lrm14

The 14/15 season was before MM decided to through money at promotion. He saw injuries to the squad stop us earning promotion in 14/15, so tried to prevent that happening again.
Let's look at why we did so bad at the end of that season...
Defence
Buxton missed the final 11 games of the season leaving just Shotton (also covering RB) and Albentosa as options. Forsyth had to cover CB for the one game too.
Whitbread was already out injured since October, was rushed back into the side in April due to our injury crisis, played only 1 full games before picking up another injury 27 minutes into his 2nd start
Christie was out for the final 6 games. Due to Shotton also being injured at the time, Keogh filled in at RB for 2 games and Albentosa 1 until Shotton was rushed back in to the side.
Midfield
Thorne was injured in pre-season, and was only fit enough to play 29 minutes in the first team during this 12 game spell before returning to the treatment table.
Mascerall, his replacement, picked up an injury for the final 9 games.
Eustace, cover for both, picked up a career ending injury in the middle of January
Despite Hanson playing there for a couple of games, we struggled to find the right balance, even playing Dawkins and Warnock in midfield.
Forward
Martin was only fit enough to start 1 of the final 16 games, playing a total of 220 minutes during that spell.
Bent, our backup for Martin, was injured for the first 4 games of your 12 game run and for the penultimate game of the season.

My thoughts
I can't see Warne getting us promoted this year.
The football is pretty dire to watch.
Home performances are bad.
The players that have been signed don't look to have improved us.
The team from this time last year was better than now.
There have been some crucial injuries.
We have too many old players that flatter to deceive.
I think we have a team with no balance.
We have a team with no credible scoring threat
Our top scorer was signed as a fluke because he came along to a mates testimonial
Can Warne improve what we have got? I'm not sure he can. He has had a while to influence the team and we should be seeing improvements. This is league 1 not the premier league. Not saying that these things can't take time but i'm not seeing any improvement in the side.
I am very reluctant to say a manager should go as that can cause more problems but I don't really want to spend another season in league 1. 
I think give Warne until December. If we see improved performances and we are in with a fighting chance of play offs then he stays but if performances remain as they are and play-offs are looking out of reach then he should go to give a new manager time to sign new players and possibly make a fist of getting in the play offs.
Not to sound arrogant but we really shouldn't be in the position we are.

When a forum poster could tell you their names weeks before any of them were official, I think you can pretty much guarantee that the first flush of signings - Ward, Nelson, Bradley, Elder & Vickers were first choice signings.
2 of them have so far been a waste of a wage, likely amongst our highest  (I'm not including Vickers as it's important to have a good backup keeper). Could one of those have been 'sacrificed' in favour of a more proven striker?
That we've committed to paying a fee for Washington on promotion would also attest to him being someone of high priority. He's not an automatic pick for our starting lineups but has contributed.
Nyambe probably too, although not sure if that's because the forced formation change required a more traditional RB to come in and it moved him up a notch.
Can't really tell with Fornah due to it initially being proposed as a loan deal,  Wilson seemed an opportunistic signing but as we were planning for a wing back system we'd need multiple options and I can't think of a better backup to Ward than him who'd have been on our list.
Obviously Waghorn wasn't 1st choice, he wasn't even on the radar. TJJ seems unlikely to have been someone we planned from the start of pre-season, although I'd say there's a chance Embleton was. Not sure I can explain my loflgic there it's just a feeling.
Either way I'm not really convinced on the comparison to Clough.
Clough inherited a squad of prima donnas on high wages and long contracts who'd been 'stained' by the abject nature of our relegation and needed clearing out, most weren't interested in playing for us in the Championship. Massive job 
Warne doesn't have a massive job. Administration allowed us a reset and a chance to build pretty much from scratch, the club's reputation may have still been in a ditch but it had nothing to do with the players we kept from the previous season.
If we're to claim that the players Warne inherited are getting in the way of him playing the way he wants and that we need to clear them out before he can start his job in earnest then quite frankly he shouldn't have been appointed at all.

So the teams above us recruited better cos they were able to pay transfer fees?  Dream on.

Very unlikely you would lose 6 if playing good football.

As you stated RM, it's down to Clowes and what he will accept. 
I would speculate that not only have we had the forced financial constraints, I feel that due to our recent history of wealthy owners coming in (MM and Lionel) and losing a considerable amount of their personal investment/wealth DC will probably feel it would be crazy not to be much more prudent, even he wasn't allowed to be, so I'd guess the brief last year was play offs at best.  
This season I'd guess the brief will be more top two at best and established in the play offs at worst - whilst working within the budget and reducing the average age of the squad on short contracts, so we don't start each season having to recruit so many new players.
For footballing reasons and continuity I was not really sure on the logic of the Warne appointment, but DC has backed his horse and I doubt he'd want to almost admit defeat now and pay him and his staff off at the moment.   
Clowes will no doubt have concerns and pressure is mounting but we've not reached tipping point for me.  
Not knowing all the ins and outs on costs etc, I think he will show Warne more patience, but we clearly need to see much improved performances, points, and league position in the coming weeks. 
Can Warne do it.  Of course I hope so, but I'm not really sure he will with some of the players recruited and the quality of Didzy not being replaced.  I'm also not really sure what's happened to our high press and gas out approach. 
Maybe PW will get to January and hopefully funds are in the pot to invest in some more creativity and goals, but I don't see the point in giving him the window if we find ourselves in a similar league position that we are today, coupled with very underwhelming performances. - that's surely when DC patience would go.
Up to you PW.
Cheers
Gangway D from the Terrace
 
 

Yes.  Wigan were bought out of admin on 30 March 2021 and sacked Leam Richardson some 20 months later on 10 November 2022.  Can't be bothered to look into the circumstances of any other clubs that have been in admin but sacking managers is part and parcel of football no matter what a clubs circumstances.  
Why would you give someone a four year contract if you weren't sure you could end if if they under-performed?
 

Now, whilst I’m not keen to see Warne sacked like some are, I do think if and when a change of management happens I’d like an appointment like Eustace rather than another “established” name. 
Also feel if he is replaced by Rooney he’s being very hard done by. 

If Rooney goes to Brum, I'd have Eustace in a heartbeat 

On the Rotherham fans' site their fans were asked if they would like him back – they are struggling again. The majority said no, especially critical of his coaching staff and the limited style of football played. There were some unpleasant comments when he did join us at the time, leaving just as the season started. They highlighted that one promotion was gifted to them and another they nearly blew a 14pt lead, and the players ran out of steam. They'd prefer he remains a legend and stays here. 

My expectations
Academy - 5 years to recover
First team
L1 promotion 2 years
Bottom half championship 1 year
Top half championship 1 year
Playoff contenders 
So 4-5 years to get to where we were in 2019 but hopefully in a much more stable financial position. 
For Warne to get a new contract beyond his current one, Derby would need to be a top half championship side showing potential to go for playoffs. IMO he needs promotion this year to keep his job, he then needs to get us comfortably away from a relegation battle next season in the championship. 
 
I want him to be the man to lead us forward and back to where we used to be. Am I convinced he will be? Jury is out. This season we’ve had an ok start, the last 3 performances have been of a reasonable standard with exception of Cheltenham first half, certainly the reaction to yesterday has been massively disproportionate, we’re in the mix for playoffs and I don’t see Pompey and Oxford maintaining their current pace. However he needs to start winning some home games soon or he could start to have problems.

Time for a reality check...
We CAN pay fees, but our manager has so far opted to not pay anything upfront - Washington, Fornah and Wilson will all cost us if we get promoted and/or sell them for a fee ourselves.
Our wage bill is definitely top 6, highly likely top 3, and possibly even top of the whole list. Our top 5 earners will be earning more than Cheltenham's entire squad!

What are you expecting a fully rebuilt academy to look like? How many more academy staff are we short? Players through the squads of what level?
The best academy seasons at U18 and U21 level was arguably 18/19 (when the U18s won the league and 19/20 (U21s finished 4th). We were fortunate to get a high number of good quality youngsters through at the same time who will have good EFL careers. Even prior to administration, we didn't have 2 consecutive batches matching those seasons. That U21 squad was often boosted by senior pros dropping down to help out - Bennett, Evans, Holmes, Wisdom, Shinnie, Forsyth, Martin and Anya all featured in that season.
2017 scholars - JBrown, Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Whittaker
2018 scholars - Cashin, Ebosele, Thompson, Sibley, Stretton
That's excluding a few who had a good impact at youth level too - French, Foster, Minkley, Dixon, McDonald, Archie Brown, and Wilson.
The highlights from the 2019 and 2020 batches (prior to admin impact) being Bardell, Solomon, Cybulski, and Williams. Delap (2019) and Gordon (2020) left prior to being first year scholars and before administration was a real possibility.
I'm not denying there will be in impact from the youngsters we lost during administration, but it's only really a couple from each age group, with the impact below the first year scholars being minimal.
2020 - Williams
2021 - Ryan, Kellyman, Ebiowei
2022 - Sharpe, Scanlon
2023 - Kaba
I can already see the quality of the squads we have left as matching that from the 2019 and 2020 intakes, despite the youngsters who did leave us, with just as many making the grade. 
The current issue I see is the stability of youngsters progressing through. We're missing an entire batch of youngsters from the U21s. That 2020 group was needed to ensure we had enough depth at that level, without the need to fast track U18s through or recruit from outside. We also made a decision to loan out some of the depth we had (Oseni, Nunn, Oduroh). It's 1 or 2 seasons to address that problem.

5-8 years for the academy?!! We have youth internationals in our U18 and U21 squads. I hope it doesn't take 8 years to get them in the first team 😮 

Well they are top of League Two so we definitely can't expect to go there and be able to impose ourselves on the game. 
Notts County are massive and we are simply not equipped to deal with their quality.

Ok, you eight listen up. Don’t concede. Don’t fanny around with it, hit the bloody channels as early as you can. Barks and Laingy what are your jobs? ‘Run fast and cross Boss’. Run fast and cross, good. Got it. Collo you get on the end of it ok. Thanks boys, now remember why we are doing this. Ok. Tactics over.  Sibbo, go get me a coffee. The rest of you go for a run.

Clowes won't have run the club very prudently if we can't afford to sack the manager before the end of his contract.
Managerial sackings are ten a penny in football, surely he would have budgeted for this possibility?

Warne does plenty right, it's just followed by an equal number if not higher number of wrongs. IMO.
I'm not egotistic enough to think that what I believe is the correct thing to do is the correct thing to do or that I know better than a professional manager.
I,  and everyone else here, spout plenty of b******* about football (I'd say on occasion but it's probably most of the time) that doesn't really stack up when faced with the realities of managing a squad of 20/30 footballers (as people and as players), and wouldn't be able to handle all of the little things he has to which mount up to form the main basis of Warne's day to day job.
Even that said, it's weird how it seems more often to be the case that he'll do something which his critics have stated he should do, and positive results follow, than it is he'll make a decision which doesn't seem popular at the time it was made but he ends up being proven correct in his convictions. In fact I'd struggle to name any examples of that, but others may be able.
I'm not sure how that balance plays out with other managers as there's only so much one can remember.
I still have no true desire to see him sacked, I still just want him to improve, and prove I'm wrong, and I still think it's really only some very minor tweaks which would see us right up there at the top of the table this season.
He sometimes makes those tweaks but within a week it's like they never happened and it's utterly maddening!
Long term I think it will take more than tweaks, but I can't ask for everything all at once.

I’ve never heard of a modern day manager say I wanted to give up the middle of the pitch to have more play out wide. I can see why we have no control in matches if that’s his tactics. 

You're no different from the people you criticise. Making the same posts on every thread bemoaning how terrible the forum has become and how negative everyone is... why don't you practice what you preach and actually mix it up a little bit.
Btw, I couldn't disagree more on the idea that your 'mood is what you make of it'. You can't just will yourself out of feeling miserable. 

I'd argue that it hasn't taken long for a lot of fans to lower their expectations too far too quickly to be honest.
We should be the biggest fish in this pond but we're acting like minnows.

Worried about their overload in midfield? The side who hadn't scored a league goal before today had Warne worried? This is us in a nutshell we get worried about teams we are miles better than. Respect them by all means but just play our game and beat them with the superior quality  

Everyone's entitled to an opinion, but did you hear Warne on radio Derby? Literally said he didn't want the ball in midfield. Happily admitted to setting us up to NOT play football. He was worried about their overload in midfield. So decided to kick it over the head of midfield all first half.
He's responsible for that. Absolutely rubbish when that's how he sets up against a team bottom of the league. As if our midfield wouldn't be able to play football against them today. I can't fault the players if that's how they're told to play. They've come out with credit from me for not losing the game, despite being set up to play that anti football.
I find it really frustrating. It's not like we don't have the players to play. Man for man, not many other players in this league would get into our team. I just can't understand it.

Doms bang on the money with asking about Sibley. 
 
Players see through b******* and if you’re saying he’s the best finisher at the club but can’t get a sniff then you’re talking out your arse? 

Radio Derby asked him some good questions. His answers made his whole match plan look worse.