ketteringram Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Oil is soaring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shang Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/03/david-cameron-syrians-rebuild Is Cameron trying to start another infrastructure boom in the middle east like China was? This will start selling the materials that currently aren't moving I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 yeah ok... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35493474 -2.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Neg interest rates before the end of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10375236 The above article was Osborne saying he was going to balance the books by 2016 (in 2010). What are we forecast to borrow this year? About £50billion ish. Looks like we're heading for recession by Q4 given the current trajectory so I expect the borrowing figures to worsen as the year goes on. But assuming borrowing £50billion while adding £40billion (I've presumed 2% real growth adjusted for inflation) to our national GDP. Negative return on debt... Carney can bring on neg. interest rates, I know I'll be doubling down on my short Sterling position if that happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It may be politically convenient to face recession in Q4, new president can claim his hands are tied, and the much heralded 'emergency brake' can be applied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 40 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10375236 The above article was Osborne saying he was going to balance the books by 2016 (in 2010). What are we forecast to borrow this year? About £50billion ish. Looks like we're heading for recession by Q4 given the current trajectory so I expect the borrowing figures to worsen as the year goes on. But assuming borrowing £50billion while adding £40billion (I've presumed 2% real growth adjusted for inflation) to our national GDP. Negative return on debt... Carney can bring on neg. interest rates, I know I'll be doubling down on my short Sterling position if that happens.. I've been heavily long gilts for 2 or more years in my pension pot expecting a market correction. To be fair it's worked out pretty good compared to equity funds, even more so of late, mainly because the market seems to be pricing in low growth. Try to only check every couple of months so as not to knee jerk a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 38 minutes ago, Zag zig said: I've been heavily long gilts for 2 or more years in my pension pot expecting a market correction. To be fair it's worked out pretty good compared to equity funds, even more so of late, mainly because the market seems to be pricing in low growth. Try to only check every couple of months so as not to knee jerk a change. I own a fair amount of gilts too...yes in the market context not bad. Not too surprising given CB's are the only game in town, that has to be the last domino to fall. Not far off an inversion in the U.S yield curve though, 5/5 as an indicator in last 5 recessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 1 hour ago, SillyBilly said: I own a fair amount of gilts too...yes in the market context not bad. Not too surprising given CB's are the only game in town, that has to be the last domino to fall. Not far off an inversion in the U.S yield curve though, 5/5 as an indicator in last 5 recessions. My logic for wealth preservation best I could in a pension pot. The irony of course is that being as it's my longest time frame portfolio, it has the greatest ease to smooth out volatility; yet my psychology of wanting to steadily build it, means less risk. Weird eh. An even bigger irony is i'm around 75% all in index-linked gilt market’s ( up from say 25% a few years back). By conventional standards they have had stellar returns around 20% last few years because the exceptionally long duration for them comes at a time when government bond yields have plummeted, where bond’s price are super sensitive to a change in yields. Effectively index-linked gilt funds have been on drugs compared to conventional gilt fund returns. Keep wondering if my next logical move will be to go to fixed interest cash once these collapse? Like I say perverse when time on my side, just hate to see gains eroded by risky asset investment when dominoes are falling everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I bet all your fancy investments don't give you Natwest piggy banks every few months though. NO?. I win!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 3 hours ago, Wolfie said: I bet all your fancy investments don't give you Natwest piggy banks every few months though. NO?. I win!. worth a few quid them piggies now especially if you have the set !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 LinkedIn 44% down on the day, that is one hell of a battering. Nasdaq beat up quite badly on the day. In other news, China has about 5 months (at current burn) before its reserves reach the critical level of 2.7 trillion dollars (figure touted by IMF) - the minimum insurance policy China should have against its increasingly unstable banking system. Its banking system has ballooned 1000% over 10 years to about 35 trillion dollars. So 1:10 cover as it stands. China is running out of ammunition for when this goes pop. Just 3% of those loans going bad is a trillion dollars! Italy has just had an effective bailout of its banks with NPLs (non-performing loans) at 20%...And there aren't ghost cities in Italy and property noone but government officials can afford! Yuan will be butchered when all is said and done. Guess Belgium will be buying up all the U.S debt again over the few months as China sells to support the Yuan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 11 hours ago, LesterRam said: worth a few quid them piggies now especially if you have the set !!! Plenty of Wade piggies on flEaBAY for 0.99p, full set £50 but can't see any bids. So I'd say naff all by the look. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Supposedly Chinese banks' non-performing loans (NPLs) are about 1.5% (gov figures as state owned banks). Even by Chinese standards that is optimistic! Considering a huge amount of debt is in Chinese steel, shipbuilding and property I think you can see where the IMF pull their figure from. And those reserves are being shed in excess of 100billion USD a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 10 hours ago, Zag zig said: Plenty of Wade piggies on flEaBAY for 0.99p, full set £50 but can't see any bids. So I'd say naff all by the look. Sorry. It's like all the people collecting 50p and £2 coins because they're worth £200 on ebay. Yeah, people are listing them but nobody is buying them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I saw these ickle piggies on bargain hunt for £200+, I don't really watch bargain hunt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 On 13/11/2015 at 19:33, SillyBilly said: On gold, my stock pick is: Barrick Gold - I suspect it'll be a 5 bagger in the next 5-10 years. AISC (all-in sustaining cost) of less than $900 and average reserve grade of 2.01 g/tonne (average peer grade 0.9 g/tonne). Loving its share price at the moment. It was 5 times this 4 years ago. I will go big in this at the first sniff of a real meltdown. Gold is in backwardation atm. My prediction is we'll have a test of lows in gold within the next 3-4 months and then a meteoric rise at the back end of 2016 into 2017. One more test for metals I think when this rally subsides before we're really heading for trouble. Barrick is my main gold stock and is up over 50% since I posted that which shows how quickly sentiment moves in these markets. Pan American Silver is currently where 60% of my silver allocation is. A solid company too IMV. Having a clean balance sheet and low costs is the key thing for me in these times. Also trying to convince myself to put my money where my mouth is and go short yuan now. Can't see how they can avoid a big devaluation, the Chinese don't have the firepower to protect it IMO? Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Any good news for the vast majority of people who work in shops and factories? It'd be nice to hear that the NHS is going to be saved and free Education is guaranteed. You know, important stuff that the people who actually contribute to this society need to know..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 9 hours ago, uttoxram75 said: Any good news for the vast majority of people who work in shops and factories? It'd be nice to hear that the NHS is going to be saved and free Education is guaranteed. You know, important stuff that the people who actually contribute to this society need to know..... I guess that comment is aimed at my earlier comment. I do try and strike a balance, if stock picks, currency positons etc. aren't appropriate here I will leave that stuff to other forums, fair enough. I am aware its not open to all. I will say though I don't work in finance and contribute a lot in a "normal job". Those things being saved are dependent on people understanding money creation and the banking system IMO, something posted a lot about in this thread. Once armed with information people can fight for whatever society they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 47 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: I guess that comment is aimed at my earlier comment. I do try and strike a balance, if stock picks, currency positons etc. aren't appropriate here I will leave that stuff to other forums, fair enough. I am aware its not open to all. I will say though I don't work in finance and contribute a lot in a "normal job". Those things being saved are dependent on people understanding money creation and the banking system IMO, something posted a lot about in this thread. Once armed with information people can fight for whatever society they want. Not aimed as a dig SB. I find your posts interesting and informative. My badly written (and slightly drunk) post was meant to ask a general question to any who understand the banking and finance system how do they see the next 10 years for ordinary working people in the UK. The current government is bringing in draconian anti-union laws despite the fact that the UK already has the strictest laws on union activities of any western democracy plus the lowest strike levels for 30 odd years. Is it just the Tory fear and hatred of organised labour or is it to curtail any rebellion for things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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