Paul Warne and the importance of tactical flexibility

[EFL View]

Hi everyone 

I’m an Ipswich Town fan who has recently begun a blog on substack, writing about the EFL. This week I’ve focussed on Derby’s improvement since the early days of Paul Warne taking over and the importance of the tactical switches he has made.

Any subscriptions would be greatly appreciated - it’s free and will be sent over to your emails whenever I publish articles, usually on a Sunday. 

I’m trying to build up a subscriber base from across the EFL. Likewise, feel free to give me any pointers as you’ll know more about your own club than I do. There’s a link at the bottom of the post to the website.

As well as your views on the article, I’d be interested to know your thoughts on things moving forward? If Warne manages to win promotion while under a transfer ban, that’s probably even more impressive than any of his achievements with Rotherham. I guess the mood is a bit despondent after the recent wobble but all of the top teams have had them this season, except for Sheffield Wednesday. 

To me, the top two and 3rd-6th look fairly set (with the possible exception of Wycombe), so it looks like four big clubs will be the play offs. If wouldn’t surprise me if our fixture on 2nd April isn’t the last. 

Hope you enjoy the article. 

Jacob 

 

https://jacobpowley.substack.com/publish

https://twitter.com/powleyjacob?lang=en

Edited February 26, 2023 by EFL View

[EFL View]

Think I may have sent a private link to my editing by accident instead of the public one. Doesn’t seem to let me change it though. 

This should be the correct one 

https://jacobpowley.substack.com/

[Ellafella]

Good article, intelligent and insightful. Well done. After the disaster at Barnsley the forum is quieter than usual so stick around and I’m sure you’ll get some traction on here. There are some very knowledgeable, insightful and funny posters on here so a good place to discuss and test your hypotheses. You’ll also need a thick skin from time to time as there are some sensitive souls as well as insensitive ones. Good luck Jacob. 

[EFL View]

3 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Good article, intelligent and insightful. Well done. After the disaster at Barnsley the forum is quieter than usual so stick around and I’m sure you’ll get some traction on here. There are some very knowledgeable, insightful and funny posters on here so a good place to discuss and test your hypotheses. You’ll also need a thick skin from time to time as there are some sensitive souls as well as insensitive ones. Good luck Jacob. 

Thanks mate. Fair enough about the quietness after a defeat, we could probably learn from that over at TWTD as we get our fair share of meltdowns! 
 

How confident are you heading into the final couple of months of the season? Like I said, I think the top 6 is probably going to stay as it is and if it is those 4 clubs in the play offs I wouldn’t be able to call it. I think Warne’s experience in these types of games and his tactical flexibility would be a big plus in your column but on the other hand I’d probably be worried about burnout given the size and age profile of the squad. 

It could be anyone’s though and for us it’s nice to know we’re almost certainly going to  have something to play for in May.  

[England Ram]

One of the main factors in the next few weeks as we run out the season will be thinness and age of our depleted squad. Some play this down, but I feel it really will make its mark felt.

A lack of options for those out of form or for a change of pace within games can make all the difference. And some of our older players are looking like they are feeling the strain of a long season already.

Enjoy your time here, we really are a good bunch........mostly.

[Ghost of Clough]

On 26/02/2023 at 00:50, EFL View said:

Hi everyone 

I’m an Ipswich Town fan who has recently begun a blog on substack, writing about the EFL. This week I’ve focussed on Derby’s improvement since the early days of Paul Warne taking over and the importance of the tactical switches he has made.

Any subscriptions would be greatly appreciated - it’s free and will be sent over to your emails whenever I publish articles, usually on a Sunday. 

I’m trying to build up a subscriber base from across the EFL. Likewise, feel free to give me any pointers as you’ll know more about your own club than I do. There’s a link at the bottom of the post to the website.

As well as your views on the article, I’d be interested to know your thoughts on things moving forward? If Warne manages to win promotion while under a transfer ban, that’s probably even more impressive than any of his achievements with Rotherham. I guess the mood is a bit despondent after the recent wobble but all of the top teams have had them this season, except for Sheffield Wednesday. 

To me, the top two and 3rd-6th look fairly set (with the possible exception of Wycombe), so it looks like four big clubs will be the play offs. If wouldn’t surprise me if our fixture on 2nd April isn’t the last. 

Hope you enjoy the article. 

Jacob 

 

https://jacobpowley.substack.com/publish

https://twitter.com/powleyjacob?lang=en

I would honestly say he's tactically inflexible (formation wise at least).

He came in with the idea of using his favoured 352 and stuck with it, even though it clearly wasn't working, up until he was forced to change. With only 1 fit CB, we moved to 4231. However, once Bird was injured, he didn't hesitate with ditching a CM and going with 2 upfront. It didn't work, yet he tried it again.

[England Ram]

The only thing I'd change from your article is the date of our last tier 3 scrap. It definitely wasn't 1992 ?

 

Other than that, pretty spot on.

[Alty_Ram]

For me, I'm not as confident as I was. I think a wobble at some stage was probably inevitable though, but still, it has certainly been a bit deflating. Of course we still have time to put a good run together again, as long as we can dust ourselves down and get over recent disappointing results. A fit again Max Bird will be a big boost but we collectively have been below par of late so it's more than just that.

I think I'd be more worried if we were in the final straight when this sort of poor form can just run you out of contention just at the wrong time. It might still do that of course but at least we have time to put another run together and try to ensure a top 6 finish and we are capable of doing that for sure. We only really have Bird missing from a side that went on a hell of a run so we don't really have much excuse to not put this right. The quality is there but Warne needs to gets the players heads right for the run in.

[EFL View]

Interesting reply, thanks. I remember at the Portman Road game thinking that the formation didn’t suit the players at his disposal, interesting he’s still reluctant to change things again but the fact that he even switched things up at all is more than can be said for a lot of managers at this level.

[EFL View]

17 minutes ago, England Ram said:

The only thing I'd change from your article is the date of our last tier 3 scrap. It definitely wasn't 1992 ?

 

Other than that, pretty spot on.

Thanks, duly amended. I took the info from  Wikipedia, think I got caught out by the renaming of the divisions in 92.

[Ellafella]

46 minutes ago, EFL View said:

Thanks mate. Fair enough about the quietness after a defeat, we could probably learn from that over at TWTD as we get our fair share of meltdowns! 
 

How confident are you heading into the final couple of months of the season? Like I said, I think the top 6 is probably going to stay as it is and if it is those 4 clubs in the play offs I wouldn’t be able to call it. I think Warne’s experience in these types of games and his tactical flexibility would be a big plus in your column but on the other hand I’d probably be worried about burnout given the size and age profile of the squad. 

It could be anyone’s though and for us it’s nice to know we’re almost certainly going to  have something to play for in May.  

You are spot on; Burnout is a major concern for me & tomorrow’s home fixture is a key litmus test of our bounce-back-ability. I’m worried that our constraints imposed by EFL and our small, age-skewed squad will tell and we may fizzle out now. If Cheltenham follow Wycombe & Barnsley’s approach tomorrow we may struggle again. 
Key issue for Warne & staff is stick or change. We are missing Bird’s presence in midfield. I was hopeful of play-offs but not so sure now. Also our away points total versus top 6 sides is not great & we still have Wednesday Argyle and P’boro to play away. So, a testing time and odds now swinging against us. 

[Ellafella]

Btw some sort of analysis of referee performance in L1 is called for. Some of them are shocking. Greater assessment and accountability clearly required. 

[EFL View]

22 minutes ago, Alty_Ram said:

For me, I'm not as confident as I was. I think a wobble at some stage was probably inevitable though, but still, it has certainly been a bit deflating. Of course we still have time to put a good run together again, as long as we can dust ourselves down and get over recent disappointing results. A fit again Max Bird will be a big boost but we collectively have been below par of late so it's more than just that.

I think I'd be more worried if we were in the final straight when this sort of poor form can just run you out of contention just at the wrong time. It might still do that of course but at least we have time to put another run together and try to ensure a top 6 finish and we are capable of doing that for sure. We only really have Bird missing from a side that went on a hell of a run so we don't really have much excuse to not put this right. The quality is there but Warne needs to gets the players heads right for the run in.

I’d agree with that. It’s probably better for the players’ mindset to know they’ll be in the play offs for a few weeks beforehand rather than expend lots of energy chasing 3rd, missing out and then running out of steam during the play offs. MK last season are probably the clearest example of that. Especially with the age profile of the squad, having the opportunity to rest a few will be useful.
 

It’s interesting how the narrative changes so quickly though, a few weeks back our fans were pretty resigned to being overtaken by Derby and potentially even dropping out of the play offs but after two wins against bottom four sides there’s now cautious optimism we can break into the automatics again. For what it’s worth, I don’t think we will but it shows how everything can switch in such a short space of time.

[Alty_Ram]

59 minutes ago, EFL View said:

Interesting reply, thanks. I remember at the Portman Road game thinking that the formation didn’t suit the players at his disposal, interesting he’s still reluctant to change things again but the fact that he even switched things up at all is more than can be said for a lot of managers at this level.

It's a tricky one isn't it ? To a degree it's "Damned if you do, damned if you don't". Make no changes and lose you are inflexible and stubborn. Make changes and it doesn't work and you are a tinkerer who doesn't know your best team/formation.

[Alty_Ram]

47 minutes ago, EFL View said:

I’d agree with that. It’s probably better for the players’ mindset to know they’ll be in the play offs for a few weeks beforehand rather than expend lots of energy chasing 3rd, missing out and then running out of steam during the play offs. MK last season are probably the clearest example of that. Especially with the age profile of the squad, having the opportunity to rest a few will be useful.
 

It’s interesting how the narrative changes so quickly though, a few weeks back our fans were pretty resigned to being overtaken by Derby and potentially even dropping out of the play offs but after two wins against bottom four sides there’s now cautious optimism we can break into the automatics again. For what it’s worth, I don’t think we will but it shows how everything can switch in such a short space of time.

100%. It only takes a couple of duff results and it all changes. Likewise (as you say) get a couple of results against relegation strugglers and you've started the charge for the automatics. Such small margins in this league...

We've not become awful all of a sudden but our performances have definitely dipped a bit and we're losing or getting nothing from games that we were previously winning routinely during our excellent run.

A lot of this is nerve and determination now, not just footballing ability.

[Ghost of Clough]

30 minutes ago, Alty_Ram said:

It's a tricky one isn't it ? To a degree it's "Damned if you do, damned if you don't". Make no changes and lose you are inflexible and stubborn. Make changes and it doesn't work and you are a tinkerer who doesn't know your best team/formation.

What were our results like prior to changing to 4 at the back?
How many games unbeaten, playing 4231?
What have results been like since we first deviated from 4231?

[Alty_Ram]

53 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

What were our results like prior to changing to 4 at the back?
How many games unbeaten, playing 4231?
What have results been like since we first deviated from 4231?

I don't know without looking it up but I presume that you do and I presume also that it is quite a stark contrast. However, my point was intended as a very much more general one about football management rather than Warne and DCFC. As a manager it seems that whatever your approach there will be some people who will criticise you. The only way to avoid that is to win games relentlessly, but then again there will still probably be some all-knowing fans who will say that you should have won those games by more.

Personally I am of the opinion that you change as little as possible even  if you lose a key player so ideally switch in the nearest like-for-like player that has been working with the formation and tactics that you have been playing rather than change how you play. There will also come a situation though where a manager may feel that the remaining players available to them will better fit a different approach. It needs someone with more coaching badges and experience than me to make that call I guess.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Alty_Ram

[EFL View]

7 hours ago, Alty_Ram said:

100%. It only takes a couple of duff results and it all changes. Likewise (as you say) get a couple of results against relegation strugglers and you've started the charge for the automatics. Such small margins in this league...

We've not become awful all of a sudden but our performances have definitely dipped a bit and we're losing or getting nothing from games that we were previously winning routinely during our excellent run.

A lot of this is nerve and determination now, not just footballing ability.

Very much a case of holding your nerve. From a Town perspective, our downfall has been draws. We’ve only lost 4 in the league and they’ve all been by 1 goal margins so I can see our play off games being cagey. Not sure which of the other teams we’d be most suited to playing though. I’d want to avoid Wycombe if they sneak in, although I doubt they will.

[Magicman]

Can see a few changes tomorrow night missing the third striker option. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Magicman

[Alty_Ram]

13 hours ago, EFL View said:

Very much a case of holding your nerve. From a Town perspective, our downfall has been draws. We’ve only lost 4 in the league and they’ve all been by 1 goal margins so I can see our play off games being cagey. Not sure which of the other teams we’d be most suited to playing though. I’d want to avoid Wycombe if they sneak in, although I doubt they will.

I was going to ask you whether you saw the reason for the draws as being that you are perhaps just not clinical enough, or that you don't really go for the jugular enough and put games to bed, but looking at the table you are top scorers. So is that based on a handful of thumping wins but then lots of tight games ?

The Wycombe situation is interesting. Not sure we enjoy playing them either but change of manager can derail things so will be interesting to see how they adapt. As for any potential playoff games (if we get there) I'm definitely a bit concerned that our record against the top teams is not particularly convincing. Can't say there is anyone obvious that I'd like to face either. We've won 1 and drawn 1 against Bolton but they were very tight games.