldy, and their no9 totally free in our box twice, couldn't hit a barn door! 

We were set up to play awful football with good players, of course we will get chances.

For a good few years now, we've had difficulty dealing with the "lumped in ball". It either doesn't get cleared or only gets half cleared.

Both keepers had to make some very good and very necessary saves.

If you read the post of mine you quoted, you will see that my "Warne's door" comment was linked to "two away games on the trot where we had half a dozen or more good attempts on target and either the keeper saved well or a defender blocked it on the line. You can't lay that at PWs door."    Ergo, you can't blame PW for the opposition keeper making excellent saves or opposition defenders making goal line blocks. That is the context in which it was written. You've taken it out of context in order to push your point.

55 minutes ago, trappatoni said:

 

I'd be amazed if they are on half that as a total.   

The higher figure or the lower figure?

12 minutes ago, Gerry Daly said:

Fair play to you for going to the trouble to explain the point with some figures and a reasoned argument, but I would simply counter by by saying that we would not have to pay anything like that as a lump sum.  

You may be right. How did you reach that conclusion? Paying off a contract usually means exactly that, in full, doesn't it?

13 minutes ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

I don’t believe we couldn’t get rid of him. But, if we can’t afford to relieve him of his duties, David Clowes would need to think long and hard why he was given a 4 year contract. 

Maybe he was thinking it's time for stability and sustainability, I don't know. Maybe he'd set his heart and mind on getting PW et al in which gave PW a solid bargaining position...

2 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

Newcastle weren't that good then though, they only stayed up by about 5 points.

The size of our club, squad, fanbase, training facilities, finances, etc, etc, we should be able to impose ourselves on a game, even if its just for 20-30mins. The fact we just sit back and invite everyone to attack us is just criminal when we are the bigger club. Thats on the manager, small club mentality.

Seen the "I'm trying my best, we're trying our best" video. Also seen reports he also said "we're playing to orders". If correct, those orders need changing.

Having said that, we had half a dozen decent chances, as did they. We scored the only goal of the game and lost. If it was as bad as some are claiming we would not have had half a dozen good chances. PW said post game their keeper got their MOTM award. We did struggle with their tactics which were, mostly, lump it over midfield and hope. Our inability to clear plus our allowing players, on the few occasions they kept it on the floor, to run 40 yards with a white shirt even trying to close them down is how they got 50% shots off than us and 1 more on target than us.

It was disjointed, not good to watch and we have always struggled against that kind of team.

Up top we have players like Collo, Waggy and Wash who can all score. Sibs can put them away, as can NML and Barks... two away games on the trot where we had half a dozen or more good attempts on target and either the keeper saved well or a defender blocked it on the line. You can't lay that at PWs door. You can't slate the players for it. The opposition are simply doing their jobs well in those important moments. So many fans seem not to appreciate that.

17 minutes ago, Gerry Daly said:

Why do people like you insist on making pronouncements like this? You haven’t the faintest idea what we can afford. 

Folk don't KNOW what we can/can't afford but, when there's a business plan in place to which we have to adhere and the club was saying we can't afford transfer fees, it does seem to indicate that there's not much wriggle room in the budget. Not much wriggle room in what we may spend according to the business plan. What would paying PW and his staff off cost? We fans have no idea but if we guess at 20K a week for PW, 15K each for Barker and Hammy and 10K for Warrington, the keeper's coach, that's 60K a week which comes to £3.12M a year. Two and a half years left so 3,12 * 2.5 and you have £7.8M. Now, as I've said, I'm only guessing but even if their wages are only half the figures I've used, you're talking the best part of £4M to get rid. Even if we do have that kind of  money floating around, would we be allowed to spend it under the business plan? Again we don't know but it's not a daft thought that we probably can't spend that amount on compo for PW et al.

The poster to whom you replied was making a, not unreasonable, assumption, IMO.

Didn't fully compete 1st half. They had more chances, I feel we had the better of them. The penalty? That going over was justice as the bloke tripped himself up with no white shirt within 4 yards.... awful decision.

Much better 2nd half. Enough chances in both halves to have got at least a point, possibly more. Lacking that "bite" to put the chances away.

Hourihane scored the winner and we lost.

Ambition? Just having been crowned Champions of England for the 3rd time in our history.

Realistically, promoted this or next season to the SBC. Consolidate and finish in the top 6 in the 3rd or 4th season there, depending on when we get promoted out of L1.

The Academy producing an array of players who make the 1st team, some of whom stay, some of whom we sell on for mega bucks and buying the odd very good player. A bit like Ajax prior to the past 5 seasons where they've produced youngsters who move on too early thanks to their greedy agent and replace them with multi million pound players nobody has ever heard of, players the trainer didn't want whilst getting none of the players he had requested.

10 hours ago, europia said:

There's a lot of talk about an air of superiority or arrogance, it might be the attitude of some supporters, but I'm not so sure it applies the team. It's really more about a group of players who need have the belief and determination to ensure that their ability on field translates into results. Finding a way to get the job done against the likes of Cheltenham, as an example. Otherwise, it always ends up another 'if only' story. 

That was to whom I was referring. It might actually be that the players need a bit more confidence in their singular and collective abilities to shine in the League, especially in home games.

11 hours ago, europia said:

I realise it's stating the obvious, but come season end, the only statistics that count are points and goals scored. 

They are but we didn't have a right to beat Cheltenham just because they were having a bad run. Some people seem to dismiss the effect the opposition can have on a result. Remember THAT season. We took 4 points off Newcastle, should have been 6.