Coronavirus

[maxjam]

Just now, BIllyD said:

Not directed at you pal ?

I know - just pointing out that there are several different angles going on with this discussion.

[Eddie]

3 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I have never said there is no risk.  

I have just argued that by the spring we should end lockdowns.  All vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated, the R rate will be well under 1 and the weather will be better - last summer the infection rate remained relatively low until the autumn by which time a significant proportion of the under 50s will have been vaccinated as well. 

Add three months to your 'all vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated' statement.

The vaccine requires two doses for maximum effectiveness.

[maxjam]

I thought higher as well but found this article the other day and tbh it made for easier maths!

The under 50s covid deaths account for less that 10% of annual flu deaths and by the Spring all of the over 50s will have been vaccinated (which as noted earlier in this thread has led to 100% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths). Add to that the other factors mentioned such as low R rate, warmer weather imo we should be opening everything back up.

[maxjam]

3 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Add three months to your 'all vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated' statement.

The vaccine requires two doses for maximum effectiveness.

Aren't the Govt saying this will be done by May?  My parents have just been for their first jab, they have their second scheduled for mid April. 

[Archied]

22 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

I don't know, not for me to decide. I'm just pointing out that to think this doesn't impact the under 50s is a myth.

Ok some middle ground here , I don’t think anybody is saying it doesn’t impact the under 50s ( i know I’m not ) but the question is how much and in what numbers , do they justify the measures forced on everyone ? I know you say it’s not for you to say on the number of deaths we accept but it can’t be avoided if you are to have an opinion on the issue of lockdowns and restrictions 

[Archied]

19 minutes ago, Sith Happens said:

that seems low to me,  I thought the average was closer to 20k?

 

That was my understanding too

[Spanish]

52 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

How many of these had no underlying health conditions?

that is a small phrase with a vast amount of interpretations, obesity is seen as an underlying condition and although it may result in early death there are other underlying conditions that may be more of a influence.  

[BIllyD]

6 minutes ago, Archied said:

Ok some middle ground here , I don’t think anybody is saying it doesn’t impact the under 50s ( i know I’m not ) but the question is how much and in what numbers , do they justify the measures forced on everyone ? I know you say it’s not for you to say on the number of deaths we accept but it can’t be avoided if you are to have an opinion on the issue of lockdowns and restrictions 

I've always said and will continue to do so, that's if it was down to me I'd lift the restrictions tomorrow. There is always going to be a risk based approach needed, the virus isn't going anywhere and as in flu etc...unfortunately it is going to results in deaths ?

However, my caveat is that lifting them must be done on the proviso that we don't end up in another lockdown, therefore the key stats must be taken into account before that call is taken. No point in assuming something will happen, been there done that, didn't work, therefore just because a group has been vaccinated for me shouldn't be the trigger to lift them. Imagine lifting then tomorrow and two months down the line we have a health service under extreme pressure again as the R number goes through the roof and those without the jab flood out hospitals. This then impacts everyone, vaccinated or not and we are looking down the barrel of another lockdown.

Numbers are tumbling, ICU is the only one slower than the others for obvious reasons, I fully expect based on trials, analysis, predictions etc...that come a couple of weeks time we will have enough information to let kids back into school early March and then soon after starting to open up the rest of the country. Until we have that confirmation though, I back the government's stance to wait, an extra couple of weeks isn't great I get that, but it is compared to another 6 months.

Unfortunately I understand this doesn't make me braveheart, it means I don't have any empathy for other people who have to live with these lockdowns (even though I do) but I just want to be 100% sure that we don't ever end up in another lockdown. 

[Gone]

49 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Add three months to your 'all vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated' statement.

The vaccine requires two doses for maximum effectiveness.

By June there is no reason at all for all Covid restrictions and rules to be be removed and never seen again. Roll on that time! 

[Archied]

13 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

I've always said and will continue to do so, that's if it was down to me I'd lift the restrictions tomorrow. There is always going to be a risk based approach needed, the virus isn't going anywhere and as in flu etc...unfortunately it is going to results in deaths ?

However, my caveat is that lifting them must be done on the proviso that we don't end up in another lockdown, therefore the key stats must be taken into account before that call is taken. No point in assuming something will happen, been there done that, didn't work, therefore just because a group has been vaccinated for me shouldn't be the trigger to lift them. Imagine lifting then tomorrow and two months down the line we have a health service under extreme pressure again as the R number goes through the roof and those without the jab flood out hospitals. This then impacts everyone, vaccinated or not and we are looking down the barrel of another lockdown.

Numbers are tumbling, ICU is the only one slower than the others for obvious reasons, I fully expect based on trials, analysis, predictions etc...that come a couple of weeks time we will have enough information to let kids back into school early March and then soon after starting to open up the rest of the country. Until we have that confirmation though, I back the government's stance to wait, an extra couple of weeks isn't great I get that, but it is compared to another 6 months.

Unfortunately I understand this doesn't make me braveheart, it means I don't have any empathy for other people who have to live with these lockdowns (even though I do) but I just want to be 100% sure that we don't ever end up in another lockdown. 

Yep I understand your opinion but you are already talking more lockdowns , they are not acceptable as the weapon of choice , I’m really not hearing much noise from government, scientists , modellers and the like about prioritising getting arses in gear to build our health service up to be able to cope and yes there may be some pain and a crossover point as this will not happen overnight but , ,vaccines, treatment and a health service built to cope have to be the target , no more lockdowns

[BIllyD]

2 minutes ago, Archied said:

Yep I understand your opinion but you are already talking more lockdowns , they are not acceptable as the weapon of choice , I’m really not hearing much noise from government, scientists , modellers and the like about prioritising getting arses in gear to build our health service up to be able to cope and yes there may be some pain and a crossover point as this will not happen overnight but , ,vaccines, treatment and a health service built to cope have to be the target , no more lockdowns

Where did I talk about implementing more lockdowns ? I talked about steps preventing more lockdowns, big difference. 
 

I can tell you that there is plenty of noise around making sure our health care system can cope, it's not a case of building then up, but once again making sure that we don't have future lockdowns.

[Eddie]

13 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

By June there is no reason at all for all Covid restrictions and rules to be be removed and never seen again. Roll on that time! 

I agree. 

My wife has her first jab tomorrow, so that's the first step as far as we are concerned. I'm still holding out hope that we can see some cricket this Spring.

[Gone]

4 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I agree. 

My wife has her first jab tomorrow, so that's the first step as far as we are concerned. I'm still holding out hope that we can see some cricket this Spring.

Let’s hope so Eddie ? 

[Spanish]

21 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

By June there is no reason at all for all Covid restrictions and rules to be be removed and never seen again. Roll on that time! 

another mutation that is more virulent?

[Spanish]

6 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I agree. 

My wife has her first jab tomorrow, so that's the first step as far as we are concerned. I'm still holding out hope that we can see some cricket this Spring.

had mine last week, I'm covered by Gib health but my wife is not

[GboroRam]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/world/europe/covid-uk-variant-deadlier.html?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

U.K. Virus Variant Is Probably Deadlier, Scientists Say

This is why we need to control the R rate. 

[Gone]

10 minutes ago, Spanish said:

another mutation that is more virulent?

So we stay like this just in case? I can’t see it myself, the vaccine producers are confident of adapting if we get another variant. A simple annual booster jab like the flu one should be enough. However I am sure the “Scientists” will come up with some horror stories of a deadlier variant to whip up the mass hysteria and keep them relevant . 

[Gone]

6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/world/europe/covid-uk-variant-deadlier.html?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

U.K. Virus Variant Is Probably Deadlier, Scientists Say

This is why we need to control the R rate. 

Ah and as if my magic, one appears ! 

[Spanish]

24 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

So we stay like this just in case? I can’t see it myself, the vaccine producers are confident of adapting if we get another variant. A simple annual booster jab like the flu one should be enough. However I am sure the “Scientists” will come up with some horror stories of a deadlier variant to whip up the mass hysteria and keep them relevant . 

my point was that you could see no reason for lifting the controls I merely gave one.  It is just as likely it will burn itself out, hope so

[Sith Happens]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

By June there is no reason at all for all Covid restrictions and rules to be be removed and never seen again. Roll on that time! 

let's hope so