Gone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, BIllyD said: That's great, I don't care about your risk (I mean the nicest possible way ?) though. I am however concerned that if you do get it and end up in hospital then you would take a bed, so hopefully Boris takes your kind offer into consideration but looks at it a bit more scientifically ? The probability is low of someone my age and health getting seriously ill, so chances are I wouldn’t take up a bed. Hence when looking at it scientifically using a risk assessment model there is no need to keep us under restrictions until the <50 age group have been vaccinated. It’s not reasonably practical to stay with restrictions, the cost/damage/impact far out weighs the risks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, TexasRam said: The probability is low of someone my age and health getting seriously ill, so chances are I wouldn’t take up a bed. Hence when looking at it scientifically using a risk assessment model there is no need to keep us under restrictions until the <50 age group have been vaccinated. It’s not reasonably practical to stay with restrictions, the cost/damage/impact far out weighs the risks? Probability based on what ? Bearing in mind we have only around 4K ICU beds and 120k others it doesn't take that many to overrun our system. The key stat that the government will be looking at is ICU beds, which is being taken up by your age group, unfortunately the higher risk doesn't get to go there or stay there if they do ? Thars why it is key that the R number is at a certain point and why the ICU is a key factor not when you decide if you are going to take the risk or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, maxjam said: TBH I don't think we'll see another lockdown unless there is a particularly nasty mutation. I think its more a case of optics and finances. The Govt will have to work out what number of deaths the twitterati and media are happy with and the cost to the NHS treating those still waiting for a vaccine after the spring against the benefits of opening up the economy fully again. I don't think we will either, unless our health system gets overrun as you say. I don't see a variation of the virus being a risk to be honest, I think the vaccine covers that. The only thing I see is that R rate, control that, open up in the warmer months, get more vaccines out and we should be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Probability based on what ? Bearing in mind we have only around 4K ICU beds and 120k others it doesn't take that many to overrun our system. The key stat that the government will be looking at is ICU beds, which is being taken up by your age group, unfortunately the higher risk doesn't get to go there or stay there if they do ? Thars why it is key that the R number is at a certain point and why the ICU is a key factor not when you decide if you are going to take the risk or not. Probability based on being of a certain age, not over weight, non smoker and healthy. Lockdowns where there to protect the vulnerable and elderly, that’s been done now with vacations. I want the choice now to take my own risk as others won’t be at risk due to me. Which was always the argument especially on here, or are we moving those goalposts again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Probability based on being of a certain age, not over weight, non smoker and healthy. Lockdowns where there to protect the vulnerable and elderly, that’s been done now with vacations. I want the choice now to take my own risk as others won’t be at risk due to me. Which was always the argument especially on here, or are we moving those goalposts again? Whose argument ? Yours maybe, but mine has always been lockdowns are here to protect everyone and shouldn't be removed until that point is met. The probability is that you will survive btw that is very high, not that you won't get ill with it, that is a lower and is when you are a risk to others ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Whose argument ? Yours maybe, but mine has always been lockdowns are here to protect everyone and shouldn't be removed until that point is met. The probability is that you will survive btw that is very high, not that you won't get ill with it, that is a lower and is when you are a risk to others ? Most people when you state you are happy to take your own risk. What others would I be a risk to? Those at risk have had or will have the Jab come May/June. So again why keep restrictions in place for a age group who don’t need protecting? It makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Most people when you state you are happy to take your own risk. What others would I be a risk to? Those at risk have had or will have the Jab come May/June. So again why keep restrictions in place for a age group who don’t need protecting? It makes no sense I think we are going around in circles so I'm going to gracefully bow out. If you read my posts back again you may see what I'm saying, I doubt it, but just to be clear I'm not saying the age group needs protecting en masse, but if you lift the restrictions today or next week for example, then this group is the one that's left, that could bring the health sector down to its knees. I'm not saying don't lift the restrictions, let's be clear on that, I'm also not saying anything about managing your own risk, not sure where that has come from ?♂️ I'm saying once then numbers are acceptable, is the KPI to doing it. Which is what the government are doing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 hours ago, Sith Happens said: if there was a reason to keep us in lockdown forever its bloody cricket ??? It keeps us old ones off the streets. If we're at the cricket, we're not crashing our cars into crowds at Farmers' Markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 hours ago, FindernRam said: plenty of social distancing there in normal times. Indeed. Average crowd at a midweek County Championship game might be 300 or so - of which most of us are pensioners. We do tolerate @sage now and again, but he has to bring beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Brilliant from Charles Walker, absolutely spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, TexasRam said: Brilliant from Charles Walker, absolutely spot on Charles Walker seems like a really clued up, down to earth kinda guy. I posted this a while back and make no apologies for posting it again; Lockdown has largely been easy for me, gotta admit I'm going a bit stir-crazy now the end is sight, but I live in a nice house, with a big garden and have my wife and kids to keep me company. I can't imagine spending the past year cooped up in a small flat, noise coming from above and below only to be told I'm a covidiot and moved along for getting out and daring to sit in the park. It is increasingly uncommon in this day and age to think beyond your own personal circumstances, so fair play to Charles Walker ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 hours ago, TexasRam said: The probability is low of someone my age and health getting seriously ill, so chances are I wouldn’t take up a bed. Hence when looking at it scientifically using a risk assessment model there is no need to keep us under restrictions until the <50 age group have been vaccinated. It’s not reasonably practical to stay with restrictions, the cost/damage/impact far out weighs the risks? This isn't really an analysis, this is just you kind of declaring it. The measure of keeping the R number below 1 works as it, by definition, requires that infection numbers plateau or decrease. People under 50 can and do still get seriously ill and die, and moreso, 100% vaccinated in the vulnerable group does not imply 100% immunity. The infection rates still need to be kept low to achieve the goal set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 37 minutes ago, Albert said: This isn't really an analysis, this is just you kind of declaring it. The measure of keeping the R number below 1 works as it, by definition, requires that infection numbers plateau or decrease. People under 50 can and do still get seriously ill and die, and moreso, 100% vaccinated in the vulnerable group does not imply 100% immunity. The infection rates still need to be kept low to achieve the goal set. Thanks I’ve been corrected now, I won’t post before asking you in future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Thanks I’ve been corrected now, I won’t post before asking you in future Not sure why you'd ask me as opposed to, you know, doing basic research and constructing your argument properly. It's interesting that you feel so incapable of mounting a counter that now your aim is just to make jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, Albert said: Not sure why you'd ask me as opposed to, you know, doing basic research and constructing your argument properly. It's interesting that you feel so incapable of mounting a counter that now your aim is just to make jokes. I don’t need to do a PHD study just to tick your boxes. I’m happy with my opinion and the basis for it, so that’s good enough for me. As Joking etc, I’m also quite a happy person, like to have a bit of fun and not trying to be the a expert. You should try it maybe, you’d enjoy life a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TexasRam said: I don’t need to do a PHD study just to tick your boxes. I’m happy with my opinion and the basis for it, so that’s good enough for me. As Joking etc, I’m also quite a happy person, like to have a bit of fun and not trying to be the a expert. You should try it maybe, you’d enjoy life a bit more. ...it's not a PhD study to put together a basic argument... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Albert said: ...it's not a PhD study to put together a basic argument... He has put together an argument, it just tends to be one that doesn't conform to your OPINION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Albert said: ...it's not a PhD study to put together a basic argument... I put my basic argument together based on my thoughts and opinions that are important to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 21 hours ago, Spanish said: that is a small phrase with a vast amount of interpretations, obesity is seen as an underlying condition and although it may result in early death there are other underlying conditions that may be more of a influence. In terms of official UK Covid statistics, "pre-existing health conditions" has been defined and is not open to interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just booked by vaccine slot for Wednesday night and one for 12 weeks later. Didn't offer me Babington Hospital which is 200m away from where I live but only got to go to Horsley Woodhouse. Hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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