Starship and a Human city on Mars

[Day]

Feels like one of those things where both sides could put forward convincing arguments for and against this happening.

Think it would be foolish to say never.

Think it’s safe to say not in our life time though.

I won’t lay into Elon here, will just say he’s wildly optimistic in his timescales. Feel like he would be more credible if he came out and admitted it might not be in his lifetime, whilst taking credit for the research and development to make it happen one day.

This is the opinions of someone way out his depth on space matters.

[TomBustler1884]

Humans will walk on Mars in our lifetime.

The race to the moon isn't to get one over on other countries. It's about securing the best sites for landing and launching rockets, and for mining lunar resources.

[Carl Sagan]

On 15/09/2024 at 14:12, Day said:

Feels like one of those things where both sides could put forward convincing arguments for and against this happening.

Think it would be foolish to say never.

Think it’s safe to say not in our life time though.

I won’t lay into Elon here, will just say he’s wildly optimistic in his timescales. Feel like he would be more credible if he came out and admitted it might not be in his lifetime, whilst taking credit for the research and development to make it happen one day.

This is the opinions of someone way out his depth on space matters.

Humans will be on Mars in the 2030s. Probably the first landing will be near the start of the 2030s, but permanent habitation won't happen until towards the end of the decade. But by 2050 it will have ramped up a lot and there'll be a few thousand people living there.

[SaintRam]

Pre-season rumours of the NFC South's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

A shame the Panthers didn't get the memo, though.

[SaintRam]

1 hour ago, SaintRam said:

Pre-season rumours of the NFC South's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

A shame the Panthers didn't get the memo, though.

Obviously, this is in the wrong thread 🤣

[Stive Pesley]

7 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Humans will be on Mars in the 2030s. Probably the first landing will be near the start of the 2030s, but permanent habitation won't happen until towards the end of the decade. But by 2050 it will have ramped up a lot and there'll be a few thousand people living there.

Words this post could have started with 

"In my opinion..."

"I'd like to think that.."

"My best guess is that..."

"If all goes according to plan then..."

To make an absolute statement on such a topic as this is laughable. 

 

[TigerTedd]

10 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Humans will be on Mars in the 2030s. Probably the first landing will be near the start of the 2030s, but permanent habitation won't happen until towards the end of the decade. But by 2050 it will have ramped up a lot and there'll be a few thousand people living there.

Saved. Pinned. Screenshotted. Etc. 

[TigerTedd]

Having faith in things that’ll happen in the future is like having faith in a religion. 

if I say god exists, a scientist will say ‘prove it’, and religious person would say ‘no, you’ve got to disprove it.’

likewise, if I say we’ll be an interplanetary species in 500 years time, you could ask me to prove it, but I could ask you to prove me wrong. We’ll all be long dead before there’s a definitive answer, and no one will really win the argument. 

to to predict within our life times is bold. All very exciting if it comes to pass. But there aren’t many places to hide if it doesn’t. 

[ketteringram]

On 15/09/2024 at 22:02, TomBustler1884 said:

Humans will walk on Mars in our lifetime.

The race to the moon isn't to get one over on other countries. It's about securing the best sites for landing and launching rockets, and for mining lunar resources.

Whose lifetime? 

Personally don't think it would happen in Elon Musks lifetime, even if he was a two year old today.

[TomBustler1884]

2 hours ago, ketteringram said:

Whose lifetime? 

Personally don't think it would happen in Elon Musks lifetime, even if he was a two year old today.

Within the next 50 years.

[Highgate]

16 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Humans will be on Mars in the 2030s. Probably the first landing will be near the start of the 2030s, but permanent habitation won't happen until towards the end of the decade. But by 2050 it will have ramped up a lot and there'll be a few thousand people living there.

A few thousand people there by 2050 sounds more like sci-fi to me. Musk said a million by 2050 at one stage I believe. Both are wildly optimistic I'd say. 

Space X's tech is impressive so far and I think the project is a worthwhile one in the long term.  But trying to achieve those time frames would just get people killed unnecessarily.  

There is no rush to get to Mars, it's not going anywhere. 

[Carl Sagan]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

A few thousand people there by 2050 sounds more like sci-fi to me. Musk said a million by 2050 at one stage I believe. Both are wildly optimistic I'd say. 

Space X's tech is impressive so far and I think the project is a worthwhile one in the long term.  But trying to achieve those time frames would just get people killed unnecessarily.  

There is no rush to get to Mars, it's not going anywhere. 

The (ambitious) plan is to have a million Humans living on Mars by the end of the century. But the point is technology doesn't stand still, and doesn't progress in isolation. Instead of an old-fashioned shipyard, Musk is building a spaceship-yard in Texas with a view to churning out a Starship a week. Each of these will be able to carry dozens of people at a time. And every 26 months when the launch window comes around, they will gather in orbit and the fleet will head off to the red planet. But then some of those Starships will return, while hundreds more are built, so the next window the fleet will be bigger still, and so on. 

Meanwhile, progress in AI and automation continues apace. For instance Tesla is now the global leader in humanoid robots, as all his work is ultimately geared towards making us multiplanetary, so a huge autonomous workforce will also head to Mars. Starlink will give the colony internet. The boring company will aid in the construction of habitats. The successors to Cybertruck will crisscross the dunes. It's quite possible that getting on for a thousand Starships will be going in the final two or three windows of the 2040s.

Keep the faith!

[Highgate]

5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

The (ambitious) plan is to have a million Humans living on Mars by the end of the century. But the point is technology doesn't stand still, and doesn't progress in isolation. Instead of an old-fashioned shipyard, Musk is building a spaceship-yard in Texas with a view to churning out a Starship a week. Each of these will be able to carry dozens of people at a time. And every 26 months when the launch window comes around, they will gather in orbit and the fleet will head off to the red planet. But then some of those Starships will return, while hundreds more are built, so the next window the fleet will be bigger still, and so on. 

Meanwhile, progress in AI and automation continues apace. For instance Tesla is now the global leader in humanoid robots, as all his work is ultimately geared towards making us multiplanetary, so a huge autonomous workforce will also head to Mars. Starlink will give the colony internet. The boring company will aid in the construction of habitats. The successors to Cybertruck will crisscross the dunes. It's quite possible that getting on for a thousand Starships will be going in the final two or three windows of the 2040s.

Keep the faith!

I think 'faith' might be exactly the right word there. There seems to be a few too many true believers working on this project for my liking. I'll have to remain deeply skeptical about the feasibility of the timescales being set by Musk et al.  Particularly when considering the unsuitability of the human body itself to life in such an environment.

Only time will tell I guess.  

[Stive Pesley]

9 hours ago, Highgate said:

I'll have to remain deeply skeptical about the feasibility of the timescales being set by Musk

You only have to look at his track record of keeping to the dates he has stated in the past

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/27/elon-musk-spacex-mars-colony

In 2016 he was giving it the big one about manned missions starting in 2022. It's no wonder he is always so quick to blame regulators for any delays. It couldn't possibly be him who is a massive Billy Bulls**t 😂

[Highgate]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

You only have to look at his track record of keeping to the dates he has stated in the past

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/27/elon-musk-spacex-mars-colony

In 2016 he was giving it the big one about manned missions starting in 2022. It's no wonder he is always so quick to blame regulators for any delays. It couldn't possibly be him who is a massive Billy Bulls**t 😂

I can't help but feel Space X would be a much better company is Musk said nothing at all, except maybe a vague mission statement about reaching Mars in the future.  They have made genuinely laudable and exciting developments in rocket/spacecraft technology so far, and there is no reason why they can't continue to develop.  

However these urgent and I would say implausible missions timelines appear completely counterproductive to me and as you say they will probably keep just being pushed back. This all seems to be underpinned with something like a messianic zeal, like the fate of the humanity depends on this mission for some reason and right now! That's all just a bit weird and unsettling to me. 

If we take care of this planet, it should be good for another couple of billion years...