Albert
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Posts posted by Albert
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4 minutes ago, maxjam said:
The latest data from the CDC is that vaccinated people who contract the Delta variant of COVID-19 may spread the virus just as easily as unvaccinated people.
Note that it says that people who contract the delta variant may be as infectious. That is, they have found cases where people who are vaccinated have later tested positive, and had similar viral loads to people who are unvaccinated. What it isn't saying is that people who are vaccinating are always doing so, it also isn't saying that the vaccines aren't preventing people contracting it, which they definitely are, including with the delta variant. This prevention is, in turn, meaning that less people will catch it overall, even before considering impacts of the vaccine for reducing viral loads. This, of course, would mean mass vaccination reduces the risk of further variants.
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43 minutes ago, Archied said:
Once upon a time people who needed a safety blanket were happy just to carry their own , now they need everybody else to have one too to make them feel safe ??♂️, selfish in my book would be me forcing others to live and do as I want them to to make me feel safe ??♂️, I’m 60 and neither expect or want anybody to make me feel safe , I will do that myself thanks ,
this whole virtue signalling scenario to cover up selfish personal fears is so so obvious ??♂️
Once upon a time we eradicated smallpox. Infectious diseases don't need a 'safety blanket', they need not to spread. It's not about 'personal fears', and it's good for a whole society, notably including the vulnerable within it.
There are those in society who simply cannot be protected by their own immune systems due to issues with said immune system. The idea of just leaving them to die because you want to not have a vaccine for ideological reasons is silly.
Being part of a society means you do what you can to help that society, it always has. Quarantine measures, etc have been used since ancient times. Mass vaccination programs have also been many times in the past century. The issue now is that we have elements of our society happy and primed to accept propaganda from a few dodgy actors looking to make a name from themselves in the antivax space.
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7 hours ago, maxjam said:
To be fair, at the start of the pandemic we were told we needed approx 60-70% vaccine uptake to reach herd immunity. I have since read elsewhere that other 'experts' have said it may need to be as much as 80-90%, and in one article, 98% uptake!?!
Estimates early in the pandemic varied wildly, but it was noted at the time that it could end up being quite high for future variants. The issue was that a lot of countries left it to burn, leading to variants.
7 hours ago, maxjam said:A key point however is that the covid vaccines don't provide sterlising immunity - you can still catch it and pass it on, therefore herd immunity will never be reached. Furthermore, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that mass vaccination during a pandemic may put additional pressure on the virus to mutate, in which case blaming future variants on the unvaccinated will unnecessarily demonize them further
The risk of variants increases with case load, if countries were serious about preventing variants, they wouldn't be having 'freedom days', they'd be trying to suppress spread and complete their vaccination programs. Vaccination tends not to lead to such, as it suppresses transmission, and depending on the type of vaccine, they can be quite broad against different variations in any case.
Equally, while research is ongoing, people who are vaccinated do have lower case viral loads in the cases where they have asymptomatic disease. Lower viral loads are strongly associated with less transmission. There's a lot of clickbait about people getting symptomatic disease passing it on while vaccinated, and the occasional suggestion of an asymptomatic case doing the same, but there's little to suggest that people who are fully vaccinated pass it on as easily.
Equally, being unvaccinated is entirely someone's choice, a selfish one at that in many countries. If further variants occur, it will be it spreading wild through unvaccinated populations that will be the cause, as it has previously. The difference now is that as time goes on, that fraction of the population will be vulnerable by choice in many countries. Societies usually take offense at those within their ranks who make selfish choices that harm others.
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40 minutes ago, Stagtime said:
Here’s hoping stage 4 is Scomo packing his sharks scarf in his suitcase as he’s kicked out of the lodge. I have no confidence in anything he says.
I wouldn't hold out much hope. As long as Murdoch wants him in the lodge, he'll be there. Their more recent strategy of just pretending the opposition leader is quiet and doing nothing has worked well for a few cycles. It's actually a brilliant strategy to be fair. Paint the opposition as quiet and timid for the majority of the time, then suddenly shine a light on any policies that look scary in the immediate leadup to the election. Worked like a charm last time, and now Labor are basically putting up the blandest looking election platform they've done since the Beasley days. Covid has also had a huge protective effect on incumbent governments too, and while public confidence isn't high in the Federal government's handling, as long as NSW gets out of this current crisis before election day, it'll likely still help them.
This all said, if polls continue to tumble for them, Scomo is likely to make way for someone more marketable before the end of this year so they can gear up for that election. I'm really not sure who they'd trot out though. Dutton's Voldemort reputation is well and truly set in stone now, while Porter's reputation is all but gone. Frydenberg is possible, but likely seen as too boring. None of them have a sick "I stopped these trophy" to put on their desk either.
40 minutes ago, i-Ram said:I probably could get behind all of this if I didn’t have the sneaking suspicion that a member of the Australian Military was holding a gun to your temple whilst you typed this.
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the military had lost confidence in Scomo to such an extent they were getting people, at gunpoint, to criticise him online.
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12 minutes ago, Stagtime said:
We have a 4 stage plan. At the moment we are in the suppression stage. 70% vaccinations will remove lockdowns. Once we reach 80% vaccinations covid will then be treated as a illness. It was never a absolute zero policy as an end game. Still hard to believe our federal government has ducked the vaccine program so bad. Up here in Qld we’ve just gone into our 3rd 3 day lockdown so really can’t complain too much compared with what’s going on elsewhere.
Just seen Albert has given you a response along the same lines
Got to be honest, Scomo having a "4 stage plan" never really fills me with confidence, as it always seems like him trying to market himself, but it, and the research that backed it, at least illuminate what that long term strategy is.
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19 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:
I just don't see how it's sustainable long term. Australia will indefinitely have to keep isolated with hotel quarantine to keep this up forever.
The long term strategy is to relax restrictions further once we've reached some targets for vaccination rates. The current modelling suggests that at 80%+ vaccination, with the delta strain being the prevalent strain, that minor outbreaks can be resolved without lockdowns, etc.
What that means for returning travelers is still somewhat in the air, but in the next 4-6 months, that works given all the positives gained through the strategy overall. Less deaths, less damage to the economy, and less people who will suffer long term complications from Covid-19.
19 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:Looks like NSW cases may trend down.. The contact tracing really does seem to work at low levels.
It's contact tracing, not lockdowns, that have allowed Australia to pursue elimination. Lockdowns have only really been used for two purposes:
1. To give time to ringfence outbreaks, ie give the contact tracers time to do their jobs.
2. Act as a backstop when the decision to do a snap lockdown has come too late (see Victoria last year, NSW now).
19 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:Australia probably handled the pandemic the best in the world after NZ but I don't understand how they can keep up the absolute zero covid policy forever unless you continue with HQ forever.
Even when there's a high level of vaccination you will still get pockets of transmission because the vaccines as shown elsewhere aren't close to 100% transmission.
You don't need 100% protection, you just need enough to make it so spread isn't viable anymore. For the Delta strain, that appears to be 80-85% vaccination with vaccinations as effective against the delta strain as AstraZeneca and Pfizer after two doses.
As above though, the long term strategy is to use a phased approach out of this. As Scomo said, there won't be any 'freedom day' here. He implied that you'd have to be a idiot to go for something like that.
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On 30/07/2021 at 16:30, alexxxxx said:
I suspect the hardest part will be moving from the elimination strategy (which could be impossible in NSW anyway now, due to delta variant) to regularising international travel and the inevitability of covid growth.
The official advice, now accepted by the Federal government, is that elimination remains the only strategy for Australia. NSW can eliminate it, but it's going to take them actually putting in proper restrictions, than than this patchwork stuff that keep going for. Sadly, they buggered up the response, but everyone saw this coming when it started. Gladys wanted to play politics with a virus and lost.
On 30/07/2021 at 16:30, alexxxxx said:Seeing some australians comments online berating people for exercising outside incase you catch / spread covid shows how worlds apart the attitude is here and there.
I've honestly not seen any Australians complaining about exercising. Official policy in every state, to my knowledge, has been that exercise is fine. There are rules about it, eg only people from your household, etc, but it is encouraged. You've probably just come across a nutjob.
On 30/07/2021 at 16:30, alexxxxx said:How Australia failed to procure the vaccines it required does point to a lack of planning in how to exit its otherwise well executed strategy. There have been so few deaths.
The federal government have been pathetic from start to finish. The good stuff has been done by the states, Morrison and his rabble have achieved little, but made a lot of mistakes on the way to that during this past year and a half.
15 hours ago, Eddie said:Incidentally, I find it quaintly amusing (and somewhat scary on the AC scale (abject covidiocy) scale that there are some on here suggesting that Australia is a covid disaster in the making when their total number of cases since the pandemic began 18 months ago is approximately the same as the number of cases we had yesterday.
It's like how Trump was giddy with excitement when New Zealand had an outbreak of a dozen or so people last year, because he got sick of hearing about how well they did, and basically wanted to celebrate their 'disaster in the making'. The reality is, Australia's method worked for protecting lives and livelihoods, and continues to do so. The states really saved us, as the Federal government really wanted to go down the UK's route, but the states kind of battled for who could be the strongest on it.
The federal government, as I've discussed on here since mid last year, has been an utter shambles through this whole process though. Literally everything they've touched in regard to it has been a mess. Hotel quarantine, letting in the rich and powerful while leaving Australians stranded, supporting Palmer trying to force WA's borders open, not procuring vaccines, etc.
The most egregious of all, however, has been their rhetoric around vaccines in general. Due to initial issues around supply, they wanted to blame 'hesitancy', despite there being no vaccines available, so they pushed the line that 'because of the advice from overseas, no-one wants AstraZeneca'. This was then further pushes by their Murdoch mates, which actually has generated a movement of people only wanting Pfizer. This was particularly stupid of them, because AstraZeneca is now in massive oversupply, but only about 15% of people are fully vaccinated, and they've basically bottlenecked us on Pfizer, which is entirely due to them turning Pfizer down last year.
15 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:How close are they to opening up, and what percentage of population is their cases?
The majority of the country has been opened up for the majority of the pandemic. NSW at the moment looks in deep trouble, but as discussed on here a few weeks back, that's all thanks to the LNP bending over backwards for Murdoch 'n mates and their political hardon against lockdowns.
Last year, we did so well in keeping our response largely apolitical, but sadly NSW ultimately succumb to the temptation to sling mud at other states to try and win a byelection, and so have been way too lax in their response since. They had the slowest burning of the recent outbreaks, but through lockdown hesitancy allowed it to get out of control. Thankfully, while the same side of politics, South Australia's government is actually competent, and despite a worse initial outbreak, managed to get control of that situation with a 7 day lockdown, and it now looks like it may well be in the clear. Still harsher restrictions on capacity, masks, etc, for the time being, but way better than the months of lockdown NSW now faces for Gladys' mistakes.
As to percentage of population, the population of Australia is 25.36 million, compared to the UK's 66.65. Times Australia's numbers by 2.5, and you'll get a rough equivalent to what it would be like in a UK sized population.
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7 hours ago, Tamworthram said:
It would do if it a) could be reasonably proved that it was the vaccinations that has caused the problem and b) was more widespread than one potential incident, that we’re aware of on this forum, out of the millions that have been vaccinated.
It’s obviously of no consolation to those impacted but it’s inevitable that there will be a very small number of people having an adverse reaction to all types of medication. The question is, is the risks from taking the vaccine greater or less than the risks, including long covid, of catching the virus whilst unvaccinated.
With regard to your point on mutation, do you have any links to any articles on this? I’ve not seen or heard any such claims and that includes a Zoe research webex I joined last week.
This point about mutations is just people mixing up ideas. Mutations tend with numbers infected, and vaccinating people reduces the overall number of expected infections, hence reducing the likelihood of further mutations. Some people are confusing this with the idea that using antibiotics leading to antibiotic resistant bacteria, which is true, but the situation is more complicated. The biggest risk with antibiotic resistant bacteria is widespread use of antibiotics, while not using them effectively to drive the number of bacteria overall down. Examples of such issues are people only taking part of their course of antibiotics, or blanket giving antibiotics.
The big risk for more variants of concern is if you open up too soon, and allow uncontrolled spread through the community, as having more infected people means that there's greater risk of new variants appearing.
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On 13/07/2021 at 16:48, alexxxxx said:
Had the opportunity to grab a second vaccine dose a few weeks early.. I know a few people doing the same.
Feels like the best thing to do right now with cases still rising.
Will be interesting to see what the impact was on the semi and final to cases... Data seemed to show that case growth was slowing.
Its really interesting looking at what Australia are doing right now.. Due to terrible vaccine supply and banning of AZ vaccine for under 60s they've barely got anyone protected. NSW looking like they're going to go in to full lockdown again..
No end in site for them if they carry on down this road.
To manage the first half of the pandemic so well and to be failing hard on the second half...
AZ is not recommended for under 60s, as opposed to banned. The current position in Australia is anyone over 18 can have it, but they need to speak with their GP first. Plenty of people under 60 are getting the AZ vaccine at the moment.
The interesting one with NSW right now is it's exactly the concerns I raised on here months back. The Federal Government has been appalling pandemic long for Australia, and the vaccine rollout is just par for the course. The states handled things well individually, for the most part, but NSW has been a bit lucky throughout, and usually slow to clear outbreaks. The federal government, if anything, actively opposed much of the good work the states were doing, including actually supporting a legal challenge against WA's systems that were keeping them at zero.
The issue for NSW is that they had some super spreader events, and still haven't fully locked down, instead being in a 'lockdown', as politically they turned their voting base against full lockdowns. Elsewhere, things are pretty under control, and honestly, have been close to normal for the last 12 months. The week I've spent in lockdown in the last 12 months has been worth of the other 51 of pretty much normal. Apart from NSW, which are in trouble of their own making, things are pretty stable here overall, though NSW is now seeding new outbreaks, like Victoria's new one, and the scare here in SA.
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17 hours ago, maxjam said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56825920
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57181038
In short there seems to be several problems;
- supply shortages
- logistical problems
- vaccine hesitancy
- low covid infection rate leading to no rush to get jabbed
- fears over the AstraZenica vaccine
The issue with the vaccine rollout is that it's been done federally, while the good work controlling the virus was on a state level. Broadly speaking, Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia have done very well for themselves. Victoria, after lockdown hesitancy before their second wave, have done exceptionally despite the federal government's best efforts, while New South Wales have lived dangerously, but before now done okay as they've tended to drop the political theatre and lockdown when things spiral out of control.
Funnily enough, the Federal Government was actually against the strategy adopted at state level, and have helped others campaign against it, such as Clive Palmer v WA. The federal approach, sadly, is essentially to claim credit for the States good work, while sitting on their hands otherwise. This has included, in no particular order:
- Failing to develop a long term strategy for quarantine, instead relying on 'medihotels', which have been pretty much universally the source of leaks that have lead to more outbreaks.
- Failing to secure enough doses of the vaccines.
- Turning down a deal with Pfizer which would have secured enough vaccines last year.
- Not dealing with the issues around aged care at all, despite all the investigations being pretty clear about what needed to be done.
They've tried to palm off a lot of the issues around the vaccine rollout to the states, and with that failing, they've cooked up a 'vaccine hesitancy' story with their Murdoch mates. The reality on the ground though is that there just isn't the supply.
Their latest galaxy brain action at the top is to first recommend the AstraZeneca vaccine to only over 60s, then when these outbreaks started suggest that under 60s can take it, but they should talk to their GP first. They pretty much actively pushed for more vaccine hesitancy to distract from their ballsup in not accepting the offer from Pfizer last year, and now, want to palm blame off to the individual instead. It sells well in the Murdoch press though, so I suspect they'll get away with this.
Honestly, we'd have been better off with Scomo pulling another Hawaii moment and just leaving the vaccine procurement and rollout to the states. Everything his government has touched in this pandemic has been a disaster unfortunately. That all said, the states have kept things under control, and honestly, where I am, things really aren't that different from 2019 this year.
- ariotofmyown and ramesses
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2 hours ago, Eddie said:
In the pre-vaccination days, approximately 8% of cases ended up in hospital, and of those, a quarter came out feet first.
Although the Delta variant has been here for a couple of months, overall cases were in decline, and continued to do so until mid-May, at which point pubs re-opened for indoor service. I'm not suggesting that was the prime factor (if it was, I'm as guilty as anyone else because I have been going to pubs since that date), but from that date onwards, cases have started to rise again exponentially. The increase in cases is such that, since some restrictions were relaxed, the incidence of new daily cases, which was increasing by 40% every 7 or 8 days, is now doubling over the same time period.
- 14 May - 2193
- 22 May - 2523
- 30 May - 3111
- 6 June - 5223
- 14 June - 7606
- 22 June - 11481
- 30 June - 25606
It's a fair bet that, by the end of next week, we will be up to 40-50K new cases per day again. I sincerely hope that I am wrong.
I agree totally that we may not see a substantial increase in hospitalisations and, ultimately, deaths this time around - after all, that was the reason for the hyper-aggressive vaccination rollout. We may well just 'have to live with it' - because wishing it away ain't going to happen, despite the protestations of some.
The worry is that this is exactly the pattern of the last wave. Cases rise first, followed by hospitalisations, then deaths. The cases are rising, and we're seeing the beginning of rising hospitalisations as well. The hope is that enough people are vaccinated to alleviate that, but the delta variant is concerning, and if the vaccines have been effective, then we shouldn't be seeing the rising hospitalisations. A worrying few weeks are ahead.
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7 hours ago, maxjam said:
Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, said: "We want to be on the front foot for Covid-19 booster vaccination to keep the probability of loss of vaccine protection, due to waning immunity or variants, as low as possible - especially over the coming autumn and winter."
He said other respiratory viruses, particularly flu, "will make a comeback" and be an additional problem this winter.
"We will need to ensure protection against flu, as well as maintaining protection against Covid-19," Prof Van-Tam said.
Okay for arguments sake, what if covid claims another 10k-20k lives over winter and the flu (that will apparently 'make a comeback') claims another 10k-60k deaths, we could easily be looking at 50k+ deaths over the winter. Will that be reason enough to lockdown again?!?
Why are you using a chart from last August?
I'd have thought by now you'd have learnt the basics of this discussion.
Lockdowns are a means of control of infection rates, they're not a response to deaths, they're a means of preventing them. Countries that have used them effectively use them in short sharp bursts. For example, the state where I am, we've been in lockdown less than a week in the last year, and have had no Covid deaths in that time at all. The lockdowns come when there is any community transmission as a means of getting on top of the outbreak.
The issue the UK has had is that due to political pressure against actually dealing with the situation properly, lockdowns have largely been used as a reactionary measure, not a proactive one, and using them for this purpose leads to long rolling lockdowns, which while effecting, are no where near as effective as the short proactive ones.
It's also interesting that this 'flu has claimed x deaths' line has come back from you. For one, the flu and pneumonia combined, which is quite constellation of diseases, has not claimed more than 35k lives in the UK in over 20 years. Covid-19, without making it through the entire population, has claimed over 120k, likely over 150k, in 18 months. That there is the point of controls, boosters, etc. The disease is on another scale to other viruses that cause things like pneumonia.
The expectation would be that if a variant of Covid-19 got out of control again, there would be lockdowns. A set of seasonal diseases, running through the whole population killing 25-35k would not lead to lockdowns, because it's doing so in a way that burns itself out, while Covid-19 is not, as well and truly demonstrated by this point.
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For all the many things that Mel's regime have made a mess of, ironically, the one which will have the most direct consequences, actually seems to be the one where their ducks were in order.
The truly bizarre part of it all is that the amortisation policy used is itself is a double edged sword. The start and end points are the same, it's just how it gets there that are different.
Regardless of final outcome, however, the EFL have better PR overall, and given the bumbling nature of Mel's regime otherwise, Derby will come off looking bad regardless of the outcome.
- r_wilcockson, ariotofmyown and mike93rh
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19 minutes ago, ziggyram59 said:
According to Alan Nixon in today Sun quotes the following Sunsports understands an independent disciplinary appeals is ready to come down in favour of EFL who have refused to accept defeat in the cash row. The charges were dismissed by first independent disciplinary commission in August 2020, but with several clubs angered by the outcome the EFL appealed. Top sources claim the decision had already been taken but was kept secret as Derby fought for championship survival. It then goes on to say that Mel Morris club could be hit with a points deduction next season that runs into double figures. Similar to Sheffield Wednesday this season.
There is so much about this that doesn't pass the sniff test, the big ones being Alan Nixon's name being attached, and the notion that a decision could already be made but 'kept secret'.
Edit: Also, they were only appealing the lesser charge, which doesn't have precedent for a large points deduction to my understanding.
- Dimmu, Reggie Greenwood and sage
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WE SURVIVE!!!!
HOW?!
HOW?!
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Rotherham are down, it's now just us v Wednesday to decide.
This is too much.
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Goal for Cardiff, there is some hope!
- Fla Ram and Mick Brolly
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COME ON YOU RAMS!
THERE IS LIFE IN THIS!
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Oh dear, he was offside too. Nothing can be done about it now.
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...well, that's that isn't it.
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Rotherham lead. We're in the relegation places right now.
The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread
in The Jim Smith Room
Posted
I'm not focusing on single words, I'm focusing on the other research I have already read researching transmission of Covid-19. The vaccines do protect against infection, and we know this because they've done studies on vaccinated and unvaccinated people. For viral loads to be high enough to be infectious, they actually need to be detectable, ie they actually need to turn up as positive on a PCR test, etc. Those that aren't cannot possibly have the same viral loads as actual confirmed cases, etc.
Do you have a source on twitter, facebook, etc, 'fact checking the CDC tweet as false'?