Stick your neck out, pick two.

[norwich]

As there's an Ipswich and Boro perspective, I'll add a Norwich one...

 

Put simply, right now, any of the top 6 could finish top 2. As of right now (before Boro play tonight) only 6 points separate teams 1-6 with 15 games and 45 points still to play for, i.e. a lot. 

 

I think most would agree that squad wise, Derby/Boro/Watford/Norwich are the strongest, with perhaps Norwich being the overall best on paper. Bournemouth and Ipswich are up there, in my view, due to the strength in management, as opposed to sheer quality possessed in their squad (for the record I think Brentford will implode and Wolves won't be consistent enough)...

 

Bournemouth = All round great team. With 'team' in this instance referring to the overall club, from board to manager to set up to players. Have they got the squad needed to finish off the season? 5th

 

Derby = Decent squad, Decent manager, Decent support. Got the experience of last year's campaign and two cracking loan signings who have hit the ground running. Can you nick enough points away from home? Think you'll just nick in there. 2nd

 

Boro = Best team I've seen consistent wise and the best team at defending a lead. Not quite as explosive as Norwich/Watford but as the saying goes, strikers win you games, defences wins you championships. 1st

 

Ipswich = Mick McCarthy is a great manager at this level, and although it pains me to say it for obvious reasons, he's done a cracking job there with, on paper, an average squad. Got the league's top goalscorer but an injury/suspension to Murphy could lead to pressure on other players to step up and score the goals. Can they do what's needed to finish top 2 and beat the teams in and around them? I'm not convinced. 6th

 

Watford = Best attacking side in the division. Their offensive play is easy on the eye and incredibly difficult to stop. Recently also possessed the knack of picking up maximum points in injury time. The only thing stopping them, their defence, which will perhaps eventually cost them. 3rd

 

Norwich = Simply put, with the greatest respect to all the other teams, we should've walked this division (we all say that don't we). We kept all our key players (minus Fer/Snodgrass) and added Grabban and Jerome. The appointment of a rookie youth manager was a gamble that ultimately back-fired, leading us to be too gung-ho with no idea how to keep a clean sheet. The new man, Alex Neil, (a defensive-mid player himself) has immediately sorted this. Now, a lot more structured, with recent form anything is possible. The next 3 will define our challenge (Watford (a), Blackburn (a), Ipswich (h)). However, ultimately too much ground to make up to finish top 2. 4th 

 

1. Boro

2. Derby

3. Watford

4. Norwich

5. Bournemouth

6. Ipswich

[Tom1]

Derby have made more than 4000 more short passes than Ipswich this season. Ipswich have played nearly a 1000 more long balls. Derby average 55.7% possession a game, Ipswich 48.9%. Ipswich have created 97 chances with long balls, Derby 37.

This is stat has got to be my favourite, though.

Derby are the most accurate long ball side in the division, having played the least, Ipswich are among the worst for accuracy in their long balls despite playing the most. Ipswich have recorded the highest number of inaccurate short passes too, despite playing the fourth least amount in the division.

I'm here all week

[Tom1]

Accurate passes don't get points, doesn't matter how you play towards the end of season,get the ball in the net, what has arsenal won recently, fa cup that's all, best team to watch by far but will not win the league neither will derby

[GrumpyBear]

When we played Derby at the Riverside you made loads of short passes in your own third, which we let you do, but then when you crossed the half way line we were all over you and won the ball back quickly. Boro always concede this kind of possession because it is harmless, and we rarely finish a game with the most possession. 

 

What counts is the most effective possession.

[SweetMeats]

I must say, I'm a tad miffed that 'norwich' thinks the mighty Cherries are going to finish 5th AND that Watford are the best attacking side in the division (have you seen how many goals we've scored this season?)

 

To go back to the original question, sticking my neck out, I'm going for AFCB (natch.) followed by Watford. Although we beat the Hornets at Dean Court, Deeney, Igahalo and Gomes were all extremely good and their run-in doesn't look too painful.

 

Of the others, I expect Defrby and M'boro to last the distance and be in the play-offs, Ipswich and Norwich may well drop out altogether if Blackburn and Birmingham put runs together that sees them take 24 points out of the next 30 (remember that this time last season AFCB did something like that and got into a play-off spot) and I pick out Norwich and Ipswich, as they both appeared very vulnerable at tmes during our games against them.

 

However, if we don't go up, aside from losing out on the 33-1 odds I got before the start of the season, it's been such a great time, I'll take great pleasure in seeing us have another crack at it next season. What a great division to play football in.

 

Oh and to the Ipswich supporter who said only Mick McCarthy could go from bottom of the table to your position now, whilst spending so little on transfer fees; I'd like to point you towards Howe's record when he took over at AFCB. We were 2nd bottom and en-route to the Conference, 23-games to the end of the season, with a transfer embargo in place and having to seek perrmisssion from the headmaster of a local school, to allow one of our youth-teamers to leave school early in a taxi, to sit on our bench (which we couldn't fill). Had the season been 23-games long from Howe's appointment, we would've come 2nd.

[TRam]

Boro and Bournemouth right now. If we get our act together, probably us and Boro.

[Dimmu]

Surprised nobody has plumped for Watford.

 

They have inviting fixtures left, including home games against Ipswich and Boro who they could beat to overtake. I think they're slightly underrated, and it's clear by some of their wins this season they've got some quality players.

 

People going for Norwich are barmy.

 

As if they're going to make up nine points on two of Derby, Boro and Bournemouth with just 16 games remaining.

 

After the first 16 games this season, Norwich were 7th. Are you now suggesting fr the last 16 games of the season they're going to be top, nine points better off than the top three over the last 16 games?

 

Not sure where this perception has come from that they're some sort of amazing team. They've spent most of the season outside the top six for a reason. I mean, fair enough if they had a start like Reading in 2011/12 and then surged up the table, but if anything Norwich started amazing and got worse as the season has gone on.

[Gritstone Ram]

 Norwich are coming up on the rails they looked the best team to come to the iPro this season. So far.

[Bris Vegas]

​Still think this is barmy? Just two rounds later 4 points to auto place and 14 to go...

 

[norwich]

When it comes to us (Norwich), what fans of other clubs don't realise, and understandably so, is that we're a totally different team to what we were from Aug-Jan '15. Completely different managerial set-up.

We always had the squad but we didn't have the manager. Now we do. Crucially we're a lot more solid defensively, better structured and play the opposition instead of simply adopting the Kevin Keegan 'we're score one more goal than you' school of tactics. These are the results since Alex Neil [ex-Hamiliton Accies, have a look what's happened to them since he left] took the managerial reigns:

Bournemouth (a) - 1-2 = W

Cardiff (h) - 3-2 = W

Brentford (h) - 1-2 = L

Birmingham (a) - 0-0 = D

Blackpool (h) - 4-0 = W

Charlton (a) - 2-3 = W

Wolves (h) - 2-0 = W

Watford (a) - 0-3 = W

The one loss so far under Neil coming at home to Brentford in a match due to the fact we were missing 4/5 of our central midfielders due to injury or suspension [Howson, Tettey, O'Neill, Vadis Ofoe] and forced to play our right-back, Steven Whittaker, there.

The match also came too soon for another key player, Sebastian Bassong, due to a period of 'fitness catch-up'. He fell out with our previous manager Neil Adams pre-season and was banished to Watford for a few months. By far our best centre-back and vocal leader, he was brought back into the squad when Adams was sacked, making his 1st appearance in the goal-less draw at St. Andrews.

So, since we've had our best defender back along with our senior midfielders, our record under the new man reads like this:

• 13/15 maximum points
• 4 out of 5 clean sheets
• 12 goals in 5 matches

Yesterday, in a great away win to Watford, we were able to bring on Hooper, Redmond, and Dorrans from the sidelines [hence, demonstrating the depth in squad needed to win this divison]. Plenty more twists and turns yet of course, but I firmly believe we now have a manager to match our squad. I'm going to change my prediction earlier in this tread and stick my neck out [as the thread title states] and say we'll nick an automatic spot. 

 

[Bris Vegas]

When it comes to us (Norwich), what fans of other clubs don't realise, and understandably so, is that we're a totally different team to what we were from Aug-Jan '15. Completely different managerial set-up.

We always had the squad but we didn't have the manager. Now we do. Crucially we're a lot more solid defensively, better structured and play the opposition instead of simply adopting the Kevin Keegan 'we're score one more goal than you' school of tactics. These are the results since Alex Neil [ex-Hamiliton Accies, have a look what's happened to them since he left] took the managerial reigns:

Bournemouth (a) - 1-2 = W

Cardiff (h) - 3-2 = W

Brentford (h) - 1-2 = L

Birmingham (a) - 0-0 = D

Blackpool (h) - 4-0 = W

Charlton (a) - 2-3 = W

Wolves (h) - 2-0 = W

Watford (a) - 0-3 = W

The one loss so far under Neil coming at home to Brentford in a match due to the fact we were missing 4/5 of our central midfielders due to injury or suspension [Howson, Tettey, O'Neill, Vadis Ofoe] and forced to play our right-back, Steven Whittaker, there.

The match also came too soon for another key player, Sebastian Bassong, due to a period of 'fitness catch-up'. He fell out with our previous manager Neil Adams pre-season and was banished to Watford for a few months. By far our best centre-back and vocal leader, he was brought back into the squad when Adams was sacked, making his 1st appearance in the goal-less draw at St. Andrews.

So, since we've had our best defender back along with our senior midfielders, our record under the new man reads like this:

• 13/15 maximum points
• 4 out of 5 clean sheets
• 12 goals in 5 matches

Yesterday, in a great away win to Watford, we were able to bring on Hooper, Redmond, and Dorrans from the sidelines [hence, demonstrating the depth in squad needed to win this divison]. Plenty more twists and turns yet of course, but I firmly believe we now have a manager to match our squad. I'm going to change my prediction earlier in this tread and stick my neck out [as the thread title states] and say we'll nick an automatic spot. 

 

[RaphaRam]

We won't Gerrard out of the top two now.

Derby and Norwich.

[Dimmu]

​I have no doubts that Norwich are on a good run, possess a decent squad, have momentum and are only four points behind the autos.

But just from a sheer mathematical point of view, a couple of weeks ago I said it was almost impossible to make the top two and while it's not looking that way, I stand by my opinion that you won't.

No disrespect, I just don't think you're a good enough team to win 13 of your last 16 matches (the figure I calculated for you to make it).

You're on a brilliant run, but you guys will have to maintain at the very least to get the top two. Fail to win on Tuesday and a victory for us would leave you 8 points (possibly 9) behind us. With 13 games remaining Norwich won't catch us.

As in no part of an entire 46 games season would in any block of 13 matches somebody be 8 or 9 points better off than us, Boro or Bournemouth for instance. Nobody is THAT consistent IMO.

[Papahet]

Norwichs remaining fixtures are pretty tasty too.

Can't see them dropping too many points bar possibly against Ipswich and Boro - saying that I expected Boro to batter Leeds yesterday 

Said in November they'll be a threat at the latter stages.

 

 

[Ram a lamb a ding dong]

Said since Xmas that if we dont make top 2 the one team i want to avoid at all costs is Norwich. At the beginning of the season i tipped Norwich as champs and the Rams as runners up. Even though Boro are in a good position their rûn in is grim. I've now revised my predictions to be Rams as champs and Norwich 2nd.

92 pts will get us up so we need 9 wins and 2 draws from the last 14 matches. Defo doo-able.

 

[eddie]

I'm not worried about Norwich - the only side I'm worried about is Derby - and if Schuper Schteve can sort out the defensive frailties that have crept in of late, nobody in this division will be within touching distance come May.

They say that "The table doesn't lie" - well, we are top. Now how about the form table? Over the last 6 games, Leeds are top with Derby second.  Home or away, we are performing as well as, if not better than, most, and I think that will continue.

Over the last 10 games, Derby are top (23 points) with Norwich second (22 points). Middlesbrough hanging in there on 21, despite losing at home to the bang in-form Dirties. Bournemouth and Ipswich (the sides supported by two of the most vociferous posters in this thread) languishing in relative mid-form-table obscurity on 17 and 16 points respectively.

 

[Ram a lamb a ding dong]

We could be 6 pts ahead of 3rd come Tuesday night and Bournemouth have a difficult game at NFFC. First time ever i will be cheering on the red dogs.

[Bris Vegas]

How come?

It was 9 points just two rounds ago, now it is 4. I fail to understand your logic here, massively so. 14 games and 4 points is more than achievable.

[PistoldPete2]

Bris they are only 6 points behind us and we have to go there with no away fans cos they are charging £40 a pop. They were the best team I have seen at the ipro, and they've just battered an in form Watford away. There's usually someone who comes in with a barnstormimg  finish and my tip would be for Norwich to do that. We need to be very good in the last 14 games, if we slip up there are teams below us who are good enough to catch us. 

[Kernow]

I've chsnged my mind from my original post.

I now think we'll finish top & it'll be incredibly close between Norwich & Boro. I can't even guess who it'll be. I'm going to go for Boro, just.

Derby, Boro & Norwich to go up regardless.