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Still 5th


sage

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17 minutes ago, Kernow said:

Two wins & avoid defeat vs Boro and we'll be in the play-offs. Would be very nice if we could nail down one of those wins tomorrow night!

And the other one on Saturday!

Having said that 2 wins and a draw is only 75 points and too many teams can still beat that.

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1 minute ago, ram59 said:

And the other one on Saturday!

Having said that 2 wins and a draw is only 75 points and too many teams can still beat that.

They can beat it, yes, but every other team in contention only has four games left. We get to 75 points and that means two of the following will need to pick up x amount of points to be above us outright, we currently have a superior GD to all of them.

Millwall - 8 points

Boro - 10 points

Sheff Utd/Bristol City - 11 points

It's a huge ask for two of the teams to match those points tallies in just four games, especially considering that Millwall and Boro play each other meaning our two closest challengers would not be able to pick up maximum points. A Millwall win means Boro would not be able to hit 75 points, a Boro win would mean Millwall would have to win the other three - Sheff Utd, Fulham and Villa. 75 points will be more than enough, I think after looking at the fixtures 73 points would probably secure 6th, but that would take it right to the last game.

 

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52 minutes ago, ram59 said:

And the other one on Saturday!

Having said that 2 wins and a draw is only 75 points and too many teams can still beat that.

To be mathematically certain we need ten points from six games. Boro or Millwall can get 78 points but not both as they have to play each other. Obviously other favourable results could reduce that requirement.

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