The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[maxjam]

26 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

We agree on something! However even the ONS stats did not include the large numbers of people who died early in the pandemic with untested and undiagnosed COVID. Most of them in care homes. For some inexplicable reason there was sudden unexpected spike of people dying of alzheimers and dementia in April and May 2020. How could that possibly be?

Some info on that here;

https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-09/Worst-hit-Dementia-during-coronavirus-report.pdf

[ariotofmyown]

42 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Because you stated that he provided a false presentation of the data, whereas wha he actually did was add a note of caution ?

If you want to debunk the data, go ahead but lets not put words in the mouth of a guy that 'has won awards from the Royal Statistical Society and United Nations for the presentation of data.'  Sorry I meant charlatan ?

It seems like he added a reasonable note of caution, which drives some rather huge leaps of conclusion. Maybe he should perhaps provide rather more context as I assume he knows how his stats could be mis-interpreted (I'm assuming he doesn't but haven't read much of his stuff. Tweets don't seem like the best way to explain the nuances of statistics, but are a great way to get noticed!)

[maxjam]

6 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

It seems like he added a reasonable note of caution, which drives some rather huge leaps of conclusion. Maybe he should perhaps provide rather more context as I assume he knows how his stats could be mis-interpreted (I'm assuming he doesn't but haven't read much of his stuff. Tweets don't seem like the best way to explain the nuances of statistics, but are a great way to get noticed!)

He adds a little more context if you read the entire thread, amongst others there are these;

But yeah I would agree that twitter isn't the best medium, unfortunately its one of the most popular and if you're a freelance data analyst looking for work, its free advertising.

[Gone]

38 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

So not much to go on anecdote.  

Well actually your wrong again (seems to happen quite a lot) because in my little circle I know of 3 cases where this has happened. 3 is not a huge sample size I agree, but in my little world that’s a hell of a lot, extrapolate that with all the recorded deaths and I think you’ll find my 50% over stated is a hell of a lot closer to your numbers. 

[PistoldPete]

14 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Well actually your wrong again (seems to happen quite a lot) because in my little circle I know of 3 cases where this has happened. 3 is not a huge sample size I agree, but in my little world that’s a hell of a lot, extrapolate that with all the recorded deaths and I think you’ll find my 50% over stated is a hell of a lot closer to your numbers. 

It isn't much to go on becasue there is no way of verifying even your sample leave alone any proper basis for extrapolating your sample of 3 into 150,000 recorded deaths. 

[PistoldPete]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

He didn't make a false presentation of it, he said the following in the tweet;

'But deaths are those with a +ve test so will rise. More are in hospital with it but not because of it so deaths data treat with caution.'

We don't have accurate data on how many people caught or discovered they had covid in hospital. Neither do we have the data on how many of those people went on to die from covid therefore stating that we need to treat the data with caution is the correct thing to do. 

Your interpretation of his data seems flawed and biased at best.

Furthermore as we've seen with omicron the vaccinated are just as likely to catch and spread covid as the unnvaccinated, therefore mandatory vaccination for anyone including hospital staff will not prevent transmission as both the latest data from the UK and this Danish study (bought to you courtesy of your favourite data analyst) show us;

 

 

So quoting proprtions with the virus but not quoting the stats for those who have been jabbed.

 

Here they are since Jenkins didnt bother to add that minor detail.

https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts

 

52% of the entire population of Denmark  (not just over 12s) have had their third dose. And yet people with three jabs account for only 8.5%  of Omicron cases (and 2.4% of other variants?), assuming that's what they mean by "revaccinated". And this is supposed to be his argument against vaccination?  

And another point you have proved, how Jenkins makes selective quoting of stats, and misses out the important stuff.

 

 

[G STAR RAM]

3 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

So it seems like the fact here is that 40% of people testing positive for Covid caught it in hospital or were not yet positive when admitted. From this stat, lots of conclusions have been jumped too. 

I'd like to know:

What % of Covid deaths come from this 40% who caught it in hospital.

Of this 40%, what were the death rates by vaccination status and age. It could turn out that going into hospital for something else whilst unvaccinated is very risky.

What was the survival chances of the 40% who were already in hospital. Did Covid finish them off a few days early, or were they in for a routine operation.

What is the vaccination status of people admitted for Covid by age range. Imagine if it turned out that a much larger proportion of spreading in hospital was done by unvaccinated people?

This is the sort of thing we would all like to know.

Do you think the data is not available or is there a reason for not disclosing it.

Not sure how you would prove who is spreading the virus but the huge numbers coming from general society dont appear to point to it being just the unvaccinated spreading it does it?

[PistoldPete]

5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

This is the sort of thing we would all like to know.

Do you think the data is not available or is there a reason for not disclosing it.

Not sure how you would prove who is spreading the virus but the huge numbers coming from general society dont appear to point to it being just the unvaccinated spreading it does it?

Well here I would actually tend to agree they could be hushing up how much of the COVID is being spread in the hospital. And yes it wil be spread by vaccinated and unvaccinated people.  

[Eddie]

47 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

It isn't much to go on becasue there is no way of verifying even your sample leave alone any proper basis for extrapolating your sample of 3 into 150,000 recorded deaths. 

The key statistic with respect to the number of recorded Covid deaths has always been its proximity to the figures for excess deaths in comparison to the average over previous years. Now, almost two years in, the excess deaths are within 1% of the 'official' Covid deaths and consistently refuse to waver.

If it's not Covid-19, as some will argue, that has killed 150,000 more people in the last two years over and above the 'expected' mortality figures, then it's something else, something completely unknown - and that's a far scarier prospect.

[G STAR RAM]

Just now, PistoldPete said:

Well here I would actually tend to agree they could be hushing up how much of the COVID is being spread in the hospital. And yes it wil be spread by vaccinated and unvaccinated people.  

And you think mandatory vaccination is the way to solve this...

[G STAR RAM]

3 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

OK I will answer the question. We do need to treat the deaths data with caution. The daily COVID deaths figures on the Government website is really only of use to show trends on a daily basis.

The actual deaths from COVID are collated by the ONS sometime later, based on what is recorded on the death certificate. From these ONS has been able to establish the actual cause of death. In the majority of cases , if COVID is mentioned on the death certificate then COVID was found to be the actual cause of death in 90% of cases, so 90% of reported deaths died from COVID not just with it.

So for that reason the daily data may overstate the COVID deaths by around 10%. On the other hand, the data doesn't measure deaths in private homes, it doesn't measure  deaths of people who were not tested (not such a problem now but it was a big problem early in the pandemic) , it doesn't include people who died of COVID more than 28 days after a positive test, for example people who were discharged then have a relapse. So overall the daily stats will typically understate the number of COVID deaths not overstate them.      

So you're happy to 'debunk' someone relaying facts and then on the other hand make guesses about 10s of thousands of deaths with absolutely no evidence to back it up?

[maxjam]

On 08/01/2022 at 09:56, G STAR RAM said:

To be fair thats not a very good comparison as I think its most likely that Covid was already running amok in this country by then.

I think a comparison to 2019 would give a better picture.

Anecdotally, I heard on the 29th December that there were more people in Royal Derby Hospital ICU that had tried to take their own lives (2), than there were Covid patients (1). Second hand information though so I have no idea if true or not.

 

[G STAR RAM]

2 hours ago, i-Ram said:

Well, perhaps. What do the experts think? - @Eddie @Archied @G STAR RAM @Mostyn6

I think the health experts have said from the beginning that excess deaths would be the true measure of the effect of the pandemic.

Whether they factored into this that hospitals and GPs would be pretty much inaccessible to the general public for 2 years I have no idea.

Any time I have tried to use my GP over the last 5 or 6 years its been impossible to get an appointment but now I find myself receiving text messages from them inviting me to go in for my booster, wonder how that has come to pass?

[maxjam]

35 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

So quoting proprtions with the virus but not quoting the stats for those who have been jabbed.

 

Here they are since Jenkins didnt bother to add that minor detail.

https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts

 

52% of the entire population of Denmark  (not just over 12s) have had their third dose. And yet people with three jabs account for only 8.5%  of Omicron cases (and 2.4% of other variants?), assuming that's what they mean by "revaccinated". And this is supposed to be his argument against vaccination?  

And another point you have proved, how Jenkins makes selective quoting of stats, and misses out the important stuff.

 

 

What?  He is using the exact same chart the Danish Govt provided that clearly states what percentage of single, double, boosted (or as the Danes call it revaccinated) people have caught Omicron and he adds the link to the study in his first reply to the tweet.

 

[PistoldPete]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So you're happy to 'debunk' someone relaying facts and then on the other hand make guesses about 10s of thousands of deaths with absolutely no evidence to back it up?

They are not guesses. Again if you read what I have written you will see I refer to ONS stats not the daily data. On your other point, the vaccinaton stats are clear if you are vaccinated you reduce the risk of catching the virus. You do not remove the risk altogether, but any medical professional should be looking to reduce the risk of harm to their patients.  

[G STAR RAM]

1 minute ago, PistoldPete said:

They are not guesses. Again if you read what I have written you will see I refer to ONS stats not the daily data. On your other point, the vaccinaton stats are clear if you are vaccinated you reduce the risk of catching the virus. You do not remove the risk altogether, but any medical professional should be looking to reduce the risk of harm to their patients.  

Youve said that you think Covid deaths are understated by at least 10%, thats complete guesswork backed up with no evidence. 

The vacciation stats that you have even referenced in the Denmark study completely debunk your second point...

[PistoldPete]

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

What?  He is using the exact same chart the Danish Govt provided that clearly states what percentage of single, double, boosted (or as the Danes call it revaccinated) people have caught Omicron and he adds the link to the study in his first reply to the tweet.

 

Once again you don't read what I write. He's given "revaccinated"  people  represent only 2.5% .. of "other variant" cases and  8.4% of omicron cases  but hasnt said that "revaccinated " people represent  51.2% of the total population.  If he had it would prove the point that the booster jab is very protective, but that's the opposite narrative to what he wants.     

[PistoldPete]

5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Youve said that you think Covid deaths are understated by at least 10%, thats complete guesswork backed up with no evidence. 

The vacciation stats that you have even referenced in the Denmark study completely debunk your second point...

And I've said its from ONS study of death certificates.  And As above I  have compeltely debunked Jenkins point on vaccination. 

[maxjam]

13 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

Once again you don't read what I write. He's given "revaccinated"  people  represent only 2.5% .. of "other variant" cases and  8.4% of omicron cases  but hasnt said that "revaccinated " people represent  51.2% of the total population.  If he had it would prove the point that the booster jab is very protective, but that's the opposite narrative to what he wants.     

I read what you wrote. 

18% unvaccinated also only represent 9% of omicron cases, he hasn't highlighted that fact either. 

Neither did he highlight the boosted are 3-4x as likely to get omicron than previous variants of covid.

In a tweet of limited characters he simply stated that 91% of omicron was in the vaccinated, posted the official chart and linked to the study.  More than enough imo, but what do I know I'm not an award winning data analyst that amongst other roles used to work as Head of Health data for the ONS...

EDIT:

He hasn't given produced the chart to show anything, he copied the chart from the official Danish report - which was how they chose to show omicron infection rates across their society.

Edited January 9, 2022 by maxjam

[maxjam]

3 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

And I've said its from ONS study of death certificates.  And As above I  have compeltely debunked Jenkins point on vaccination. 

We have wildy different views as to what constitutes 'completed debunked'.