Bob The Badger

The problem, or rather one of them, with the virus is that it's invisible and not easy to quantify, understand or predict.
During WWII people banded together because they could see and understand a common enemy. It made sense, it was obvious what they wanted and how they were going to get it. Sticking together made sense.
At the moment governments across all ideological boundaries are banding together in their insiatsnce that this is really serious, but the people they govern don't quite understand it so many aren't supporting them.
They cannot see the enemy and they flat our don't understand the science, so they are rebelling.
That isn't to suggest that scientists fully understand the science because it's very early, just that those studying it are aware of the potential implications if we bat on regardless.
To think this is a conspiracy is anywhere on the spectrum of flat out moronic to being paranoid, to simply not understanding how many people can keep a secret.
Fauci said right at the beginning of this  (and I paraphrase) that he's rather be considered a fraud for over exaggerating and nothing happens, than negligent because he said nothing.
Pretty much every government and serious scientist on the face of the planet is saying 'seriously, we could have a huge problem on our hands here and it may get a lot worse' but still some people with zero scientific background and with no relevant information that contracdicts that other than a hunch or two are effectively saying....

 

BTW @Carl Sagan my wife's best friend left Romania during the Ceausescu regime (although in fairness she was very young, it was her parents who left and took her and her sister to the US), my Grandfather left Poland when the Nazis invaded and the enlisted in the Navy, and I have a client who left China after being targeted as a dangerous individual (because she was a women who wanted to be climber and scale peaks over seas) and they all say 'thank duck we weren't born in Wales' .
 

Scotland and Wales have far-left authoritarian governments, do they?
Uh-huh.
And we fall into two groups of people like you who are vaxxed and trying to help the economy (you're such a trooper) by going out and people who are fearful who are sting at home, do we?
Uh-huh.
And the scientists don't know what's coming next in a new pandemic?
Uh-huh.
No, Wales and Scotland are not far left authoritarian governments. Are you even being serious with that, or taking the pee?
No, we don't fall into two groups, why would somebody claiming to be scientific make such a claim?
Seriously man, that's ludicrous.  I for one am double vaxxed and have had my booster and I go out as and when needed.
And you claim to be scientific?
Could it be that scientists don't know what to expect in the same way that they never know what to expect with something brand new.
Isn't the advancement of science based around not knowing what to expect?

I though modeling, testing, looking at data that you will sometimes get wrong to begin with, because ya know, it's early days,and then adapting  is/was the bedrock of science.
Isn't science a way of thinking?
Most disappointing comment I have ever read on this forum...literally. 
And I mean literally in the old sense when literal meant literal and not metaphorical.
You lost me way earlier than you lost @GboroRam.
 

The problem, or rather one of them, with the virus is that it's invisible and not easy to quantify, understand or predict.
During WWII people banded together because they could see and understand a common enemy. It made sense, it was obvious what they wanted and how they were going to get it. Sticking together made sense.
At the moment governments across all ideological boundaries are banding together in their insiatsnce that this is really serious, but the people they govern don't quite understand it so many aren't supporting them.
They cannot see the enemy and they flat our don't understand the science, so they are rebelling.
That isn't to suggest that scientists fully understand the science because it's very early, just that those studying it are aware of the potential implications if we bat on regardless.
To think this is a conspiracy is anywhere on the spectrum of flat out moronic to being paranoid, to simply not understanding how many people can keep a secret.
Fauci said right at the beginning of this  (and I paraphrase) that he's rather be considered a fraud for over exaggerating and nothing happens, than negligent because he said nothing.
Pretty much every government and serious scientist on the face of the planet is saying 'seriously, we could have a huge problem on our hands here and it may get a lot worse' but still some people with zero scientific background and with no relevant information that contracdicts that other than a hunch or two are effectively saying....

 

The media?
Do you even know what the media is?
It's literally thousands of outlets and you just lumped them all together.
This isn't 1955, or even 1995, you know.
All you did with that response is shout from the rooftops that you have no clue how people get their news anymore and presume everybody is like you.
Newsflash: They're not. In FACT, most people don't consume their news in the way you're whining about.
Welcome to 2021.
 

BTW @Carl Sagan my wife's best friend left Romania during the Ceausescu regime (although in fairness she was very young, it was her parents who left and took her and her sister to the US), my Grandfather left Poland when the Nazis invaded and the enlisted in the Navy, and I have a client who left China after being targeted as a dangerous individual (because she was a women who wanted to be climber and scale peaks over seas) and they all say 'thank duck we weren't born in Wales' .
 

Scotland and Wales have far-left authoritarian governments, do they?
Uh-huh.
And we fall into two groups of people like you who are vaxxed and trying to help the economy (you're such a trooper) by going out and people who are fearful who are sting at home, do we?
Uh-huh.
And the scientists don't know what's coming next in a new pandemic?
Uh-huh.
No, Wales and Scotland are not far left authoritarian governments. Are you even being serious with that, or taking the pee?
No, we don't fall into two groups, why would somebody claiming to be scientific make such a claim?
Seriously man, that's ludicrous.  I for one am double vaxxed and have had my booster and I go out as and when needed.
And you claim to be scientific?
Could it be that scientists don't know what to expect in the same way that they never know what to expect with something brand new.
Isn't the advancement of science based around not knowing what to expect?

I though modeling, testing, looking at data that you will sometimes get wrong to begin with, because ya know, it's early days,and then adapting  is/was the bedrock of science.
Isn't science a way of thinking?
Most disappointing comment I have ever read on this forum...literally. 
And I mean literally in the old sense when literal meant literal and not metaphorical.
You lost me way earlier than you lost @GboroRam.
 

The media?
Do you even know what the media is?
It's literally thousands of outlets and you just lumped them all together.
This isn't 1955, or even 1995, you know.
All you did with that response is shout from the rooftops that you have no clue how people get their news anymore and presume everybody is like you.
Newsflash: They're not. In FACT, most people don't consume their news in the way you're whining about.
Welcome to 2021.
 

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 
One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 
Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 
At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 
In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 
I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

BTW @Carl Sagan my wife's best friend left Romania during the Ceausescu regime (although in fairness she was very young, it was her parents who left and took her and her sister to the US), my Grandfather left Poland when the Nazis invaded and the enlisted in the Navy, and I have a client who left China after being targeted as a dangerous individual (because she was a women who wanted to be climber and scale peaks over seas) and they all say 'thank duck we weren't born in Wales' .
 

I was with you but that's laughable

What do you do and what data do you rely on to make your forecasting?
Without knowing that your statement is utterly pointless and means nothing to anybody other than you and people who already agree with you and don't want to think it through. 

What do you do and what data do you rely on to make your forecasting?
Without knowing that your statement is utterly pointless and means nothing to anybody other than you and people who already agree with you and don't want to think it through. 

Unless that's meant to be you saying the barrier is on the wrong side, when I'm guessing it's from overseas, I've no clue what you mean. 
I am looking on my phone though, so I could be missing some subtle visual nuance. 

Unless that's meant to be you saying the barrier is on the wrong side, when I'm guessing it's from overseas, I've no clue what you mean. 
I am looking on my phone though, so I could be missing some subtle visual nuance. 

I've been looking everywhere to find proof that we need to stop confirmation bias and all I could find was a report from Luxemburg from 1979 that says that we do in fact need to do that.
Good enough for me.
If you agree with me, we're good to go. if you don't, then there is little point sharing the link.
 

You're absolutely right. models are merely predictions based upon known data. They are mathematical calculations, not people guessing, and guessing badly, as @TexasRam seems to believe.
You don't stop modeling because you don't nail it every time anymore than you stop forecasting the weather when you get it horribly wrong.
I don't know this for a fact, but I'd be totally stunned if every model has been horribly wrong every time.
My *guess* is a good proportion will have been fairly accurate but who wants to point to a fairly accurate model from 6 months ago any more than than people want to talk about meteorologist getting it right. Where's the fun in that?
As an aside, I was just listening to the Nicky Campbell phone in whilst I was out with the hounds. They had a virology professor on who was saying that the booster jab gives more protection than actually catching Covid does. And that whereas it's not unique, it is very unusual. Normally, catching the virus you're immunising against provides the highest level of defence.
 

I've been looking everywhere to find proof that we need to stop confirmation bias and all I could find was a report from Luxemburg from 1979 that says that we do in fact need to do that.
Good enough for me.
If you agree with me, we're good to go. if you don't, then there is little point sharing the link.
 

Your finally question is basically, how do we stop confirmation bias. Not sure how you can deal with that.
Funny thing at the the moment is- watching people who’ve spent the last year or so slagging off scientists, doctors, experts and their data/modeling, now going full circle and hailing any that say the initial data points to Omnicrom being “mild”.

You're absolutely right. models are merely predictions based upon known data. They are mathematical calculations, not people guessing, and guessing badly, as @TexasRam seems to believe.
You don't stop modeling because you don't nail it every time anymore than you stop forecasting the weather when you get it horribly wrong.
I don't know this for a fact, but I'd be totally stunned if every model has been horribly wrong every time.
My *guess* is a good proportion will have been fairly accurate but who wants to point to a fairly accurate model from 6 months ago any more than than people want to talk about meteorologist getting it right. Where's the fun in that?
As an aside, I was just listening to the Nicky Campbell phone in whilst I was out with the hounds. They had a virology professor on who was saying that the booster jab gives more protection than actually catching Covid does. And that whereas it's not unique, it is very unusual. Normally, catching the virus you're immunising against provides the highest level of defence.
 

But they aren't "wrong". You are misunderstanding how this works, based on being manipulated by a Spectator article!
1. The scenarios say - "Based on current data and if these variables remain unchanged then this is what will happen"
2. The government then make decisions to change the variables in order to AVOID the scenario
3. The changes have an impact and the scenario does not come to pass
4. Click bait media publish graphs that show how the reality therefore does not match the scenario and makes impressionable people lose trust in experts
rinse and repeat
 
 
 

Erm....erm...follow the...erm...money?

I had my booster this week at a walk in glad I'm not gonna be part of the scramble. 

Shocking decision yet somehow seems correct.
I thought Lewis was fortunate to not be be penalised on Lap 1, thereafter drove brilliantly.
Max kept plugging away, taking advantage of every free pitstop that came his way, until we came to the bizarre ending. 
If Lewis had yielded position on Lap One, maybe he'd have been the beneficiary at the end of the race?
I fully expected it to end under a safety car, yet Masi interpreted the rule book in a way few others would, and we had the result we did, he's got enough experience to call it as he sees fit.
Going forward, get those restart rules down in black and white, with no room for interpretation, and end tyre changes under a red flag.