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Dimmu

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Everything posted by Dimmu

  1. I don’t have any idea is he a good player but as I’m very much of an advocate for cognitive behavioural therapy, therefore I hope we sign him. Also, if all of our attacking players would have name with a hyphen, club store would get extra income from printing those names Logical, right?
  2. The church outlawed the sale of indulgences in 1567. Unfortunately, the church is a pioneer in this field.
  3. I'd say it depends on what would be done with the stats. IMO opinion one season is not a great sample but it's the best available as the end of the season usually means radical change to the players. It's not a very useful answer, but that's stats for you.
  4. Obviously, I'm not expecting him to turn prime Robben 🙂 , but I think he has some very good strengths against different sorts of opposition. For those who are just sitting deep, he would offer a longer-range shooting option from the left. For those who prefer to play some football, Sibley is one the best ball carriers we have. He's not a lightning quick but he's not the slowest either.
  5. We don't have options up front, so I'd expect the same lineup as against Burton. Sibley is the only one who might come in, but I'm not sure who he would replace: Elder, Barks, or TJJ. Even though in the long run I hope some from the coaching eventually realize Sibbo's best position will be RW. Just make him watch tons of games from Robben.
  6. I’m deeply worried about our fans media literacy. Unfortunately, I could’ve written this to any of the threads in the transfer forum.
  7. Conor Herohane. Undroppable along Collins and Nelson with his goal contribution every other game. Man who doesn't make mistakes in football or life.
  8. I don't see the problem here. If a player has two poor games, I expect him to be dropped. On the other hand, outfield players get substituted after one bad game. Except for Sibbo, who has about 15 minutes to shine.
  9. FFS. We can't get promoted playing kids? We have the highest average age in League One, so maybe that helps.
  10. If offered, I would have taken three points before the game.
  11. I hope all the people concerned have their fire safety up to date.
  12. We might need to show some patience with this one. Charlton wants more, but can they afford not to sell? Let's see what happens on the last day of January, they might accept an even lower offer than the current one.
  13. I’m not sure does this have an effect on anything but Huddersfield signed Radulovic from HJK last week. Not sure how much money they have to spend, but that deal took maybe around 700K from it.
  14. 16th place in the ratings but my player of the half-season is Collins. He is defending from the front so effectively, that he makes our centrebacks and rest of the defense look like world-beaters. Not too shabby, while scoring once in 1,5 games.
  15. We should consider signing TJJ as a super-sub if contract terms and physical tests are favorable. Unfortunately, it won't solve the problem that we urgently need another striker. If something happens to Collins, we'll be screwed and I believe everyone is aware of that. As for TJJ, he appears to be physically raw and weak, yet his first touch and shot are certainly something to build on.
  16. My favourite parts of the game: Firstly, Thommo’s header and straight afterwards nicking the ball from the goalkeeper. Brilliant press after the whistle to avoid the likely handbags and time wasting. Young man, well done! 👏 Secondly, the passionate team celebration after the third. So much emotion! They don’t know then they are beaten, do they? Thirdly, our mocked skipper having an assist and two second assists. Always in the centre of our positive attacking moves. Bring on Peterborough!
  17. I'm looking forward to this window. My guesses are: OUT: Embleton TJJ IN: Striker, midfielder, and winger. All loanees.
  18. Warne said we need more speed and firepower up front. I could live with that.
  19. This is my method it works pretty well. I do hope people will use it more as it would lead to less quoting of trolls and other behaviorally challenged people.
  20. Thanks for the correction, I must've been thinking of Derby's ppg when typing. Unfortunately, I can't correct it to the original post anymore. 😕
  21. I think we'll do well in the other half of the season as well. This is based on blind hope 😄 Actually, I planned to check what's been the quarterly average point return of Warne's teams during his promotion seasons but analyzing takes too much time as I need also to create some sort of database. As Warne is known for his fitness-based approach, there could be some interesting insights available. Maybe I'll do it later if people are interested in reading such an analysis.
  22. I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations. Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons: Season 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 so far top 2 1.77 1.89 1.96 2.13 2.05 playoff 1.69 1.61 1.8 1.67 1.89 This season, we are averaging 1.89. To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points. To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points. If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough. People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time. There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss. I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately. Season 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 2nd 0.47 0.35 0.77 0.72 0.54 6th 0.21 0.40 0.34 0.24 0.23 We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51. We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11. Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics. Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes. What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season. I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.
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