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Everything posted by Gritty

  1. So Mel's argument will be he was misled and he paid himself too much... not sure that works...
  2. The stadium sale gives us headroom for 17/18, 18/19 and 19/20. That headroom goes away next year
  3. Which happens a lot actually.... Blackman, Butterfield, Johnson, Shackell etc Maybe Bielik will be different and we'll sell him at a large profit. Anyhow, my main point is that wages are 130% of income (accept Bielik fee may be not an issue in short term but his wages will and I'm doubtful they are low). That's the real pressure on ffp. I'm ignoring Rooney. I'm personally sceptical he's paying for himself in sponsorship but it is conceivable
  4. My point is the wage bill is the issue. Please re-read the original post
  5. We had to sell our stadium in 17/18 to avoid one. And next year the stadium sale won't impact the accounts as it will be more than 3 seasons ago. We've just signed Wayne Rooney and paid 10mn on Bielik. I hope you're right. But I think there is a chance we're in trouble next season
  6. No they haven't. We're so far over ffp we had to sell the stadium to our owner to circumvent the rules. That's not well managed. We've wasted countless millions on players who've not cut the mustard. You may think my post is too apocalyptic in terms of consequences and I think that's a fair challenge. But there's no way our finances have been "brilliantly" managed. They're a mess. We aren't even close to being sustainable. We're entirely reliant on Mel writing off losses year after year. I appreciate his generosity in doing so. But let's be clear. He's bailing us out each year precisely because we're making big losses.
  7. My point is that sooner or later we'll get a points deduction and relegation if we carry on the way we are. At that point, a few years transition would seem to be better. We need to take a step back for a couple of years to enable us to then take 2 steps forward.
  8. Announced this year but it was for accounts 17/18 as they were released at end of 18/19 season
  9. It appears Derby are looking for investment. I find it odd that an investor would want to invest right now in Derby. Due to years of very well intentioned, but ultimately unsuccessful, investment to get Derby into the Premier League we are now heavily constrained by FFP. FFP works over a 3 year average. You can lose £39mn over 3 years. Let's hope we avoid a points deduction due to the stadium chicanery (and I personally think we may well get one but that's another topic). The sale of the stadium in 17/18 helped for the seasons 17/18, 18/19, 19/20 on a 3 year rolling average. From next season it won't help. In 17/18 Derby's operating loss (i.e. ignoring stadium sale) was over £30mn. And if losses in 18/19 and 19/20 are anything like that, I cannot see how on earth we won't bust the £39mn rolling 3 year FFP limit next year. Lots of fans go on about money received from Rowett and Lampard moving on etc but fundamentally this is all very small beer. The issue is that the wage bill is 130% of income. The squad size (and presumably wage bill) in 18/19 was similar to 17/18. We have cut the squad a bit this year, but just when I thought we were reigning things in we go and splurge £10mn on Bielik which means we will at best be tight on FFP next year and I can't see how we won't breach it. A sale of Bogle and maybe Marriott is inevitable I fear. So even if Mel is bought out by Qatar or Red Bull, they won't be able to invest loads next year because FFP won't let them. So what's the solution in my view? Well, we need to create room in FFP by completely 'right sizing' our cost base. That is going to require getting the wage bill drastically lower for 2-3 years to create room in FFP so that we can then have another go at investing but this time hopefully a bit more wisely with the benefit of experience. That means not buying Bieliks each year (or paying the massive loan fees for Mounts, Wilsons etc) and keeping FFP incredibly tight. It means treading water for 2-3 years and bringing the youngsters through as Cocu has started to do, finding out which are good enough and which aren't. Hopefully by the end of those 3 years some of those youngsters will have shown they are good enough for the first team and that means when we do come to invest we invest in fewer positions (i.e. can spend money on 2-3 positions not 6-7) This all requires fans to have patience and accept that for 2-3 years we may not compete at the top end of the table (we should aspire to do our best but accept it may not be possible). And if we do that there'll be loads of room in FFP to then invest properly in 2-3 years time I don;t think most fans will accept that. And I really fear we'll spend each and every season trying to juggle things, at best skirting with the FFP rules (complying with letter and not spirit) and at worst getting a heavy points reduction (which could even lead to relegation). I think we need to stop being so short termist in our outlook and look more strategically. I appreciate this is a gloomy post. Help convince me that I am wrong!
  10. Errr, I reckon any decent lawyer would destroy that argument within seconds. There will be tons of witnesses including bar staff. Plus I expect him to front up and take responsibility.
  11. I think all players out late need to front up and apologise and show genuine contrition I think that they need to go on alcohol awareness course and do a ton of charity work in this area And (those not injured) need to show that they won't hold back a single ounce of effort in every game from now on. They need to help the club and community in whatever way they can (help coach local clubs in spare time, help academy players, help in ticket office if needs be) We all make terrible mistakes in our lives. It's how we respond to them that defines who we are. Everyone deserves the chance to atone. If they do the above, they get a second chance from me.
  12. Hanson usually a sub since last Christmas (lost his place and never really got it back). He got a start last weekend but that is very unusual. When he does play it's usually right back
  13. Agree with this. I also think Zoon and Malone did pretty well.
  14. Agreed. Although fact that Shinnie behind Evans and Knight (and presumably Holmes) means I think Cocu might not fancy him. Loved Cocu stonewalling the Rooney questions at the end. Not even a playful smile. Completely deadpan. And very professional.
  15. US media saying it is end of 2020 mlsv season. So way off
  16. I think he has to sign by Thursday orv wait until January?
  17. 3-0. Dowell, Waghorn, and Mason after coming on as a sub.
  18. Gritty

    Max Lowe

    Good points re: value. I don't think we need to bring anyone else in though. Shinnie and Anya can also play left back and can provide cover until Fozzy back
  19. Gritty

    Max Lowe

    You're right! My error
  20. Gritty

    Max Lowe

    Centre back we have Keogh, Clarke, Evans, Davies plus Bielik, Wisdom, Forsyth and Huddz can (and have) all played there in their time
  21. The news on medical is from a bloke on Oxford's forum who says he knows a bloke who knows a bloke in Derby's backroom team (who knows someone in the medical team). Not the best source. I reckon he may go once Bieslik has signed.
  22. This surely spells end for Thorne. Evans, Huddz and Bielik and Bird all ahead of him
  23. The capital injections don't lower the loss. The FFP rules just allow you an FFP loss of 39 mn over 3 seasons if you make certain capital injections. You may be right on whether I'm quoting FFP loss or operating loss. Vydra went in 17/18 and was replaced in 18/19 by Marriott, Malone, Holmes, Waghorn plus wages / loan fees for Mount, Tomori and Wilson (I can't believe that left us with a lower wage bill personally although it was claimed that the expenditure was flat in terms of transfer fees in and out) Amortisation losses for Butterfield,, Johnson and Blackman all fall in 19/20 due to them leaving post 30 June and so WILL affect FFP for this year (i.e. will need to be taken account of in managing down the loss) We've tried to shift Martin, Thorne and Anya for over a year and not succeeded. I don't see any reason why we will be more successful now. Plus the squad is now thin enough that were they to go, they'd need replacing (Anya's FFP depreciation (and any for Thorne) will occur this year too if contracts run out to plan)
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