Coronavirus

[Sith Happens]

46 minutes ago, Hathersage Ram said:

With the very low death rates now attributable to COVID, what do people put this down to? We have significant people testing positive but no real pressure on numbers at all in NHS ICU units etc, as most people seem to be having no symptoms. Is the virus diminishing in its harmful effects?

 

I have read some suggestions that the virus us becoming less harmful but I just tend to believe it's the fact it's the younger population who are the ones getting the virus as they are likely not to practice social distancing 

 

[Srg]

5 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

I have read some suggestions that the virus us becoming less harmful but I just tend to believe it's the fact it's the younger population who are the ones getting the virus as they are likely not to practice social distancing 

 

Here's my amateur hour analysis.

Cases are going up, but it's due to testing going up. Yesterday we were at 1735 cases, but with a 0.9% positive rate. The positive rate has fluctuated between 0.4 and 0.9 now for a month or more, with cases trending upwards. This is telling me that we are not spiking at all.

Secondly, the number of people on ventilators in the England is down to around 30 (give or take) which suggests the research into treatment is at a very good level and most people are being treated before it gets that far.

With all that said, the next month to six weeks will tell us everything and is key. With schools going back this week and next week, and a lot of businesses also going back in some fashion at the same time, this is where a spike or second wave could occur.

If we come out of this next few weeks with that positive percentage not shooting up, then you'll see more and more normality start to return as we're now in a place where this virus is no more deadly than a lot of other viruses and infections, and the NHS is coping just fine.

So it's not time to just open everything and forget the lot just yet, but my prediction is that we will be fine over the next couple of months and then you will see more and more normality from there.

[ariotofmyown]

1 hour ago, Hathersage Ram said:

With the very low death rates now attributable to COVID, what do people put this down to? We have significant people testing positive but no real pressure on numbers at all in NHS ICU units etc, as most people seem to be having no symptoms. Is the virus diminishing in its harmful effects?

 

The virus was circulating for a couple of months when everyone was mixing as usual. If you were vulnerable and caught it, good chance that you died. A decent proportion of people been tested then were already very ill.

Now anyone can be tested, so infections look high. However the people getting infected are now likely to be younger, healthier people who aren't badly effected. They are also the ones mixing and have a higher chance of catching it.

The type of vulnerable people who died the first time round are now being much more cautious, hence deaths are way down.

There are also loads less infected people now than there was in the Spring due to the lockdown (actually infected rather than just confirmed through testing) but this will clearly rise to some extent as people start to mix again.

If we were to click our fingers and everyone go back to how things were in February time, I think we would see infections rise again massively and loads more vulnerable people die. This is presumably how we get a 2nd wave and with seasonal winter flu, there will be more pressure on NHS.

Remember when we were paranoid about someone bringing Covid into the UK from abroad and that one person could infect loads of people? Well we now have 100s or 1000s of infected people, all ready to set off a huge growth in infections if we went back to normal.

I think we are opening up again at a acceptabley slow speed and that vulnerable people will unfortunately have to be more careful for longer, perhaps until there is some sort of vaccine in place.

Perhaps the virus is getting less deadly as it replicates. Could it be even evolving to deal with lockdowns ie no point killing the host quickly as they'll never be able to pass it on?

@rammieib posted earlier that there is no evidence of this virus being passed on at schools.  I think the evidence they might be referring to here is that schools, with social distancing measures in place, don't seem to be causing spikes in infections. But it's this sort of confusion, spread in the media and on social media, that leads to people being angry about masks, or protesting against Covid restrictions in Trafalgar Square last week.

 

[ariotofmyown]

Whoops!

[rammieib]

35 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

If we didn't take March and April out of the equation and remember that we had around 50k extra deaths in that period, then it seems reasonable to assume we could have had way more excess deaths without the current behaviours being implemented.

Didn't the random testing to see who had the virus suggest about 7% of the population has had it? Those people that think everything should be back to normal see to have blanked out the weeks where 1000s of people were dying.

7% showed antibodies. Most people under the age of 35 or so don't produce antibodies. So the likelihood is far more than 7% have probably had it. My guess with nothing factual to back this up is 15-20%. (Note - T-Cells also leave a lasting immunity)

Most people will never catch this virus/be completely immune to this.

In every country in the world, deaths/hospitalizations (True factual measures) have come very quickly, spiked and dropped off, regardless of what social distancing/lockdowns have been implemented. For me, what this shows is very much that this virus has come really quickly, got the people who it was going to get and is now pretty much gone - a bit like a Tornado builds up very quickly, becomes very destructive and then disappears - but it does leave a wake of destruction in its path. Now everyone is scared of another tornado coming but the key here being this tornado arrived in a place such as the UK which doesn't actually suffer tornado's. So half of people are like "Lets get back to normal' and the other half are scared of a Tornado coming again.

So no, I'm not blanking the 40,000 excess deaths (and I agree with the actions we did back in March/April), but what I'm doing is suggesting that the way this virus has evolved and what the data is showing us NOW suggests we shouldn't be restricting life, imposing draconian measures, stopping travel, stopping hospital treatments for the 60,000 who get diagnosed with cancer every month, losing millions of jobs (potentially/likely) by stopping/restricting the economy for a virus which in only 1% of cases causes a hospitalization now. (Circa 1500 confirmed cases a day, ONS suggests around 3000 cases a day, and circa 30 hospital admissions a day now). The NHS has so much open capacity that the nurses that I have spoken to are bored but worried for other effects.

The knock on effects are just so ridiculously big now to stop the possible effects/ramifications of what are/could happen with a bigger opening up.

We have nearly 5 (4.8 to be precise) hospitals right now per one person who has Covid in hospital. That's ridiculous.

[Hathersage Ram]

12 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

The virus was circulating for a couple of months when everyone was mixing as usual. If you were vulnerable and caught it, good chance that you died. A decent proportion of people been tested then were already very ill.

Now anyone can be tested, so infections look high. However the people getting infected are now likely to be younger, healthier people who aren't badly effected. They are also the ones mixing and have a higher chance of catching it.

The type of vulnerable people who died the first time round are now being much more cautious, hence deaths are way down.

There are also loads less infected people now than there was in the Spring due to the lockdown (actually infected rather than just confirmed through testing) but this will clearly rise to some extent as people start to mix again.

If we were to click our fingers and everyone go back to how things were in February time, I think we would see infections rise again massively and loads more vulnerable people die. This is presumably how we get a 2nd wave and with seasonal winter flu, there will be more pressure on NHS.

Remember when we were paranoid about someone bringing Covid into the UK from abroad and that one person could infect loads of people? Well we now have 100s or 1000s of infected people, all ready to set off a huge growth in infections if we went back to normal.

I think we are opening up again at a acceptabley slow speed and that vulnerable people will unfortunately have to be more careful for longer, perhaps until there is some sort of vaccine in place.

Perhaps the virus is getting less deadly as it replicates. Could it be even evolving to deal with lockdowns ie no point killing the host quickly as they'll never be able to pass it on?

@rammieib posted earlier that there is no evidence of this virus being passed on at schools.  I think the evidence they might be referring to here is that schools, with social distancing measures in place, don't seem to be causing spikes in infections. But it's this sort of confusion, spread in the media and on social media, that leads to people being angry about masks, or protesting against Covid restrictions in Trafalgar Square last week.

 

Or the virus may be less virulent, as I have read and listened to lots of opinions about serious cases and deaths, but lockdown measures in my opinion don't seem to be the whole reason. But who knows, I just hope the virus is on its way out, as society and the country really can't afford to maintain such high costs.

[Mostyn6]

I had coronavirus (symptoms) in March. I was self employed, working in a cramped office, but couldn’t afford to declare that I had it/them. I was in a bad way as a diabetic. I decided, based on the information provided, that if that information was true, everyone in my office would have it too. But three weeks later, when then sent us to WFH, or furlough, nobody else has any symptom whatsoever. I haven’t trusted the government stance since. 

[ariotofmyown]

12 minutes ago, rammieib said:

7% showed antibodies. Most people under the age of 35 or so don't produce antibodies. So the likelihood is far more than 7% have probably had it. My guess with nothing factual to back this up is 15-20%. (Note - T-Cells also leave a lasting immunity)

Most people will never catch this virus/be completely immune to this.

Is that 2nd paragraph meant to be implied by the 1st? If your higher estimate of 20% is correct, wouldn't that imply that deaths would have been 5x higher if everyone in the UK had caught it? Ok, "most" people would be ok with it, but that could mean 250k deaths.

 

18 minutes ago, rammieib said:

So no, I'm not blanking the 40,000 excess deaths (and I agree with the actions we did back in March/April), but what I'm doing is suggesting that the way this virus has evolved and what the data is showing us NOW suggests we shouldn't be restricting life, imposing draconian measures, stopping travel, stopping hospital treatments for the 60,000 who get diagnosed with cancer every month, losing millions of jobs (potentially/likely) by stopping/restricting the economy for a virus which in only 1% of cases causes a hospitalization now.

I'm not sure which measures you think are particularly draconian. You are free to travel to most countries, most shops and businesses have reopened, schools are back. I would hope hospitals are treating people again, in fact I know someone who is having Chemo now. Seems sensible to slowly open up large gatherings once we see the result of more recent re-openings.

The main thing impacting the economy now is people working from home meaning businesses that rely on office workers suffer. 

Companies have seen high productivity at home as well as the potential of massive savings on office space. They also don't want an outbreak in their office and lots of staff getting ill, especially if commuting on packed transport. The people making these decisions are also likely to be older and more vulnerable themselves.

There are no draconian rules stopping businesses bring people back to work. Just some understandable caution/cost savings.

[ariotofmyown]

12 minutes ago, Mostyn6 said:

I had coronavirus (symptoms) in March. I was self employed, working in a cramped office, but couldn’t afford to declare that I had it/them. I was in a bad way as a diabetic. I decided, based on the information provided, that if that information was true, everyone in my office would have it too. But three weeks later, when then sent us to WFH, or furlough, nobody else has any symptom whatsoever. I haven’t trusted the government stance since. 

Perhaps you didn't have Coronavirus. Or perhaps you did have it, but were hopefully been cautious at work not to do anything that spread it.

I always thought the main danger seemed to be that people who had no symptoms would pass it onto others without realising.

[Andicis]

4 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I always thought the main danger seemed to be that people who had no symptoms would pass it onto others without realising.

Is there any proof that actually happens? I think the WHO wasn't sure whether it was the case or not.

[ariotofmyown]

3 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Is there any proof that actually happens? I think the WHO wasn't sure whether it was the case or not.

Good question, I didn't know that was in doubt. I guess it's hard to distinguish between no symptoms and minor symptoms. 

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

In every country in the world, deaths/hospitalizations (True factual measures) have come very quickly, spiked and dropped off, regardless of what social distancing/lockdowns have been implemented. For me, what this shows is very much that this virus has come really quickly, got the people who it was going to get and is now pretty much gone - a bit like a Tornado builds up very quickly, becomes very destructive and then disappears - but it does leave a wake of destruction in its path. Now everyone is scared of another tornado coming but the key here being this tornado arrived in a place such as the UK which doesn't actually suffer tornado's. So half of people are like "Lets get back to normal' and the other half are scared of a Tornado coming again.

LOL - "you know a virus is a lot like a windy day..."

how on earth can you say "have come very quickly, spiked and dropped off, regardless of what social distancing/lockdowns have been implemented" with a straight face? The drop-offs are 100% down to lockdowns and social distancing.  We flattened the curve as intended via these measures

You appear to truly believe that the virus has disappeared and won't come back. Perhaps a better understanding of how viruses actually work is required.

 

[Wolfie20]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

 

In every country in the world, deaths/hospitalizations (True factual measures) have come very quickly, spiked and dropped off

Really? Someone should tell those living in Melbourne - now in something like the 5th or 6th week of lockdown.

[rammieib]

6 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

LOL - "you know a virus is a lot like a windy day..."

how on earth can you say "have come very quickly, spiked and dropped off, regardless of what social distancing/lockdowns have been implemented" with a straight face? The drop-offs are 100% down to lockdowns and social distancing.  We flattened the curve as intended via these measures

You appear to truly believe that the virus has disappeared and won't come back. Perhaps a better understanding of how viruses actually work is required.

 

India still growing into their peak.

Brazil - just over its peak, and about to start declining.

Some countries who completely shut up shop and stopped it early days are now suffering - Australia, Croatia etc

Other countries - such as UK, USA, France, Germany, Spain, Holland, Belgium, we tried to close it down but realised in reality our countries demographic, cultures, etc just don't really allow it. We have or are creating that herd immunity. So any of these countries I could show you their graphs on deaths, hospital admissions and you will see a big spike and huge declines on this.

Then Sweden - Which relied on common sense behaviours. They didn't impose laws or rules but people undertook voluntary social distancing, a few companies had a limited closure but everything remained OPEN - well in Sweden their curves look EXACTLY like the UK's.

So of course I can this comment - I've looked into many of these other countries. I'm not just guessing!

So did we reduce the number of deaths in April - yes we did, well, we did from those who will have died from Corona Virus. What you will see, especially next year is increases in the deaths from all the other illnesses out there. Even suicide is a higher death rate than Covid now. Cancer is the big one, but mental health implications and then a multitude of other diseases/illnesses where patients just can't get treatments and appointments either privately or through the NHS - these will lead to premature deaths or sadly unexpected deaths. Why are we not crying out for these areas right now? That is significantly more of a risk now than Covid!

[ariotofmyown]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

India still growing into their peak.

Brazil - just over its peak, and about to start declining.

Some countries who completely shut up shop and stopped it early days are now suffering - Australia, Croatia etc

Other countries - such as UK, USA, France, Germany, Spain, Holland, Belgium, we tried to close it down but realised in reality our countries demographic, cultures, etc just don't really allow it. We have or are creating that herd immunity. So any of these countries I could show you their graphs on deaths, hospital admissions and you will see a big spike and huge declines on this.

Then Sweden - Which relied on common sense behaviours. They didn't impose laws or rules but people undertook voluntary social distancing, a few companies had a limited closure but everything remained OPEN - well in Sweden their curves look EXACTLY like the UK's.

So of course I can this comment - I've looked into many of these other countries. I'm not just guessing!

So did we reduce the number of deaths in April - yes we did, well, we did from those who will have died from Corona Virus. What you will see, especially next year is increases in the deaths from all the other illnesses out there. Even suicide is a higher death rate than Covid now. Cancer is the big one, but mental health implications and then a multitude of other diseases/illnesses where patients just can't get treatments and appointments either privately or through the NHS - these will lead to premature deaths or sadly unexpected deaths. Why are we not crying out for these areas right now? That is significantly more of a risk now than Covid!

So are you saying we should have let 250k die to prevent all those other deaths you are now guaranteeing are going to happen due to lockdown? (250k based on your estimate that 20% of people were infected and the 50k excess deaths).

[ariotofmyown]

Interesting article here. Not sure how it fits in with social distancing precautions are too draconian

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/29/nation/how-an-intimate-wedding-rural-maine-led-states-largest-covid-outbreak-disaster-that-spread-hundreds-miles/

[rammieib]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

So are you saying we should have let 250k die to prevent all those other deaths you are now guaranteeing are going to happen due to lockdown? (250k based on your estimate that 20% of people were infected and the 50k excess deaths).

Where on earth did you get that from? I said I agreed with the lockdown back then - I disagree that society now has too many restrictions imposed on us now.

[rammieib]

11 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Is that 2nd paragraph meant to be implied by the 1st? If your higher estimate of 20% is correct, wouldn't that imply that deaths would have been 5x higher if everyone in the UK had caught it? Ok, "most" people would be ok with it, but that could mean 250k deaths.

 

I'm not sure which measures you think are particularly draconian. You are free to travel to most countries, most shops and businesses have reopened, schools are back. I would hope hospitals are treating people again, in fact I know someone who is having Chemo now. Seems sensible to slowly open up large gatherings once we see the result of more recent re-openings.

The main thing impacting the economy now is people working from home meaning businesses that rely on office workers suffer. 

Companies have seen high productivity at home as well as the potential of massive savings on office space. They also don't want an outbreak in their office and lots of staff getting ill, especially if commuting on packed transport. The people making these decisions are also likely to be older and more vulnerable themselves.

There are no draconian rules stopping businesses bring people back to work. Just some understandable caution/cost savings.

Sorry I missed this earlier but sensible questions.

So if we knew the true number who have caught it, circa 10 million in this country, of which 8 million never had any symptoms, I honestly think we'd be looking at this differently now. If the case numbers were 50,000 a day in April and the numbers are now 1500 a day and have been falling ever since April, I think the mentality would be different. Its not about a pro-rata, as you have done, because the evidence coming out of everywhere is that so many have had it. I saw a report recently on a middle east country where 30% had antibodies. 

The draconian rules for me are as follows;

- quarantine after overseas stay. At worst, ask people to have a compulsory test after 48 hours of return. Tourism and airline industries dead.

- masks which has impacted footfall in town centre's. It was steadily building up, then whack, masks come in and trade lowers by 5% overnight but worse, affects the growth return we were building up.

- hospitality sectors dead due to the work from home culture. We should be promoting office returns, because the value of money circulating is so vital.

- Hospitals not conducting appointments. Again, we are at roughly 50% of pre covid levels on out patient appointments 

- Schools should have fully opened back up. Thank God they are now. Now they're talking about a three month learning gap.

- Sporting crowds, especially outdoors should be returning a lot quicker now. Would be happy to see certain rules in place like banning concourse drinking and so on but I'd like to see it open.

The only thing I think that should continue to remain closed is clubs or indoor activities with big crowds.

Post November we will see such high unemployment, huge long term health effects and it'll take a long time for the economy to recover. The only real hope for me is the physiological benefits that a vaccine may bring us.

My final point is people will still continue to use common sense. I will continue to keep my social distances in check, wash my hands regularly and so on and due to that together with the herd immunity I think we have created I don't see a second wave of any real danger. That's my view anyway.

[Gone]

Over estimating the situation maybe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629

[ariotofmyown]

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

So if we knew the true number who have caught it, circa 10 million in this country, of which 8 million never had any symptoms, I honestly think we'd be looking at this differently now. If the case numbers were 50,000 a day in April and the numbers are now 1500 a day and have been falling ever since April, I think the mentality would be different. Its not about a pro-rata, as you have done, because the evidence coming out of everywhere is that so many have had it. I saw a report recently on a middle east country where 30% had antibodies. 

Not sure if that really answers my question. Random testing in the uk suggests 7% of people had the virus. Your highest estimate was that 20% actually could have got it. This produced approx 50k excess deaths which suggests 250k would have died if we had carried on regardless.

Ok, one Middle East country may have had 30% antibodies, but even that would still be producing 200kish deaths. Plus we don't know what the deaths per head are in that country or what measures they have implemented, so not a massively useful comparison.

My question to you and other who believe measures are too draconian is: are you are ok with that level of deaths?

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

The draconian rules for me are as follows;

- quarantine after overseas stay. At worst, ask people to have a compulsory test after 48 hours of return. Tourism and airline industries dead.

Rather than draconian, I would say our response to travel has been farcical. Allowing in tens of 1000s of travellers from infected countries at the start. Now telling people they still need to quarantine after negative tests. Quarantining people who have been to areas/islands of low cases in big countries.

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

masks which has impacted footfall in town centre's. It was steadily building up, then whack, masks come in and trade lowers by 5% overnight but worse, affects the growth return we were building up.

Really don't understand the big deal with masks. Maybe it gets a pain for people who want to browse for hours in clothes shops? Us and USA seem to be the main countries who have a big issue with masks. Other countries must pity us after the massive number of deaths we've had. Imagine trying to explain to a South Korean why wearing masks is a bad idea! "But you had 50k deaths right?"

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

- Hospitals not conducting appointments. Again, we are at roughly 50% of pre covid levels on out patient appointments 

I don't know much about this. My only anecdote is a colleague who was diagnosed with cancer a couple of months ago and is now having chemo.

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

- Schools should have fully opened back up. Thank God they are now. Now they're talking about a three month learning gap.

I think this is part of my first point. We were trying to avoid a continuation in the high number of deaths seen in the Spring. Opening up schools for a month or so before the Summer holidays always seemed too much risk for too little reward.

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

- Sporting crowds, especially outdoors should be returning a lot quicker now. Would be happy to see certain rules in place like banning concourse drinking and so on but I'd like to see it open.

I think this should be happening now too. Seems perfectly safe to have people spread out in stadiums if we can eat in busy restaurants indoors. I wouldn't say this has been particularly draconian. Just annoying.

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

hospitality sectors dead due to the work from home culture. We should be promoting office returns, because the value of money circulating is so vital.

Not sure what draconian rules are preventing this from happening? As I mentioned on another post, companies are continuing with it as productivity is good, office space costs are large and there is a risk of outbreaks in offices. Employees would clearly by worried about piling onto public transport, especially when people won't wear masks.