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Contracts Expiring in July - Opportunities and Risks


Sheikh n Bake

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Marriott is the best finisher we have at the club. He can also finish in pressure games. In terms of finishing Waghorn has missed a bag load of chances this season and his conversion rate on peno's can't be more than 3 in 5. Given the choice I would shift him on before Marriott.  Martin is ok,not as good as he was and has missed as much if not more time than Marriott with health issues and injury over the last few years.

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5 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

For Derby?!

That isn't really the point in question . Marriott hasn't played as many for Derby so that would be hard to compare. Martin for example has 11 goals in his last 60 odd games for Derby. Marriott averages more. Marriott was twice as effective at League one level.   You would have to wait until Marriott has played the exact number of games for Derby too answer an exacting question such as this . Consider Martin has 24 goals in his last 130 games t this level . Martin was a great player for two and a bit seasons at Derby . Now he's useful .

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18 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Lol. You upset cos that applies to Marriott! ?

Perhaps leave it here.  You asked a question . I gave you an answer.  You clearly don't like it .  I haven't actually asked any questions. That big orange thing in the sky has been there for millennia, it didn't appear when Chris first opened his arse.  More players and better players have turned out for Derby. Soz

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1 minute ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

More players and better players have turned out for Derby. Soz

None of them are Marriott! ? ?

 

2 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Marriott is the best finisher we have at the club.

Is what you stated but back up with no facts showing he is. I asked you to and then you went off on one. 

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Just now, RoyMac5 said:

None of them are Marriott! ? ?

 

Is what you stated but back up with no facts showing he is. I asked you to and then you went off on one. 

I gave you goal stats to games  . How did I go off on one .  Then you asked for a  bit further analysis based on data  . You got it, with a caveat, re games played for Derby being unequal . Then you threw a few comments back with no reason, so got some back . Now your continuing .

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2 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I gave you goal stats to games  . How did I go off on one .  Then you asked for a  bit further analysis based on data  . You got it, with a caveat, re games played for Derby being unequal . Then you threw a few comments back with no reason, so got some back . Now your continuing .

That's the point. Marriott plays for Derby, how is he our best finisher?

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32 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Stats to prove this please.

@Ghost of Cloughyou're good with stats, any idea?

I've got these figures from WhoScored, and can't get any figures for cup games, so this is just in the league, but...
Purely talking in terms of goals scored as a percentage of total shots taken:
This season he has a conversion rate of 4.9% (2 goals from 41 shots), which is incredibly low; Waghorn's is a slightly underachieving 14.1% (12 goals from 85 shots); Martin's is a very high 32.1% (9 goals from 28 shots)
Last season Marriott's rate was a more respectable 17.5% (10 goals from 57 shots), though that is worse than Waghorn over the same period (18.8%, 9 goals from 48 shots)

The high scoring clinical finishers in this league, players like Ollie Watkins and Lewis Grabban, have conversion rates around 22%, though it should be noted that this isn't the sole mark of a good frontman; top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic has a conversion rate of "just" 17.6%, but has taken more shots than any player in the league, in large part because he's created these chances with his all-round play, recording a shot every 23.3 minutes, whereas Watkins, for example, records one every 34.2 minutes.

Looking at it from this perspective, Marriott's shots per minute ratio is higher than our other options, and at a rate not far off Mitrovic's:
This season, Marriott has recorded a shot once every 26.7 minutes. This is more frequent than Waghorn (once every 32.6 minutes) and Martin (once every 51.8 minutes).

So, I would say Marriott isn't particularly clinical, at least in terms of conversion rate, when compared to other strikers in the league, but this isn't the sole measure of a good striker and he has demonstrated other facets of his play that have meant he has had periods of scoring regularly (e.g., the 9 goals in 15 games he scored between Man Utd away and Norwich away last season, where his conversion rate was still around 17.5% but while maintaining a very good chance creation rate), so I can see why a lot of fans rate him highly. If he can play like he did during that period over a full season, he could easily get over 20 goals, like he did at Peterborough, but it's just whether we can get him at that level over a full season, in terms of both chance creation and chance conversion.

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4 minutes ago, JfR said:

This season he has a conversion rate of 4.9% (2 goals from 41 shots), which is incredibly low; Waghorn's is a slightly underachieving 14.1% (12 goals from 85 shots); Martin's is a very high 32.1% (9 goals from 28 shots)

 

4 minutes ago, JfR said:

This season, Marriott has recorded a shot once every 26.7 minutes. This is more frequent than Waghorn (once every 32.6 minutes) and Martin (once every 51.8 minutes).

Lots of shots not many goals. 

 

8 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Marriott plays for Derby, how is he our best finisher?

Well, he's not.

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3 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

 

Lots of shots not many goals. 

 

Well, he's not.

This season, Marriott has recorded a shot once every 26.7 minutes. This is more frequent than Waghorn (once every 32.6 minutes) and Martin (once every 51.8 minutes).

We could go on like this all night . Perhaps you can find a five year old to banter with. I'm off to count my pubes it's more interesting .

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2 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

This season, Marriott has recorded a shot once every 26.7 minutes. This is more frequent than Waghorn (once every 32.6 minutes) and Martin (once every 51.8 minutes).

You said 'FINISHER'. 

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