The Finance Thread

[LesterRam]

15 hours ago, ketteringram said:

All at a time of historically low rates. 

yes mate, people are taking on more debt due to the historical low rates, the problem will magnify when the BoE increases the base rate, if it can !!

[SillyBilly]

Only game in town is debt, we've established that much. Just delaying and delaying the inevitable by increasingly extraordinary measures. Since Brexit we've got:

- Interest rates cut to 0.25 per cent - that is the lowest in the BoE's 322-year history. That to me suggests we've not been in as severe a demand/debt crisis for at least 300 years...we're talking cumulative debt here...sum of public, private, household & corporate.

- £60bn more QE - taking the total stock to £435bn. Stock market will feed off this free money...you invest in stock markets then you're gamble is less to do with company performance but rather your confidence in the continuation of the Central Banks keeping the party going and the plates spinning. Shows how broken the whole thing is when the CB's dictate the direction of the market.

- A new £10bn corporate-bond buying package, basically a carbon copy of what the ECB is doing. When the heroin addict's wrist vein has gone, you have to start injecting it in the arse. Same principle here, injecting liquidity into the system via a different route when the other begins to taper in effect. 

- Freeing up £150bn cheap loans for banks to stimulate lending... another hoorah on house prices?

As for Carney raising rates, can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think this tool has ever done so in his career. The fact he f**ked Canada up and that qualified him for the job here says it all. He has turned London into Vancouver with impressive pace.

[GeneralRam]

At the minute I'm loving that we've done a Brexit. In doing so has got me my first mortgage at 1.39%.

1.39% for a First Time Buyer is absolutely crazy!

[McRamFan]

13 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

he f**ked Canada

No he did not...he kept Canada out of the global recession.

He upset rich people who tried to avoid tax by creating trust funds.

Its well documented and he is highly regarding for that.

[SillyBilly]

8 hours ago, McRamFan said:

No he did not...he kept Canada out of the global recession.

He upset rich people who tried to avoid tax by creating trust funds.

Its well documented and he is highly regarding for that.

Carney is known as the dove of all doves...that doesn't come without consequence. A temporary postponement of reality perhaps, you may believe he solved it...he has clearly kicked the can down the road in my view. The more doveish the central banker the more determined they are to avoid system reform...that is my belief. Putting the monetary system, which was the problem...onto steroids, that is not a solution for me...a disaster waiting to happen more like!

FWIW Carney did the same thing every other central banker did in every other Western enonomy...they avoided system reform altogether... protected the interests of the rich/bankers... created a tidal way of debt to solve a debt crisis. I put crony capitalism at their feet.

He upset rich people...I don't see how can you say that...it is contrary to every indicator across any economy where these polcies have been played out...just owning a few assets, even just owning a high end property in any major Canadian city and your paper wealth will have increased massively. Try owning nothing and see how you will have fared from his legacy.

Central banks have nothing to do with tax.

[SillyBilly]

12 hours ago, GeneralRam said:

At the minute I'm loving that we've done a Brexit. In doing so has got me my first mortgage at 1.39%.

1.39% for a First Time Buyer is absolutely crazy!

Perhaps the biggest lie was Osborne's after all. He would have known exactly what the BoE's policy response in a Brexit scenario was going to be, just never expected to be called out on it as he wasn't going to lose.... Congrats by the way .

 

[McRamFan]

12 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

Carney is known as the dove of all doves...that doesn't come without consequence. A temporary postponement of reality perhaps, you may believe he solved it...he has clearly kicked the can down the road in my view. The more doveish the central banker the more determined they are to avoid system reform...that is my belief. Putting the monetary system, which was the problem...onto steroids, that is not a solution for me...a disaster waiting to happen more like!

FWIW Carney did the same thing every other central banker did in every other Western enonomy...they avoided system reform altogether... protected the interests of the rich/bankers... created a tidal way of debt to solve a debt crisis. I put crony capitalism at their feet.

He upset rich people...I don't see how can you say that...it is contrary to every indicator across any economy where these polcies have been played out...just owning a few assets, even just owning a high end property in any major Canadian city and your paper wealth will have increased massively. Try owning nothing and see how you will have fared from his legacy.

Central banks have nothing to do with tax.

Proof?

What I have read it seems he is one of the few that knows what he is doing.

[SillyBilly]

10 hours ago, McRamFan said:

Proof?

What I have read it seems he is one of the few that knows what he is doing.

Don't know where you have read he has anything to do with tax.

[Muskination]

On 22 August 2015 at 04:27, SillyBilly said:

So, from my vantage point, we are on the precipice of another major global financial crisis, one which could make 08/09 look like a tea party.

The signs of a global economy reaching the tipping point are becoming louder, more frequent and more severe:

* commodities have plummeted to lows not seen since 2002

* global shipping indices are dropping with negative year on year movements of up to 20%

* the oil price, as a gauge of global economic activity, is reaching lows not seen since the depth of the crisis of 2008/2009. Oil exporting nations are either collapsing (Russia/Venezuela) or burning cash reserves (Saudi, UAE) at a frightening rate.

* key exporting nations (commodity players) are in deep trouble including Australia, Canada, Brazil and much of the rest of South America

* consumer spending in the US , the key driver of US GDP, is contracting (due to peak debt) and major retail outlets are in trouble.

* the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are barely propped up by a few big players. The vast majority of publicly listed stocks in the US are in steep decline. The PPT are trying to prop the market by buying the big banks.

* the Chinese economy is in deep trouble with year on year exports as well as imports in negative.

* Chinese property prices are declining. China's shadow banking sector is highly leveraged in "over-investment" projects in property (people thought the sub-prime mortgage crash was bad in the States)

* after the RMB devaluation the global currency wars stepped up another notch; EM currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and the Turkish Lira are in free fall.

* China is now exporting deflation to importing nations such as the US and the UK. Deflation and unprecedented debt HAS to be avoided. Neither the US and UK can achieve their 2% inflation targets despite the trillions of dollars/pounds thrown at it.

* the Fed and the BoE are rudderless, if they raise rates they will strengthen the USD and GBP creating even more deflation. If they maintain interest rates or even lower rates they will have lost all credibility. After the SNB fiasco in the beginning of the year, trust in central banks will hit rock bottom and the central banking system may lose investor confidence

* EMs and developed nations are facing a mountain of debt facilitated by the Fed's cheap money policy.

 

I could be wrong but I have moved all into cash apart from holdings in PM's (first time ever) and I would seriously suggest anyone who has money invested outside of a pension wrapper looks at their risk appetite. Once this September-December period is navigated, we should have a clearer picture whether the recent turbulence is just that or the part of a systemic crash.

Invite anybody to share their thoughts on the economy/market, I seriously hope I am wrong.

 

 

Well, that didn't play out.

 

[SillyBilly]

4 hours ago, Muskination said:

Well, that didn't play out.

 

I still genuinely believe we are Muskination. I know that is a little dig at me but I have only offered my thoughts on what is going on and what I am personally doing about it. And for what it is worth I have done pretty well since I wrote that thread at a time when most people are struggling for even paltry returns. Virtually all of my moves have been documented on here as well as in private messages to members when asked. I said invest in PM stocks, I listed the two publically on here which I put a lot of my own money in (First Majestic Mining & Barrick Gold), while I am pretty cautious and banked 150% returns (declared exactly when bought and sold), others could have made 300% returns on those two. I said to get out the £ and into the $, I have been very consistent on this...20% in a year from just holding currency. I was bearish on the FTSE and said I was selling from 6700 and down. Right move for me as I had bought much lower and used the money elsewhere but I accept now it is back to 6800+, some would have been better off holding. And FWIW, althought not publically noted on here (but is on other forums where I post under the same name) I bought back into the FTSE post Brexit... because quite frankly I thought the media (principally BBC) and others with an agenda were quite clearly over-egging what I considered to be a natural stock market reaction and it'd bounce (and was even more convinced after Carney announced more QE). Picked up 3 nice divi payers for a 10-20% discount.

Reading back the original post, all of the problems seem to have got worse with more extreme monetary and accomodative policies following as a result to fend it off. Recovery in oil price slightly but most of the oil exporters are still losing money hand over fist as they need $100/barrel prices which doesn't seem likely any time soon.

I still think China is the biggie, their credit expansion is absolutely insane.

I would be interested to know your thoughts and tips..

[GboroRam]

13 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I still genuinely believe we are Muskination. I know that is a little dig at me but I have only offered my thoughts on what is going on and what I am personally doing about it. And for what it is worth I have done pretty well since I wrote that thread at a time when most people are struggling for even paltry returns. Virtually all of my moves have been documented on here as well as in private messages to members when asked. I said invest in PM stocks, I listed the two publically on here which I put a lot of my own money in (First Majestic Mining & Barrick Gold), while I am pretty cautious and banked 150% returns (declared exactly when bought and sold), others could have made 300% returns on those two. I said to get out the £ and into the $, I have been very consistent on this...20% in a year from just holding currency. I was bearish on the FTSE and said I was selling from 6700 and down. Right move for me as I had bought much lower and used the money elsewhere but I accept now it is back to 6800+, some would have been better off holding. And FWIW, althought not publically noted on here (but is on other forums where I post under the same name) I bought back into the FTSE post Brexit... because quite frankly I thought the media (principally BBC) and others with an agenda were quite clearly over-egging what I considered to be a natural stock market reaction and it'd bounce (and was even more convinced after Carney announced more QE). Picked up 3 nice divi payers for a 10-20% discount.

Reading back the original post, all of the problems seem to have got worse with more extreme monetary and accomodative policies following as a result to fend it off. Recovery in oil price slightly but most of the oil exporters are still losing money hand over fist as they need $100/barrel prices which doesn't seem likely any time soon.

I still think China is the biggie, their credit expansion is absolutely insane.

I would be interested to know your thoughts and tips..

I said put all your money into vodka. I've had a very enjoyable 12 months.

[Muskination]

Wasn't really a dig at you bro, I just read the first post and couldn't resist stating the obvious. I'm all for people putting their thoughts out there as fence sitters are dull by definition so good on you.

Thing is, there will definitely be a huge collapse but whether that's next year, in 15 years, or in 33 years it's going to happen, obviously. Probably China, maybe WW3, maybe a meteorite, maybe aliens, maybe something far less interesting than this. 

Yes, the post brexit results were as predicable as can be... everyone's looking for the large shape shifter event and that's where easy money can be made. There'll be a couple more out of Brexit and there'll be some retirements earned through it.

I'd love to wax lyrical with you re the market, futures, bonds etc but I got out of that a while ago. Too much time spent on researching bizarre miners in Tanzania with all of the variables for eg. More interested in houses these days (as opposed to property as that always sounds so w@nky). Maybe I should start a thread on that.

 

(oops edit. Apologies, forgot to quote)

[LesterRam]

10 minutes ago, Muskination said:

Wasn't really a dig at you bro, I just read the first post and couldn't resist stating the obvious. I'm all for people putting their thoughts out there as fence sitters are dull by definition so good on you.

Thing is, there will definitely be a huge collapse but whether that's next year, in 15 years, or in 33 years it's going to happen, obviously. Probably China, maybe WW3, maybe a meteorite, maybe aliens, maybe something far less interesting than this. 

Yes, the post brexit results were as predicable as can be... everyone's looking for the large shape shifter event and that's where easy money can be made. There'll be a couple more out of Brexit and there'll be some retirements earned through it.

I'd love to wax lyrical with you re the market, futures, bonds etc but I got out of that a while ago. Too much time spent on researching bizarre miners in Tanzania with all of the variables for eg. More interested in houses these days (as opposed to property as that always sounds so w@nky). Maybe I should start a thread on that.

 

(oops edit. Apologies, forgot to quote)

I would have gone in the other direction if I was you 

[Muskination]

11 minutes ago, LesterRam said:

I would have gone in the other direction if I was you 

Which direction, with the houses?

[LesterRam]

1 minute ago, Muskination said:

Which direction, with the houses?

Yep, a flat stock market is good for nothing, flat housing market? 

[Muskination]

6 minutes ago, LesterRam said:

Yep, a flat stock market is good for nothing, flat housing market? 

Fair enough. Difficult to talk about this without looking like you're having a w@nk, but I've been buying in a different country and had a go in the US.

Wouldn't mind buying a castle some day though.

:-)

Just the maintenance that would be a nightmare.

[SillyBilly]

39 minutes ago, Muskination said:

Wasn't really a dig at you bro, I just read the first post and couldn't resist stating the obvious. I'm all for people putting their thoughts out there as fence sitters are dull by definition so good on you.

Thing is, there will definitely be a huge collapse but whether that's next year, in 15 years, or in 33 years it's going to happen, obviously. Probably China, maybe WW3, maybe a meteorite, maybe aliens, maybe something far less interesting than this. 

Yes, the post brexit results were as predicable as can be... everyone's looking for the large shape shifter event and that's where easy money can be made. There'll be a couple more out of Brexit and there'll be some retirements earned through it.

I'd love to wax lyrical with you re the market, futures, bonds etc but I got out of that a while ago. Too much time spent on researching bizarre miners in Tanzania with all of the variables for eg. More interested in houses these days (as opposed to property as that always sounds so w@nky). Maybe I should start a thread on that.

 

(oops edit. Apologies, forgot to quote)

Funny you should mention South-East African miners, I lost my shirt in Baobab Resources in Tanzania when the management shafted the shareholders and went private as soon as the Chinese started sniffing around. The name Ben James still sends a shiver down my spine. Lying toad. I lost 40% of a very substantial investment. I also had a large interest in a company called Namakwa Dimaonds a few years ago, operations in Lesotho, privatised by an Ukrainian billionaire (through a company controlled by his wife if I remember correctly; a very complex and sly acquisition of shares before it suddently became clear he had a controlling stake). That was looking to be a mortgage payer just before that development (hence wanting to force the turkeys out), fortunately I made it out of that one with a very modest profit at their paltry "take it or leave it offer". Others weren't so fortunate. I don't think I would ever get involved in Africa again...too many WTF moments. Been a holder in Centamin at various points, they have a mine in Sukari which is subject to a lengthy legal battle ongoing in the Egyptian courts on concession rights, sold out in favour of increasing stake in North American PM miners. You can only take so much corruption and incompetence! I do follow miners still though. My last punt in miners/oilies was a little closer to home, near Gatwick airport, in the Horse Hill project! I was in very early on that fortunately as always followed the career of David Lenigas, a serial AIM entrepeneur, lots of money to be made and lost on his ventures, never dull though!

Re. China, I can't see how much longer their credit expansion can go on for so I personally take the view sooner rather than later!

[Muskination]

4 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Funny you should mention South-East African miners, I lost my shirt in Baobab Resources in Tanzania when the management shafted the shareholders and went private as soon as the Chinese started sniffing around. The name Ben James still sends a shiver down my spine. Lying toad. I lost 40% of a very substantial investment. I also had a large interest in a company called Namakwa Dimaonds a few years ago, operations in Lesotho, privatised by an Ukrainian billionaire (through a company controlled by his wife if I remember correctly; a very complex and sly acquisition of shares before it suddently became clear he had a controlling stake). That was looking to be a mortgage payer just before that development (hence wanting to force the turkeys out), fortunately I made it out of that one with a very modest profit at their paltry "take it or leave it offer". Others weren't so fortunate. I don't think I would ever get involved in Africa again...too many WTF moments. Been a holder in Centamin at various points, they have a mine in Sukari which is subject to a lengthy legal battle ongoing in the Egyptian courts on concession rights, sold out in favour of North American PM miners. You can only take so much corruption and incompetence! I do follow miners still though. My last punt in miners/oilies was a little closer to home, near Gatwick airport, in the Horse Hill project! I was in quite early on that as always followed the career of David Lenigas, a serial AIM entrepeneur, lots of money to be made and lost on his ventures, never dull though!

Re. China, I can't see how much longer their credit expansion can go on for so I personally take the view sooner rather than later!

Yes, what you said with floods in mines and locals uprising and being provided arms by rebel factions etc. Was doing ok in Uranium and then Fukushima happened which saw things go from 49 to 4 in a short space of time. I refused to sell due to the severity of the loss (Hell, who cares about losing the remaining 4). Funny thing is, it's taken years but they're up around 60 now. I'd stopped checking them.

Then there was my dabble in fracking...

[LesterRam]

58 minutes ago, Muskination said:

Yes, what you said with floods in mines and locals uprising and being provided arms by rebel factions etc. Was doing ok in Uranium and then Fukushima happened which saw things go from 49 to 4 in a short space of time. I refused to sell due to the severity of the loss (Hell, who cares about losing the remaining 4). Funny thing is, it's taken years but they're up around 60 now. I'd stopped checking them.

Then there was my dabble in fracking...

You like your risk, wowzers 

[Muskination]

11 minutes ago, LesterRam said:

You like your risk, wowzers 

So, I moved in to blue chip, and who'd have guessed it (or seen it coming) subliminal issues with subsidiaries which manifested in to big losses.

So that's just about me in a five/ten year nutshell. Now I'm out and in houses (except for a bit of UNX now MNS).

However it goes, certainly better than doing nothing at all. Now that is a risky strategy.