Paul Warne and the importance of tactical flexibility

[Poynton ram]

1 hour ago, Alty_Ram said:

I was going to ask you whether you saw the reason for the draws as being that you are perhaps just not clinical enough, or that you don't really go for the jugular enough and put games to bed, but looking at the table you are top scorers. So is that based on a handful of thumping wins but then lots of tight games ?

The Wycombe situation is interesting. Not sure we enjoy playing them either but change of manager can derail things so will be interesting to see how they adapt. As for any potential playoff games (if we get there) I'm definitely a bit concerned that our record against the top teams is not particularly convincing. Can't say there is anyone obvious that I'd like to face either. We've won 1 and drawn 1 against Bolton but they were very tight games.

Not sure the home game against Bolton was tight. Score wise it was but thought we totally outplayed them

[Guest]

Just now, Poynton ram said:

Not sure the home game against Bolton was tight. Score wise it was but thought we totally outplayed them

I agree with that completely but in the January window, Bolton did a fair amount of business and since the New Year their League form is P10 W7 D1 L2 F21 A4 Pts 22. Their two defeats were away to us and Wycombe. In the process they have overtaken us and if a team is to catch Plymouth, at the moment I think they are the best bet. I think maybe in the two games against Bolton, which I think we edged and justified the four points we won, we perhaps developed a false sense of superiority about Bolton. They have progressively improved from the start of the season and their improvement continues.

[Guest]

On 27/02/2023 at 11:32, England Ram said:

The only thing I'd change from your article is the date of our last tier 3 scrap. It definitely wasn't 1992 ?

 

Other than that, pretty spot on.

This season's game at Portman Road is the only time so far that we have played Ipswich in a tier 3 fixture. All of the other league encounters have been in tiers 1 and 2.

[TuffLuff]

Hi @EFL View, just wanted to say thanks for posting and felt that was a very good and thought out piece from a more neutral perspective.

Fully agree with your points and to be honest if James Chester is showing any signs of fitness it would not surprise me if Warne tries a 3-5-2 because I think he knows that the current system has been worked out and something needs to change, even if it ends up being a plan B.

Our biggest issue is the transfer embargo and our  lack of real activity in January, whilst our competitors strengthened we have essentially replaced a loan and bought in a back up. It’s similar to last year, although we lost important players then. Warne said post game on Saturday he considers us to have a ‘superior squad’, and I think he is correct on that but that also doesn’t guarantee anything and I think that’s something we need to learn. We really lack league 1 experience truth be told, after a good couple of months we’ve been a bit naive about that.

My prediction at this time, will be that we can make the play offs but will probably fall short of winning them. This means we will probably have to sell Bird, Knight and possibly Sibley + Cashin, but hopefully it’ll provide more funds to put together a side more suited for a League One promotion push rather than our mix of youngsters and experienced heads.

[EFL View]

2 hours ago, Alty_Ram said:

I was going to ask you whether you saw the reason for the draws as being that you are perhaps just not clinical enough, or that you don't really go for the jugular enough and put games to bed, but looking at the table you are top scorers. So is that based on a handful of thumping wins but then lots of tight games ?

The Wycombe situation is interesting. Not sure we enjoy playing them either but change of manager can derail things so will be interesting to see how they adapt. As for any potential playoff games (if we get there) I'm definitely a bit concerned that our record against the top teams is not particularly convincing. Can't say there is anyone obvious that I'd like to face either. We've won 1 and drawn 1 against Bolton but they were very tight games.

We’re sometimes overly reliant upon cut-backs from Burns and Davis into Chaplin and Ladapo but as you correctly point out, we’re top scorers.

The draws are mostly down to defensive lapses. We had an exceptional record at the back end of last season but a lot of that was down to Christian Walton being probably the second best keeper in the division (behind Mike Cooper) but being average for a lot of this year. Another factor is that while Davis is excellent and offers so much going forward at wing-back, we’ve sacrifice a bit of defensive stability since he came into the team. He’s a big upgrade on Dominic Thompson who rarely ventured over halfway so it’s a trade off but he does have his weaknesses. 

[TomTom92]

22 minutes ago, TuffLuff said:

Hi @EFL View, just wanted to say thanks for posting and felt that was a very good and thought out piece from a more neutral perspective.

Fully agree with your points and to be honest if James Chester is showing any signs of fitness it would not surprise me if Warne tries a 3-5-2 because I think he knows that the current system has been worked out and something needs to change, even if it ends up being a plan B.

Our biggest issue is the transfer embargo and our  lack of real activity in January, whilst our competitors strengthened we have essentially replaced a loan and bought in a back up. It’s similar to last year, although we lost important players then. Warne said post game on Saturday he considers us to have a ‘superior squad’, and I think he is correct on that but that also doesn’t guarantee anything and I think that’s something we need to learn. We really lack league 1 experience truth be told, after a good couple of months we’ve been a bit naive about that.

My prediction at this time, will be that we can make the play offs but will probably fall short of winning them. This means we will probably have to sell Bird, Knight and possibly Sibley + Cashin, but hopefully it’ll provide more funds to put together a side more suited for a League One promotion push rather than our mix of youngsters and experienced heads.

Except we can’t use any funds brought in to significantly strengthen. Unless of course the business plan changes. 
 
Not getting promoted puts us and the 4 players futures at risk. Sure, Warne won’t want players who want out sticking around, but we can’t let them go for peanuts just to get rid. 
 
Rather perversely the restrictions put in place to punish the club could actually hold back the development of 4 young pros. Not sure that’s really in the spirit of the EFL and what it should stand for. 
 
I want promotion asap just to avoid the potential stickiness mentioned above.

[MadAmster]

On 27/02/2023 at 12:56, Ellafella said:

Btw some sort of analysis of referee performance in L1 is called for. Some of them are shocking. Greater assessment and accountability clearly required. 

As a ref myself, I'd say most of them are shocking

.

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, Brailsford Ram said:

I agree with that completely but in the January window, Bolton did a fair amount of business and since the New Year their League form is P10 W7 D1 L2 F21 A4 Pts 22. Their two defeats were away to us and Wycombe. In the process they have overtaken us and if a team is to catch Plymouth, at the moment I think they are the best bet. I think maybe in the two games against Bolton, which I think we edged and justified the four points we won, we perhaps developed a false sense of superiority about Bolton. They have progressively improved from the start of the season and their improvement continues.

If Barnsley win their games in hand they get to within 3 points of Plymouth...

[FlyBritishMidland]

On 27/02/2023 at 11:30, Ghost of Clough said:

I would honestly say he's tactically inflexible (formation wise at least).

He came in with the idea of using his favoured 352 and stuck with it, even though it clearly wasn't working, up until he was forced to change. With only 1 fit CB, we moved to 4231. However, once Bird was injured, he didn't hesitate with ditching a CM and going with 2 upfront. It didn't work, yet he tried it again.

I think that’s a bit harsh to say he’s tactically inflexible.  Since he’s been here he’s played 3-5-2 nine times (five of those being his first games), 4-4-2 eight and 4-2-3-1 twelve.  He’s even played 3-5-2 without Chester, Davies and Cashin.

He’s shown he can change when it’s not working, both from his original 3-5-2 and, more recently, from 4-4-2 after the Lincoln draw.

[May Contain Nuts]

Formational changes don't necessarily equate to tactical changes, or the approach to games.

Even when we've had an impressive run of results a lot of what was good has relied on or was helped by the opposition's failure to capitalise on how open our approach is

It isn't a secret how we try to play (and it isn't a bad thing) but it isn't ever going to be particularly nuanced or tricky for a more tactically astute opposition manager to nullify and expose.

That's just the way it is, and to be fair it's the way it is under most managers - Warne has something more than most at this level has hence his success in this league.

The type of games we've struggled in recently have in many ways mirrored the games we struggled in pre-Warne, it was always important to take a wider view on our position.

This isn't a told-you-so post but It's why I refused to get carried away by our results during the unbeaten run.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[FlyBritishMidland]

I think he’s been pretty adaptable in terms of style of play.  We now pass out from the back a bit more, play long ball when needed but still try to get the ball quickly.  He’s adapted his style to suit the squad, rather than getting the squad to play like Rotherham.

[TomTom92]

I don’t think Warne’s some great tactical genius like some managers are. But he knows what he wants from his players and his record speaks for itself. 
 
His best attribute appears to be man management. 
 
Question marks over tactics, transfer nouse and coaching. That’s not me saying he’s bad in these areas but not seen anything to suggest his tactics are Sineoneesque, coaching  Bielsaesque or his transfer nouse Redknappesque.

[EFL View]

6 hours ago, TuffLuff said:

Hi @EFL View, just wanted to say thanks for posting and felt that was a very good and thought out piece from a more neutral perspective.

Fully agree with your points and to be honest if James Chester is showing any signs of fitness it would not surprise me if Warne tries a 3-5-2 because I think he knows that the current system has been worked out and something needs to change, even if it ends up being a plan B.

Our biggest issue is the transfer embargo and our  lack of real activity in January, whilst our competitors strengthened we have essentially replaced a loan and bought in a back up. It’s similar to last year, although we lost important players then. Warne said post game on Saturday he considers us to have a ‘superior squad’, and I think he is correct on that but that also doesn’t guarantee anything and I think that’s something we need to learn. We really lack league 1 experience truth be told, after a good couple of months we’ve been a bit naive about that.

My prediction at this time, will be that we can make the play offs but will probably fall short of winning them. This means we will probably have to sell Bird, Knight and possibly Sibley + Cashin, but hopefully it’ll provide more funds to put together a side more suited for a League One promotion push rather than our mix of youngsters and experienced heads.

Thanks for the reply. I’d agree with you regarding the recruitment. We spent around £2.5m on fees alone, while Plymouth and Bolton both made a number of signings. Wednesday weren’t very active but didn’t need to be, so Derby were left behind a little bit. 

As I’ve said further up the thread though, that shouldn’t be a barrier to reaching the play-offs, with only Wycombe looking capable of mounting a challenge from outside the top six. Whatever happens once there is anybody’s guess. 
 

The challenge is probably what happens if you stay down and have to recruit to replace Cashin and Bird. If you’re still restricted to frees and loans that makes things difficult but I’d imagine your recruitment staff are researching those markets heavily. Clowes seems willing to spend big on wages so there is still the option to offer to take over contracts of out of favour players in higher divisions, similar to the James Collins deal.