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A case for treading water


Gritty

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28 minutes ago, Gritty said:

We had to sell our stadium in 17/18 to avoid one.  And next year the stadium sale won't impact the accounts as it will be more than 3 seasons ago. 

We've just signed Wayne Rooney and paid 10mn on Bielik. 

I hope you're right.  But I think there is a chance we're in trouble next season

We spent as much as we did because of the stadium sale (although spend would have still been high)
Rooney has a net zero (or even positive) impact on P&S.
Bielik will be on low wages (comparatively) so low impact on P&S and the transfer fee may not impact things until the day he leaves the club. 

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I still cant believe that people talking about FFP think transfer fees affect our FFP result or that people think the transfer fees are spread across the term of the contract.

Surely if you're going to be telling everyone we are in FFP trouble at least do a bit of research on the figures and how FFP is calculated?

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4 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I still cant believe that people talking about FFP think transfer fees affect our FFP result or that people think the transfer fees are spread across the term of the contract.

Surely if you're going to be telling everyone we are in FFP trouble at least do a bit of research on the figures and how FFP is calculated?

My point is the wage bill is the issue.  Please re-read the original post

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5 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I still cant believe that people talking about FFP think transfer fees affect our FFP result or that people think the transfer fees are spread across the term of the contract.

Surely if you're going to be telling everyone we are in FFP trouble at least do a bit of research on the figures and how FFP is calculated?

The amortisation of the value is spread over the term of the contract,

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7 minutes ago, RamNut said:

The amortisation of the value is spread over the term of the contract,

Yes but not evenly.

So say we signed Bielek for £10m, on a 5 year contract, it's quite possible that none of that £10m is released as an expense until the last year of his contract.

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4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Yes but not evenly.

So say we signed Bielek for £10m, on a 5 year contract, it's quite possible that none of that £10m is released as an expense until the last year of his contract.

apparently Derby are fairly unique in using residual values to reduce annual amortisation. But the point is that transfer fees DO affect ffp. Just not in one year.

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11 minutes ago, RamNut said:

apparently Derby are fairly unique in using residual values to reduce annual amortisation. But the point is that transfer fees DO affect ffp. Just not in one year.

Only to the extent that a players contract is not extended or they are sold for less than what they were purchased for.

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4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Only to the extent that a players contract is not extended or they are sold for less than what they were purchased for.

Which happens a lot actually....

Blackman, Butterfield, Johnson, Shackell etc

Maybe Bielik will be different and we'll sell him at a large profit. 

Anyhow, my main point is that wages are 130% of income (accept Bielik fee may be not an issue in short term but his wages will and I'm doubtful they are low).  That's the real pressure on ffp. I'm ignoring Rooney. I'm personally sceptical he's paying for himself in sponsorship but it is conceivable

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14 minutes ago, Gritty said:

Which happens a lot actually....

Blackman, Butterfield, Johnson, Shackell etc

Maybe Bielik will be different and we'll sell him at a large profit. 

Anyhow, my main point is that wages are 130% of income (accept Bielik fee may be not an issue in short term but his wages will and I'm doubtful they are low).  That's the real pressure on ffp. I'm ignoring Rooney. I'm personally sceptical he's paying for himself in sponsorship but it is conceivable

Wages WERE 130% of income.

With Blackman, Butterfield, Johnson, Olsson, Pearce and Vydra having all departed since the last accounts, I would expect to see some sort of reduction in the next published accounts.

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25 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Only to the extent that a players contract is not extended or they are sold for less than what they were purchased for.

Yes but we can't assume that residual value = 100%.

It may be that half gets written off over the term, and half is a big lump at the end?

i'd like to see us recover some dosh on jozefzoon, malone, and Lawrence whilst they are still in contract. 

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1 minute ago, RamNut said:

Yes but we can't assume that residual value = 100%.

It may be that half gets written off over the term, and half is a big lump at the end?

i'd like to see us recover some dosh on jozefzoon, malone, and Lawrence whilst they are still in contract. 

We can assume whatever we like, with the blessing of the auditors. (Not sure if there are any EFL guidelines on the issue).

I'd certainly hope that if we are spending £10m on a player its with the intention of them getting us to the Premier League or selling them on for a profit.

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1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

I'd certainly hope that if we are spending £10m on a player its with the intention of them getting us to the Premier League or selling them on for a profit.

Well yes, but whichever way you look at it, £10m on one player is alot for a championship club. 

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8 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I still cant believe that people talking about FFP think transfer fees affect our FFP result or that people think the transfer fees are spread across the term of the contract.

Surely if you're going to be telling everyone we are in FFP trouble at least do a bit of research on the figures and how FFP is calculated?

Technically it is true for most clubs just not Derby. Which was always a short term gain long term risk plan. 

Hence the most recent 2 seasons recording damming losses. I would expect the losses this year to be less but still high. W/o anya, thorne etc who is still there and there are still a number of high earners. 

By the end of this season the risk is reduced. You'd hope they insured bielek in some way so that unless he has a thorne style injury issue he retains at least some value and therefore isnt a massive loss. I would hesitantly say even though rumoured I don't think the fee will be that much up front/guaranteed otherwise it is an awful deal.... I would expect a number of clauses in there as otherwise he was massively overvalued for a young player who's only really shown form at league 1 level and some potential that has dwindled since arsenal signed him. 

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17 hours ago, Gritty said:

My point is that sooner or later we'll get a points deduction and relegation if we carry on the way we are.  At that point, a few years transition would seem to be better. 

We need to take a step back for a couple of years to enable us to then take 2 steps forward. 

a bit doom and gloom but you have a point.  I would add that due to parachute payments it will get harder every year to get one of the 3 spots.

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10 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Why does FFP spook clubs rather than help them .

FFP is a load of rubbish IMO. 
 

Football is worse off for it’s stringent rules. 
 

Clubs against clubs open warfare is created. 

It's not there to help clubs.

Its all part of a protectionist racket.

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